Stocky is a prediction market app on Facebook that allows users to buy and trade virtual stocks tied to real-world events like the outcome of Eurovision. The prices of these stocks are meant to correlate with the probabilities of different outcomes, drawing on the "wisdom of crowds" concept. Prediction markets have been shown to be highly accurate due to market forces that incentivize the truthful revelation of beliefs. Stocky aims to launch on Facebook in beta to take advantage of the large social network to gather enough trading volume for accurate predictions, with plans to expand the types of prediction markets and monetize the platform over time.

1. STOCKY – play and predict the future
Domas Monkus
domas@nous.lt
Nous
www.nous.lt

2. Who are the winners of Eurovision?
● Polls
● Expert opinions
● Statistical models
● „You mean who I'd like to win?“
● Insincere disclosure
● Incomplete information

3. Prediction markets
● Stocks are tied to events
● Stock payouts depend on the outcomes
● Stock prices correlate with the probabilities

4. Prediction markets
The benefit? Accuracy!
Iowa Electronic Markets: 2008 US President election
Democrats
Republicans

5. Prediction markets
Why?
● „Wisdom of the crowds“ (J.Surowiecki)
● Incentives for information discovery and
truthful revelation of beliefs
● Efficient market hypothesis

6. Stocky
Demokratai
Respublikonai

7. Why facebook?
A channel for:
● User acquisition
● User activation
● User retention
● User referrals
High trading volumes and thus a large
user base is necessary for forecasting
accuracy.

8. What's next?
● More markets
● Geo and social market recommendations
● Paid markets
● Growth

9. Public beta!
http://apps.facebook.com/stocky_beta/

10. Thank you