Presentation slides by our analyst Nico Jonckheere, from the seminar in Surabaya on June 2nd 2016

2. Do You Know What The
BIGGEST PROBLEM Facing The
World Today Is?

3. AMERICA is BANKRUPT and on borrowed time.

4. If the chart above looks INCREASINGLY EXPONENTIAL, that is not a
coincidence.

5. A “Saturated World”
Stock of debt across non-financial sectors vs GDP, in local currency, nominal
U.S. Japan China
U.K. Euro area Brasil

6. Is It Time To Sell The US
Dollar?

7. Source: www.GoldPredict.com

8. Source: www.GoldPredict.com

9. The dollar could shock everyone by weakening against the euro in 2016
Monthly EUR/USD
PERIOD: Q4 2006 – Q2 2016

10. Weekly EUR/USD
PERIOD: Q2 2012 – Q2 2016

11. Cautious Signs in the US Equity
Market

12. US QUARTERLY EPS GROWTH y/y, in%
PERIOD: Q4 2012 – Q1 2016
1Q Results set to show biggest quarterly drop in U.S. Profits since 2009
Source: www.bloomberg.com

13. S&P 500 Monthly P/E Ratios
Number of Months for Each P/E Ratio Range Since 1871

14. The current market environment is not unlike that seen just prior to
the major market corrections in 2000 and 2008
SPX Prior Peak Earnings Index
PERIOD: 1998 - 2016

15. Opportunities to
Consider

16. Hedge fund net length
is around record highs
on ICE Brent, giving
some scope for position
liquidation following
any ‘disappointing’
headlines and adding to
downside risk.
ICE Brent Net Speculative Fund Long Position

17. IEA World Liquids Market Balance
(Supply minus Demand)

18. Shipping data shows that
some 50 supertankers
are currently anchored in
or close to Singaporean
waters.

19. Daily CLc1 Price (USD/Barrel)
PERIOD: January ‘16 – May ‘16

20. Will the summer of 2016 be
a rerun of last summer
when oil jumped from $45
to $60 only to tumble into
the end of the year?
WTI Prices (USD/Barrel)
Source: Bloomberg

21. Has The New Bull Market
In Gold Started?

22. If mainstream investors
flocked into Gold ETF’s &
Funds when the market
only suffered a 11%
correction (Jan-Feb),
what happens when the
markets really tank??
Global Gold ETF & Similar Fund Demand
PERIOD: Q1 2014 – Q1 2016
Source: World Gold Council

23. Central banks have been
active buyers of the
metal, building up their
gold reserves,
particularly since 2010.
Central Bank Official Net Gold Purchases
(METRIC TON)
Source: World Gold Council

24. Gold withdrawals from
the SGE for 2015
amounted to 2596
tons, or 91% of world
gold production
SGE Withdrawals vs. World Gold Production
Source: SGE, USGS, Richardson GMP AMP

25. Analysts at Credit Suisse are projecting a DEFICIT to begin in 2016
and expect that mine supply will fall by 11.5% from 2015 to 2018:
Gold Supply & Demand Forecasts
(metric tonnes)
Source: Credit Suisse, Richardson, GMP AM

26. As @TheChartMeister notes, sometimes a picture helps
Gold Price (London PM Fix, US $/troy ounce)
PERIOD: Januar 1970 – March 2016

27. Gold Spot Price
PERIOD: December ‘15 – May ‘16

28. How About Indonesia?

29. The IMF forecast that
developing markets’
economic growth will
continue to grow at
double the pace of the
developed world over
the next five years.
GDP Percent Change
Advanced vs. Emerging Market & Developing Economies
Source: International Monetary Fund Worl Economic Outlook Database, April 2015

30. Asia’s
ascension will
be led by 10
economies,
which could
account for 50
percent of
global GDP by
2050.
Percentage of World GDP Current Prices
PERIOD: 1980 - 2050
Source: CEIC, ANZ Research Projection, US Global Investors
Note: Asia 10 includes China, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore,
Thailand and Vietnam

31. Growth of the
Asian ‘middle
class’
dominates
next 20 years
Investors need to understand that the rise of the Asian consumer represents a secular, not a
cyclical, change and portfolios need to be re-positioned in order to benefit from this.
Source: OECD, Standard Chartered Research

32. Indonesia’s economy
• Indonesia’s GDP only increased 4.92% YoY in 1Q16 compared to
5.04% YoY, below market expectation
• Consumption merely grew 4.94% YoY in 1Q16
• We are optimistic Indonesian economy to rebound in next
quarters, supported by government spend along with economic
stimulus package

33. Why Construction Sector?
In 2016, government has prepared Rp
1,325.6 trillion for state budget (APBN)
where Rp 313.5 trillion (+8% YoY) has
been allocated to boost infrastructure
development in which Rp 104.1 trillion
is set aside for Public Works and
Housing Ministry.
Government has appointed construction SOEs as the executors of government
projects.

34. Construction Sector
ADHI.IJ
Price Target : Rp2,840
• New contracts grew 43.4% YoY in
April 2016 to Rp4.7tn
• LRT Project
WSKT.IJ
Price Target : Rp2,870
• Net income surged 1,026% YoY
to Rp127,3bn in 1Q16
• Toll Road

35. Why Consumer Sector?
Growing Middle Income Class Demographic Bonus
Source : Indonesia Central Bureau of Statistics and VAS Research

36. Consumer Sector
ICBP.IJ
Price Target : Rp20,840
• Upbeat outlook on noodle division
• Growth potential from dairy and
beverage sectors
INDF.IJ
Price Target : Rp9,150
• Holding company with
diversified portfolio, namely:
bogasari, ICBP.IJ, LSIP.IJ and
SIMP.IJ

37. Banking Sector
BBRI.IJ
Price Target : Rp13,800
• Satellite launching
• King of Microloans
• Attractive Valuation
BBCA.IJ
Price Target : Rp15,250
• Low NPL compared to its
competitors
• Approaching single digit lending rate
• Strong financial position, presented
by low LDR combined with a strong
CAR

38. 1 BULAN 3 BULAN 6 BULAN 12 BULAN YTD PELUNCURAN
VALBURY BALANCED I -0.46 5.66 11.43 5.15 11.78 19,91
INFOVESTA BALANCED FUND INDEX -0.41 3.47 6,42 -1.63 5.69 _
TOLOK UKUR 0.00 1.19 3.05 0.55 2.60 10.44
JUNI ‘13 – 27 Mei ‘16
Performance Chart Valbury Balanced I

39. SIMULASI HASIL INVESTASI
Performance Reksadana Valbury
Capital Protected III
Periode Penawaran: 6 – 8 Juni 2016
Peluncuran : 9 Juni 2016
Lock Up periode : 1 Tahun
MANAJER INVESTASI BANK KUSTODIAN
70 % -100 % 0 % - 30 %
Efek Bersifat
Utang
(Single A-)
Efek Bersifat
Utang
dan/Kas dan/
Setara Kas
KOMPOSISI INVESTASI

40. @researchvaf and @researchvas
/valburyasia
THANK YOU!
/valburyresearch
www.valbury.co.id
CONNECT WITH US: