Capital Economics is a leading independent provider of macroeconomic research with over 50 economists located globally. It offers subscription-based research services covering various economies, sectors, and financial markets. Some of its distinctive strengths include challenging conventional wisdom in its forecasts, using proprietary indicators, and having a strong track record of predicting major economic shifts correctly such as the 2008 US recession and downturns in emerging markets. It aims to provide timely, concise, and user-friendly analysis with clear conclusions.

1. The Leading Independent Macroeconomic Research Provider
Macroeconomic Forecasting · Market Analysis · Sector Research
About Us
 Capital Economics is one of the world’s leading independent providers of macroeconomic research, with
offices in London, New York, Toronto, Sydney and Singapore.
 Our highly respected team of more than 50 economists is one of the largest and based around the
globe, meaning we benefit from in-depth local knowledge and can cover events as they unfold.
 Our main business is the provision of regular and ad hoc pieces of written research which are sold in
packages for annual subscription. These services are listed below. In summary, we offer country and
regional research on the US, Canada, UK, Western Europe, Japan, China, India, Latin America,
Emerging Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Emerging Asia, Australia and New Zealand. We also provide
overview services covering the global economy and financial markets, and have dedicated services
providing research on commodities and on the property sector.
 In addition, our economists are available by telephone or e-mail for further discussion and analysis
according to clients’ needs. We also make presentations and undertake commissioned projects.
 We are not afraid to challenge the conventional wisdom. This is reflected in our economic and market
forecasts, which are often very different from the consensus, and in our track record (overleaf).
 In particular, we have been ahead of the pack in forecasting the major shifts in the world economy over
the past decade, including the US recession in 2008, the euro-zone debt crisis in 2010 and the
downturn in emerging markets and collapse in global commodity prices in 2011-14.
 Our research is timely, concise, and user-friendly. We avoid simply reporting past developments and
instead provide original and forward-looking analysis, with strong and clear conclusions. Where
appropriate, we always draw out the market implications of our economic views.
 Our work uses a range of proprietary indicators that give us a further edge over competitors. These
include our in-house measure of growth in China, the Capital Economics China Activity Proxy.
 As well as personal contact with our economists, clients can access an archive of our research on our
website and download the Capital Economics App for tablets and smartphones.
Our Services
Global Economics Emerging Markets Economics Commodities Overview
Global Markets Emerging Asia Energy
Capital Daily Emerging Europe Industrial Metals
Latin America Precious Metal
US Economics Middle East & North Africa Agricultural Commodities
European Economics Africa
UK Economics
Japan Economics UK Consumer US Housing Market
Canada Economics UK Markets European Commercial Property
China Economics UK Cities & Regions UK Housing Market
India Economics UK Commercial Property
Australia & New Zealand
continued overleaf

2. Our Track Record
We have established an enviable reputation over the past decade for getting the big calls right:
- In November 2005, we warned in our US Focus "The coming US recession" that a bubble in the
housing market would tip the US economy into recession within the next 2-3 years.
- In the early days of the global financial crisis, Capital Economics was among the first to predict that
official interest rates would be cut to near-zero in the major advanced economies and remain low
for an extended period, keeping government bond yields low for many years too. We also argued
that inflation would remain low, despite the widespread adoption of quantitative easing.
- For example, when UK interest rates were first cut to 0.5% in 2009 we argued that they could stay
at this level for at least five years in response to prolonged fiscal tightening and a sluggish
economic recovery. They remain at 0.5% today – six years later.
- In early 2013 our US team was one of the first to predict the start of Fed tapering later that year
and a substantial correction in the prices of riskier assets (as indeed occurred in mid-2013) once
the markets began to focus on this prospect. Then in the midst of the turmoil, when many
observers were worrying that the withdrawal of Fed stimulus would result in large and sustained
falls in equity prices, we actually revised our stock market forecasts higher.
- Throughout this period we have developed an enviable reputation for extensive and balanced
coverage of Emerging Markets, drawing on our proprietary indicators of economic growth and
financial stress.
- For example, we were early to warn about the financial risks that have since caused many
markets to fall sharply. (See “Capital flows to EMs: an accident waiting to happen”, July 2011.) We
were also well ahead of the pack in identifying the structural problems that have since caused
growth in the BRICs to weaken. (See “Shifting down the gears”, September 2012.)
- Since the launch of our dedicated coverage of commodities in 2011 we have generally (and
correctly) been bearish on most industrials. For example, in our Commodities Focus, “The
impending collapse of copper prices”, published in April 2012, we forecast a decline to $5,000 per
tonne when the price of copper was still above $8,000. And in our Energy Watch, “Oil prices to
end the decade much lower”, published in November 2013, we correctly forecast a sharp drop
when the consensus was still that oil prices above $100pb were the “new normal”.
- Our detailed analysis of the economic problems in the euro-zone has allowed us to predict the
fragility of the recovery there. We were also among the first to identify the market opportunities
resulting from the threat of deflation and the likelihood of further easing from the ECB.
- We have consistently argued that the US dollar is likely to keep rising against the euro and the yen
long before this view became fashionable and even when others were talking of a major reversal.
(See our Global Markets Update, “Too soon to call the turn in the dollar”, March 2015.)
- We frequently top polls of analysts’ forecasts and have won many awards over the years, including:
o 2014 UK Forecaster of the Year (Sunday Times)
o 2014 and 2013 Russia Forecaster of the Year (Consensus Economics)
o 2012 Wolfson Prize for Economics
o 2011 UK Independent Forecaster of the Year (Sunday Times)
o 2010 US Forecaster of the Year (Wall Street Journal)
- Looking ahead, despite much of the recent gloom surrounding the global economy and emerging
markets in particular, we expect more positive than negative surprises over the next year. And
while the euro-zone and Japan will probably continue to struggle, we are more upbeat than most
on the prospects for the US and the UK.
- In the markets, we think the big falls in commodities are behind us and, while bond yields are likely
to edge higher, equities should weather the onset of higher US interest rates relatively well.
For more details of any of our services or to take a free trial, please visit our website
www.capitaleconomics.com or contact James Hayes (UK/Europe) on +44 (0)20 7808 4981,
Conor Nevin (Americas) on +1 416 413 0428, or Tony Goldberg (Asia) on +65 6595 5190.
November 2015