Budget 2018:
- A look at some of the details (from slide 3)
- The economic context and fiscal framework (from slide 14)
- Ireland’s public finances: where do we stand? (from slide 22)
CVS Surveyors- For the retail sector, the recently confirmed transitional relief scheme won’t actually provide any net relief, who so desperately need it. Mark Rigby, CEO of business rent and rates specialists CVS Surveyors, said;“The Treasury’s golden goose is getting even fatter following a £1bn windfall from last year’s business rates yield and what’s more, this year the yield is projected to be £0.6bn over budget.
Webinar: Council tax support Models that Members can sign up toPolicy in Practice
Listen back to hear Policy in Practice in conversation with Allan Clark, Barnet Council, to learn how they're changing their council tax support scheme for Universal Credit.
We cover how Policy in Practice's comprehensive impact modelling provided the data that Barnet Council's Members needed to agree amended schemes with confidence.
Listen back to learn:
- How LAs’ CTS schemes have evolved since they were first introduced
- What factors Barnet modelled, and why
- What schemes Barnet considered, rejected and implemented
For more information visit www.policyinpractice.co.uk, email hello@policyinpractice.co.uk or call 0330 088 9242.
OECD webinar: Better design of taxes on personal savings and wealth to suppor...OECDtax
Taxes are among the most effective tools governments have for reducing inequalities and bringing about more inclusive growth. Two new OECD reports released on 12 April 2018 assess how governments are using the taxation of personal savings and wealth and offer recommendations for more effective and more efficient tax policy.
OECD’s head of Tax Policy and Statistics David Bradbury, Senior Tax Economist Alastair Thomas and Tax Economist Sarah Perret presented the findings and answered questions.
CVS Surveyors- For the retail sector, the recently confirmed transitional relief scheme won’t actually provide any net relief, who so desperately need it. Mark Rigby, CEO of business rent and rates specialists CVS Surveyors, said;“The Treasury’s golden goose is getting even fatter following a £1bn windfall from last year’s business rates yield and what’s more, this year the yield is projected to be £0.6bn over budget.
Webinar: Council tax support Models that Members can sign up toPolicy in Practice
Listen back to hear Policy in Practice in conversation with Allan Clark, Barnet Council, to learn how they're changing their council tax support scheme for Universal Credit.
We cover how Policy in Practice's comprehensive impact modelling provided the data that Barnet Council's Members needed to agree amended schemes with confidence.
Listen back to learn:
- How LAs’ CTS schemes have evolved since they were first introduced
- What factors Barnet modelled, and why
- What schemes Barnet considered, rejected and implemented
For more information visit www.policyinpractice.co.uk, email hello@policyinpractice.co.uk or call 0330 088 9242.
OECD webinar: Better design of taxes on personal savings and wealth to suppor...OECDtax
Taxes are among the most effective tools governments have for reducing inequalities and bringing about more inclusive growth. Two new OECD reports released on 12 April 2018 assess how governments are using the taxation of personal savings and wealth and offer recommendations for more effective and more efficient tax policy.
OECD’s head of Tax Policy and Statistics David Bradbury, Senior Tax Economist Alastair Thomas and Tax Economist Sarah Perret presented the findings and answered questions.
On Friday, 16 October 2020, ESRI researchers, Barra Roantree, Karina Doorley and Claire Keane presented an assessment of the likely economic effects and impact on households of the tax and welfare measures announced in Budget 2021.
They will also examined the impact that COVID has had on incomes in Ireland and the role the tax-benefit system has played in cushioning income losses relating to the pandemic to date.
A video of the presentation will be made available shortly.
With a number of recent and upcoming developments in the OECD’s international tax agenda, we invite you to join a live webinar with experts from the Centre for Tax Policy and Administration for an update on our work in the context of the COVID-19 crisis.
Website: http://oe.cd/taxtalks
Revenue Statistics in Asian and Pacific economies 2020OECDtax
Revenue Statistics in Asian and Pacific Economies is jointly produced by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)’s Centre for Tax Policy and Administration (CTP) and the OECD Development Centre (DEV) with the co-operation of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the Pacific Island Tax Administrators Association (PITAA), and the Pacific Community (SPC) and the financial support from the governments of Ireland, Japan, Luxembourg, Norway, Sweden and the United Kingdom. This edition includes a special feature on the tax policy and administration responses to COVID-19 in Asian and Pacific Economies.
Presentation slides from the Changing Face of SMSF Webinar, presented by Aaron Dunn of The SMSF Academy on 23 May 2013, looking at the latest technical and regulatory issues impacting self managed super funds.
Responding to the latest economic forecasts from the office for Budget Responsibility, Mr Hammond revealed that the economy is expected to grow at the slightly faster rate of 1.5% in 2018, compared with the 1.4% forecast in the Autumn Budget.
How does George Osborne's latest Budget affect you?
Gemini have produced this handy summary to outline the main changes discussed in the House of Commons on 20th March 2013.
On Friday 21 May 2021, the ESRI hosted the webinar 'Options for raising tax revenue in Ireland'
ESRI researchers, Theano Kakoulidou and Barra Roantree, presented key findings from the report of the same name. Research found that increases in taxes on income, consumption and property may be needed to fund future public spending.
Read the publication here: https://www.esri.ie/publications/options-for-raising-tax-revenue-in-ireland
On Friday, 16 October 2020, ESRI researchers, Barra Roantree, Karina Doorley and Claire Keane presented an assessment of the likely economic effects and impact on households of the tax and welfare measures announced in Budget 2021.
They will also examined the impact that COVID has had on incomes in Ireland and the role the tax-benefit system has played in cushioning income losses relating to the pandemic to date.
A video of the presentation will be made available shortly.
With a number of recent and upcoming developments in the OECD’s international tax agenda, we invite you to join a live webinar with experts from the Centre for Tax Policy and Administration for an update on our work in the context of the COVID-19 crisis.
Website: http://oe.cd/taxtalks
Revenue Statistics in Asian and Pacific economies 2020OECDtax
Revenue Statistics in Asian and Pacific Economies is jointly produced by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)’s Centre for Tax Policy and Administration (CTP) and the OECD Development Centre (DEV) with the co-operation of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the Pacific Island Tax Administrators Association (PITAA), and the Pacific Community (SPC) and the financial support from the governments of Ireland, Japan, Luxembourg, Norway, Sweden and the United Kingdom. This edition includes a special feature on the tax policy and administration responses to COVID-19 in Asian and Pacific Economies.
Presentation slides from the Changing Face of SMSF Webinar, presented by Aaron Dunn of The SMSF Academy on 23 May 2013, looking at the latest technical and regulatory issues impacting self managed super funds.
Responding to the latest economic forecasts from the office for Budget Responsibility, Mr Hammond revealed that the economy is expected to grow at the slightly faster rate of 1.5% in 2018, compared with the 1.4% forecast in the Autumn Budget.
How does George Osborne's latest Budget affect you?
Gemini have produced this handy summary to outline the main changes discussed in the House of Commons on 20th March 2013.
On Friday 21 May 2021, the ESRI hosted the webinar 'Options for raising tax revenue in Ireland'
ESRI researchers, Theano Kakoulidou and Barra Roantree, presented key findings from the report of the same name. Research found that increases in taxes on income, consumption and property may be needed to fund future public spending.
Read the publication here: https://www.esri.ie/publications/options-for-raising-tax-revenue-in-ireland
Για τρίτη συνεχή χρονιά, ο Κύκλος ιδεών για την Εθνική Ανασυγκρότηση,
σε συνεργασία με τη Συμεών Γ. Τσομώκος Α.Ε., πραγματοποιούν το ετήσιο διήμερο συνέδριο H ΕΛΛΑΔΑ ΜΕΤΑ
στις 19 και 20 Ιουνίου 2019
στο ξενοδοχείο Divani Caravel.
Κεντρικό θέμα στο φετινό συνέδριο είναι: Η ανασύσταση της μεσαίας τάξης
Κύκλος ΙΙ: Οι επιπτώσεις της περιόδου 2009- 2019 στη μεσαία τάξη
https://ekyklos.gr/19-20-iouniou-ellada-meta-iii-i-anasystasi-tis-mesaias-taksis.html
This document has been prepared by the Finance Team of SED for information purpose only of its members residing both in Bangladesh and abroad, on the basis of the publicly available information in the market and own research. This document is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country, or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation . The information and data presented herein are the exclusive property of SED and any unauthorized reproduction or redistribution of the same is strictly prohibited . No part of this report should be copied or used in any other report or publication or anything of that sort without proper credit given or prior written permission taken from the authorized publisher of this report . This disclaimer applies to the report irrespective of being used in whole or in part .
Reducing debt and borrowing is essential to controlling inflation, keeping mortgage rates affordable and funding public services sustainably. After accounting for decisions at the Autumn Statement, borrowing is forecast to be lower this year, next year and on average over the forecast period compared to the OBR’s March forecast. Underlying debt is also lower as a percentage of GDP, by an average of 2.1 percentage points across the forecast.
Slides from the Nevin Economic Research Institute's post Budget seminar. Speakers Michelle Murphy (Social Justice Ireland), Cormac Staunton (TASC) and Michael Taft (UNITE)
Empowering the Unbanked: The Vital Role of NBFCs in Promoting Financial Inclu...Vighnesh Shashtri
In India, financial inclusion remains a critical challenge, with a significant portion of the population still unbanked. Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) have emerged as key players in bridging this gap by providing financial services to those often overlooked by traditional banking institutions. This article delves into how NBFCs are fostering financial inclusion and empowering the unbanked.
Even tho Pi network is not listed on any exchange yet.
Buying/Selling or investing in pi network coins is highly possible through the help of vendors. You can buy from vendors[ buy directly from the pi network miners and resell it]. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins effectively (from 50 - 100k pi)DOT TECH
Anywhere in the world, including Africa, America, and Europe, you can sell Pi Network Coins online and receive cash through online payment options.
Pi has not yet been launched on any exchange because we are currently using the confined Mainnet. The planned launch date for Pi is June 28, 2026.
Reselling to investors who want to hold until the mainnet launch in 2026 is currently the sole way to sell.
Consequently, right now. All you need to do is select the right pi network provider.
Who is a pi merchant?
An individual who buys coins from miners on the pi network and resells them to investors hoping to hang onto them until the mainnet is launched is known as a pi merchant.
debuts.
I'll provide you the Telegram username
@Pi_vendor_247
Introduction to Indian Financial System ()Avanish Goel
The financial system of a country is an important tool for economic development of the country, as it helps in creation of wealth by linking savings with investments.
It facilitates the flow of funds form the households (savers) to business firms (investors) to aid in wealth creation and development of both the parties
what is the best method to sell pi coins in 2024DOT TECH
The best way to sell your pi coins safely is trading with an exchange..but since pi is not launched in any exchange, and second option is through a VERIFIED pi merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and pioneers and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive amounts before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade pi coins with.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network coins in South Korea or any other country, by finding a verified pi merchant
What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the telegram id of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Tele gram: @Pi_vendor_247
#pi #sell #nigeria #pinetwork #picoins #sellpi #Nigerian #tradepi #pinetworkcoins #sellmypi
what is the future of Pi Network currency.DOT TECH
The future of the Pi cryptocurrency is uncertain, and its success will depend on several factors. Pi is a relatively new cryptocurrency that aims to be user-friendly and accessible to a wide audience. Here are a few key considerations for its future:
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram if u want to sell PI COINS.
1. Mainnet Launch: As of my last knowledge update in January 2022, Pi was still in the testnet phase. Its success will depend on a successful transition to a mainnet, where actual transactions can take place.
2. User Adoption: Pi's success will be closely tied to user adoption. The more users who join the network and actively participate, the stronger the ecosystem can become.
3. Utility and Use Cases: For a cryptocurrency to thrive, it must offer utility and practical use cases. The Pi team has talked about various applications, including peer-to-peer transactions, smart contracts, and more. The development and implementation of these features will be essential.
4. Regulatory Environment: The regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies is evolving globally. How Pi navigates and complies with regulations in various jurisdictions will significantly impact its future.
5. Technology Development: The Pi network must continue to develop and improve its technology, security, and scalability to compete with established cryptocurrencies.
6. Community Engagement: The Pi community plays a critical role in its future. Engaged users can help build trust and grow the network.
7. Monetization and Sustainability: The Pi team's monetization strategy, such as fees, partnerships, or other revenue sources, will affect its long-term sustainability.
It's essential to approach Pi or any new cryptocurrency with caution and conduct due diligence. Cryptocurrency investments involve risks, and potential rewards can be uncertain. The success and future of Pi will depend on the collective efforts of its team, community, and the broader cryptocurrency market dynamics. It's advisable to stay updated on Pi's development and follow any updates from the official Pi Network website or announcements from the team.
how to sell pi coins in all Africa Countries.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network for other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, usdt , Ethereum and other currencies And this is done easily with the help from a pi merchant.
What is a pi merchant ?
Since pi is not launched yet in any exchange. The only way you can sell right now is through merchants.
A verified Pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins from miners and resell them to investors looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
The secret way to sell pi coins effortlessly.DOT TECH
Well as we all know pi isn't launched yet. But you can still sell your pi coins effortlessly because some whales in China are interested in holding massive pi coins. And they are willing to pay good money for it. If you are interested in selling I will leave a contact for you. Just telegram this number below. I sold about 3000 pi coins to him and he paid me immediately.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview.pptxmarketing367770
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview
If you're dreaming of owning a home in California's rural or suburban areas, a USDA loan might be the perfect solution. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers these loans to help low-to-moderate-income individuals and families achieve homeownership.
Key Features of USDA Loans:
Zero Down Payment: USDA loans require no down payment, making homeownership more accessible.
Competitive Interest Rates: These loans often come with lower interest rates compared to conventional loans.
Flexible Credit Requirements: USDA loans have more lenient credit score requirements, helping those with less-than-perfect credit.
Guaranteed Loan Program: The USDA guarantees a portion of the loan, reducing risk for lenders and expanding borrowing options.
Eligibility Criteria:
Location: The property must be located in a USDA-designated rural or suburban area. Many areas in California qualify.
Income Limits: Applicants must meet income guidelines, which vary by region and household size.
Primary Residence: The home must be used as the borrower's primary residence.
Application Process:
Find a USDA-Approved Lender: Not all lenders offer USDA loans, so it's essential to choose one approved by the USDA.
Pre-Qualification: Determine your eligibility and the amount you can borrow.
Property Search: Look for properties in eligible rural or suburban areas.
Loan Application: Submit your application, including financial and personal information.
Processing and Approval: The lender and USDA will review your application. If approved, you can proceed to closing.
USDA loans are an excellent option for those looking to buy a home in California's rural and suburban areas. With no down payment and flexible requirements, these loans make homeownership more attainable for many families. Explore your eligibility today and take the first step toward owning your dream home.
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview.pptx
A Post-Budget 2018 Analysis of the Irish Public Finances
1. The Irish Public Finances:
A Post-Budget 2018 Overview
Simon Barry
Chief Economist Republic of Ireland
Ricardo Amaro
Economist
October 2017
2. Slide 2
Contents
Budget 2018: A look at some of the details (from slide 3)
The economic context and fiscal framework (from slide 14)
Ireland’s public finances: where do we stand? (from slide 22)
4. Slide 4
Budget 2018 sets out the planned use of Eur1.2bn of fiscal space for next
year…
• The July Government Summer Economic Statement (SES) identified net fiscal
space of €1.2bn for Budget 2018
• However, after allowing for:
• Demographics
• Carryovers from Budget 2017
• The Action Plan for Housing
• Extension of the Lansdowne Road Agreement on public sector pay (€0.18bn)
• Only ca. €0.35bn remained to be allocated for 2018 in today’s budget
• Additional revenue-raising measures announced in the budget have amounted to
€0.83bn
• Resulting in additional Budget Day tax and spending easing measures totalling
ca. €1.2bn
5. Slide 5
…incorporating ca. €0.9 bn of extra spending measures and €0.3bn in tax
reductions. Extra spending was split roughly in 3:1 in favour of current over
capital spending
Budget 2018 Package €mn
Resources available from fiscal space 350
Additional revenue measures 830
Total package 1180
Used to fund:
Tax reductions 335
Extra current spending 684
Extra capital spending 214
Source: Department of Finance
6. Slide 6
The €830mn package of revenue raising measures was headlined by the stamp
duty hike on commercial property transactions
• Property sector related:
• Stamp duty (€376 mn increase in revenue in 2018): Change of rate on non-residential
property transactions from 2% to 6% (though industry sources are casting doubt over the
projected tax yield from this measure) ; Importantly, commercial property land purchased for
the development of housing will benefit from a stamp duty refund scheme
• Mortgage interest relief (€ 51 mn increase in revenue in 2018): tapered extension of
mortgage interest relief for remaining recipients. 75% of the existing 2017 relief will be
continued into 2018, 50% into 2019 and 25% into 2020. The relief will cease entirely from
2021 onwards
• Vacant site levy will go up from 3% to 7% for land not developed by end-2019 (and held
vacant at the moment) – payable from 2020
• Corporation tax (€ 150 mn increase in revenue in 2018): Mr. Donohoe in today’s speech
recognized the importance of corporation tax stability and assured that the 12.5% will remain part
of Ireland’s offering. However, deduction for capital allowances for intangible assets were limited
to 80% of the relevant income arising from the intangible asset in an accounting period
• Tabaco products tax (€ 64 mn increase in revenue in 2018): excise duty on a packet of
cigarettes increases 50c (including VAT), with a pro-rata increase on all other tobacco products
• Sugar tax (€ 30 mn increase in revenue in 2018): a tax on sugar sweetened beverages is to be
introduced on 1 April 2018
• NB: No changes to tax on alcohol, petrol or diesel
7. Slide 7
Taxation reductions of €335 mn were dominated by USC and Income Tax cuts
• Universal Social Charge (€177 mn cost in 2018):
• The 2.5% rate has been reduced to 2% and the ceiling increased by €600 to €19,372 (previously
18,772) ensuring that a full-time worker on the minimum wage will remain outside the top rates of
USC
• The 5% rate has been reduced to 4.75%
• USC cuts are again highly progressive in nature, targeting income benefits at lower and middle
income earners: the largest % gains accrue to those on lowest incomes, and the % gains trail off at
upper income levels (in excess of €70k) – see tables on next slides
• Income Tax (Eur132 mn cost in 2018): An increase of €750 in the income tax standard rate band for all
earners, from €33,800 to €34,550 for single individuals and from €42,800 to €43,550 for married one
earner couples
• Tax Credits (Eur24 mn cost in 2018)
• An increase in the Home Carer Tax Credit from €1,100 to €1,200
• An increase in the Self-Employed Earned Income Credit from €950 to €1,150
8. Net gains from USC and income tax cuts again skewed towards lower incomes,
while some workers will also benefit in 2018 from increases to the minimum wage
Slide 8
Eur per Year % of Net Income Eur per Year % of Net Income
Gross Income
12000* 389 3.2 493 2.1
14000* 455 3.3 507 2.1
18000* 319 1.8 488 1.9
20,000 53 0.3 313 1.2
25,000 66 0.3 326 1.1
30,000 78 0.3 338 1.1
35,000 241 0.8 191 0.6
45,000 266 0.8 366 1.0
55,000 291 0.7 391 0.9
70,000 328 0.7 428 0.8
100,000 328 0.5 428 0.7
150,000 328 0.4 428 0.5
175,000 328 0.3 428 0.4
Note: assumes private sector employee taxed under PAYE, full-rate PRSI contributor
Also assumes that employees currently earning less than €18,759 p.a. earn all their income at the minimum wage, and therefore
benefit from an incease of 3.24% in their gross income (as announced prior to Budget 2018)
Single Person Married Couple, one income, 2 kids*
Decline in Combined Income Tax, PRSI and USC, % of Net Income
9. The strong progressivity of the tax system is also highlighted by the levels of
average tax rates, and the (pre and post crisis) trends therein
Slide 9
Married Couple, 1 Income, 2 Children, Private Sector
Gross Income
Increase from
2008-2014
Decline since
2014 high
point
2018 Rate
15,000 2.7 -1.9 0.8
20,000 4.9 -4.1 3.5
25,000 5.4 -2.4 5.9
30,000 4.4 -3.1 6.4
40,000 5.5 -3.3 11.6
60,000 6.8 -3.8 22.8
100,000 7.6 -2.6 34.2
120,000 7.7 -2.2 37.1
Average Tax Rate (%)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Average Tax Rates, %
Married Couple, 1 Income 2 Children
30,000 60,000 100,000
10. Slide 10
Other, albeit much smaller, elements of the tax package will
benefit a range of sectors / areas of the economy
• Tourism: The retention of the reduced 9% VAT rate on tourism-related activities which should further
support the on-going expansion in the hospitality sector and help it deal with Brexit risks and challenges
• Housing / Construction / Rental Sector :
• New housing finance initiative called Home Building Finance Ireland that will increase the availability of debt funding
terms to commercially viable residential development projects whose land owners want to build homes
• Owners bringing vacant residential property to the rental market will benefit from a deduction for pre-letting expenses
of a revenue nature incurred on a property that has been vacant for a period of 12 months or more (cap on allowable
expenses of €5,000 per property will apply)
• Qualifying property assets brought between 2012-2014 may be sold free of CGT after a minimum holding period of 4
years (previously 7 years)
• SMEs:
• New Brexit-focussed loan scheme of up to €300mn available at a competitive rate to SMEs, including food
businesses to help them with short-term working capital needs
• Introduction of a share-based remuneration incentive to facilitate the use of share-based remuneration by unquoted
SME companies to attract key employees
• The Agri / Food / Fishery sector:
• In addition to the Brexit loan scheme for SMEs, a further scheme of €25mn will be targeted at the agrifood sector
• Maintenance of the consanguinity stamp duty relief at 1% for inter-family farm transfers
• Leasing of agricultural land for solar panels to be classified qualifying agriculture activity for specific taxation purposes
• Charities will benefit from a VAT refund scheme being introduced to compensate for the VAT they occur on
their inputs. The scheme will be introduced in 2019 in respect of VAT expenses incurred in 2018
• Electric vehicles will benefit from a 0% benefit-in-kind (BIK) rate for a period of 1 year
11. Slide 11
Spending overview: over half of the Budget spending package is allocated to
Social Protection and Health
Budget 2018, Allocation of Additional Spending
Eur m %
Social Protection 343 38
Health 235 26
Education and Skills 104 11
Housing 102 11
Children 52 6
Other, incl. misc offsets -146 -16
=
Total Current Expenditure Measures 690 76
+
Total Capital Expenditure Measures 215 24
=
Total 905 100
Source: Dept. of Finance
12. Slide 12
Spending overview: over half of the Budget spending package is allocated to
Social Protection and Health
• Social Protection package includes:
• Weekly rise of €5 in all social welfare payments, including disability allowance, carer’s allowance and both
jobseeker's allowance and benefit
• Weekly increase of €20 in the earnings disregard for the One Parent Family Payment and Jobseeker's
Transitional Scheme
• Weekly increase of €2 in the weekly rate of the qualified child payment
• Health allocation provides for a range of measures, including:
• An additional 1,800 staff aimed at a range of frontline services
• Waiting List Initiative
• Extension of Medical Card Eligibility
• Reduction in the threshold (from €144 to 134) for the drugs payment scheme
• Other prominent measures include:
• Education measures include additional guidance and Special Needs posts as well as primary schools reduction
in pupils-teacher ratio. Additional funding for Higher Education and Apprenticeship and Traineeship through the
National Training Fund is also envisaged.
• Early Years Care and Education extended in Sept 2018 from current average entitlement of 61 weeks to 76
weeks for all qualifying children and increase capitation by 7%
• Extra Justice funding will provide for the accelerated recruitment of an additional 800 Gardai and up to 500
civilian staff
13. Slide 13
Regarding Housing, it is not fully clear exactly what new and additional resources have been made available in
the Budget. In any case, we welcome the government’s apparent increased ambition in relation to direct social
home building, but rapid scaling-up of delivery from very depressed levels is urgently needed
15. Slide 15
A range of indicators, notably including employment, point to an economy
which continues to perform very well
Economic Activity Metrics, % y/y growth
y/y year to date (Q2 unless otherwise stated)
Core Retail Sales 6.6
GDP 5.5
Modified Final Domestic Demand (MDD) 5.1
Tax Receipts (nominal) 5.4
Employment 2.9
GNP 2.6
1) Variables above in real terms unless otherwise stated
2) Core retail sales are year to August
3) Modified Final Domestic Demand includes Private and Govt. Consumption,
and Investment less aircraft leasing and R&D imports
4) Tax receipts are year to Sept
16. Slide 16
Solid improvement in the economy has seen the tax take rise by 5.4% in the year to
September (albeit that tax revenue is running slightly below target in 2017, a context
not as favourable as in the previous three years)
End-Sept End-Sept Excess/ Excess/
Actual €m Target €m Shortfall €m Shortfall %
Income Tax 13,605 13,793 -188 -1.4%
VAT 11,018 11,055 -36 -0.3%
Corporation Tax 4,670 4,501 169 3.8%
Excise duties 4,216 4,332 -116 -2.7%
Stamp duties 726 823 -98 -11.9%
Capital gains tax 192 157 35 22.2%
Capital acquisitions tax 165 160 6 3.5%
Customs 244 258 -15 -5.7%
Levies 0 0 0 0.0%
Local Property Tax 362 350 12 3.3%
Unallocated Tax Deposits 19 0 19 -
Total 35,217 35,429 -212 -0.6%
Total Excess in Sept '16 483
Total Excess in Sept '15 1,740
Total Excess in Sept '14 703
Source: Department of Finance
Tax Revenue Performance vs. Profile (cumulative)
17. The forecasts underpinning the Budget look reasonable, and have been endorsed by IFAC (Irish Fiscal Advisory
Council). The outlook remains broadly favourable and is looking a bit stronger in the near-term than was
projected by last year’s Budget
Slide 17
Budget 2017 SPU 2017* Budget 2018
October 2016 April 2017 October 2017
2016 4.2 5.2 5.1
2017 3.5 4.3 4.3
2018 3.4 3.7 3.5
2019 3.2 3.1 3.2
*Stability Programme Update 2017
Real GDP % Growth
18. Slide 18
Since the elimination of its Excessive Deficit in 2015, Ireland has
been subject to the ‘preventive’ arm of the SGP
• This means Irish budgetary policy is set to satisfy conditions laid out in Ireland’s
relatively new budgetary framework which incorporates European and Domestic
elements (rather than having to deliver a required headline deficit target e.g. the
3% deficit target which was the aim under the ‘corrective’ arm of the SGP)
• The new framework is aimed at avoiding:
• repeat of past mistakes
• pro-cyclicality in good times
• spending growth in excess of the economy’s potential growth rate
• large, forced adjustments in bad times
• negative fiscal spillovers across countries
19. Slide 19
The Medium-Term Objective (MTO) is the key anchor for fiscal policy…
• Ireland, like other countries in Europe, is subject to a Medium-Term Objective (MTO)
• Ireland’s MTO is to achieve a small budget deficit of 0.5% in structural terms
• The Structural Budget Balance (SBB) is the balance adjusted for the cyclical position of the
economy and the impact of any one-offs; in other words the balance that would prevail if the
economy was operating at its full capacity
• In normal economic times, an annual improvement in the SBB of 0.6% of GDP or more must be
delivered until the MTO is reached
20. Slide 20
…and is complimented by the application of the Expenditure
Benchmark
• The Expenditure Benchmark (EB) is a complimentary requirement, which sets a
limit on allowable expenditure growth after accounting for any discretionary revenue
measures:
• If not at the MTO (as is the case currently in Ireland), allowable spending growth is reduced to a level
below an estimate of long-run potential GDP growth to ensure progress towards MTO. For 2018,
permitted spending growth for Ireland is 2.5% - some way lower than the 4.8% ‘reference rate’ of
potential GDP growth in nominal terms.
• If at or deemed to exceed the MTO, compliance with the EB is, in theory, no longer assessed
• However, in practice, it is our understanding that once a balanced budget is achieved (i.e. once the
MTO is reached), the Govt will continue to use the EB to determine maximum permissible spending
growth.
• This would see a step up in allowable spending growth relative to recent years when it has been
explicitly suppressed to ensure convergence to MTO. But spending growth would still be capped at the
trend economic growth rate, as measured by the EB framework.
• NB: Estimating structural balances and trend / potential growth rates (especially for small, open economies like Ireland) can be highly
problematic and the EB calculation is complex so implementing this framework is not straightforward. Work is ongoing in an attempt to improve
the methodology as it applies in the Irish case.
21. Slide 21
Budget 2018: rule compliance and balancing the books
• IFAC’s Fiscal Assessment Report from June of this year highlighted that after a major fiscal
adjustment effort over 2008-14, “Ireland has shown a minimalist approach to compliance with the
fiscal rules in the first two years of the new budgetary framework” (i.e. 2016 & 2017)
• Ireland’s estimated SBB in 2017 is a deficit of 1.2% of GDP and a deficit of 0.5% in 2018, meaning
that:
• The planned improvement of 0.7% points would achieve compliance with the required SBB
adjustment of 0.6%
• And more importantly, the MTO is expected to be reached in 2018 i.e. the books are set to be
balanced next year (in structural terms)
• The relevant spending aggregate is expected to grow by 2.3% - less than the 2.5% allowed meaning
that compliance with the EB is also (just about) expected next year
• So the Government may be fully rule-compliant in 2018 for the first time since entering the preventive
arm in 2016, though the EB compliance margin (€100m) is very slim
• NB: achieving the MTO in 2018 results in a significant step-up in allowable spending growth from
2019 on under the EB i.e. estimated annual fiscal space increases materially from 2019 on
23. Slide 23
Returning the budget position to balance (expected by 2020 in headline terms) is a
remarkable achievement given the extent of the deficit blow-out in the crisis…
26. After a 65% collapse from peak in government capital spending, the increased
allocations to capex spending over the past three years are very welcome…
Slide 26
27. …as capital spending is now picking up meaningfully, albeit from an extremely low
base
Slide 27
28. The planned increases in govt capex would take Ireland’s spend (relative to revenue)
back up to relatively elevated levels by international standards
Slide 28
29. Slide 29
Recurrent and sizeable MNC-related distortions to GDP reduce the usefulness of the
debt-to-GDP ratio; other metrics of Ireland’s debt position, such as the debt-to-GNI*and
debt-to-revenue show debt remains uncomfortably high, albeit rapidly declining
30. Slide 30
…the debt servicing burden also continues to decline, helped by the ongoing
improvement in growth and revenue trends…
31. Slide 31
…while lower interest rates also help greatly to cushion the impact of higher
debt, and are a critical source of difference between now and the 1980s…
32. … with favourable international developments (including the ECB’s QE programme) combining with firm belief
in the robustness of Ireland’s creditworthiness keeping Irish sovereign borrowing costs close to all-time record
lows; Ireland’s 10-year Government yields are now below France’s, while the spread against Germany is at
post-crisis lows
Slide 32
33. Slide 33
…allowing the NTMA to raise around €15bn of term funding this year at
extraordinarily low costs including €4.75bn of 5-year borrowing at negative rates
Jan Sale of new 20-year benchamark bond @ 1.73% 4
Feb Sale of bonds maturing in 2022 (@ 0.09%) and 2026 (@ 1.03%) 1.25
Mar Sale of bonds maturing in 2026 (@ 1.05%) and 2045 (@ 2.19%) 1.25
Apr Sale of bonds maturing in 2023 (@ 0.2%) and 2026 (@ 0.94%) 1.25
Apr Sale of inflation-linked 23-year bond - annual coupon at @ 0.25% 0.6
Jun Sale of bonds maturing in 2026 (@ 0.72%) and 2045 (@ 1.92%) 1
Jul Sale of bonds maturing in 2022 (@ -0.01%) and 2045 (@ 1.95%) 0.75
Sep Sale of bonds maturing in 2026 (@ 0.59%) and 2037 (@ 1.65%) 1
Oct Sale of new 5-year benchmark bond @ -0.01% 4
Source: NTMA, Bloomberg, UB
Key NTMA Funding Activity, 2017 ytd (Eur bn)
34. Slide 34
…and in the process further improving the average maturity of Ireland’s debt stock -
Ireland’s government debt now has an average maturity of over 10 years meaning
that Ireland also compares favourably to other European countries
Source: NTMA, ECB
Maturity Profile of Government Debt
35. Slide 35
Upgrades to Ireland’s sovereign rating continue with the latest development on this front last
month’s upgrade from Moody’s to A2 (equivalent to A)
AAA
AA+
AA
AA-
A+
A
A-
BBB+
BBB
BBB-
BB+
BB
Irish Sovereign Credit Ratings
S&P Moody's Fitch
InvestmentGrade
Sub-investment Grade
(Junk)
36. Slide 36
Debt levels look set to continue to decline into the medium-term, but
sustainability remains vulnerable to shocks…
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Baseline (% Revenue)
Scenario (% Revenue)
Debt as % of Gen Govt Revenue: Illustrative Growth Shock Scenario from 2019 Onwards
Source: IFAC
Note: The scenario shows the debt ratio path for an illustrative shock equivalent to a typical
forecast error on nominal GDP growth (-2pp relative to baseline growth rates) in each of the
years 2019, 2020 and 2021
37. Slide 37Slide 37
…and downside risks; while there are some notable upside risks (e.g. related to
construction) the balance of risks over the medium term is skewed to the downside,
even aside from Brexit…
• Domestic Risks
• Property market developments
• Competitiveness / expectations management
• High debt
• Politics
• International Risks
• Brexit
• Euro area macro-financial developments and policy settings
• Emerging Market slowdown
• Global financial (markets) stability
• FDI climate / international tax policy changes
• Politics / Geopolitics:
• Economic and diplomatic policy choices of new Trump administration in the US
• Various upcoming European votes (Germany, Italy…)
• North Korea
38. Slide 38Slide 38
…though a number of helpful mitigants are in play
• The Irish economy’s strong pre-Brexit momentum offers a very helpful buffer against any shock,
including Brexit.
• A range of indicators show that Ireland’s overall macrofinancial vulnerability is much-reduced
reflecting the large-scale rebalancing and restructuring of the economy in the aftermath of the financial
crisis e.g. the public finances are back on a sustainable course following the major, multi-year
discretionary fiscal tightening which completed in 2014, while the overhaul of the fiscal framework (incl.
new fiscal rules, IFAC oversight and scrutiny) offers important safeguards against the possibility of a
repeat of past policy mistakes; the banking sector has been restructured and significantly down-sized; the
new macroprudential policy framework will help to contain the risk of credit-fuelled imbalances in the
housing market
• The UK-centric nature of the Brexit shock points to the likelihood of a relatively modest negative
impact on growth prospects in Ireland’s other key trading partners including the euro zone and US
with which Ireland does three times more export trade in aggregate than it does with the UK.
• There are opportunities for Ireland to secure additional FDI (possibly including in the financial and
other services sectors) from investors seeking a business-friendly, English-speaking base from which to
serve the EU market now that the UK will be leaving
39. Slide 39
While the Budget didn’t contain refreshed estimates of future fiscal space, the estimates from the Summer
Economic Statement highlight the significant uplift in available resources which is set to take hold from 2019 (i.e.
after the MTO is reached)
Indicative Net Fiscal Space, Eur bn
2018 2019 2020 2021
Summer Economic Statement 1.2 3.2 3.4 3.4
Source: Department of Finance
40. Slide 40
But approaching macroeconomic capacity constraints coupled with a downside risk skew to the medium term outlook argue for
greater prudence than has been evident in the past two years – rule compliance may well be insufficient to deliver an appropriate
or sufficiently prudent fiscal policy stance for Ireland; the Rainy Day Fund is a potentially useful tool in this regard, though further
detail is needed on its operation (a consultation process has now been launched)
41. Slide 41Slide 41
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