Charlie Hammerslough gives a presentation about marketing trends in 1999 versus 2019. Some key ideas from 1999 included the Cluetrain Manifesto's view of engaged consumers, permission marketing, one-to-one marketing, and disintermediation. Amara's Law holds that technologies are often overestimated in short term impact and underestimated in long term effect. Current 2009 trends highlighted include the importance of published content and utility as marketing, visual communication, and technology-enabled social networks driving word-of-mouth. Certain aspects of branding and appealing to emotions may remain unchanged.

1. Charlie Hammerslough
Lunch Ann Arbor Marketing (LA2M)
April 22, 2009

2. Let’s start with a famous
philosopher
Socrates?

3. Yogi Berra
“The Future
Ain’t What It
Used To Be”

4. (The Future Doesn’t
Exist)

5. Sometimes, it is important to just ask the right questions.
Or, frankly, to ask any questions at all.

6. We all experience the present.
We choose to vicariously experience the future.
What were we saying about the future in 1999, and what
lesson does that offer for our thinking about 2019?

7. •The Cluetrain Manifesto
• “Employees are Passionate, Involved,
Networked Consumers, Too”
•Permission Marketing
• “Interruption BAD, Permission GOOD!”
•One-to-One Marketing
• “High-Tech, High-Touch”
• Mass micro-personalization
•Disintermediation
• Dispensing with the middle-men.
• “Will consumers even need marketing?”
is Just Like Direct Mail, but Cheaper!”
•“Email

8. •Eyeballs more Important than a Business Model
(Pets.com!)
•The end of mass advertising, rise of niche
marketing
•Multi-Channel Integration
• “Clicks and Mortar”
• Consumer channel preference
• Measurement challenges
Internet will Become Pervasive and “Normal”
•The
• Broadband will be standard
• “The Information Superhighway” … product
information faster!

9. From Whom Do We Learn
About the Future?
Our Gut

 Extrapolation of Current Trends
 “Nothing Much Really Changes”
 Science/Speculative Fiction Writers
 “Futurists”
A: All of the above.

10. Amara’s Law:
quot;We tend to overestimate the effect of a

technology in the short run and to
underestimate the effect in the long run.quot;
- Roy Amara, futurist (1925-2007)
 An Example:
 Q: What Percent of Americans Use Twitter
as of March, 2009?

11. (But it’s growing like a weed; thanks Oprah!)
Oh, and HELLOOO, Maureen Dowd!

13. (March, 2009, again)
Be careful not to generalize from your own cutting-edge
experience, friends.

14. Hammerslough’s Quibble:
Amara’s Law works in reverse, too:

 “We tend to underestimate the effect and
persistence of old technologies when
thinking about the future”
Charlie Hammerslough, amateur (1958-)
 Examples:
 Yellow Pages advertising expenditure is growing
and becoming more effective (+4% YOY)
 Online Advertising accounts for only 12% of
worldwide expenditures (2008)

15. •Current Trends
•Stuff that Won’t Change
•Emerging Ideas

16. Current Trends, 2009
(a selection)
“You are What You Publish”

 Websites, blogs, twitter, videos, vlogs, news
releases, etc
Content and Utility ARE Marketing

 Visual Everything – Rise of Semiotics
 Icons everywhere
Technology-Enabled Social Networks

and Word of Mouth

20. Cadbury’s 1-minute ad
11 million views, $0 spend on broadcast

22. Web 1.0 was Commerce,
Web 2.0 is People
-Ross Mayfield

23. Web 2.0

24. One of my faves, and the graphics are cute.

25. Stuff That Won’t Change
(probably)
Branding

 How a product is represented inside people’s
minds
Appeals to Emotion

 Formerly Fear, Sex, and Greed (sometimes
humor)
 Now Supplemented by Sociability,
Commitment, Vanity, Surprise?
Authenticity of Voice

 Ever-shifting … content and utility are now
ascendant

26. CONTENT IS THE NEW
PRESIDENT, BITCH.
Tracy Morgan, SNL

27. Emergent Ideas

28. Scale becomes irrelevant.

31. In 2009, more people are on Second Life than are Farmers.

32. del.icio.us

33. Thanks.
Charles.Hammerslough@demometrics.com
www.linkedin.com/in/chammerslough

34. Acknowledgements and
Sources
David Meerman Scott. 2007. The New

Rules of Marketing and PR. Book.
 Paul Isakson. 2007. What’s Next in
Marketing and Advertising. PPT.
http://tinyurl.com/37sbht
 John Willshire. 2009. The Future of
Advertising in One Afternoon. PPT.
http://tinyurl.com/bmd8bb
 Stats on usage of Social Media by
Americans and by Marketers: (blogs)
 http://tinyurl.com/ccwqrg
 http://tinyurl.com/ckh8nl

35. Acknowledgements and
Sources (cont.)
Mike Lewis. 2008. Social Media

Marketing: Online Marketing Summit.
PPT. http://tinyurl.com/6h3pzg
 David Armano (visualizations)
 Blog: http://darmano.typepad.com
 Website: www.davidarmano.com
Cadbury Viral Advert

 www.youtube.com/watch?v=TVblWq3tDwY