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Dr. James P. Gaines
Chief Economist
February 12, 2016 · Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Macro Housing Issues
• Demographics: growing, shifting
• Affordability: workforce priced out of
ownership
• Capital: more equity
• Infrastructure: transportation, education,
utilities
• Development: Design, Density, Resources and
Processes
• Regulatory: lending; environmental; land use
• Federal
• State
• Local Growth Controls/Initiatives
National Housing Market
3
2016 National Housing Market
• Mortgage Rates: up ~0.5% over the year (4% 4.5%)
• Household Formations: ~1.25 million
• Rental Market: tight, low vacancies, higher rents
• Owner Market: sales volume and prices up ~5%
• Increased first-timers, millennials more active
• Single-family Rental: organized SF rental market
with institutional owners
• Home Construction: builders focused on design,
density, resources and processes
• Affordability: prices and rents increasing faster than
incomes – eventual constraint on market
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000 Jan-00
Jul-00
Jan-01
Jul-01
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Sources: US Census Bureau , NAR, SAAR
Existing SF Home Sales
New SF Home Sales
HomeSales000s
HomeSales000s
New and Existing SF Home Sales U.S.
NAHB HMI & SF Starts
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jan-90
Jul-90
Jan-91
Jul-91
Jan-92
Jul-92
Jan-93
Jul-93
Jan-94
Jul-94
Jan-95
Jul-95
Jan-96
Jul-96
Jan-97
Jul-97
Jan-98
Jul-98
Jan-99
Jul-99
Jan-00
Jul-00
Jan-01
Jul-01
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
HousingStarts,thousands
HMI
Housing Market Index Single-Family Starts
Source: NAHB, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
New SF Home Starts
1,012
970964
779
844
899
811813
1,151
1,309
1,132
888892
1,162
1,4511,433
1,194
852
705
663
1,0671,0841,072
1,179
1,146
1,081
1,003
895
840
1,030
1,126
1,198
1,076
1,161
1,134
1,271
1,303
1,231
1,273
1,359
1,499
1,610
1,716
1,465
1,046
622
445
471
431
535
618
648
726
935
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800 1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
*2015 & 2016 NAHB projections Apr 2015
Source: US Census Bureau; NAHB; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
1963-2002 average per year (1.06 million)
(000s SAAR)
Mortgage and Federal Funds Rate
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
Jan-90
Jan-91
Jan-92
Jan-93
Jan-94
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
InterestRate%
Fed Funds 30-YR FMR Mortgages
Source: Federal Reserve Board; FHLMC; Haver Analytics; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Mortgage and 10-Year Treasury Rates
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
Jan-90
Jan-91
Jan-92
Jan-93
Jan-94
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
InterestRate%
10-Year Treasury 30-YR FMR Mortgages
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FHLMC; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Texas Housing Market
10
Mortgage & Tenure Status of
Homes in Texas 2005 & 2014
2005 2014
Number of
Homes
Percent
of Total
Units
Number of
Homes
Percent
of Total
Units
Total Housing Units 9,026,011 10,426,760
Total Occupied Units 7,978,095 88.4% 9,227,197 89.0%
Total Renter-Occupied Housing
Units 2,815,491 35.3% 3,602,956 38.8%
Total Owner-Occupied Housing
Units 5,162,604 64.7% 5,674,241 61.2%
O-O units with a mortgage 3,237,790 62.7% 3,307,196 58.3%
O-O units without a mortgage 1,924,814 37.3% 2,367,045 41.7%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 American Community SurveySource: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 & 2014 American Community Survey
Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Annual Texas Home Sales
100,04799,619
107,107
116,604
122,134
121,823
138,123
146,395
170,638
184,056
188,738
196,401
201,528
216,147
241,020
266,842
292,805
275,584
232,381
213,334
203,637205,786
238,060
276,459
285,535
295,355
$50,000
$70,000
$90,000
$110,000
$130,000
$150,000
$170,000
$190,000
$210,000
$230,000
$250,000
$270,000
$290,000
$310,000
50,000
70,000
90,000
110,000
130,000
150,000
170,000
190,000
210,000
230,000
250,000
270,000
290,000
310,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015e
Sales Avg Price Md Price
2015 Record Year!!
Texas Monthly Home Sales & WTI Price/bl
January 1986 to Present
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
26,000
28,000
30,000
32,000
34,000
$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 $140 $150
1986-1989
1990-1995
1996-1999
2000-2005
2006-2009
2010-2015
Source: EIA; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
WTI Spot Price FOB Cushing, OK
Dec. ’15 1st month < $40 since Feb ‘09
2015 Home Sales and Median
Prices by Metro Areas
3.4%
9.1%
-2.5%
7.6%
10.7%
5.2%
3.8%
7.3%
7.1%
6.7%
9.8%
1.1%
11.3%
8.9%
-4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%
Texas
San Antonio
Houston
Fort Worth
El Paso
Dallas
Austin
Median Sales Price Sales Volume
Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Texas Months’ Inventory
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Apr-01
Jul-01
Oct-01
Jan-02
Apr-02
Jul-02
Oct-02
Jan-03
Apr-03
Jul-03
Oct-03
Jan-04
Apr-04
Jul-04
Oct-04
Jan-05
Apr-05
Jul-05
Oct-05
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
15
Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M
Inventory at extremely low level relative to market activity
Texas SF Building Permits
67,87066,161
78,714
103,252
84,565
67,964
59,143
43,975
35,90836,65838,233
46,209
59,543
69,96470,45270,421
83,13282,228
99,912101,928
108,782
111,915
122,913
137,493
151,384
166,203
163,032
120,366
81,107
68,230
68,170
67,254
81,926
93,478
103,045
107,300
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000 1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015e
Source: US Census Bureau, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M
2014 +10%
2015 +4%
1990-2014 average 94,693/year
Texas SF Permits & WTI Price/bl.
Monthly January 1991 to Current
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
17,000
18,000
$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 $140 $150
1991-1995
1996-1999
2000-2004
2005-2009
2010-2015
Source: U.S. Census; EIA; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Avg. Monthly WTI Spot Price FOB Cushing, Ok
Texas MF Building Permits
8,273
9,304
8,291
13,879
30,165
31,281
32,521
40,245
51,576
40,715
28,381
33,958
35,791
37,537
33,036
38,671
47,271
53,196
46,918
15,837
19,741
30,729
54,14553,615
64,135
65,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000 1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015e
Source: US Census Bureau, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M
2014 +20%
2015 +1%
1990-2014 average 34,368/year
Texas Residential Construction
Indexes (Jan. 2000=100)
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Jan-00
Jul-00
Jan-01
Jul-01
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
United States Coincident Index
Texas Coincident Index
Texas Leading Index
Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M
Texas Housing
Affordability
Price vs. Income
Texas Monthly Median Home Price
$70,000
$90,000
$110,000
$130,000
$150,000
$170,000
$190,000
$210,000
$230,000
Jan-95
Jul-95
Jan-96
Jul-96
Jan-97
Jul-97
Jan-98
Jul-98
Jan-99
Jul-99
Jan-00
Jul-00
Jan-01
Jul-01
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Median Price on Trend
Texas Average & Median Home Prices
12-Month Moving Average
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
$200,000
$220,000
$240,000
$260,000
$280,000
$300,000 Jan-99
Jul-99
Jan-00
Jul-00
Jan-01
Jul-01
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
22
Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Average Price
Median Price
Since Jan 2013, average
price is up 20.9% & median
price is up 26.0%
Texas Median HH Income & Median
Home Price Indexed to 1989
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015e
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Real HH Income
Nominal HH Income
Median Home Price
Texas Households by Highest
Affordable Price
1,682
858
689
644
576
526
893
645
1,007
602
538
450
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000
<$70,000
$70,000-$99,999
$100,000-$124,999
$125,000-$149,999
$150,000-$174,999
$175,000-$199,999
$200,000-$249,999
$250,000-$299,999
$300,000-$399,999
$400,000-$499,999
$500,000-$749,999
>$750,000
Thousands of Households
Source: US Census Bureau 2013 American Community Survey; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
18.5%
9.4%
7.6%
7.1%
6.3%
5.8%
9.8%
7.1%
11.1%
6.6%
20% down; 4.15% interest; 35%
qualifying ratio; and 5.5% taxes,
insurance & utilities
5.9%
4.9%
~43% of Texas HHs cannot afford
home priced > $150,000
Texas Households by Highest
Affordable Price
1,802
494
1,117
671
577
538
886
636
996
519
432
443
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000
<$70,000
$70,000-$99,999
$100,000-$124,999
$125,000-$149,999
$150,000-$174,999
$175,000-$199,999
$200,000-$249,999
$250,000-$299,999
$300,000-$399,999
$400,000-$499,999
$500,000-$749,999
>$750,000
Thousands of Households
Source: US Census Bureau 2013 American Community Survey; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
19.8%
5.4%
12.3%
7.4%
6.3%
5.9%
9.7%
7.0%
10.9%
5.7%
10% down; 4.15% interest; 35%
qualifying ratio; and 5.5% taxes,
insurance & utilities
4.7%
4.9%
~45% of Texas HHs cannot afford
home priced > $150,000
Texas Households by Highest
Affordable Price
1,885
927
730
678
589
530
867
660
956
465
385
438
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000
<$70,000
$70,000-$99,999
$100,000-$124,999
$125,000-$149,999
$150,000-$174,999
$175,000-$199,999
$200,000-$249,999
$250,000-$299,999
$300,000-$399,999
$400,000-$499,999
$500,000-$749,999
>$750,000
Thousands of Households
Source: US Census Bureau 2013 American Community Survey; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
19.8%
5.4%
12.3%
7.4%
6.3%
5.9%
9.7%
7.0%
10.9%
5.7%
3% down; 4.15% interest; 35%
qualifying ratio; and 5.5% taxes,
insurance & utilities
4.7%
4.9%
~46% of Texas HHs cannot afford
home priced > $150,000
December Closed Sales Texas MSAs
Y/Y Percent Change
Source: MetroTex; Texas Realtor®
Data Relevance Project, Real
Estate Center at Texas A&M
University
Dec. Sales +6%
YTD Sales +4%
December Average Sales Price/Sq.Ft.
Y/Y Percent Change
Source: MetroTex; Texas Realtor®
Data Relevance Project, Real
Estate Center at Texas A&M
University
Dec. P/SF +4%
YTD P/SF +6%
Md. Pr. YTD +7%
Dr. James P. Gaines
Chief Economist
February 12, 2016 · Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

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Texas housing market 2016

  • 1. Dr. James P. Gaines Chief Economist February 12, 2016 · Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
  • 2. Macro Housing Issues • Demographics: growing, shifting • Affordability: workforce priced out of ownership • Capital: more equity • Infrastructure: transportation, education, utilities • Development: Design, Density, Resources and Processes • Regulatory: lending; environmental; land use • Federal • State • Local Growth Controls/Initiatives
  • 4. 2016 National Housing Market • Mortgage Rates: up ~0.5% over the year (4% 4.5%) • Household Formations: ~1.25 million • Rental Market: tight, low vacancies, higher rents • Owner Market: sales volume and prices up ~5% • Increased first-timers, millennials more active • Single-family Rental: organized SF rental market with institutional owners • Home Construction: builders focused on design, density, resources and processes • Affordability: prices and rents increasing faster than incomes – eventual constraint on market
  • 6. NAHB HMI & SF Starts 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Jan-90 Jul-90 Jan-91 Jul-91 Jan-92 Jul-92 Jan-93 Jul-93 Jan-94 Jul-94 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 HousingStarts,thousands HMI Housing Market Index Single-Family Starts Source: NAHB, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
  • 7. New SF Home Starts 1,012 970964 779 844 899 811813 1,151 1,309 1,132 888892 1,162 1,4511,433 1,194 852 705 663 1,0671,0841,072 1,179 1,146 1,081 1,003 895 840 1,030 1,126 1,198 1,076 1,161 1,134 1,271 1,303 1,231 1,273 1,359 1,499 1,610 1,716 1,465 1,046 622 445 471 431 535 618 648 726 935 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 *2015 & 2016 NAHB projections Apr 2015 Source: US Census Bureau; NAHB; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 1963-2002 average per year (1.06 million) (000s SAAR)
  • 8. Mortgage and Federal Funds Rate 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 InterestRate% Fed Funds 30-YR FMR Mortgages Source: Federal Reserve Board; FHLMC; Haver Analytics; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
  • 9. Mortgage and 10-Year Treasury Rates 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 InterestRate% 10-Year Treasury 30-YR FMR Mortgages Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FHLMC; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
  • 11. Mortgage & Tenure Status of Homes in Texas 2005 & 2014 2005 2014 Number of Homes Percent of Total Units Number of Homes Percent of Total Units Total Housing Units 9,026,011 10,426,760 Total Occupied Units 7,978,095 88.4% 9,227,197 89.0% Total Renter-Occupied Housing Units 2,815,491 35.3% 3,602,956 38.8% Total Owner-Occupied Housing Units 5,162,604 64.7% 5,674,241 61.2% O-O units with a mortgage 3,237,790 62.7% 3,307,196 58.3% O-O units without a mortgage 1,924,814 37.3% 2,367,045 41.7% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 American Community SurveySource: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 & 2014 American Community Survey
  • 12. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University Annual Texas Home Sales 100,04799,619 107,107 116,604 122,134 121,823 138,123 146,395 170,638 184,056 188,738 196,401 201,528 216,147 241,020 266,842 292,805 275,584 232,381 213,334 203,637205,786 238,060 276,459 285,535 295,355 $50,000 $70,000 $90,000 $110,000 $130,000 $150,000 $170,000 $190,000 $210,000 $230,000 $250,000 $270,000 $290,000 $310,000 50,000 70,000 90,000 110,000 130,000 150,000 170,000 190,000 210,000 230,000 250,000 270,000 290,000 310,000 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e Sales Avg Price Md Price 2015 Record Year!!
  • 13. Texas Monthly Home Sales & WTI Price/bl January 1986 to Present 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000 24,000 26,000 28,000 30,000 32,000 34,000 $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 $140 $150 1986-1989 1990-1995 1996-1999 2000-2005 2006-2009 2010-2015 Source: EIA; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University WTI Spot Price FOB Cushing, OK Dec. ’15 1st month < $40 since Feb ‘09
  • 14. 2015 Home Sales and Median Prices by Metro Areas 3.4% 9.1% -2.5% 7.6% 10.7% 5.2% 3.8% 7.3% 7.1% 6.7% 9.8% 1.1% 11.3% 8.9% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% Texas San Antonio Houston Fort Worth El Paso Dallas Austin Median Sales Price Sales Volume Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
  • 16. Texas SF Building Permits 67,87066,161 78,714 103,252 84,565 67,964 59,143 43,975 35,90836,65838,233 46,209 59,543 69,96470,45270,421 83,13282,228 99,912101,928 108,782 111,915 122,913 137,493 151,384 166,203 163,032 120,366 81,107 68,230 68,170 67,254 81,926 93,478 103,045 107,300 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e Source: US Census Bureau, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M 2014 +10% 2015 +4% 1990-2014 average 94,693/year
  • 17. Texas SF Permits & WTI Price/bl. Monthly January 1991 to Current 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 13,000 14,000 15,000 16,000 17,000 18,000 $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 $140 $150 1991-1995 1996-1999 2000-2004 2005-2009 2010-2015 Source: U.S. Census; EIA; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University Avg. Monthly WTI Spot Price FOB Cushing, Ok
  • 18. Texas MF Building Permits 8,273 9,304 8,291 13,879 30,165 31,281 32,521 40,245 51,576 40,715 28,381 33,958 35,791 37,537 33,036 38,671 47,271 53,196 46,918 15,837 19,741 30,729 54,14553,615 64,135 65,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e Source: US Census Bureau, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M 2014 +20% 2015 +1% 1990-2014 average 34,368/year
  • 19. Texas Residential Construction Indexes (Jan. 2000=100) 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 United States Coincident Index Texas Coincident Index Texas Leading Index Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M
  • 21. Texas Monthly Median Home Price $70,000 $90,000 $110,000 $130,000 $150,000 $170,000 $190,000 $210,000 $230,000 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University Median Price on Trend
  • 22. Texas Average & Median Home Prices 12-Month Moving Average $80,000 $100,000 $120,000 $140,000 $160,000 $180,000 $200,000 $220,000 $240,000 $260,000 $280,000 $300,000 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 22 Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University Average Price Median Price Since Jan 2013, average price is up 20.9% & median price is up 26.0%
  • 23. Texas Median HH Income & Median Home Price Indexed to 1989 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 250 260 270 280 290 300 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 250 260 270 280 290 300 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University Real HH Income Nominal HH Income Median Home Price
  • 24. Texas Households by Highest Affordable Price 1,682 858 689 644 576 526 893 645 1,007 602 538 450 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 <$70,000 $70,000-$99,999 $100,000-$124,999 $125,000-$149,999 $150,000-$174,999 $175,000-$199,999 $200,000-$249,999 $250,000-$299,999 $300,000-$399,999 $400,000-$499,999 $500,000-$749,999 >$750,000 Thousands of Households Source: US Census Bureau 2013 American Community Survey; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 18.5% 9.4% 7.6% 7.1% 6.3% 5.8% 9.8% 7.1% 11.1% 6.6% 20% down; 4.15% interest; 35% qualifying ratio; and 5.5% taxes, insurance & utilities 5.9% 4.9% ~43% of Texas HHs cannot afford home priced > $150,000
  • 25. Texas Households by Highest Affordable Price 1,802 494 1,117 671 577 538 886 636 996 519 432 443 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 <$70,000 $70,000-$99,999 $100,000-$124,999 $125,000-$149,999 $150,000-$174,999 $175,000-$199,999 $200,000-$249,999 $250,000-$299,999 $300,000-$399,999 $400,000-$499,999 $500,000-$749,999 >$750,000 Thousands of Households Source: US Census Bureau 2013 American Community Survey; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 19.8% 5.4% 12.3% 7.4% 6.3% 5.9% 9.7% 7.0% 10.9% 5.7% 10% down; 4.15% interest; 35% qualifying ratio; and 5.5% taxes, insurance & utilities 4.7% 4.9% ~45% of Texas HHs cannot afford home priced > $150,000
  • 26. Texas Households by Highest Affordable Price 1,885 927 730 678 589 530 867 660 956 465 385 438 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 <$70,000 $70,000-$99,999 $100,000-$124,999 $125,000-$149,999 $150,000-$174,999 $175,000-$199,999 $200,000-$249,999 $250,000-$299,999 $300,000-$399,999 $400,000-$499,999 $500,000-$749,999 >$750,000 Thousands of Households Source: US Census Bureau 2013 American Community Survey; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 19.8% 5.4% 12.3% 7.4% 6.3% 5.9% 9.7% 7.0% 10.9% 5.7% 3% down; 4.15% interest; 35% qualifying ratio; and 5.5% taxes, insurance & utilities 4.7% 4.9% ~46% of Texas HHs cannot afford home priced > $150,000
  • 27. December Closed Sales Texas MSAs Y/Y Percent Change Source: MetroTex; Texas Realtor® Data Relevance Project, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University Dec. Sales +6% YTD Sales +4%
  • 28. December Average Sales Price/Sq.Ft. Y/Y Percent Change Source: MetroTex; Texas Realtor® Data Relevance Project, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University Dec. P/SF +4% YTD P/SF +6% Md. Pr. YTD +7%
  • 29. Dr. James P. Gaines Chief Economist February 12, 2016 · Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas