1. Douban.com has experienced rapid growth since its launch in 2005, with its active users increasing from 5,000 to over 2.8 million by November 2008. 2. The diffusion of innovations theory and innovation adoption curve help explain Douban.com's popularity growth, with most users adopting between 2007 to early 2008 when it reached the "critical mass" point. 3. A survey of 689 Douban.com users found that over half were between 20-25 years old and joined between 2007-2008, indicating they were in the late majority adoption category.

1. ——
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15. .
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17. 7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
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2-2 2005.3.2 —2008.11.13
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18 Everett M. Rogers, Diffusion of Innovations, 3rd ed.(New york: Free Press,1963), p.247
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18. 50%
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10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
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19. 35
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20. 160
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21. S
3.
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60
40
20
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22. 45000
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2-9 2005.3.2 —2008.11.13
“ ” S
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2007 3 2 2007 6 2
10% 20%
1. 2007 6 2 / 10% = 584951 / 10% = 5849510
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20%
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24. .
1.
2009 3 17 6 2826054
2.
3 16
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2009 2 11 2009 2 11
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2009 3 16 2009 3 17
689 spss
.
questionnaire
1. 2.
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24

25. 1. 2.
3.
.
689 2
272 90% 5%
4-1
300 43.54%
389 56.46%
689 100%
4-1 389 56.46%
43.54%
4-2
25

26. 0-15 6 0.87%
15-20 94 13.64%
20-25 423 61.39%
25-30 139 20.17%
30 27 3.92%
689 100%
4-2 20-25
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CNNIC2009 1
90
75
60
45
30
15
0
0-20 20-30 30
4-1
4-3
26

27. 372 54.07%
249 36.19%
/ 16 2.33%
26 3.78%
25 3.63%
689 100%
54.07% 36.19% 90%
.
Ho
Ha
1.
2.
3.
4-4
129 65 36 50 20
173 106 44 47 19
302 171 80 97 39
27

28. 4-4 5.76 4 p>0.05
4-5
116 72 46 48 18
151 118 53 37 30
267 190 99 85 48
4-5 9.3 4 p>0.05
Ho
Ho
Ha
1.
2.
3. 2007 3 6
4-6
113 72 31 39 22
2007.3
28

29. 161 84 32 50 14
2007.6
302 171 80 97 39
4-6 5.92 4 p>0.05
4-7
105 76 34 33 27
2007.3
137 99 55 46 17
2007.6
267 190 99 85 48
4-5 6.81 4 p>0.05
Ho
29

30. 2007.3 2007.6
300
225
150
75
0
4-2
4-2 4-6
43.8
30

31. 2007.3 2007.6
300
225
150
75
0
4-3
4-3 4-7
38.8
43.8%
31

32. .
1.
2.
43.8%
24.8
38.7% 27.6%
.
“
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32

33. seo
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19
SNS
19
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34. A:
“ ”
05
78
13488674689
dreamcog@gmail.com
.
2-3
______
.
34

35. ______
.
______
.
id:dreamcog 2006-8-23
2007 3
2007 3 2007 6
2007 6
.
.
0-15
15-20
20-25
25-30
30
35

36. .
___
.
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