Xinjiang Department of Water Resources, P.R. ChinaSwiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC)  Sino-Swiss Cooperati...
ProblemFlooding along Yarkant RiverThreatening 1 Mio. peopleOccuring every 2-3 years  Page 2   GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012
ObjectivesCauses of flood at Yarkant River> Rainfall in Yarkant Watershed> Snowmelt in upper Yarkant Catchment  area (Kara...
Kyagar GlacierPage 4   Zollikofen, March 19th, 2012
Kyagar Glacier                                             2003                                                     2003  ...
Kyagar Glacial Lake         ±         Landsat-TM, MFB-GeoConsulting GmbH                                         May 18th,...
Kyagar Glacial Lake         ±         Landsat-TM, MFB-GeoConsulting GmbH                                     June 22nd, 20...
Kyagar Glacial Lake         Length: 5.5 km         Width: 0.5 km         ±         Landsat-TM, MFB-GeoConsulting GmbH     ...
Kyagar Glacial Lake    Lake shortly before spontaneous outburst (August 13th, 2002)    V = 95 Mio m3         ±         Lan...
Problem        August 13th, 2002Peak discharge approx. 4‘500 m3/sPage 10   GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012
Kyagar Glacial Lake          Lake disappeared          ±          Aster, MFB-GeoConsulting GmbH                           ...
ObjectivesObjectives of the Yarkant River Project>Establishment of an Early Warning System (EWS) for GLOFs (realized in 20...
Kyagar Glacial Lake Archive of satellite data (1972 – 2011): 56 images  13.06.1976                    14.07.1977   18.07.1...
Kyagar Glacial LakePage 14   GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012
Kyagar GlacierShorelines                                                    1986                               WorldView-2...
Early Warning SystemField mission September 2011Page 16   FOEN, May 11th, 2012
Early Warning SystemConceptfully operationalPage 17   Ort und Datum des Anlasses
Early Warning System2 radar sensors                           Control unit:                           data logger, 2      ...
Early Warning System   CamerasCam 1: upstream view (May                    Cam 2: downstream view (May 10th,10th, 2012, 12...
Kyagar Glacier 2002 - 2011Page 20   Zollikofen, March 19th, 2012
Climate ChangeModelled retreat of the Kyagar Glacier tonguePage 21   Ort und Datum des Anlasses
Kyagar Glacial LakeDanger of GLOFs in the past and at presentHistoric glacial lake volumes: > 200 Mio m3Potential glacial ...
Climate ChangeRelation between Volume and peak discharge           22Calibrated relation between lake volume and peak disc...
Flood Zones Modelling                                         >Scenario 100 SwissRe                                       ...
Outlook (1)Further milestones in step 2 and 3>Continue the established EWS with satellite (SAR) remote sensing and the ter...
Outlook (2)Further milestones in step 2 and 3>Observe and verify the retreat of Kyagar Glacier with additional photogramme...
Page 27   Hangzhou, April 11th, 2012
Thank youPage 28   FOEN, May 11th, 2012
Page 29   Ort und Datum des Anlasses
Page 30   Ort und Datum des Anlasses
OrganisationPage 31   GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012
Executed InvestigationsField mission May 2011Page 32   GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012
Executed InvestigationsSummary of executed investigations/worksteps>Compilation of base maps and establishment of a detail...
Kyagar Glacial Lake                                                                            discharge                  ...
Kyagar Glacial LakeFlood volumes and calculated lake volumesPage 35   Zollikofen, March 19th, 2012
Early Warning System                                             Date   Occurr    Volume    Hazard     In – and        Rem...
Early Warning SystemGauge station at Keleqin River / Yarkant River confluence                                             ...
Climate Change                                                         >Changes among ±                                   ...
Climate Change ±                                                        >Feature tracking:                                ...
Climate Change                                                   >base of a ±                                             ...
Early Warning System Water level                                   Daily System Checkdistance to water level              ...
Early Warning SystemSatellite: Procedure of Early Warning and MonitoringPage 42   Zollikofen, March 19th, 2012
Outlook (2)Further milestones in step 2 and 3>Supply the hydrographic station at Langan with additional instruments for au...
Impact on lake formation                              Maximum lake       Potential Lake   Potential Peak                  ...
Modelled annual runoffFigure 6.8: Modelled annual runoff volume fromthe catchment above Kyagar Lake (the sourcearea of Kel...
Results shown in Google Earth>without flooding      >with flooded areas
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Early warning of glacial lake outburst floods and climate change monitoring in the Karakoram mountains, P.R. China

1,188 views

Published on

Christoph HAEMMIG1, Hansrudolf KEUSEN1, Josef HESS2

1Geotest AG, Switzerland; 2Federal Office for the Environment, Executive Director LAINAT, Switzerland;

Published in: Education, Technology
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
1,188
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
43
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
0
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Early warning of glacial lake outburst floods and climate change monitoring in the Karakoram mountains, P.R. China

  1. 1. Xinjiang Department of Water Resources, P.R. ChinaSwiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) Sino-Swiss Cooperation on Monitoring and Early Warning in the area of Yarkant River, Uygur Autonomous Region, Province Xinjiang, P.R. China Status and OutlookCh. Haemmig, H.R. Keusen, J. Hess GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012
  2. 2. ProblemFlooding along Yarkant RiverThreatening 1 Mio. peopleOccuring every 2-3 years Page 2 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012
  3. 3. ObjectivesCauses of flood at Yarkant River> Rainfall in Yarkant Watershed> Snowmelt in upper Yarkant Catchment area (Karakorum mountains)> Glacier lake outburst floods in Shaksgam Valley (Keleqin River as tributary of Yarkant River)Page 3 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012
  4. 4. Kyagar GlacierPage 4 Zollikofen, March 19th, 2012
  5. 5. Kyagar Glacier 2003 2003 Length Average width of Maximum height Area Terminal altitude Altitude of Highest [km] glacier tongue in of the ice dam in [km2] (valley floor) firn line altitude 2011 [km] 2011 [m] [m a.s.l] [m a.s.l] [m a.s.l] 22 1.5 - 2 65 110 4’700 5’400 7’720Page 5 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012
  6. 6. Kyagar Glacial Lake ± Landsat-TM, MFB-GeoConsulting GmbH May 18th, 2002Page 6 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012
  7. 7. Kyagar Glacial Lake ± Landsat-TM, MFB-GeoConsulting GmbH June 22nd, 2002Page 7 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012
  8. 8. Kyagar Glacial Lake Length: 5.5 km Width: 0.5 km ± Landsat-TM, MFB-GeoConsulting GmbH August 2nd, 2002Page 8 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012
  9. 9. Kyagar Glacial Lake Lake shortly before spontaneous outburst (August 13th, 2002) V = 95 Mio m3 ± Landsat-TM, MFB-GeoConsulting GmbH August 9th, 2002Page 9 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012
  10. 10. Problem August 13th, 2002Peak discharge approx. 4‘500 m3/sPage 10 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012
  11. 11. Kyagar Glacial Lake Lake disappeared ± Aster, MFB-GeoConsulting GmbH October 12th, 2002Page 11 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012
  12. 12. ObjectivesObjectives of the Yarkant River Project>Establishment of an Early Warning System (EWS) for GLOFs (realized in 2011, on-going)>Risk management for the potential flood areas (to be realized in 2012 and on-going)>Climate Change monitoring and analysis (started 2011, on-going)>The ultimate goal is: to protect and save human life and their properties, to reduce loss from floods, to ensure the development of the local economy and to maintain the harmonious society of a border area.Page 12 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012
  13. 13. Kyagar Glacial Lake Archive of satellite data (1972 – 2011): 56 images 13.06.1976 14.07.1977 18.07.1978 09.10.1998 16.09.1980 09.08.2002 15.09.2004 03.07.2006 27.07.2009Page 13 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012
  14. 14. Kyagar Glacial LakePage 14 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012
  15. 15. Kyagar GlacierShorelines 1986 WorldView-2 2011Page 15 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012
  16. 16. Early Warning SystemField mission September 2011Page 16 FOEN, May 11th, 2012
  17. 17. Early Warning SystemConceptfully operationalPage 17 Ort und Datum des Anlasses
  18. 18. Early Warning System2 radar sensors Control unit: data logger, 2 cameras, satellite commuinaction unit, solar panel Page 18
  19. 19. Early Warning System CamerasCam 1: upstream view (May Cam 2: downstream view (May 10th,10th, 2012, 12h00 local time) 2012, 12h00 local time) Page 19 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012
  20. 20. Kyagar Glacier 2002 - 2011Page 20 Zollikofen, March 19th, 2012
  21. 21. Climate ChangeModelled retreat of the Kyagar Glacier tonguePage 21 Ort und Datum des Anlasses
  22. 22. Kyagar Glacial LakeDanger of GLOFs in the past and at presentHistoric glacial lake volumes: > 200 Mio m3Potential glacial lake volume 2011: 22 Mio m3Page 22 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012
  23. 23. Climate ChangeRelation between Volume and peak discharge 22Calibrated relation between lake volume and peak discharge for outburstfloods of Kyagar Lake. Volumes for 2002, 2011 and 2020 are indicated.Page 23 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012
  24. 24. Flood Zones Modelling >Scenario 100 SwissRe >Scenario 2 (1’000 m3/s) Flood Area ± 0 5 10 20 KilometersPage 24 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012
  25. 25. Outlook (1)Further milestones in step 2 and 3>Continue the established EWS with satellite (SAR) remote sensing and the terrestrial observation station.>Verify the modelled potential flood zones in the populated areas and to establish a hazard-indicatioin map as a base for an effective risk management.>Risk management based the hazard-index map and the implementation of suitable mitigation measures shall be established in collaboration with local authorities in step 3 (2013 and on-going).>Installation of an observation station at Kyagar Glacier Lake for local climate monitoring and early warning.Page 25 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012
  26. 26. Outlook (2)Further milestones in step 2 and 3>Observe and verify the retreat of Kyagar Glacier with additional photogrammetric investigations of the entire glacier in order to enhance forecasts of potential GLOFs.>Complete the implementation of the EWS with sever-applications at the local authorities in Xinjiang. The goal is a fully independent operation of the EWS.>After the establishment and verification of the EWS along Keleqin/Yarkant River, the methodology of the EWS can be transferred to another dangerous glacial lake in the region of Xinjiang.Page 26 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012
  27. 27. Page 27 Hangzhou, April 11th, 2012
  28. 28. Thank youPage 28 FOEN, May 11th, 2012
  29. 29. Page 29 Ort und Datum des Anlasses
  30. 30. Page 30 Ort und Datum des Anlasses
  31. 31. OrganisationPage 31 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012
  32. 32. Executed InvestigationsField mission May 2011Page 32 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012
  33. 33. Executed InvestigationsSummary of executed investigations/worksteps>Compilation of base maps and establishment of a detailed Digital Elevation Model of the Kyagar Glacier Lake basin>Continuous observation of Kyagar Glacier Lake by satellite (SAR) remote sensing for Early Warning of GLOFs>Installation of gauge and warning station as a part of the Early Warning System>Analyses of past GLOFs and glacier lake volumes based on satellite data>Modelling of Flood Zones along Yarkant River based on scenarios>Evaluation and forecast of future scenarios for Kyagar GLOFs considering global climate changePage 33 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012
  34. 34. Kyagar Glacial Lake discharge Peak Peak Flowtime Flood Volume of Max. before runoff duration Surface of discharge discharge duration duration between Rising travel time Kyagar Elevation of Depth of Elevation of Date of flood (flood) of Kyagar (Langan (Kaqong of flood of falling Langan and rate Langan - Glacial lake surface Kyagar ice-dam [m event (Kaqong Volume raisaing Glacial station) station) [h] limb [h] Kaqong [m/h] Kaqong Lake [Mio [m a.s..l.] Glacier a.s.l.] station) [Mio m3] limb [h] Lake [m2] [m3/s] [m3/s] station [h] [km/h] m3 ] lake [m] [m3/s]>Long history of historic Max. 29.08.1959 2570 2460 46.00 34 3.5 30.5 9.5 0.35 12.2 234 4852 152 4965920 GLOFs: 27 events 04.09.1961 24.06.1963 6670 1900 6270 1690 150.00 48.00 27.2 32 1.2 2 21.8 30 8.2 8.3 5.84 0.56 14.2 11.3 in 54 years 16.09.1963 1320 40.00 43 4.5 0.22 12.7 06.09.1964 2380 2450 67.00 34 2.5 21.5 9.9 0.54 11.7 21.08.1965 1730 1770 52.00 60 1.8 31.2 8.8 0.41 12.2 29.07.1966 1480 28.00 29 2.5 0.17 12.1 10.08.1968 3150 50.00 25 3.2 18.8 0.4>Average peak 02.08.1971 13.06.1976 4740 4570 73.00 22 6 14 7 0.17 16.6 3.4 4745 301052 discharges: 04.07.1977 42.4 4789 1732718 16.07.1977 2670 42.00 26 11 0.07 15.5 06.09.1978 4890 4700 136.00 62 1.5 30.5 8.7 1.36 12.6 1’000-3’000 m3/s 07.06.1979 30.08.1979 1960 46.00 40 2.2 0.44 11.2 18.1 4770 974533 21.10.1980 802 20.00 40 1 0.78 11.1 16.11.1982 856 19.00 22 1.5 0.42 11.1>Max. peak 28.10.1983 854 45.00 30.08.1984 4940 4570 84.00 42 0.3 19.7 7.9 5.3 14.6 14.08.1986 2130 1980 51.00 22.5 4.7 29.3 9.2 0.24 12.5 discharges: 03.08.1997 09.10.1998 4200 4040 4040 984 75.00 87.90 23 26 5.5 7.5 17.5 9.7 121.4 4819 3370582 >6’000 m3/s 15.11.1998 1920 1850 40.00 28 1.6 26.4 11.4 11.08.1999 6610 6070 1050 150.00 36 16.2 19.8 8.9 08.07.2001 1490 1630 18 3.5 14.5 9 (1961 & 1999) 02.06.2002 09.08.2002 1.6 94.8 4735 4810 100 166394 2780071 13.08.2002 4300 4610 1330 124.80 46 10 36 7.9 25.08.2003 1950 1860 33.5 2 31.5 10.2>Average runoff 14.08.2004 49.3 4784 76 1778928 15.09.2004 63.4 4792 2117480 20.09.2004 1450 1360 35.00 30 6 24 10.5 Volumes: 27.04.2005 02.09.2005 1880 1720 45.00 31 4.2 26.8 10.7 4.1 4741 40 316951 40 – 80 Mio m3 03.07.2006 9.5 4749 50 524973 02.08.2006 3150 3510 55.00 11 2 9 8.2 27.07.2009 44.8 4781 1646677 16.06.2011 0.09 4762Page 34 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012
  35. 35. Kyagar Glacial LakeFlood volumes and calculated lake volumesPage 35 Zollikofen, March 19th, 2012
  36. 36. Early Warning System Date Occurr Volume Hazard In – and Remarks ence of level outflow of of glacier the glacier glacier lake basin lake [m3] 27.08. yes min. very low Inflow: large Lake surface is 2011 45’000 Outflow: similar to August max. large 5th 2011 95’000 Data: SAR backscatter (Terrasar-X) 07.09. yes min. very low Inflow: Lake surface is 2011 45’000 moderate similar to August max. Outflow: 27th 2011 95’000 moderate Data: SAR backscatter (Terrasar-X) 18.09. yes approx. very low Inflow: minor Lake surface is 2011 50’000 Outflow: approx. 50% moderate smaller than 07.09.2011 Data: SAR backscatter (Terrasar-X) TerraSAR-X, August 27th, 2011 21.10. no - - Inflow: dry Lake 2011 Outflow: disappearedPage 36 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012 minor
  37. 37. Early Warning SystemGauge station at Keleqin River / Yarkant River confluence >bridge over a gorge (incised in bedrock), situated approx. 200 km downstream of Kyagar Glacier. >Keleqin River flows through the gorge most of the time. Only in cases of floods,a minor amout of water flows through the riverbed at the east side of the gorge.±Page 37 Data source: Google Earth
  38. 38. Climate Change >Changes among ± 3 SAR images >e.g. determing areas of wet snow (melting)TerraSAR-X RGB composite of red: April 17th, 2011, green August16th, 2011, and blue August 5th, 2011Page 38 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012
  39. 39. Climate Change ± >Feature tracking: displacement rate and directionDisplacement rate determined from TerraSAR-X feature tracking visualizedas layer in Google Earth.Page 39 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012
  40. 40. Climate Change >base of a ± displacement map >potential signals of slope movementThe interferogram shows the phase difference of two SAR images(movement in the line of sight).Page 40 Ort und Datum des Anlasses
  41. 41. Early Warning System Water level Daily System Checkdistance to water level logger temperature Battery Page 41 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012
  42. 42. Early Warning SystemSatellite: Procedure of Early Warning and MonitoringPage 42 Zollikofen, March 19th, 2012
  43. 43. Outlook (2)Further milestones in step 2 and 3>Supply the hydrographic station at Langan with additional instruments for automated runoff monitoring and alarming in case of floods. This station covers a large catchment area and is therefore suitable for recording melt-water, rainfall and glacial lake outburst floods.>Supply the observation station at Cha Hekou with additional instruments for climate monitoring (i.e. rain-observer, temperature sensor) to improve runoff-forecasts after heavy rainfall.>Establish detailed cross-sections for runoff estimations at Cha Hekou.>Survey of a location upstream of Cha Hekou for the installation of a runoff-measuring station.Page 43 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012
  44. 44. Impact on lake formation Maximum lake Potential Lake Potential Peak Year level (m a.s.l.) Volume (mio. Lake Discharge m3) (m3 s-1) 2002 4827 153.6 4666 2004 4809 93.6 3349 2006 4801 75.1 2889 2008 4792 57.5 2416 2011 4762 22.5 1288 2014 4751 16.1 1030 2016 4737 8.5 668 2018 4729 5.8 523 2020 4724 3-5 432 2025 4709 0.8 - 0.01 7Page 44 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012
  45. 45. Modelled annual runoffFigure 6.8: Modelled annual runoff volume fromthe catchment above Kyagar Lake (the sourcearea of Keleqin River). Runoff consists ofrain, snow- and glacier melt. The area of thedrainage basin is 476 km2. The results indicate astrong increase in annual discharge over the nextdecades due to glacier mass loss. Page 45 Hangzhou, April 11th, 2012
  46. 46. Results shown in Google Earth>without flooding >with flooded areas

×