This document provides an analysis of the sugar market. It notes that sugar surpluses have eroded to near equilibrium levels. While not outright bullish, this suggests the market may consider a potential deficit if prices remain under $0.20 per pound. Both technical and money flow signals indicate major speculators are now buying, suggesting sugar prices could rise over the next year. A break above $0.20 could trigger a significant advance, as weather conditions threaten Brazil's 2014 harvest and the potential for supply deficits in 2015-2016. The analysis concludes prices will likely test the $0.20 area in the near term, despite fundamental bearishness remaining.

1. The information contained herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable, but of which we have not independently verified. CenturyFinancial
Brokers L.L.C. (CFB) assumes no responsibility for errors, inaccuracies or commissions in these materials, nor shall it be liable for damages arising out
of any person's reliance upon this information. DISCLAIMER: This overview can be used only for informational purposes. CFB is not responsible for any
losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
Current Market Price 18.57
Target 1 20.00
Target 2 25.55
Stop Loss
Recommendation Buy above 17.50
Sugar
October 8, 2013
Outlook and Performance

2. Sugar
The information contained herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable, but of which we have not independently verified. CenturyFinancial
Brokers L.L.C. (CFB) assumes no responsibility for errors, inaccuracies or commissions in these materials, nor shall it be liable for damages arising out
of any person's reliance upon this information. DISCLAIMER: This overview can be used only for informational purposes. CFB is not responsible for any
losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
Performance & Outlook
The sugar market has seen the massive surpluses from the last several years erode away to levels that are near
equilibrium. While this is not a reason to be bullish but it is a reason for the market to consider whether this trend will
continue should prices remain under $.20/pound. We personally think it is way too early to play a possible deficit
scenario for the 2015/2016 crop cycle but recent price action that has generated an initial technical buy signal as well as a
major money flow buy signal suggest the big money is ready to play it now.
We think the specs are betting that the current balanced market remains very weather exposed and could easily tip the
scales into a major deficit situation in short order for 2014/2015 crop season. Even with good weather it seems that
recent data would push this market into a deficit for 2015/2016.
The big money speculators think and they have decided to dramatically alter their yearlong liquidation effort and have
now become major buyers. This kind of a change in money flow is very significant and likely suggests a bullish period for
sugar prices over the next year.
Technical Analysis
Also a major technical buy signal has also been achieved by breaking out above a prolific downtrending wedge pattern.
Any move over $.20/pound could set off a runaway advance in sugar prices. All eyes will be on Brazilian weather and crop
prospects for their 2014 harvest season. Any adverse weather could light a fire under sugar prices. Already very wet
weather is hampering yield potential and raising fears of supply deficits as early as next year.
Bottom-line is that sugar prices look they are heading higher to test the $.20/pound area for now. We remain
fundamentally bearish this market but must appreciate the bullish turn suggesting a more constructive tone.