A major earthquake devastated the Armenian Republic of the Soviet Union on December 7, 1988, resulting in thousands of deaths and injuries. In a postearthquake investigation of three towns seriously affected by the earthquake, we studied earthquake-related injury patterns, made observations on rescue and medical efforts, and postulated certain factors associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Information was obtained from official Soviet documents, interviews with survivors of the earthquake, and interviews with local, regional, and national government officials. Figures were based on assessments made by these officials in the field in the immediate postearthquake period. Out of a population of 8,500, there were 4,202 (49.4%) deaths and 1,244 (14.6%) injured (casualty rate, 64.0%). Deaths and injuries were 67 and 11 times higher, respectively, among trapped than nontrapped victims. Being outside at the time of the earthquake or having escaped to the outside from the collapsing structure was crucial for survival. Among persons found alive, 89% were rescued during the first 24 hours, mostly without the use of heavy equipment. This observation underscores the importance of swift rescuer response. As with all field surveys after disasters, there were methodological limitations to this study due to chaotic postearthquake conditions. Accordingly, results must be approached with caution. Nonetheless, these preliminary observations are striking and have generated several new hypotheses for further investigations using more sophisticated analytic methods.
The context of providing public health services to disaster affected populations has changed over the past 20 years. Since the early 1990s, the number of humanitarian assistance operations in failed states has risen. Conditions for relief workers in many countries in the midst of civil war and other fragile or failed states are unsafe. the importance of security training prior to deployment cannot be over emphasized
We believe a flawed premise. Typhoon disasters, which occur annually, should be enough to make any nation susceptible to typhoons adopt and implement policies that will lead to their typhoon disaster resilience. Fact: it usually takes multiple disasters before a stricken nation will adopt policies to move towards disaster resilient. Creating turning points for typhoon disaster resilience. Integration of scientific and technical solutions with political solutions for policies on preparedness, protection, early warning, emergency response, and recovery. Presentation courtesy of Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction
CONDITIONS ON DAYS SIX AND SEVEN (Nov. 4-5) post passage of Hurricane Sandy
- Over 1.3 million residents still without electricity, waiting in cold, damp houses without cell phone service, refusing to go to heated shelters because of fear of looting if they leave their homes.
- Fuel oil spills in New York Harbor.
NOR’EASTER’S NEGATIVE IMPACTS EXACERBATE RECOVERY
• Wind of up to 50 mph (85 kph) in New Jersey and New York, with downed trees and power outages from a blanket of heavy, wet snow
• Prolonged power outages
Powerpoint presentation courtesy of Dr Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction
The context of providing public health services to disaster affected populations has changed over the past 20 years. Since the early 1990s, the number of humanitarian assistance operations in failed states has risen. Conditions for relief workers in many countries in the midst of civil war and other fragile or failed states are unsafe. the importance of security training prior to deployment cannot be over emphasized
We believe a flawed premise. Typhoon disasters, which occur annually, should be enough to make any nation susceptible to typhoons adopt and implement policies that will lead to their typhoon disaster resilience. Fact: it usually takes multiple disasters before a stricken nation will adopt policies to move towards disaster resilient. Creating turning points for typhoon disaster resilience. Integration of scientific and technical solutions with political solutions for policies on preparedness, protection, early warning, emergency response, and recovery. Presentation courtesy of Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction
CONDITIONS ON DAYS SIX AND SEVEN (Nov. 4-5) post passage of Hurricane Sandy
- Over 1.3 million residents still without electricity, waiting in cold, damp houses without cell phone service, refusing to go to heated shelters because of fear of looting if they leave their homes.
- Fuel oil spills in New York Harbor.
NOR’EASTER’S NEGATIVE IMPACTS EXACERBATE RECOVERY
• Wind of up to 50 mph (85 kph) in New Jersey and New York, with downed trees and power outages from a blanket of heavy, wet snow
• Prolonged power outages
Powerpoint presentation courtesy of Dr Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction
The most powerful typhoon of the 2013 season approached the northern Philippines and southern Taiwan on Friday (Sept. 20) with wind reaching 300 kph (184 mph) and torrential rain. The death toll now stands at 475 and is expected to increase dramatically in the days to come. Usagi has a diameter of 1,100 kilometers (660 miles), with outer rain bands extending across the main northern Philippine island of Luzon and southern Taiwan. Forecasters predict 24-hour rainfall accumulation of 500 millimeters (nearly 20 inches) near its center. Presentation courtesy of Dr Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction
Super Typhoon Haiyan Leaves An Estimated 1,200 People Dead In The Philippines; Damage and casualty statistics predicted to increase dramatically. Storm now moving towards Vietnam November 8-9, 2013. Two Exacerbating Factors: (1) Another Typhoon With Approximately The Same Path Expected In 3-4 Days (2) Haiyan Followed A Damaging Quake. Presentation courtesy of Dr Walter Hays
Don’t be lulled into a state-of-unpreparedness! (National Hurricane Center). According to weather records dating back to 1851, the first hurricane DID NOT FORM until after Aug. 20 in 48 of the 161 years, and in 25 of then, it formed on or after 1 September. Presentation courtesy of Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction
The greenhouse effect occurs when an earth warmed by the solar spectrum radiates invisible infrared light back, but, instead of going back to space, it is partly absorbed by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, making the atmosphere warmer. Substantial areas of North America are likely to have more frequent droughts of greater severity. Hurricane wind speeds, rainfall intensity, and storm surge levels are likely to increase. The strongest winter storms are likely to become more frequent, with stronger winds and more extreme wave heights. Presentation courtesy of Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction
We have been asked to speak to many entrepreneurial, student and business groups on what strategies we have used to become successful. We hope they help you.
The Thornton Group - Finding and Keeping the Best Talent - An 8 Step Hiring ...Neil Thornton HBA, MA
Finding, keeping and engaging top talent remains a priority for most, if not all of our clients today. To help, we have developed a unique approach to recruiting that is celebrating incredible success.
What's your status? Understanding social media (Mar. 4, 2011). Facebook, Twitter & Blogs...in today's society, social media is a widely used method of getting information out to people. During this session we will get into the nuts and bolts of what social media is and reasons why people use it in the agriculture sector.
Right at home realty communications, impact and etiquette - september 2013Neil Thornton HBA, MA
Presence and impact is still a fundamental element of business success. The team at Right At Home Realty, Canada's largest real estate group brought the Toronto team together to raise their game.
The Chaparrastique volcano, which is located in the San Miguel municipality about 140 km (87 miles) east of San Salvador, the capital, spewed ash over a wide area known for its coffee plantations. After erupting 26 times in the last 500 years, Chaparrastique is considered the most active of El Salvador’s 23 active volcanoes. THE KEYS TO RESILIENCE and recovery from volcanic disasters: 1) know the eruptive history of your region’s volcanoes; 2) be prepared; 3) have a warning system; 4) evacuate; 5) learn from the experience and start over
Particulate matter is a mixture of very small solids and liquid droplets that float in the air. Some particles come from a specific source (such as a burning candle), while others form as a result of complicated chemical reactions. While much is known about the health effects of exposure to particulate matter outdoors, the effects of indoor exposure are less well-understood. However, indoor exposure to particulate matter is gaining attention as a potential source of adverse health effects.
Two drivers stand out in this analysis because of their potentially large and negative effect on disaster risk, and the low associated uncer tainty of their future trends: global environmental change and demographic change. But others stand out for a different reason: while they have the potential to greatly increase disaster risk, there is also potential for effective policy action to achieve risk reduction. Urbanisation provides the clearest example: unmanaged growth of cities, par ticularly those in low elevation coastal zones, would leave millions in extremely vulnerable situations, but there will be oppor tunities for policy makers to intervene to increase resilience in urban areas. Other drivers, for example globalisation, have extremely complex interactions with disaster risk, but must nonetheless be considered. In this lecture I will discuss the impact of each of the eight drivers on disaster risk is considered.
The objective of this study is to evaluate the seismic hazard at the northwestern Egypt using the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment approach. The Probabilistic approach was carried out based on a recent data set to take into account the historic seismicity and updated instrumental seismicity. A homogenous earthquake catalogue was compiled and a proposed seismic sources model was presented. The doubly-truncated exponential model was adopted for calculations of the recurrence parameters. Ground-motion prediction equations that recently recommended by experts and developed based upon..
The most powerful typhoon of the 2013 season approached the northern Philippines and southern Taiwan on Friday (Sept. 20) with wind reaching 300 kph (184 mph) and torrential rain. The death toll now stands at 475 and is expected to increase dramatically in the days to come. Usagi has a diameter of 1,100 kilometers (660 miles), with outer rain bands extending across the main northern Philippine island of Luzon and southern Taiwan. Forecasters predict 24-hour rainfall accumulation of 500 millimeters (nearly 20 inches) near its center. Presentation courtesy of Dr Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction
Super Typhoon Haiyan Leaves An Estimated 1,200 People Dead In The Philippines; Damage and casualty statistics predicted to increase dramatically. Storm now moving towards Vietnam November 8-9, 2013. Two Exacerbating Factors: (1) Another Typhoon With Approximately The Same Path Expected In 3-4 Days (2) Haiyan Followed A Damaging Quake. Presentation courtesy of Dr Walter Hays
Don’t be lulled into a state-of-unpreparedness! (National Hurricane Center). According to weather records dating back to 1851, the first hurricane DID NOT FORM until after Aug. 20 in 48 of the 161 years, and in 25 of then, it formed on or after 1 September. Presentation courtesy of Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction
The greenhouse effect occurs when an earth warmed by the solar spectrum radiates invisible infrared light back, but, instead of going back to space, it is partly absorbed by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, making the atmosphere warmer. Substantial areas of North America are likely to have more frequent droughts of greater severity. Hurricane wind speeds, rainfall intensity, and storm surge levels are likely to increase. The strongest winter storms are likely to become more frequent, with stronger winds and more extreme wave heights. Presentation courtesy of Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction
We have been asked to speak to many entrepreneurial, student and business groups on what strategies we have used to become successful. We hope they help you.
The Thornton Group - Finding and Keeping the Best Talent - An 8 Step Hiring ...Neil Thornton HBA, MA
Finding, keeping and engaging top talent remains a priority for most, if not all of our clients today. To help, we have developed a unique approach to recruiting that is celebrating incredible success.
What's your status? Understanding social media (Mar. 4, 2011). Facebook, Twitter & Blogs...in today's society, social media is a widely used method of getting information out to people. During this session we will get into the nuts and bolts of what social media is and reasons why people use it in the agriculture sector.
Right at home realty communications, impact and etiquette - september 2013Neil Thornton HBA, MA
Presence and impact is still a fundamental element of business success. The team at Right At Home Realty, Canada's largest real estate group brought the Toronto team together to raise their game.
The Chaparrastique volcano, which is located in the San Miguel municipality about 140 km (87 miles) east of San Salvador, the capital, spewed ash over a wide area known for its coffee plantations. After erupting 26 times in the last 500 years, Chaparrastique is considered the most active of El Salvador’s 23 active volcanoes. THE KEYS TO RESILIENCE and recovery from volcanic disasters: 1) know the eruptive history of your region’s volcanoes; 2) be prepared; 3) have a warning system; 4) evacuate; 5) learn from the experience and start over
Particulate matter is a mixture of very small solids and liquid droplets that float in the air. Some particles come from a specific source (such as a burning candle), while others form as a result of complicated chemical reactions. While much is known about the health effects of exposure to particulate matter outdoors, the effects of indoor exposure are less well-understood. However, indoor exposure to particulate matter is gaining attention as a potential source of adverse health effects.
Two drivers stand out in this analysis because of their potentially large and negative effect on disaster risk, and the low associated uncer tainty of their future trends: global environmental change and demographic change. But others stand out for a different reason: while they have the potential to greatly increase disaster risk, there is also potential for effective policy action to achieve risk reduction. Urbanisation provides the clearest example: unmanaged growth of cities, par ticularly those in low elevation coastal zones, would leave millions in extremely vulnerable situations, but there will be oppor tunities for policy makers to intervene to increase resilience in urban areas. Other drivers, for example globalisation, have extremely complex interactions with disaster risk, but must nonetheless be considered. In this lecture I will discuss the impact of each of the eight drivers on disaster risk is considered.
The objective of this study is to evaluate the seismic hazard at the northwestern Egypt using the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment approach. The Probabilistic approach was carried out based on a recent data set to take into account the historic seismicity and updated instrumental seismicity. A homogenous earthquake catalogue was compiled and a proposed seismic sources model was presented. The doubly-truncated exponential model was adopted for calculations of the recurrence parameters. Ground-motion prediction equations that recently recommended by experts and developed based upon..
A powerful 7.5 magnitude earthquake rocked parts of South Asia on 26 October 2015. It was centred near Jurm in northeast Afghanistan, 250 kilometres (160 miles) from the capital Kabul and at a depth of 213.5 kilometres, the US Geological Survey said. (AFP, 26 Oct 2015) Pakistan's confirmed death toll so far stands at 272, with more than 1,900 people injured and nearly 14,000 homes damaged, though the spokesman said the NDMA was still in the process of estimating a final toll. (AFP, 28 Oct 2015) In Afghanistan, Assessment reports indicate 117 deaths, 544 people injured, 12,794 homes damaged and 7,384 houses destroyed. Furthermore, 136,967 people are still in need of humanitarian assistance, of which 131,345 people have received some form of assistance so far date. More than 51,000 people were affected in Badakhshan alone, where property damage was most extensive. The earthquake claimed the most lives and caused the most casualties in Kunar and Nangarhar provinces. Access remains the most significant challenge in providing assistance to people in need and is an issue reaching at least 194 villages affected by the earthquake.
A torrential rain event during the first full week of March 2016 featuring over two feet of record March rain in the South unleashed major river flooding, rising to historic levels in some areas. Add flooding along the Gulf Coast, and the disaster became a triple assault. In all, 400 homes flooded in Mississippi. Three people were killed in Louisiana, the governor said. In one case, a driver died when floodwater swept his vehicle off a road in Bienville Parish, the Governor's Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness said. The two others died in Ouachita Parish, according to the Louisiana Department of Health and Hospitals.
The 2016 Ecuador earthquake occurred on April 16 at 18:58:37 ECT with a moment magnitude of 7.8 and a maximum Mercalli intensity of VIII (Severe). The very large thrust earthquake was centered approximately 27 km (17 mi) from the towns of Muisne and Pedernales in a sparsely populated part of the country, and 170 km (110 mi) from the capital Quito, where it was felt strongly. Regions of Manta, Pedernales and Portoviejo accounted for over 75 percent of total casualties.[6] Manta's central commercial shopping district Tarqui, was completely destroyed. Widespread damage was caused across Manabi province, with structures hundreds of kilometres from the epicenter collapsing. At least 659 people were killed and 27,732 people injured. President Rafael Correa declared a state of emergency; 13,500 military personnel and police officers were dispatched for recovery operations.
The moderate-magnitude quake struck at 9:26 p.M. Thursday night at a depth of 11 kilometers (7 miles) in southern Japan near Kumamoto city on the island of Kyushu. The epicenter was 120 kilometers (74 miles) northeast of Kyushu Electric Power Company's Sendai nuclear plant, the only one operating in the country; no adverse consequences were reported.
Lesson: the knowledge and timing of anticipatory actions is vital
The Kathmandu Valley is densely populated with nearly 2.5 million people, and the quality of building construction is often poor. The epicenter of today's disaster was 80 kilometers (50 miles) northwest of the city, and had a depth of only 11 kilometers (7 miles), which is considered shallow in geological terms. This earthquake, the worst quake to hit Nepal (a poor South Asian nation) since 1934, collapsed buildings and houses, leveled centuries-old temples and triggered avalanches in the Himalayas. Presentation courtesy of Dr Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction.
The Third UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction was held from 14 to 18 March 2015 in Sendai City, Miyagi Prefecture, Japan. Several thousand participants attended, including at related events linked to the World Conference under the umbrella of building the resilience of nations and communities to disasters. The United Nations General Assembly Resolution for 2013 on International Strategy for Disaster Reduction states that the World Conference will result in a concise, focused, forward-looking, and action-oriented outcome document and will have the following objectives:
* To complete assessment and review of the implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action;
* To consider the experience gained through the regional and national strategies/institutions and plans for disaster risk reduction and their recommendations as well as relevant regional agreements within the implementation of the Hyogo Framework of Action;
* To adopt a post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction;
* To identify modalities of cooperation based on commitments to implement a post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction;
* To determine modalities to periodically review the implementation of a post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction.
Presentation courtesy of Dr Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction
March 15, 2015: The second world conference on disaster risk reduction convened in Sendai, Japan will re-invigorate the historic global endeavor started in 1990 by the United Nations. Presentation courtesy of Dr Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction
Popocatapatele and Colima, two of Mexico’s most active volcanoes, are acting up again. For now the eruptions are not considered to be dangerous and no evacuations have been ordered. But don’t forget that the world’s 1,498 other active volcanoes can erupt at anytime too. A re-eruption of any of these active volcanoes is likely to be very devastating, locally, regionally, and globally. Location and a large explosivity index (VEI) combine to make some volcanoes especially dangerous. Location refers to proximity to cities and other areas of high human population density. An eruption with large VEI at such locations is certain to be devastating to people, their property, their health, the community infra-structure, the environment, and the economy. Presentation courtesy of Dr Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction.
INDIA IS BIG, DIVERSE, and CAPABLE. It is the seventh largest country, The second most populous country with human resources of over 1.2 billion people having cultural and religious diversity, The most populous democracy, with many well- educated and well-trained people, with high-tech and low-tech capabilities. On the downside, it is also a country with many living in poverty, with many living in non-earthquake-resistant housing, with cities and towns that are dependent upon non- earthquake-resistant infrastructure and critical facilities. India faces potential disasters each year from floods, earthquakes, and cyclones, some of which have triggered notable disasters in the past, and very recently. That will happen again, unless a paradigm shift occurs. Disaster resilience has become an urgent global goal in the 21st century as many Nations are experiencing disasters after a natural hazard strikes, and learning that their communities, institutions, and people do NOT yet have the capacity to be disaster resilient. Disaster resilience does not just happen; it is the result of decision-making for a national paradigm shift from the status quo to an improved “coping capacity” that enables the country to rebound quickly after a disaster. A paradigm shift towards earthquake disaster resilience is a three step process. Step 1: Integrate Past Experiences Into Books of Knowledge. Step 2: From Books of Knowledge to Innovative Educational Surges to Build Professional and Technical Capacit. Step 3: From Professional and Technical Capacity to Disaster Resilience. In summary, BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE are are “TOOLS” to facilitate India’s continuing commitment to minimize the likely impacts of the inevitable future earthquake, thereby preventing another disaster
Disaster resilience, which is the capacity of a country to rebound quickly after the socioeconomic impacts of a disaster, requires decision-making for a national paradigm shift from the status quo. Disaster resilience has become an urgent global goal in the 21st century as many Nations are experiencing disasters after a natural hazard strikes, and learning that their communities, institutions, and people do NOT yet have the capacity to be disaster resilient. Presentation courtesy of Dr Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction.
On January 29, 2015, a routine delivery of gas to a maternity hospital in Mexico City leads to a deadly explosion killing 4 and injuring dozens. The explosion occurred when a gas tanker was making a routine, early morning delivery of gas to the hospital kitchen, and gas started to leak. The tanker workers worked for 15 to 20 minutes to repair the leak while a large cloud of gas was forming, then exploded. Technologies for monitoring, forecasting, and warning are vital for becoming resilient. Presentation courtesy of Dr Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction
Disasters are caused by single- or multiple-event natural hazards that, (for various reasons), cause extreme levels of mortality, morbidity, homelessness, joblessness, economic losses, or environmental impacts. The keys to resilience: 1) know the history of past disasters 2) be prepared 3) have a warning system 4) evacuate 5) learn from the experience
As we begin the year 2015, we must unfortunately recognize that it is well past the time to speed up the long-term recovery process for earthquakes (and tsunamis). The main insights from global earthquakes have consistently shown that being prepared includes pre-earthquake planning for post-earthquake recovery ("PEPPER"). Only about 110 of the 10 million earthquakes of all sizes that occur somewhere in the world each year are large enough and close enough to a community to cause a disaster, which creates a multitude of local and regional dilemmas about what to do, both before and after the quake, to shorten the recovery process. THE SOLUTION: PRE-EARTHQUAKE PLANNING FOR POST-EARTHQUAKE RECOVERY(PEPPER). “THE END GAME” FOR JAPAN AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA: Identification of the physical, social and economic consequences of a major earthquake in Tokai, Japan or Southern California will enable end users to identify what they can change now before the earthquake—to shorten recovery from the catastrophic impacts after the inevitable “big ones” occur, probably in the near future.
Floods occur somewhere in the world 10,000 times or more each year. With 2015’s spring floods only weeks away, it’s past time to speed up the long-term recovery process for floods. In 2008, after weeks of flooding through Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, Indiana and Wisconsin, the region faced billions of dollars in losses, threats of disease, and a long cleanup. Losses included millions of acres of prime farm land that are still requiring restoration and the rebuilding of large urban areas such as Cedar Rapids, Iowa which alone is estimated to have required at least $1 billion. However, the total direct and indirect losses may never be known. Flood waters during the summer of 2008 seeped into countless wells, affecting drinking water for thousands of homes and businesses across the region. Hazardous materials were also released into the flood waters that ultimately emptied into the Gulf of Mexico exacerbating what marine biologists call a “dead zone” – bodies of water so starved for oxygen that aquatic life can no longer be supported. Presentation courtesy of Dr Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction.
The 1988 Earthquake in Soviet Armenia: A Case Study
1. ORIGINAL CONTRIBUTION
earthquake;
injury, prevention
The 1988 Earthquake in Soviet Armenia:
A Case Study
A major earthquake devastated the Armenian Republic of the Soviet Eric K Noji, MD, MPH, FACEP*
Union on December 7, 1988, resulting in thousands of deaths and injuries. Gabor D Kelen, MD, FRCP(C), FACEP*
In a postearthquake investigation of three towns seriously affected by the Haroutune K Armenian, MD, DrPHt
earthquake, we studied earthquake-related injury patterns, made obser- Baltimore, Maryland
Ashot Oganessian, PhD§
vations on rescue and medical efforts, and postulated certain factors asso- Soviet Socialist Republic of
ciated with increased morbidity and mortality. Information was obtained Armenia, USSR
from official Soviet documents, interviews with survivors of the earth- Nicholas P Jones, PhD~
quake, and interviews with local, regional, and national government offi- Keith T Sivertson, MD*
cials. Figures were based on assessments made by these officials in the Baltimore, Maryland
field in the immediate postearthquake period. Out of a population of
8,500, there were 4,202 (49.4%) deaths and 1,244 (14.6%) injured (casualty From the Department of Emergency
rate, 64.0%). Deaths and injuries were 67 and 11 times higher, respectively, Medicine, The Johns Hopkins Hospital
among trapped than nontrapped victims. Being outside at the time of the and School of Medicine;* the Department
earthquake or having escaped to the outside from the collapsing structure of Epidemiology, School of Hygiene and
was crucial for survival. Among persons found alive, 89% were rescued Public Health,t and the Department of
during the first 24 hours, mostly without the use of heavy equipment. Civil Engineering]- The Johns Hopkins
University, Baltimore, Maryland; and the
This observation underscores the importance of swift rescuer response. As Computer information Center, Ministry of
with all field surveys after disasters, there were methodological limita- Health, Soviet Socialist Republic of
tions to this study due to chaotic postearthquake conditions. Accordingly, Armenia, USSR.§
results m u s t be approached with caution. Nonetheless, these preliminary
observations are striking and have generated several n e w hypotheses for Received for publication December 21,
further investigations using more sophisticated analytic methods. [Noji 1989. Accepted for publication March 5,
EK, Kelen GD, Armenian HK, Oganessian A, Jones NP, Sivertson KT: The 1990.
1988 earthquake in Soviet Armenia: A case stud~z Ann Emerg Med August
1990;I9:891-897.] Presented at the Society for Academic
Emergency Medicine Annual Meeting in
INTRODUCTION San Diego, May 1989.
During the past 20 years, earthquakes have caused more than a million
deaths worldwide. Better epidemiological knowledge of the causes of death This study was supported by the National
and the type of injuries and illnesses caused by earthquakes is clearly es- Center for Earthquake Engineering
sential for determining appropriate relief supplies, equipment, and person- Research (Project No. 884005C), The
nel. l-4 On December 7, 1988, an earthquake registering 6.9 on the Richter Armenian Relief Society, and the Office of
scale hit the northern part of the Armenian Soviet Socialist Republic, one US Foreign Disaster Assistance/Agency for
of the most seismically active regions of the Soviet Union s-s {Figure 1). International Development.
Caused by movement along a geological fault near the town of Spitak in
the northwestern part of the country, the quake affected 40% of the na- Address for reprints: Eric K Noji, MD,
tional territory.9,1o Of the 150 villages damaged, 58 were destroyed. A high MPH, FACER Department of Emergency
Medicine, The Johns Hopkins Hospital,
percentage of Armenia's housing (11%) was destroyed or rendered uninhab- 600 N Wolfe Street, Baltimore, Maryland
itable, and 500,000 to 700,000 persons were made homeless, t~ Bridges, life- 212O5.
lines (eg, water, power, gas, sewage systems), and industrial facilities were
also severely damaged. 1~ The toll in human terms was devastating: approx-
imately 40,000 persons were reported trapped in collapsed buildings -
15,000 were successfully rescued, and 25,000 bodies were recovered from
the rubble. Another 31,000 were known to be injured, of whom 12,200
required hospitalization. ~1,13
We undertook this survey during the period immediately after the earth-
quake to assess the epidemiologic impact of the disaster and to develop an
understanding of the relationships among building characteristics, occu-
pant actions, search and rescue, medical care, and patient outcome.
19:8 August 1990 Annals of Emergency Medicine 891/75
2. EARTHQUAKE
Noji et al
• Tbilisi
. . . . EPICENTER
USSR
keninakan',• • Kirovakan
_ __ • Yerevan
s,•
¢ •. a,.I
TURKEY ,--) ,, "" t
! •
w N
! o: .... ,o wm /0. IEPICENTER| STEPANAVAN
• ~ ,,
h:j,oo I ,.
¢l ,~., ;
£~-- .a,
, o ) o{ ~ z40~ ~ -- , ~6 , ' ' ,
// ~ , ~ o .9 / .... " ", ' ~, '~' ' l~-
Conlou¢ 200 m
FIGURE 1. Caucasus region and ma- damages and loss, and make observa- tained from the A r m e n i a n State
jor cities affected by earthquake. In- tions on rescue and medical care ef- C o m m i t t e e for Construction (Gos-
set: Region of most severe damage. forts. C e n s u s i n f o r m a t i o n , t o t a l stroi) and the Armenian Scientific
deaths, and total injured were ob- Research Institute of Civil Engineer-
tained from local health officials, the ing and Architecture. Observations
METHODS regional military disaster command on medical and rescue efforts were
The population under study was station, and the local headquarters of obtained from interviews with army,
the inhabitants of three towns within the Armenian Republican Civil De- civil defense, and Ministry of Health
the rural areas most affected by the fense. Special units of the Ministry of officials as well as with local fire-
earthquake, covering an area of 80 Internal Affairs were responsible for fighters, militiamen, army personnel,
k m : in northwest Armenia (Figure 1). organized registration of deaths, in- disaster relief workers, and surviving
Criteria applied to select the commu- cluding cause of death, place of en- inhabitants of the region.
nities for inclusion in the study were trapment, and time of extrication. An There were significant problems
population less than 5,000 and seis- office was set up in Spitak by the concerning the collection of data in
mic intensity of IX or greater on the Ministry of Internal Affairs for per- this study; these difficulties have
Modified Mercalli scale. Three towns sons seeking information on missing plagued all previous attempts to in-
- N a l b a n d , Geghasar, and Kat- friends and relatives. v e s t i g a t e h e a l t h effects of earth-
natschur - met the above criteria. Countrywide morbidity and mor- quakes in the immediate postimpact
All three towns were within 5 km of tality statistics were obtained from period.3,4,14 The chaotic postearth-
the earthquake's epicenter. The total the government Commission of the quake conditions as well as an under-
population of these three towns was Armenian SSR and the Division of standable emphasis on operational
approximately 8,500 before the earth- Information Systems of the Arme- concerns precluded the ability of au-
quake. nian Ministry of Health. Information thorities to conduct a systematic sur-
A rapid reconnaissance mission on housing and structural charac- vey of residences and households in
was conducted seven days after the teristics of buildings damaged or de- these three towns. A l t h o u g h the
earthquake to collect data, assess stroyed by the earthquake was oh- Ministry of the Interior reported that
76/892 A n n a l s of E m e r g e n c y Medicine 19:8 August 1990
3. TABLE 1. Location of individuals and entrapment status: Association w~th death and injury
Relative Risk Relative Risk
Population Deaths (%) (95% CI) Survivors Injured (%) (95% CI)
Location of
Individuals
Outside 651 8.8 1.0 594 1.7 1.0
Inside 7,120 55.1 6.3 (5.4-7.4) 3,197 36.3 21.6 (15.1-30.9)
Unknown 729 30.5 507 14.6
Total 8,500 49.4 4,298 28.9
Nontrapped Persons 3,390 1.2 1.0 3,349 8.8 1.0
q-rapped Persons 5,110 81.4 67.3 (49.7-91.3) 949 100.0 11.4 (10.2-12.7)
CL, confidence interval.
F I G U R E 2. Main street in Nnlband
showing complete collapse of all
buildings. Note complete collapse of
precast-concrete frame school build-
ing on right side of street.
same groups (Table l). Thus, deaths
w e r e 67 t i m e s and i n j u r y rates 11
times higher among trapped than
nontrapped victims. The casualty
rates w e r e reported to be 100% for
t r a p p e d people as c o m p a r e d w i t h a
rate of 9.9% for n o n t r a p p e d individ-
uals. For those trapped, the ratio of
injuries to deaths was 0.23, whereas
for n o n t r a p p e d i n d i v i d u a l s , it w a s
7.2.
All b u i l d i n g s in t h e t h r e e t o w n s
sustained severe damage or c o m p l e t e
collapse. A l m o s t all of the residential
dwellings were one-story unrein-
a strict registration of all deaths, in- RESULTS forced stone m a s o n r y structures b u i l t
cluding c i r c u m s t a n c e s of death, had In the three towns, the crude death from carved b l o c k s of tuff {a light-
b e e n c o n d u c t e d , all s t a t i s t i c s pre- r a t e ( t h e p e r c e n t a g e of r e s i d e n t s weight, volcanic stone) set in m o r t a r
sented here should be considered ap- found dead on extrication) was to form walls. Most of these dwell-
p r o x i m a t i o n s and, in some cases, an- 49.4%, w i t h a crude injury rate of ings p a r t i a l l y or t o t a l l y c o l l a p s e d .
ecdotal. For example, p o p u l a t i o n fig- 28.9% and an overall c a s u a l t y rate There were two types of precast con-
ures for the three t o w n s were taken (deaths and injuries) of 64.1% (Table crete b u i l d i n g s in the t h r e e towns.
from a census conducted in i979. It 1). At the t i m e of the impact, m o s t P r e c a s t c o n c r e t e e l e m e n t s refer to
is u n k n o w n w h a t p e r c e n t a g e of (83.8%) of the people were indoors. concrete structural c o m p o n e n t s t h a t
households were interviewed or how The m o r t a l i t y rate was significantly have been fabricated at a factory and
s y s t e m a t i c a l l y the survey was carried greater for these individuals (55.1%) then transported to the c o n s t r u c t i o n
out. Unfortunately, we were not able t h a n for t h o s e w h o w e r e o u t d o o r s site for erection compared with
to d e t e r m i n e the n u m b e r of persons (8.8%) (P < .01) (Table 1). Injury rates poured-in-place concrete elements.
successfully extricated who died w e r e also s i g n i f i c a n t l y g r e a t e r for M o s t i n d u s t r i a l f a c i l i t i e s in t h e
later. those i n s i d e (36.3%) t h a n for t h o s e t o w n s s t u d i e d were of t h e precast-
T h e data were a n a l y z e d w i t h the outside (1.7%)(P < .01)(Table 1). c o n c r e t e f r a m e type, c o n s i s t i n g of
aid of the Statistical Analysis System Of t h e t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n , 60.1% precast concrete c o l u m n s and b e a m s
(SAS Institute, Cary, N o r t h Carolina). were reported to have been trapped. w e l d e d or t i e d t o g e t h e r to f o r m
The analyses included relative risk D e a t h rates were 81.4% for t r a p p e d frames (Figure 2); there was a s m a l l e r
c a l c u l a t i o n s and X2 tests of propor- individuals as c o m p a r e d w i t h a rate i n v e n t o r y of p r e c a s t - c o n c r e t e p a n e l
tion for simple comparisons. Statisti- of 1.2% for t h o s e w h o w e r e n o t s t r u c t u r e s . Of t h e s e t h r e e t y p e s of
cal significance was considered at P trapped (P < .01). Injury rates were b u i l d i n g systems, p o o r l y r e i n f o r c e d
< .05. 100% and 8.8%, respectively, for the or unreinforced stone m a s o n r y build-
19:8 August 1990 Annals of Emergency Medicine 893/77
4. EARTHQUAKE
Noji et al
TABLE 2. Effect of building type on survival m Nalband
Death
Building Type Buildings Occupants Rate Relative 95% Confidence
(%) (N) Risk Interval P
Stone masonry 38 415 12.8 (53) 1.0
Precast concrete panel 2 40 47.5 (19) 3.7 2.46 - 5.61 < .01
Precast concrete frame 8 577 87.0 (502) 6.8 5.29 - 8.78 < .01
Total 48 1,032 55.6 (574)
FIGURE 3. Live rescues as a function
of time after impact (total numbers
and cumulative percentage). Live Rescues Cumulative %
ings performed most poorly in terms !100
of n u m b e r of complete and partial 300
collapses.
According to statistics collected by
the A r m e n i a n Ministry of Internal
Affairs and the State Committee for
Construction, most of the fatalities
occurred in the collapse of these
stone m a s o n r y buildings (Table 2).
Precast-concrete frame type build-
'°°f
200
100
50
ings, however, were associated with
highest mortality per building. De- 0 "0
tailed statistics were available for 0 6 12 18 24 48 72 96 120 144 168
eight buildings of this type in Nal- Hours After Impact
band. Eighty-seven percent of the oc-
cupants were killed (Table 2). The
risk of death was 6.8 times greater in Live rescues ~ Cumulative %
these eight frame buildings than in *Data from Nalband, Katnatschur, and Geghasar.
stone m a s o n r y buildings based on
this limited sample (P < .01). In the 3
sample of precast frame buildings,
two of the structures that collapsed
resulted in an exceptionally high rate throat, and respiratory passages of Search and Rescue
of mortality. One was a sewing fac- these victims, suggesting that airway Rescue work was m o s t difficult
tory with 212 workers, of whom 205 obstruction and asphyxiation from during the first night when electric-
(97%) died. The other was a school dust were the causes of death. This ity and lights were unavailable; these
w i t h 302 children, of w h o m 285 forensic evidence was corroborated efforts had to be halted at several lo-
(94%) died. T h e p r e c a s t - c o n c r e t e by interviews with local residents of cations until the next morning. Oper-
panel buildings were also more lethal Nalband, who described large and ations in these three towns were
than the stone masonry structures (P dense dust clouds created by pulver- c o m p l i c a t e d by absence of street
< .01). ization of the stone and concrete markings, maps, and building plans.
Of 240 patients reported by the walls of falling buildings. Destroyed villages and small towns
Ministry of Health to be evacuated Data collected 14 days after the were isolated by numerous landslides
from the three towns, 23 (9.6%} de- earthquake on 4,832 patients admit- and impassable roads, which delayed
veloped crash syndrome as a result of ted throughout hospitals in Armenia r e l i e f t e a m s and p r e v e n t e d full
limb compression, and 11 {4.6%) de- (Table 3) showed that combination knowledge of the extent of the disas-
veloped secondary acute renal failure injuries constituted 1,918 (39.7%)of ter f r o m reaching the authorities.
requiring renal dialysis. All evacu- the cases. Superficial trauma such as Most of the initial rescue work and
ated patients were reported to suffer lacerations and contusions were the medical relief was carried out en-
from varying degrees of hypothermia. m o s t frequently observed (24.9%), tirely by local inhabitants. Of the 240
P o s t m o r t e m e x a m i n a t i o n s of eight f o l l o w e d by h e a d injuries (22%), trapped victims who were evacuated
victims removed from the site of a lower-extremity injuries (19%), crush for medical care in Yerevan, local
b u i l d i n g c o l l a p s e r e v e a l e d large syndrome (11%), and upper-extremity Civil Defense workers reported that
amounts of dust in the nasal cavities, trauma (10%). 228 (95%) were extricated by inhabi-
78/894 Annals of Emergency Medicine 19:8 August 1990
6. EARTHQUAKE
Noji et al
U n i t e d States has suffered eight survey of three building types in a survey of 3,619 survivors showed
earthquakes of similar or greater Nalband (eg, stone masonry, precast- that 93% of those who were trapped
m a g n i t u d e than that in Armenia. concrete panel, and precast-concrete and survived were extricated within
There is a high probability that a ma- frame) showed death rates of 12%, the first 24 hours. As suggested by
jor earthquake will hit the eastern 46%, and 87%, respectively, suggest- our data, if any significant reduction
United States in the next several de- ing that the type of building and col- in e a r t h q u a k e m o r t a l i t y is to be
cades. Building damage and life loss lapse pattern affect survival rates achieved, attention should be given
in such an event is predicted to be se- (Table 2). to appropriate search and rescue ac-
rious and widespread due to lack of Infill masonry, panels, and bricks tion within the first two days after
seismic codes and absence of earth- often fell off, killing persons both in- the impact.
quake preparedness programs. Other side and outside, and the frequent In the Italian study cited above,
states, such as Utah and Washington, collapse of stairways made it partic- 95% of the deaths recorded were
are also at risk from earthquakes, and ularly difficult for people to escape among those trapped in rubble who
despite recognition of the threat, mit 2 because many of these buildings had died before extrication. 22 Estimates
igation activities in these areas are only one stairway. In all three build- of survivability among entrapped vic-
inadequate. ing types, the collapse of nonstruc- tims buried under collapsed earthen
Past studies have stressed the im- tural e l e m e n t s s u c h as p a r a p e t s buildings in Turkey and China indi-
portance of critically analyzing earth- caused many serious injuries. The to- cate that within two to six hours,
quakes to develop methods of rapidly tal collapse ("disintegration") of the less than 50% of those buried are
assessing health-care needs and im- precast-concrete frame buildings was still alive.22, 2,~ Although it is not pos-
proving disaster relief.15 Epidemio- associated with particularly high sible to determine whether a trapped
logic studies on earthquake-related mortality rates (more than 90%) be- person died immediately or survived
injuries have indicated that a quan- cause the characteristic failure pat- for some time under the debris, it is
titative relationship may exist be- tern of this type of c o n s t r u c t i o n undoubtedly true that more people
tween morbidity and mortality.~6, t7 greatly complicated the search and might have been saved if they had
For example, in the Guatemala and rescue effort and reduced signifi- been extricated sooner. Safar, study-
Nicaragua earthquakes, the ratio of cantly the opportunity for occupant ing the 1980 earthquake in Italy, 2s
injured to dead was 3:1. In the area of survival. concluded that 25% to 50% of vic-
Armenia studied here, this ratio was We observed that the fragmenta- tims who were injured and died
reversed, that is, three dead for every tion of the floor system resulted in slowly could have been saved if ini-
person injured. This suggests the ex- very tight packing of the rubble with tial life-saving first aid had been ren-
traordinary lethality of the Armenian no cavities or "void spaces" for possi- dered immediately.
event. ble survival of victims. The distribu- There were major problems with
The Armenian earthquake was of tion and amount of void space in the extrication of trapped v i c t i m s be-
lesser magnitude than the 1989 Loma collapsed structure and the most cause of lack of adequate equipment
Prieta e a r t h q u a k e in C a l i f o r n i a . likely locations of those voids arc and trained rescue personnel. Pene-
However, its consequences were in- important in locating and rescuing trating concrete slabs and cutting
comparably greater, primarily be- trapped people quickly. Such infor- through columns and beams of the
cause of the design and quality of m a t i o n m a y help to guide future p r e c a s t - c o n c r e t e frame buildings
construction of buildings in the area. search and rescue o p e r a t i o n s by proved to be major obstacles in the
The primary cause of death, injury, pointing out those collapsed build- local rescue effort. No cutting tools
and destruction was the total col- ings that have the greatest proba- were available, and the tools that
lapse of buildings that were not ade- bility of containing survivors and by were available proved to be ineffec-
quately designed for earthquake re- indicating the location of likely void tive. The number of people available
sistance. spaces. to help rescue others was greatly re-
Past studies have shown that fac- As might be expected, entrapment duced because of the very high per-
tors determining the number of peo- appears to be the single most signifi- centage of people trapped and killed.
ple killed after a building collapses cant factor associated with death or This scarcity of rescue workers may
include entrapment, severity of their injury. Death rates were 67-fold and have contributed to the excessively
injuries, how long they can survive injury rates more than ll-fold those high mortality in the three towns ex-
without medical attention, and time for trapped than nontrapped people. amined. Most of the search and res-
to rescue and medical treatment.t8-2o Death rates for those inside greatly cue effort was late and, even at the
A 1977 s t u d y on the G u a t e m a l a exceeded those for persons outside; peak of activity, was seriously inade-
earthquake concluded that deaths more than 80% of those trapped died. quate.
and injuries are critically dependent This earthquake substantiated that In the three towns visited during
on housing damage and construction response time for search and rescue our reconnaissance mission, very lit-
materials used. 21 Results reported in is absolutely critical. Our observa- tle in the way of basic medical care
our study carry this concept further tion that the proportion of people was administered to persons who had
by suggesting that different building found alive declined with increasing been located and were actively being
types and structural systems have delay in extrication parallels the ob- extricated from the debris. The provi-
different collapse mechanisms and servations made in Italy after the sion of basic supportive care, such as
patterns of cavity formation when C a m p a n i a - I r p i n i a e a r t h q u a k e in IV fluids, might have gone a tong way
they fail under the influence of earth- 198022`23 and the Tangshan earth- toward reducing morbidity and mor-
quake ground motion. The limited quake in 1976. 24 In the Italian study, tality, particularly in preventing the
80/896 Annals of Emergency Medicine 19:8 August 1990
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19:8 August 1990 Annals of Emergency Medicine 897/81