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Virginia, Sea Level Rise, and Marketing
Lessons Learned
Skip Stiles
State Environmental Leaders Conference
November 20, 2015
VIRGINIA’S SEA LEVEL RISE REALITY
VA Climate
Commission
2008
Boon/Ezer
2012
Planning recommendationPlanning recommendation
Impact on Wetlands
What We Want
What Everyone Else Wants
What Everyone Else Wants
What We Need to Change
An All to Familiar Situation
WHAT WE WERE “SELLING”
Save Virginia’s Wetlands From Climate Change
What Do People Want to Talk About?
We Listened to THEM
What They Want to Talk About
Change the Conversation
Make it PersonalWhat Will Sea Level Rise Do in My Children’s/Grandchildren’s
Life?
Make it Local, Make it RealWhat Is Sea Level Rise Already Doing to my Community/To
Me?
* How Many Times Have I Had to Change My Commute in the
Last Year?
* Is it Just My Imagination or Are the Storms Getting Worse?
“Life Cycle Costing” or “Total Ownership Cost”What Will Sea Level Rise Cost Me Over my Lifetime/Over my
Business Horizon/During the time I Own My House?
Use Local Examples of Change
Fire Ant infestations
have closed parks in
SE Virginia, starting in
2011.
Before then, Fire Ants
could not survive the
winters this far north.
Use Local Examples of Change
4’ Erosion/yr
Storm Surges in Hampton Roads
Sewells Point Tide Gauge Record
DATE STORM TYPE/NAME ABOVE MHHW
August 23, 1933 Hurricane 5.26 feet
September 18,2003 Hurricane Isabel 5.13 feet
November 12, 2009 Veterans Day Nor’easter 4.99 feet
August 28, 2011 Hurricane Irene 4.76 feet
March 7, 1962 Ash Wednesday Storm 4.46 feet
October 29, 2012 Hurricane Sandy 4.09 feet
September 18, 1936 Hurricane 3.96 feet
November 22, 2006 Thanksgiving Nor’easter 3.87 feet
February 5, 1998 Twin Nor’easter (#2) 3.82 feet
October 6, 2006 Columbus Day Nor’easter 3.76 feet
October 4. 2015 Nor’easter 3.72 feet
April 27, 1978 Nor’easter 3.65 feet
April 11, 1956 Nor’easter 3.56 feet
September 16, 1933 Hurricane 3.36 feet
January 28, 1998 Twin Nor’easter (#1) 3.28 feet
September 16, 1999 Hurricane Floyd 3.21 feet
Storm Surges in Hampton Roads
Sewells Point Tide Gauge Record
DATE STORM TYPE/NAME ABOVE MHHW
August 23, 1933 Hurricane 5.26 feet
September 18,2003 Hurricane Isabel 5.13 feet
November 12, 2009 Veterans Day Nor’easter 4.99 feet
August 28, 2011 Hurricane Irene 4.76 feet
March 7, 1962 Ash Wednesday Storm 4.46 feet
October 29, 2012 Hurricane Sandy 4.09 feet
September 18, 1936 Hurricane 3.96 feet
November 22, 2006 Thanksgiving Nor’easter 3.87 feet
February 5, 1998 Twin Nor’easter (#2) 3.82 feet
October 6, 2006 Columbus Day Nor’easter 3.76 feet
October 4. 2015 Nor’easter 3.72 feet
April 27, 1978 Nor’easter 3.65 feet
April 11, 1956 Nor’easter 3.56 feet
September 16, 1933 Hurricane 3.36 feet
January 28, 1998 Twin Nor’easter (#1) 3.28 feet
September 16, 1999 Hurricane Floyd 3.21 feet
- 1.45 feet
in 1915
Future Storm Surges in Hampton Roads
Sewells Point Tide Gauge Record
DATE STORM TYPE/NAME ABOVE MHHW
August 23, 1933 Hurricane 5.26 feet
September 18,2003 Hurricane Isabel 5.13 feet
November 12, 2009 Veterans Day Nor’easter 4.99 feet
August 28, 2011 Hurricane Irene 4.76 feet
March 7, 1962 Ash Wednesday Storm 4.46 feet
October 29, 2012 Hurricane Sandy 4.09 feet
September 18, 1936 Hurricane 3.96 feet
November 22, 2006 Thanksgiving Nor’easter 3.87 feet
February 5, 1998 Twin Nor’easter (#2) 3.82 feet
October 6, 2006 Columbus Day Nor’easter 3.76 feet
October 4. 2015 Nor’easter 3.72 feet
April 27, 1978 Nor’easter 3.65 feet
April 11, 1956 Nor’easter 3.56 feet
September 16, 1933 Hurricane 3.36 feet
January 28, 1998 Twin Nor’easter (#1) 3.28 feet
September 16, 1999 Hurricane Floyd 3.21 feet
+1.5 feet
by 2060
For Virginia Source of Change Not An Issue
Just Looking At Wetlands Impacts Limits
Options
Broader Focus = More Options & More
Partners
New Message
Protect Your Community from Flooding Impacts and
Expenses
We Still Faced The Challenge of Asymmetry
IN FIFTY YEARS,
WE WILL HAVE AVOIDED COSTS
FROM SEA LEVEL RISE
FOREGO FINANCIAL GAIN/
PROPERTY TAX
ON SHORELINE PROPERTY
DEVELOPMENT
TODAY Policy/M
arketing
Challenge
Policy/M
arketing
Challenge
Time to Impact
ScaleofImpact
Week Month Year Decade Century
Region
Nation
State/Province
Community
Individual
Homeowners Insurance Changes
Allstate's 'Good Hands' Wave 'Bye Bye'
CHICAGO, Dec. 21, 2006
(AP) Wary of the rising risk of hurricanes, Allstate Corp. has added coastal regions of North and South
Carolina, Alabama, Maryland and Virginia to the growing list of areas nationwide where it is cutting back
homeowners insurance coverage.
Sea Change In Insurers' Coastal Coverage
Many Firms Opt to End Or Limit New Policies
By Sandra Fleishman
Special to The Washington Post
Saturday, December 30, 2006; F01
Major insurance companies are throwing cold water on America's new passion
for living near the ocean and by the bay.
Recently, the biggest companies in the homeowners insurance business
announced that they will stop writing new policies in some coastal areas of the
mid-Atlantic and will otherwise limit coverage there. They have already reduced
their coverage in states more prone to hurricanes.
From the Baltimore Sun
Insurers shrink from coasts
Legislators here, elsewhere aim to help
homeowners as industry fears growing risk
By Laura Smitherman
Sun reporter
February 18, 2007
As insurance companies retreat from their coverage
of coastal areas along the Eastern Seaboard,
legislators in Annapolis and other state capitals are
stepping in to protect homeowners faced with fewer
and fewer options.
Concerns brought up about
possible
impending insurance crisis
by Sherry Hamilton
Speaking at the May 22
meeting of the Mathews
Board of Supervisors,
Gwynn’s Island resident
Judy Rowe warned of an
impending insurance crisis
in the county.
An Opening for Adaptation?
• Post-Katrina Lawsuits
• Recession
• Increased Storm Cycle
in Mid-Atlantic
• More Sophisticated
Underwriting,
Geocoding, Personal
Information
Flood Insurance Changes Pricing Risk Into
Coastal Communities
NFIP Reforms will affect tidal localities:
•Phase out subsidies
•Phase out grandfathering
•Return to “actuarial soundness”
•Study inclusion of Sea Level Rise in
future rate maps
NFIP: Flood Insurance Reforms
Average Rate Increase = 20%
Maximum Rate Increase = 37%
The NFIP Community Rating System
Saving Money and Shorelines
• Voluntary NFIP program offers discounts on
flood insurance to reward good floodplain
management within a community
• Various activities to
improve floodplain
management/earn credit
• Open space, shoreline restoration, wetlands
creation, etc. gain points/reduce flood
insurance premiums!
FLOOD DAMAGE MITIGATION – NEED AND
OPPORTUNITY
FLOOD DAMAGE MITIGATION – NEED AND
OPPORTUNITY
9,200 Jobs!
Private Sector is Moving on the Issue
TAKE EXTRA FLOOD PROTECTION
MEASURES AND CREATE MORE
OPEN SPACE
IN FLOOD PLAINS TODAY
Closing The Time/Cost Gap
GET LOWER FLOOD INSURANCE
RATES AND KEEP LOWER
MUNICIPAL BOND COSTS TODAY
Time to Impact
ScaleofImpact
Week Month Year Decade Century
Region
Nation
State/Province
Community
Individual
RESILIENCY DESIGN – NEED AND OPPORTUNITY
$200 + million sought by
Hampton Roads - HUD National
Disaster Resiliency Competition
– Oct, 2015 Submission
Who else is interested in paying for
information on flooding?
WHAT WE CAN “SELL” AGAIN
Save Virginia’s Wetlands From Climate Change
Questions?
Skip Stiles
skip.stiles@wetlandswatch.org

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Stiles climate campaign

  • 1. Virginia, Sea Level Rise, and Marketing Lessons Learned Skip Stiles State Environmental Leaders Conference November 20, 2015
  • 2. VIRGINIA’S SEA LEVEL RISE REALITY VA Climate Commission 2008 Boon/Ezer 2012 Planning recommendationPlanning recommendation
  • 7. What We Need to Change
  • 8. An All to Familiar Situation
  • 9. WHAT WE WERE “SELLING” Save Virginia’s Wetlands From Climate Change
  • 10. What Do People Want to Talk About?
  • 12. What They Want to Talk About
  • 13. Change the Conversation Make it PersonalWhat Will Sea Level Rise Do in My Children’s/Grandchildren’s Life? Make it Local, Make it RealWhat Is Sea Level Rise Already Doing to my Community/To Me? * How Many Times Have I Had to Change My Commute in the Last Year? * Is it Just My Imagination or Are the Storms Getting Worse? “Life Cycle Costing” or “Total Ownership Cost”What Will Sea Level Rise Cost Me Over my Lifetime/Over my Business Horizon/During the time I Own My House?
  • 14. Use Local Examples of Change Fire Ant infestations have closed parks in SE Virginia, starting in 2011. Before then, Fire Ants could not survive the winters this far north.
  • 15. Use Local Examples of Change 4’ Erosion/yr
  • 16. Storm Surges in Hampton Roads Sewells Point Tide Gauge Record DATE STORM TYPE/NAME ABOVE MHHW August 23, 1933 Hurricane 5.26 feet September 18,2003 Hurricane Isabel 5.13 feet November 12, 2009 Veterans Day Nor’easter 4.99 feet August 28, 2011 Hurricane Irene 4.76 feet March 7, 1962 Ash Wednesday Storm 4.46 feet October 29, 2012 Hurricane Sandy 4.09 feet September 18, 1936 Hurricane 3.96 feet November 22, 2006 Thanksgiving Nor’easter 3.87 feet February 5, 1998 Twin Nor’easter (#2) 3.82 feet October 6, 2006 Columbus Day Nor’easter 3.76 feet October 4. 2015 Nor’easter 3.72 feet April 27, 1978 Nor’easter 3.65 feet April 11, 1956 Nor’easter 3.56 feet September 16, 1933 Hurricane 3.36 feet January 28, 1998 Twin Nor’easter (#1) 3.28 feet September 16, 1999 Hurricane Floyd 3.21 feet
  • 17. Storm Surges in Hampton Roads Sewells Point Tide Gauge Record DATE STORM TYPE/NAME ABOVE MHHW August 23, 1933 Hurricane 5.26 feet September 18,2003 Hurricane Isabel 5.13 feet November 12, 2009 Veterans Day Nor’easter 4.99 feet August 28, 2011 Hurricane Irene 4.76 feet March 7, 1962 Ash Wednesday Storm 4.46 feet October 29, 2012 Hurricane Sandy 4.09 feet September 18, 1936 Hurricane 3.96 feet November 22, 2006 Thanksgiving Nor’easter 3.87 feet February 5, 1998 Twin Nor’easter (#2) 3.82 feet October 6, 2006 Columbus Day Nor’easter 3.76 feet October 4. 2015 Nor’easter 3.72 feet April 27, 1978 Nor’easter 3.65 feet April 11, 1956 Nor’easter 3.56 feet September 16, 1933 Hurricane 3.36 feet January 28, 1998 Twin Nor’easter (#1) 3.28 feet September 16, 1999 Hurricane Floyd 3.21 feet - 1.45 feet in 1915
  • 18. Future Storm Surges in Hampton Roads Sewells Point Tide Gauge Record DATE STORM TYPE/NAME ABOVE MHHW August 23, 1933 Hurricane 5.26 feet September 18,2003 Hurricane Isabel 5.13 feet November 12, 2009 Veterans Day Nor’easter 4.99 feet August 28, 2011 Hurricane Irene 4.76 feet March 7, 1962 Ash Wednesday Storm 4.46 feet October 29, 2012 Hurricane Sandy 4.09 feet September 18, 1936 Hurricane 3.96 feet November 22, 2006 Thanksgiving Nor’easter 3.87 feet February 5, 1998 Twin Nor’easter (#2) 3.82 feet October 6, 2006 Columbus Day Nor’easter 3.76 feet October 4. 2015 Nor’easter 3.72 feet April 27, 1978 Nor’easter 3.65 feet April 11, 1956 Nor’easter 3.56 feet September 16, 1933 Hurricane 3.36 feet January 28, 1998 Twin Nor’easter (#1) 3.28 feet September 16, 1999 Hurricane Floyd 3.21 feet +1.5 feet by 2060
  • 19. For Virginia Source of Change Not An Issue
  • 20. Just Looking At Wetlands Impacts Limits Options
  • 21. Broader Focus = More Options & More Partners
  • 22. New Message Protect Your Community from Flooding Impacts and Expenses
  • 23. We Still Faced The Challenge of Asymmetry IN FIFTY YEARS, WE WILL HAVE AVOIDED COSTS FROM SEA LEVEL RISE FOREGO FINANCIAL GAIN/ PROPERTY TAX ON SHORELINE PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT TODAY Policy/M arketing Challenge Policy/M arketing Challenge Time to Impact ScaleofImpact Week Month Year Decade Century Region Nation State/Province Community Individual
  • 24. Homeowners Insurance Changes Allstate's 'Good Hands' Wave 'Bye Bye' CHICAGO, Dec. 21, 2006 (AP) Wary of the rising risk of hurricanes, Allstate Corp. has added coastal regions of North and South Carolina, Alabama, Maryland and Virginia to the growing list of areas nationwide where it is cutting back homeowners insurance coverage. Sea Change In Insurers' Coastal Coverage Many Firms Opt to End Or Limit New Policies By Sandra Fleishman Special to The Washington Post Saturday, December 30, 2006; F01 Major insurance companies are throwing cold water on America's new passion for living near the ocean and by the bay. Recently, the biggest companies in the homeowners insurance business announced that they will stop writing new policies in some coastal areas of the mid-Atlantic and will otherwise limit coverage there. They have already reduced their coverage in states more prone to hurricanes. From the Baltimore Sun Insurers shrink from coasts Legislators here, elsewhere aim to help homeowners as industry fears growing risk By Laura Smitherman Sun reporter February 18, 2007 As insurance companies retreat from their coverage of coastal areas along the Eastern Seaboard, legislators in Annapolis and other state capitals are stepping in to protect homeowners faced with fewer and fewer options. Concerns brought up about possible impending insurance crisis by Sherry Hamilton Speaking at the May 22 meeting of the Mathews Board of Supervisors, Gwynn’s Island resident Judy Rowe warned of an impending insurance crisis in the county.
  • 25. An Opening for Adaptation? • Post-Katrina Lawsuits • Recession • Increased Storm Cycle in Mid-Atlantic • More Sophisticated Underwriting, Geocoding, Personal Information
  • 26. Flood Insurance Changes Pricing Risk Into Coastal Communities NFIP Reforms will affect tidal localities: •Phase out subsidies •Phase out grandfathering •Return to “actuarial soundness” •Study inclusion of Sea Level Rise in future rate maps
  • 27. NFIP: Flood Insurance Reforms Average Rate Increase = 20% Maximum Rate Increase = 37%
  • 28. The NFIP Community Rating System Saving Money and Shorelines • Voluntary NFIP program offers discounts on flood insurance to reward good floodplain management within a community • Various activities to improve floodplain management/earn credit • Open space, shoreline restoration, wetlands creation, etc. gain points/reduce flood insurance premiums!
  • 29. FLOOD DAMAGE MITIGATION – NEED AND OPPORTUNITY
  • 30. FLOOD DAMAGE MITIGATION – NEED AND OPPORTUNITY 9,200 Jobs!
  • 31. Private Sector is Moving on the Issue
  • 32. TAKE EXTRA FLOOD PROTECTION MEASURES AND CREATE MORE OPEN SPACE IN FLOOD PLAINS TODAY Closing The Time/Cost Gap GET LOWER FLOOD INSURANCE RATES AND KEEP LOWER MUNICIPAL BOND COSTS TODAY Time to Impact ScaleofImpact Week Month Year Decade Century Region Nation State/Province Community Individual
  • 33. RESILIENCY DESIGN – NEED AND OPPORTUNITY $200 + million sought by Hampton Roads - HUD National Disaster Resiliency Competition – Oct, 2015 Submission
  • 34. Who else is interested in paying for information on flooding?
  • 35. WHAT WE CAN “SELL” AGAIN Save Virginia’s Wetlands From Climate Change

Editor's Notes

  1. Shannon: WHAT DOES THIS MEAN. To Keep it simple, the average rate increase….so this year when policyholders get their bill in the mail, their rates will be higher on average by 20% than they were last year. They may be more or they may be less, BUT the maximum PREMIUM increase is capped at 18% or 25% depending on the type of policy. Only premiums, not including additional fees. Increases are property specific and there are many factors that go into determining increases. This is a generalization.
  2. 500 credit points NFIP participation for 1 year Full compliance with minimum NFIP regulations Maintain elevation certificates (new construction) Meet repetitive loss criteria: info gathering, outreach, mitigation plan, mapping (part of hazmit plan) Flood insurance for locality-owned property in SFHA Show LiMWA line on new FIRMs
  3. This series of pictures illustrates another point of interest. In the first frame, the “trouble” designation is given with a descriptor for tidal flooding. In the second frame, during one of the peregian high tides, the outline of the flooding is apparent. In the final frame, the extent of the flooding is illustrated – the glare off the car shows this is a sunny day and the flooding is, indeed, wholly due to tidal flooding. The Apartment building knows it floods and has installed signs that look like adaptation until you break down what is actually going on. Who declares “flooding” is happening? Does the city with its inadequate warning app? Does the apartment management? And who contacts the folks who have left their cars in the lot while they are overseas on temporary work in Bharain (remember Norfolk is a military town)? Who might be interested in a phone app that pushes a specific warning message to auto owners??? The insurers, of course. And they would be willing to support this system if it saves them claims.