The document provides a comprehensive analysis of tantalum production, demand, and recyclability, highlighting a significant decline in primary mine production due to various factors, including geopolitical issues in Africa. It notes the increasing demand for tantalum from high-tech industries and a reliance on artisanal mining and recycling to meet future needs. Despite current challenges, global reserves are projected to be sufficient for the next 500 years, while the market dynamics could change due to evolving production conditions in Australia and Brazil.

1. Nabeel A Mancheri
nabeelmnc@gmail.com
Tantalum Production, Demand Actual
Consumption and Recyclability
NABEEL MANCHERI
nabeelmnc@gmail.com

2. Industry overview
Stable supply with moderate demand growth-
(Apart from cases of stolen or missing containers in Africa)
Primary mine production down by half and increasing
restrictions on conflict-produced tantalum is complicating the
supply chain
Effect of SEC act, which requires US-listed companies to report
sources of materials, causing conflict-free tantalum (contract)
prices to increase
Demand, driven by high technology and super alloy industries,
expected to increase moderately
Increased dependence on artisanal and small scale mining in
Africa
Increased supply from scrap and recycle 2

3. Source: John P. Sykes, 2015
Estimated global reserves and resources of tantalum are large and more than sufficient to
meet global demand for the foreseeable future, possibly the next 500 years. Therefore,
geologic availability does not appear to be a major concern for the supply of tantalum.

4. Tantalum Mine Production (in Metric Tons)
Source: USGS, 2016

5. In Central Africa, a zone of Neoproterozoic-age tantalum-mineralised pegmatites cuts the
Mezoproterozoic Kibaraan belt which extends through Burundi, Rwanda,
Uganda and DRC. Coltan is mined both from deeply weathered pegmatites and from
secondary placer deposits derived from the pegmatites.

6. Source: United States Geological Survey (USGS)
Rwanda, Democratic Republic of the Congo,
and Brazil were the leading global producers
of tantalum mineral concentrates in 2014.
The Democratic Republic of the Congo
increased tantalum production in 2013 and
2014 and replaced Brazil as the second
leading producer
Future Possibilities
The market can completely change in next 10 years with marginal increase in prices,
production can get back on track in Australia and Brazil as the reserves dry-up in African
countries.
Unless new reserves are discovered again in Africa which is suitable for artisanal and
small scale mining

7. Primary Supply
Primary mine production has declined almost half
•Primary mine production has decreased from 2000 tonnes in 2002
to 1200 tonnes in 2014
•Resulting in declining inventories and stockpiles
Stockpiles depleted
•US Defense Logistics Agency historically 2nd largest seller of
tantalum (350,000 – 500,000 lbs per year) now depleted (2009)
Tantalum mine shut downs
•Wodgina Mine, Global Advanced Metals – second shut down in
January 2012; once produced 1.4M lbs per annum or 25-35% of
world supply at its peak
•Kenticha – shut down May 2012 due to issues of radioactivity;
current small operation remaining, former capacity ~450,000 lbs
per annum
•Tanco Mine, Cabot Corp – second shut down May 2013; former
capacity ~250,000 lbs per annum; reached the end of its mine life
after 40 years
•Marropino Mine, Noventa – shut down August 2013; former
capacity ~450,000 lbs per annum at peak
Larger portion of African production cannot be certified as conflict-
free
•US Dodd-Frank legislation requires key buyers to purchase only
certified conflict-free material
•Additional industry voluntary measures to ensure conflict-free
material
Increasing amount ending up with Chinese smelters

8. Tantalum Supply Chain
(7%)
(22%)
(12%)
(41%)
(18%)
Based on USGS, 2014; BGS, 2011; CML-Desire.

9. 19
16
15
7
4 3 3 3
2 1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
MILLIONS
Net Weight (in tons) Trade Value
103
49
35
25
12 10
6 4 4 2 0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
MILLIONS
Net Weight (in tons) Trade Value
Exports of Niobium, tantalum and vanadium ores and concentrates in 2014 and 2010
AMG-Mibra and
Pitinga mine

10. Tantalum flow from Africa in 2014
Source: Based on USGS and UNCOMTRADE, 2016
6500

11. Export of Tantalum and articles thereof including waste & scrap (8103)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
MILLIONS
TONNES
Trade Quantity Trade Value
22,32
238,19
58
203,18
147,18
265,19
435,48
180,34
212,8 215,03
175,53
240,38
36,52
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
AVERAGEPRICEUSD/KG
Average export price (per kg in USD)

12. Export of Tantalum and articles (in million USD)
2000 2005 2010 2014
China 96304622 78254433 223070997 256334050
EU-28 49745836 118596302 59362114 84729859
Japan 170124230 200582864 221694493 190546784
USA 147605236 187558455 200482824 266580744
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
MILLIONUSD

13. Potential of Recycling Tantalum

14. Product description
Concentration
(kg Ta/kg product)
Source of concentration data Assumptions
concentrates 0.00211456
The content of tantalum concentrates is a balancing factor on
the raw material supply side, so we increase the concentration
in order to fulfill the demand of tantalum ingots, powder,
metal and oxides.
articles 1 Assuming tantalum articles are 100% tantalum
carbides 6.794E-05
Derived Based on the (BGS, 2011) we assumed that tantalum articles
represent 76% of tantalum consumption, in addition, the
carbide consumption represents 7%, so the carbide
concentration is adjusted to match 100% of the consumption
of carbide tools, which was the only application of carbides
found in the tantalum supply chain matrix in the (EU, 2013)
study.
capacitors 0.367 (Ecoinvent, 2007)
HDD 0.019
(Nunney et al., 2011),
(Hitachi, 2007)
Assuming a 10,5% weight of the data platter (Yan et al, 2013).
And an average tantalum content of the (perpendicular
recording) platter according to the two sources.
Artificial joints 0.175 (Zardiackas et al. 2006) Based on new medical alloys discussed in source
camera lenses 0.046 (Kodak, 1941)
vision correction
lenses 0.00184
assuming 2% market share for glass lenses
(myeyeware2go.com), assuming Kodak glass (same as ‘camera
lenses’ , see below).
other lenses 0.00184 Same as vision correction lenses
Tantalum concentration in the selected products
Mobile phones 0.00041
(Christian et al., 2012) &
(Oguchi, 2011)
Average of 39 phones in two studies (additionally assuming
130 grams/phone based on (GSM Association, 2006).
Laptop PCs 0.00103 (Oguchi, 2011) The values here, given by the study by Oguchi only describes
the tantalum content in the printed wiring boards of notebooks
& PCs (thus capturing the tantalum content in the micro-
electronics, but not in the harddisk). The tantalum content in
their harddisks is accounted separately.Desktop PCs 0.00088
(Oguchi, 2011)

15. Cameras 0.00142
(Oguchi, 2011) Similar to PCs, the tantalum composition of cameras given
here applies only for the printed wiring board. The tantalum
contained in the camera lenses is simply added to the overall
camera composition in the results.
hearing aid 0.04667
Based on (enginieeringprojects.com, 2014), we assumed 3
tantalum capacitors of a weight of 0.14 g (average of two
types, according to Ecoinvent, 2007) in a total product weight
of 9 grams (Alibaba.com, 2014)
pacemakers 0.0186
Based on (Haddad and Serdijn, 2009), we assumed the use of
10 tantalum capacitors of a weight of 0.14 g (average of two
types, according to Ecoinvent, 2007) in a total product weight
of 28 grams (Medtronic, 2014).
GPS 0.0043
According to (Philips, 2009) a GPS device contains 6 tantalum
capacitors of a weight of 0.14 g (average of two types,
according to Ecoinvent, 2007) in a total average product
weight of 195 grams (Recreation GPS Review, 2014)
DVD players 0.00001078 (Oguchi, 2011)
furnaces 6.2E-05 (JRC, 2013)
carbide tools 0.0007966
Derived Assuming that all tantalum carbides are used in carbide tools,
the tantalum content was derived as the tantalum input
divided over the mass of the tools.
TVs 0.0008
Automotive
(vehicles) 5.8E-06
(Cullbrand & Magnusson,
2011)
Wavefilters 0.3305
Average material content of two types of surface acoustic
wavefilters described by (Abbott, 2005) and (Strijbos et al.,
2007)
Semiconductors 0.286
(Ecoinvent, 2007) average of "diode, glass-, SMD type, for surface mounting, at
plant" (32 mg) & "transistor, SMD type, for surface mounting,
at plant" (0.593 g)
Tantalum concentration in the selected products
Product description
Concentration
(kg Ta/kg product)
Source of concentration data Assumptions

16. Product stage Export Import Production Apparent Consumption
Concentrates Raw material 7 597 10 600
Carbides Raw material 3 10 31 38
Articles Raw material 345 493 254 401
wave filters Sub-component 2 3 2 3
Semiconductors Sub-component 46 39 32 25
other lenses Sub-component 3 6 5 8
camera lenses Sub-component 21 151 16 147
HDD Sub-component 103 635 5 537
Capacitors Sub-component 183 100 398 315
Cameras Final product 16 196 5 185 (331 including
lenses)
TVs Final product 25 57 195 226
DVD players Final product 0.1 2.2 0.3 2
Artificial joints Final product 53 61 184 192
hearing aid Final product 15 28 30 42
pacemakers Final product 4 6 9.5 12
GPS Final product 0.5 0.6 2.6 3
vision correction lenses Final product 3 18 12 27
Mobile phones Final product 122 213 216 307
passenger cars Final product 7 16 90 98
public transport vehicles Final product 0.5 0.1 0.3 0
freight vehicles Final product 4 3 26 24
carbide tools Final product 3 2 38 37
furnaces Final product 6 1 15 9
Laptop PCs Final product 21 149 61 189
Desktop PCs Final product 138 123 209 195
Tantalum containing products & their trade and production flows (expressed in tons
tantalum) for Europe in 2007
Source Deetman et al 2016, CML-Desire Project

17. Annual Tantalum flows through the EU27 in 2007
Source Deetman et al 2016, CML-Desire Project
>2550

18. Final product Shape
(β)
Scale
(𝜂)
Average
lifetime
(yr)
Reference category & source probability density function
vision correction lenses 1.4 7.6 6.9 Small medical, (Wang et al, 2013)
Cutting Tools 2.6 15.7 13.9 Small tools, (Wang et al, 2013)
Furnaces 2.218 26.7 23.6 (OEERE, 2008)
Mobile phones 3.66 7.59 6.8 (Polak et al., 2012)
Cameras (video/still) 1.4 8.2 7.5 (Wang et al, 2013)
Desktop PCs 2.1 9.6 8.5 (Wang et al, 2013)
Laptop PCs 1.5 5.2 4.7 (Wang et al, 2013)
External HDD & servers 2.30 13.74 12.2 (Pasha et al., 2006)
DVD players 1.7 10.5 9.4 Video & projection, (Wang et al, 2013)
GPS 1.7 9.6 8.6 Small monitoring, (Wang et al, 2013)
TVs 2.1 12 10.6 FPD TVs, (Wang et al, 2013)
Hearing aid 1.4 7.6 6.9 Small medical, (Wang et al, 2013)
Pacemakers 1.4 7.6 6.9 Small medical, (Wang et al, 2013)
Artificial joints 2.6 19.2 17.1 Prof. medical, (Wang et al, 2013)
Aerospace 0.65 10.2 13.9 Airplanes, (Nomura, 2013)
Automotive 1.89 10.3 9.1 Passenger cars, (Nomura, 2013)
Source Deetman et al 2016, CML-Desire Project

19. Expected waste generation profile of tantalum contained in products consumed in 2007 in EU
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
MetricTons
NetWeight Trade Value (millions) Average price USD/Kg
Trade in Tantalum Waste & Scrap
Tantalum can be
recovered from waste
metals and scrap and
account for about 20
percent of total supply.
Tantalum is recovered
from a number of
different items
including cemented
carbides and alloys,
sputtering targets, edge
trimmings and limited
amount from capacitors
(BGS, 2011)

20. Trade in Tantalum Waste & Scrap
112
153
177 178
111 118
69
244
263
302
135
162
119
232 240
144
233
152 160
178
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2020-F 2025-F
M
e
t
r
i
c
T
o
n
s
Export Import
Export and Import of EU-28 in tantalum waste & scrap
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2020-F 2025-F
827,146
983,866
1030,326
1107,15
1212,534
1334,151
1601,381
MetricTons

21. Tantalite basis 30% Ta2O5 (EU) $/lb Ta2O5 prices
Source: Metal Pages, 2016
Tantalum is sold in several forms, each
commanding a different price.
•Concentrate, priced as $/lb of Ta2O5
contained
•Oxide, priced as $/kg or $/lb of Ta2O5
•Finished products, such as capacitor-
grade powder, sold as $/lb of Ta metal
Tantalum is not openly traded on any
metal exchange, such as copper or gold.
•Long term contract prices are
negotiated between buyer and seller
and generally remain confidential
•Spot prices are typically lower than
long term contract prices – the current
average for Tantalite basis 30% Ta2O5
(EU) $/lb is 58.5 and for Ta2O5 is 285
$/kg, which was 525 in 2011
•Prices for certified conflict-free
material are at an additional premium

22. Tantalum min 99.8% (EU) $/kg prices
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
jun-11
dec-
11
jun-12
dec-
12
jun-13
dec-
13
jun-14
dec-
14
jun-15
dec-
15
jan-16
Low 500 490 480 505 485 400 390 365 360 265 270
Hight 550 550 530 535 510 440 440 400 390 290 300
What influences price
• Moderate demand from high technology
end users
•Closing of the Wodgina, Kenticha, Tanco
and Marropino Mines had no impact
•Lack of viable new development projects
•SEC ruling and other voluntary and
legislated requirements to use conflict-free
tantalum had only short term impact
Conflict-free prices are highly confidential
•Not openly traded on exchanges
•Confidential contracts between buyers
and sellers
•Conflict-free tantalum sells at a significant
premium
•Conflict-free material is in higher demand
and sold via long-term contracts and
not significantly affected by current market
volatility
Source: Metal Pages, 2016
Lower prices are reported to be offered in China, where
only three tantalum processors so far (F & X, Ninxia and
RFH) have obtained EICC-GeSI “conflict-free smelter”
certification
Current market prices are not a great incentive to either to new
producers or to investors

23. Cash costs
Cost per Tonne Milled
($/t) (½ lb Ta/ton)
Cost per Kg Ta2O5
($/kg) payable
Mining 20 170
Process 14 110
Material Handling 0.70 26
G&A 2.00 6
Total 36.7 312
Production and average operating costs of the major developers
Average operating cost estimation of a Hard-rock mine
They are expensive operations and need a minimum price to produce economically
Tantalite market is now
trading at $55-60/lb
Ta2O5 and Tantalum min
99.8% is trading at 270
to 300/kg. This is the
lowest price, in absolute
terms, seen since June
2008 when tantalum was
a much less regulated
market without the
associated social and
compliance costs.
*Acquisition by GMC from Galaxy Resources and planned to start production

24. NPV Sensitivity to Price

25. Actual case of a on-hold project

26. 26
• Huge data gap exists between production and final consumption
• Producing responsible products also requires sourcing of conflict-free socially
responsible components and raw materials
• Except for the Dodd-Frank act there is no nationally binding operational
schemes that helps industry to source their components and raw materials in
responsible manner
• For metals e.g. used in electronics this is more difficult because of the lack of
transparency in the supply chains and the many steps between mining and
finished product
• Introduction of strong certificate schemes are far from perfect they provide the
opportunity for industry to make responsible choices
• Strengthening certificate schemes for metals and electronic components will
offer opportunities for Western raw materials producers to (re-) enter the
mining and refining market
Concluding Remarks

27. The market for tantalum is maturing and is expected to show the moderate rate of
growth in demand -
Superalloys, along with sputtering targets and tantalum chemicals, have probably the
highest demand growth potential in the coming years
Continued growth is expected in sectors such as aerospace and land-based gas
turbines, prompting the demand for superalloys
Commitment by multinational OEMs on responsible sourcing will have ripple effect on
Chinese component producers
Increased compliance by Chinse smelters on conflict free tantalum may push price
upward and reduce the gap between spot and contract prices