This document discusses strategies for agriculture in a changing climate. It notes that CO2 and greenhouse gas emissions are increasing global temperatures faster than expected, especially in the Northeast United States. Farmers will need to adapt practices to increasing heat waves, less snow, and more extreme precipitation events. The document provides numerous sources and tools to help farmers evaluate climate risks and implement adaptation strategies at various timescales. It emphasizes remaining flexible and learning from other regions' experiences in sustainably tending existing crops while developing new resilient options.

1. TENDING OLD ROOTS WHILE
SOWING NEW SEEDS IN A
CHANGING CLIMATE
JOHN G. VAN HOESEN
GREEN MOUNTAIN COLLEGE

2. • OUR CO2 [GHG] CRUSH
• BACK TO THE FUTURE
• THE MODERN ALTAR OF ZEUS
• A NEW YARDSTICK

5. Source: Ruddiman (2003)

6. Source: Marlon et al. (2016) - “Climatic history of the northeastern United States during the past 3000 years"

7. Source: Kerr et al. (2009) - “Making hay while the sun shines? Socio-economic change, cereal production and climatic deterioration in
Early Medieval Ireland.”

8. Source: Büngten et al (2011) - “2500 Years of Climate Variability and Human Susceptibility"

9. 1783-1784 Laki Eruption

10. He [Zeus] benignly gives helpful signs
to men, and rouses people to work,
reminding them of their livelihood, tells
when the soil is best for oxen and
mattocks, and tells when the seasons
are right for planting trees and for
sowing every kind of seed
- Aratus of Soli, Hellenistic Poet

12. Source: http://j-vh.me/2o5ED0y

13. Source: http://j-vh.me/2o5HcQh

14. Source: Büngten et al (2011) - “2500 Years of Climate Variability and Human Susceptibility"

16. ????
There are known knowns. These are
things we know that we know. There are
known unknowns. That is to say, there
are things that we know we don't know.
But there are also unknown unknowns.
There are things we don't know we
don't know.
- Donald Rumsfeld

17. Source: https://xkcd.com/1379/

18. Source: http://j-vh.me/2o5ObsE

19. Source: http://j-vh.me/2o5ObsE

20. ✦ Temp range of ~3.7℉ to 9.54℉
✦ 80% of the models = Global Average ~3.6℉ by 2050
✦ Northeast will warm ~5.4℉ by 2050 (e.g.- FASTER)
✦ ‘Extreme’ precip, less snow, heat waves, summer drought, etc.
✦ ENSO = ~15-35% variation in global wheat, oilseeds, & grains
Source: Grund and Walberg (2013)

21. Accumulated Frost Days
Growing Season Length
Plant Heat Stress
Start Of Field Operations
Source: Monier and Snyder (2016)

22. http://j-vh.me/2o5O2oQ
National Climate Assessment

23. https://toolkit.climate.gov/

24. https://toolkit.climate.gov/climate-explorer2/
Climate Explorer

25. http://www.climatedata.us/
ClimateDATA.US

26. http://climatewizard.org/

27. AD&$%&TION?
✦ Define an appropriate scale [Daily vs. Annual vs. Decadal]
✦ Remain flexible with adaptation strategies [Science changes!]
✦ Learn from analogues [U.S. AND emerging counties]
✦ Season extension v2.0 [Climate variability]
✦ Technology = sidekick [Drought or pests]
✦ Low hanging fruit? [Crops, water, soil]
✦ Avoid Zeus [Raised fields?]

28. https://www.epa.gov/raine

29. https://www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/

30. https://nassgeodata.gmu.edu/CropScape/
CropScape

31. http://climatesmartfarming.org/tools/

32. https://coolfarmtool.org/

33. http://northcentralwater.org/acpf/

34. http://agroclimate.org/

35. https://adaptationworkbook.org/

38. Source: http://j-vh.me/2o6GouB

39. Source: http://j-vh.me/2o6wNUr

40. • OUR CO2 [GHG] CRUSH
• BACK TO THE FUTURE
• THE MODERN ALTAR OF ZEUS
• A NEW YARDSTICK

41. Source: http://www.davidrumsey.com/luna/servlet/s/kx0g35
QUESTIONS?