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Phemey Pon
The economy…
The key to managing crisis…

Is to keep an eye on the long term...

While you are dancing in the flames.



                    Chairman of Royal Bank of Scotland
                                    Sir Philip Hampton
(1)
We are the worst…
Morgan Stanley



                 $89 @14Jun 2007




                          $20 @16Feb 2009


Drop by 78%
Goldman Sach



               $248 @31Oct 2007




                      $86 @16Feb 2009


Drop by 65%
CBRE


              $41.3 @9Jul 2007




                       $3.3 @16Feb 2009


Drop by 92%
DTZ


         $835 @25Dec 2006




                      $35 @16Feb 2009


Drop by 96%
Despite the economy…
(2)
Property funds investing in China
How property deals
  are evaluated?
Evaluate by IRR, Why?
Begin with an end in mind

Sequences of events planned
  - when to renovate, refinance & exit

Objective comparison made possible
IRR from first principle




               =>

Initial cash accumulate annually   @17%
IRR & financial engineering
IRR - 100% equity must attractive

then enhanced by:
  -high gearing
  -vendor financing
  -quick refinancing
  -short holding period
Asset Management enhancement
  office building of 60,000 sf
Upon acquisition
          Unit rent pm = $5.6 + $4.4 =$10
          Unit rent pa = $120
          Unit CV at 4% return =$3,000
24 months after asset mgt
          Unit rent pm = 12+8.8+5 =$25.8
          Unit rent pa = $309.6
          Unit CV at 5% return =$6,192



                       IRR=110%
Asset Management Proposal
rental goal
Proposed Rental Goal

Average unit rent




                       Year
% Increase over
previous year

    Average unit rent




                        Year
Breakdowns
                                 5
Skillful neg & lease admin       2
                             9



Repositioning                4




                       1             3
Attention to every $1 av. rent
 $20M value increase

        ($1 x 80,000 x 12) / 5%




          $1 av. rent increase
What’s in it for you?
Opportunities of
Mainland property developers
What’s in it for you?
Opportunities in
Saigon of Vietnam
19 Aug 2007
25 Aug 2007
Marketing materials to media
1. Why Saigon now?



2. What strategies we use?



3. What have we done successfully?
Why Saigon now?
Shanghai of   Saigon of
China         Vietnam
Shanghai 10 years ago
GDP $2,200

         =
1995          2006
GDP Growth 2001-2007

      11%
1
    2
Govt welcome foreign investment
Strong demand on office
2
Total stock = 350,000   m
2


    1   1
0% vacancy
Strong demand on hotel
7,700 rooms only
50% of Hong Kong rates
Need 20,000 new rooms in 2011
Strong demand on serviced
         apartment
2,500 units
Long
Waiting list
Best timing
Jan 2007
What strategies we use?
•   –

•   –
-

Price – GDP growth
Cost - Inflation
                                                                     Profit

                                                             8253
                                                             15200
                                                     7572
                                                     14000
                                             6947
                                             12800
                                     11700
                                     6373
                             10700
                             5847
                      9900
                      5364
                 4291
                 9000                          4224
                                     3759 3985
            8300
            4515
  7000 4142                3346 3546
       7600
  3800           2978 3156
  2500 2650 2809
149
                      6
                                      83
                      10
                           3
    1   ,         ,
                               57
                               35
            15
            10
3
            10%                30%         60%
NPV @ 6% = 46
IRR = 56%
                        66



                  22
            5
3
            10%   30%   60%
4   => 46
DCF valuation magic
–         - Deal in CBD


• Selling price = USD2,500

• AV=USD500 Bldg Cost=USD750


• Profit Margin = 50%


• IRR (full equity)     25%
What have we done
  successfully?
–

                      m2
             =1,350
    20,000


    CBD
– Deals in CBD –
What’s in it for you?
(3)
www.sethgodin.com
Content – domain knowledge


 • People you know

 • Skills you’ve developed
Process
– emotional intelligence skill

  • Visualizing success

  • Persuading other people of your
    point of view
  • Managing projects
Process
– emotional intelligence skill

  • As the world changes ever faster

  • As industries shrinks & others
    grow
  • Process ability is priceless
Communication skills


  • Public speaking

  • Presentation
Communication skills


  • Public speaking

  • Presentation
http://speaking.alltop.com
Q&A
before Conclusion
The economy…
Your mental view…
“Success always comes when
preparation meets opportunity”




                          Henry Hartman

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Success comes when preparartion meets opportunity