1. Caso Flash Memory
Area Finance
Dott.ssa Barbara Monda
Master of Business Administration
5° Master Part Time - Week End
2010 MIP - Riproduzione riservata – Barbara Monda

2. Domande
1. Ipotizzando che l’azienda non investa nella nuova linea di prodotti, preparate i conti
economici e gli stati patrimoniali prospettici per gli anni 2010, 2011 e 2012.
Basandovi su queste previsioni, stimate il fabbisogno finanziario di Flash
2. Qual è il costo medio ponderato del capitale di Flash?
3. Cosa consigliereste a proposito dell’investimento nella nuova linea di prodotti?
L’azienda dovrebbe accettare o rifiutare questa opportunità di investimento?
4. Che impatto avrebbero le vostre raccomandazioni del punto precedente sulle
previsioni dei conti economici e stati patrimoniali e sul fabbisogno finanziario? Che
differenze ci sarebbero in queste previsioni se l’azienda non si finanziasse solo con le
notes payable ma decidesse di emettere nuove azioni?
5. Se foste il CFO Hathaway Browne, quale alternativa di finanziamento suggerireste al
CdA per coprire il fabbisogno finanziario delle domande 1 e 4? Quali sono i costi e i
benefici di ciascuna alternativa?
Master of Business Administration
5° Master Part Time - Week End
2010 MIP - Riproduzione riservata – Barbara Monda 2

3. Ipotesi
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4. 1. Conti economici prospettici ($000)
Actual Forecast
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Sales $77,131 $80,953 $89,250 $120,000 $144,000 $144,000
COGS $62,519 $68,382 $72,424 $97,322 $116,784 $116,784
Gross margin $14,612 $12,571 $16,826 $22,678 $27,216 $27,216
R&D $3,726 $4,133 $4,416 $6,000 $7,200 $7,200
SG&A $6,594 $7,536 $7,458 $10,032 $12,038 $12,038
Operating income $4,292 $902 $4,952 $6,646 $7,978 $7,978
Interest expense $480 $652 $735 $937 $1,323 $1,565
Other expenses -$39 -$27 -$35 $50 $50 $50
EBT $3,773 $223 $4,182 $5,659 $6,604 $6,363
Income taxes $1,509 $89 $1,673 $2,264 $2,642 $2,545
Net income $2,264 $134 $2,509 $3,395 $3,963 $3,818
Master of Business Administration
5° Master Part Time - Week End
2010 MIP - Riproduzione riservata – Barbara Monda 4

5. 1. Stati patrimoniali prospettici ($000)
Actual Forecast
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Cash $2,536 $2,218 $2,934 $3,960 $4,752 $4,752
Accounts receivable $10,988 $12,864 $14,671 $19,726 $23,671 $23,671
Inventories $9,592 $11,072 $11,509 $13,865 $16,638 $16,638
Prepaid expenses $309 $324 $357 $480 $576 $576
Total current assets $23,425 $26,478 $29,471 $38,031 $45,637 $45,637
Property, plant & equipment at cost $5,306 $6,116 $7,282 $8,182 $9,082 $9,982
Less: Accumulated depreciation $792 $1,174 $1,633 $2,179 $2,793 $3,474
Net property, plant & equipment $4,514 $4,942 $5,649 $6,003 $6,290 $6,508
Total assets $27,939 $31,420 $35,120 $44,034 $51,926 $52,145
Accounts payable $3,084 $4,268 $3,929 $4,799 $5,759 $5,759
Notes payable $6,620 $8,873 $10,132 $14,307 $16,915 $13,326
Accrued expenses $563 $591 $652 $876 $1,051 $1,051
Income taxes payable $151 $9 $167 $226 $264 $255
Other current liabilities $478 $502 $554 $744 $893 $893
Total current liabilities $10,896 $14,243 $15,434 $20,953 $24,883 $21,284
Master of Business Administration
5° Master Part Time - Week End
2010 MIP - Riproduzione riservata – Barbara Monda 5

6. 2. Costo del capitale (WACC)
Calcolo di β con il metodo bottom-up, usando i dati delle tre società comparabili Micron Technology,
SanDisk Corporation e STEC
Flash Micron SanDisk STEC MEDIA 10-year T-bonds rate 3.70%
Memory Technology Corp. ERP 6%
β 1.25 1.25 1.36 1.00 1.20 D/(D+E) 18%
share price - 9.4 39.8 13.9 E/(D+E) 82%
nro shares 1,492.0 847.6 229.3 50.3 ke 11.2%
E @mkt_va l ue 7925.1 9135.3 699.2 kd** 7.25%
D/E @mkt_value* 22% 35% 11% 0% 15% WACC 10.0%
BV per share 13.2 6.6 18.1 5.5
BV 19,694 5,603 4,157 276 ** Con l 'i nci denza del debi to a l 18%,
Fl a s h ri entra nel l i mi te del 70% dei
D+E @BV 29,840 8,362 5,132 276
credi ti commerci a l i
D 10,146 2,760 975 -
Capitalization @BV
Debt 34% 33% 19% 0%
Equity 66% 67% 81% 100%
t 40% 40% 40% 40% 40%
βu 1.1 1.10
*Flash Memory: D/(D+E)=18% è il valore target del management
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7. 3. Investimento – calcolo NPV e IRR (1/2)
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8. 3. Investimento – calcolo NPV e IRR (2/2)
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9. 4. Modifiche nelle previsioni
Incremental Financial Statement Account ($000s)
Forecast
2010 2011 2012
Sales $21,600 $28,000
COGS $17,064 $22,120
R&D $0 $0
SG&A (includes launch) $2,106 $2,341
Increase in operating income $2,430 $3,539
Cash (3.3% of sales) $713 $924
Accounts receivable (60 DSO) $3,551 $4,603
Inventories (52 days of COGS) $2,431 $3,151
Prepaid expenses (0.4% of sales) $86 $112
Net property, plant & equipment $2,200 $1,760 $1,320
Accounts payable (60 days of purchases) $842 $1,091
Accrued expenses (0.73% of sales) $158 $204
Other current liabilities (0.62% of sales) $134 $174
Master of Business Administration
5° Master Part Time - Week End
2010 MIP - Riproduzione riservata – Barbara Monda 9

10. 4. Caso investimento, no emissione azioni C/E
Conti economici previsionali nell’ipotesi di accettazione dell’investimento e senza l’emissione di nuove
azioni (con i=9.25%)
Actual Forecast
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Sales $77,131 $80,953 $89,250 $120,000 $165,600 $172,000
COGS $62,519 $68,382 $72,424 $97,322 $133,848 $138,904
Gross margin $14,612 $12,571 $16,826 $22,678 $31,752 $33,096
R&D $3,726 $4,133 $4,416 $6,000 $7,200 $7,200
SG&A $6,594 $7,536 $7,458 $10,032 $14,144 $14,379
Operating income $4,292 $902 $4,952 $6,646 $10,408 $11,517
Interest expense $480 $652 $735 $937 $1,527 $2,118
Other expenses -$39 -$27 -$35 $50 $50 $50
Income before income taxes $3,773 $223 $4,182 $5,659 $8,831 $9,349
Income taxes $1,509 $89 $1,673 $2,264 $3,532 $3,740
Net income $2,264 $134 $2,509 $3,395 $5,299 $5,609
Master of Business Administration
5° Master Part Time - Week End
2010 MIP - Riproduzione riservata – Barbara Monda 10

11. 4. Caso investimento, no emissione azioni S/P
Stati patrimoniali previsionali nell’ipotesi di accettazione dell’investimento e senza l’emissione di nuove
azioni
Actual Forecast
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Cash $2,536 $2,218 $2,934 $3,960 $5,465 $5,676
Accounts receivable $10,988 $12,864 $14,671 $19,726 $27,222 $28,274
Inventories $9,592 $11,072 $11,509 $13,865 $19,069 $19,789
Prepaid expenses $309 $324 $357 $480 $662 $688
Total current assets $23,425 $26,478 $29,471 $38,031 $52,418 $54,427
Property, plant & equipment a $5,306 $6,116 $7,282 $19,726 $23,671 $23,671
Less: Accumulated depreciati $792 $1,174 $1,633 $13,865 $16,638 $16,638
Net property, plant & equipme $4,514 $4,942 $5,649 $8,203 $8,050 $7,828
Total assets $27,939 $31,420 $35,120 $46,234 $60,467 $62,255
Accounts payable $3,084 $4,268 $3,929 $4,799 $6,601 $6,850
Notes payable $6,620 $8,873 $10,132 $16,507 $22,898 $18,720
Accrued expenses $563 $591 $652 $876 $1,209 $1,256
Income taxes payable $151 $9 $167 $226 $353 $374
Other current liabilities $478 $502 $554 $744 $1,027 $1,066
Total current liabilities $10,896 $14,243 $15,434 $23,153 $32,087 $28,266
Master of Business Administration
5° Master Part Time - Week End
2010 MIP - Riproduzione riservata – Barbara Monda 11

12. 4. Caso investimento con emissione azioni C/E
Conti economici previsionali nell’ipotesi di accettazione dell’investimento e di emissione di nuove azioni
Master of Business Administration
5° Master Part Time - Week End
2010 MIP - Riproduzione riservata – Barbara Monda 12

13. 4. Caso investimento con emissione azioni S/P
Stati patrimoniali previsionali nell’ipotesi di accettazione dell’investimento e di emissione di nuove azioni
Master of Business Administration
5° Master Part Time - Week End
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14. 5. Conclusioni
No Investment in New Product Line
Sell No New Stock
Borrow at 9.25%
2010 2011 2012
Earnings per share $2.28 $2.66 $2.56
Interest coverage ratio (times) 7.1 6.0 5.1
Return on equity 14.7% 14.7% 12.4%
Notes payable / accounts receivable 72.5% 71.5% 56.3%
Notes payable / shareholders' equity 62.0% 62.5% 43.2%
Total liabilities / shareholders' equity 90.8% 92.0% 69.0%
Notes payable (000s) $14,306 $16,914 $13,325
Invest in the New Product Line Invest in the New Product Line
Sell No New Stock Sell 300,000 Shares of Common Stoc
Borrow at 9.25% Borrow at 7.25%
2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012
Earnings per share $2.28 $3.55 $3.76 $1.96 $3.24 $3.47
Interest coverage ratio (times) 7.1 6.8 5.4 9.1 15.1 10.4
Return on equity 14.7% 18.7% 16.5% 11.7% 16.2% 14.8%
Notes payable / accounts receivable 83.7% 84.1% 66.2% 48.0% 56.3% 37.3%
Notes payable / shareholders' equity 71.5% 80.7% 55.1% 31.5% 42.7% 25.0%
Total liabilities / shareholders' equity 100.3% 113.1% 83.2% 53.6% 68.4% 47.8%
Notes payable (000s) $16,506 $22,897 $18,719 $9,476 $15,338 $10,550
Master of Business Administration
5° Master Part Time - Week End
2010 MIP - Riproduzione riservata – Barbara Monda 14