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STRATEGIC PATHS:
SPICEJET AIRLINES, STRUGGLING LCC (INDIA)
PART 1: INTRODUCTION
1.1 Corporate Information
SpiceJet Limited was incorporated on February 9, 1984 as a limited
Company under the Indian Companies Act, 1956 and is listed on the Bombay
Stock Exchange. The Company is engaged in the business of providing air
transport services for the carriage of passengers and cargo. The Company is a low
cost carrier (‘LCC’) operating under the brand name of ‘SpiceJet’ in India since
May 23, 2005. SpiceJet presently operates the new-generation Boeing 737-800s
(20 numbers) with winglets and Boeing 737-900ER (04 numbers). These aircraft
allow for safe, comfortable and efficient flying and are ideally suited for short to
medium-haul flights in Indian conditions. Bombardier Q400 (14 numbers) are
operated for short haul routes, these aircrafts are known for their fuel efficiency
and comfort. SpiceJet has also obtained permission of the Directorate General of
Civil Aviation (DGCA) to operate on selected routes outside India and commenced
international operations from October 2010
The Company has incurred a loss of approx103 million dollars for the
year ended March 31, 2015, and has accumulated losses of approx 500 million
dollars against shareholders’ funds of approx 300 million dollars. As of this date,
the Company’s total liabilities exceed its total assets by 190 million
dollars.(Reference 2)Historically the Company’s operating results have been
materially affected by various factors, including high aviation turbine fuel (“ATF”)
costs, significant depreciation in the value of the currency, and pricing pressures.
On account of its operational and financial position, the Company had also delayed
payments to various parties, including vendors and its dues to statutory authorities,
over the last 12-18 months. These factors have resulted in a material uncertainty
that may cause significant doubt about the Company’s ability to continue as a
going concern.
2. COMPANY RESEARCH
2.1 Environment and competitor analysis
Environmental analysis provides insights into a vibrant and competitive
market with high growth. The LCC market in India is in high growth phase with
ample room for multiple firms to grow. Demographically India is in a sweet spot,
with high growth and sizable population willing and able to afford air travel; next
few years will continue to witness high growth and profitability for air operators.
Strong GDP numbers are also complemented by high Tourism growth numbers,
enhancing growth for domestic as well as international carriers. (Ref. 1)
Indian airline industry is growing at a phenomenal growth rate of 18 to 20 %
YOY basis as per latest stats published by DGCA, the Indian Aviation Regulator.
With Indian GDP expected to grow between 7 to 9 % for next 10 years and huge
population to service, this segment will witness interesting developments. On the
expenses side top three inputs in this segment are Aircraft ownership cost, fuel and
highly specialized manpower. With the lucky drop in ATF prices internationally
most operators have come out of the red in recent months and are entering into fuel
hedging contracts to extend their advantage. Cheap manpower though available in
plenty, but a general deficiency in highly trained and qualified manpower areas
exists. Even today there are a large number of expat pilots employed on the
domestic routes.
2.2 Industry Analysis
With the aviation sector continuing to see a spurt in traffic, many domestic
airlines posted good growth as they ferried 78.72 lakh passengers in March with
no-frills carrier indiGo carrying most passengers during the same period. While the
overall passenger growth stood at around 5.3%, the market share of IndiGo jumped
to 38.4% in March followed by Jet Airways at 17.6% and Air India (14.7%).Latest
data from aviation regulator DGCA released showed that local airlines carried
78.72 lakh passengers last month compared to 74.76 lakh in February. Market
share of various operators in domestic Indian market is as shown:-
Figure 1.Market Share airlines
Socio-cultural trend are likely to remain significant in the near future.
With a large chunk of middle class coupled with high growth in a democratic and
relatively free market environment, these socio cultural factors are likely to
remain positive. An emerging aspect of environmental pollution including noise
is likely to be a significant factor in the coming years. On the technological
front, most LCCs have been using Airbus 320 or Boeing 737s.Both these
aircrafts provide value for money and are economical to operate. Airbus has
launched Airbus 320 Neo recently, which offers 10 to 15 % fuel economy than its
predecessor. These aircrafts have 10 to 15% premium on lease rentals as well.
With high switchover costs considerations, almost all the operators are likely to
continue with their existing fleets. LCC model encourages single type of aircraft
to increase synergy in operations and to reduce costs.
2.3 Competitors' analysis
Major competitors in Low Cost Carrier space are Jet Airways, Air India,
Spice Jet, IndiGo Airlines, and few others with minimal market share. Indian
scenario has also witnessed intense price and differentiation competition in recent
times. Jet Airways and Air India are Full service carriers and operate in a different
sub-segment of this market i.e. full service operators.
Nearest rivals for SpiceJet are Indigo and Go Air which are Low cost operators
and operate in the same space as SpiceJet .Their relative position is as depicted in
the Strategy map (fig. 2). Nature of competition among LCC is based on
operational excellence, innovative cost cutting and branding. Detailed Competitors
analysis data and strategy map depicting positions of various operators is as
shown.
Fig 2. STRATEGY MAP
Spice Jet reported a net profit of Rs 23.77 crore in the third quarter this
year driven by a steep fall in fuel costs and other expenses. Spice Jet benefited
from over a 57 percent drop in jet fuel bill. The airline recorded a load factor of
92.8 percent for the quarter, the highest in the industry," the release said. In line
with year-on-year capacity reduction of 34 percent that was driven by a smaller
fleet in late 2014.
Competitor analysis matrix is composed of some important KPIs
indicating performance is shown in fig 3 below. As PLF of SpiceJet is highest in
the market it can be safely deduced that sales team is very competent.
Management needs to scale up operations in a manner that sales team can match
Differentiation
Profitability
INDIGO
JET AIRLINES
AIR INDIA
SPICEJET
Market share (size)
up. Acquisition plans can be finalized in a manner which requires minimum cost
of capital. This will maximize returns and surplus will fund future growth.
COMPETITORS PERFORMANCE
METRICS
CAPABILITIES VALUES STRATEGY
Mkt
share
PLF Depar
tures
SPICEJET 11.7 92.1 8148
Dynamic Mgt
Prime Slots
Low cost
with
style
LCC
INDIGO 39.8 84.7 23869
Focused LCC
wide network
Consistent
performance
Low cost
with
quality
LCC
AIRINDIA 14.8 80.3 9218
Public sector,
Sufficient
Funding
Full
service
FSC
JETAIRLINES 16.3 82.5 12659
Consistent
performance,
International
slots
Full
service
FSC
GO AIRLINES 7.16 84.9 4507
Fringe player Low cost
evolving
LCC
Fig 3. COMPETITOR ANALYSIS (data as on jul 16)
3. STRATEGIC ISSUES.
SpiceJet is facing many strategic issues and critical choices at the moment.
Current management is trying to reverse some of the big steps that were taken by
the previous management, including the decision to introduce 78-seater turboprops
by the former CEO Neil Mills. But the turnaround won't be easy, given that the
airline has a slew of legacy issues. Its problems include two types of aircraft in its
fleet, a pile of dues, a high employee-plane ratio, mounting losses and a brand
image that has been hurt in recent months due to a series of flight cancellations and
passenger dissatisfaction.
3.1 Focused LCC
Foremost strategic issue is that SpiceJet has to move completely towards the
low-cost carrier (LCC) model. Globally, successful LCCs such as Southwest
Airlines, Ryanair and JetBlue have followed the one-aircraft model. SpiceJet, even
though it is an LCC, has two types of aircraft - Bombardier Q400s and Boeing
737s.SpiceJet bought Q400s in 2011 for short-haul flights connecting large cities -
Hyderabad, Delhi, Chennai - with regional hubs as many airports in these smaller
towns were not capable of landing large aircraft. For instance, airports at cities like
Dehradun and Dharamshala have runways capable of handling only small aircraft
(ATRs and Q400s). Moreover, Q400s made sense because they are fuel-efficient.
Without realising that it could potentially increase the overall costs in the long
term, SpiceJet placed an order for 30 such aircraft.
Today, it has 14 of these jets in its 36-strong fleet. The problem is that a fleet
containing two different types of aircraft increases operational, financial and
managerial complexities. For instance, an airline needs to keep different sets of
pilots, engineers and crew; different contracts and additional cost of maintenance,
repair and overhaul (MRO).
Also, SpiceJet owns these Q400s, unlike the Boeing 737s that it has leased.
So, the company cannot return the Q400s and the options it has is to either sell or
lease these jets. For now, the Q400s have been included in the summer schedule
because Singh doesn't want to create a vacuum all of a sudden. "These planes can
be sold. Let me see if I can first make money from them. If I sell them, I don't
know what price I will get. We will have to consider everything," he says.
The departures will increase to 280 in summer as the fleet size will reach 40 with
the addition of more Boeings. "We want to increase the fleet to 46-47 in the winter
schedule depending on demand. The expansion is happening on the Boeing fleet,"
says its CEO.
3.2 Capital Infusion
Second strategic issue SpiceJet is facing is urgent capital infusion. Considering the
near bankruptcy which SpiceJet narrowly missed, and the subsequent change of
ownership, SpiceJet has seen infusion of some Rs 500 crore from Singh. As per the
plan, the airline will get Rs 1,500 crore of fresh infusion in three equal tranches of
Rs 500 crore. The airline still owes around Rs 1,000 crore to vendors and lessors,
as well as engineering payments and some airport dues. As SpiceJet needs working
capital to sustain and urgent capital infusion to the tune of 1500 crores is critical.
3.3 Rationalizing Its Network/Operations
SpiceJet is working on other areas to bring down non-fuel costs. It has
rationalized its workforce. However, more needs to be done. As per the global
LCC standards, an airline should not have more than 90 people per aircraft. In
early 2013, this figure stood at 140 for SpiceJet. It has been brought down now. In
the summer schedule, it will be 95-97 people per aircraft, according to its CEO.
Cost cutting by controlling the employee-aircraft ratio (Efficiency) is a significant
part of overall strategy for all LCCs.
In the cost-control exercise, IndiGo's employee-aircraft ratio is
approximately 100-102 now. However, Jet Airways has a ratio of 130, while Air
India's number is 262. IndiGo closely monitors turnaround time and fixes tough
targets: currently it gets an aircraft ready for its next flight in 31 minutes (Industry
record). This helps the airline achieve its target of keeping the plane airborne.
Also, its fleet consists of only one type of aircraft: the Airbus A-320. That’s why; it
is required to deal with one set of pilots, spares and engines. This simplifies the
process of running the airline and also keeps costs on a tight leash. This is in
contrast to a rival like SpiceJet which has two sets of aircraft. SpiceJet in order to
become strong competitor has to engage in major cost cutting exercise without
compromising on quality issues.
3.4 Realign Marketing Strategy
One of the main reasons that brought down SpiceJet under Marans (Previous
Owner) was the frequent flash sales - fares offered at lower rates to drive ticket
sales. It seems that even the new promoter is following the same path to a lesser
intensity. Since January 28, there have been six flash sales by SpiceJet, the most
recent being the "Color the Skies" offer for Holi(Indian festival) where tickets for
domestic flights are sold at Rs 1,699 and international flights at Rs 3,799. A total
of 1, 00,000 seats were on offer under this sale. Flash sales are an interesting way
of stimulating demand. Due to suspension of service, the carrier had become a little
unreliable. People had stopped thinking of flying on SpiceJet. These sales allowed
people to sample SpiceJet again," management says. This point assumes
significance considering indigo airline, the main competitor for SpiceJet never
indulges in such Flash Sales at through away prices.
3.5 Renegotiate Service Contracts.
One important integral factor to operations cost is maintenance and spares which
constitute a major chunk of the operational costs. As we say the airline is
profitable the longer it stays in the air. The focal point here is that any LCC
doesn’t have to maintain a large inventory of spares or engines. Most engine
manufacturers are offering new service contracts, which offer maintenance costs
based on number of hours flown by the engines. This simplifies the cost control
mechanism, especially for LCCs, which mostly operates on a tight budget. How
the grounded aircraft is bad can be pointed out by what happened in 2010 when
Kingfisher Airlines had to ground its aircraft because of snags in the engine, but
IndiGo, which used the same machine didn't had to because of the elaborate vendor
support contracts. These contracts though look costly but work out useful in the
long run, considering unpredictable environment and slow parts import
mechanisms prevailing in India. Also, IndiGo gets its C-checks done in Sri Lanka,
unlike its competitors who send their aircraft to as far as Dubai, Hong Kong,
Singapore etc. Obviously, this along with maintenance costs is the defining number
that drives the business.
4. MAJOR STRATEGIC ISSUE
SpiceJet has been dishing out very good statistics for the past 6 months. A
detailed look at its financials reveals inherent weaknesses which can’t be overcome
by operational excellence alone. Considering low ATF costs and booming
domestic sector coupled with easy aircraft availability now is the best time to
accumulate some capital for future hard days. If ATF prices pick up or some
geopolitical incident impacts negatively air travel, Airlines should have enough
capital to absorb shocks. As Indian market is entering sustained double digit
growth in demand existing players are jockeying for position of competitive
advantage by adopting different strategies. Competitors which identify real issues
and address these by following correct strategy in tandem with changing
environment will reap benefits. Considering present market dynamics and by using
competitor analysis Sustainable Growth seems to be of utmost significance.
Sustainable Growth. SpiceJet is currently grappling with capital inadequacy
issues and also had to lose many aircraft due to lease renewal issues. On the other
hand it is doing very well on most operational KPIs viz. OTP, PLF, RPKs and
departures to name a few. This indicates that it has a strong operations and sales
teams but it needs to clean up its financial and other issues to be a potent
competitor in Indian market. As all indicators point to a strong growth in the
domestic market, SpiceJet has to find way to achieve growth in integral and cost
effective manner. Their operations department should be able to support sustained
growth and airline should aim at least 20% market share by last quarter 2018.
Airlines are inherently capital intensive and in order to fund growth and scale up
operations, access to adequate funds by promoters is essential. LCCs are operating
on razor thin margins, any extra outgo towards cost of capital or poorly funded
acquisition plans can make or mar an LCC. It should be a prime strategic issue for
management of SpiceJet to resolve.
PART II: PATHS FOR STRATEGIC ACTION
Considering the target of sustainable growth as being the single most
strategic issue faced by Spice Jet, it can be safely assumed that Airline
management should focus exclusively on Growth in the near future. There are
many other issues which need to be addressed to by forming a joint strategy
catering to most of these issues.
Various paths can be adopted to achieve sustainable growth .As Indian civil
aviation is witnessing a boom time(Ref.
1) especially in the LCC segment, where
SpiceJet is operating, it doesn’t have to change its position relative to its
competitors. Though its tag line says; Airline with Spice, actually what passengers
consider utmost while buying LCC ticket is Cost, Schedule, Connectivity and
punctuality in same order of priority. It is opined that Spice Jet should focus
primarily on the cost cutting as a survival measure rather than an option. Most
critical parameter and KPI to watch closely, probably on the daily basis is CASK.
(Cost per Aircraft Seat Kilometer flown)However following three discreet paths
are advocated to steer the company to desired competitive position vis-a-vis its
competitors. These are:
a) Conventional growth through scaling up operations.
b) Reorganize operations and aim for organic growth till losses are wiped out.
c) Recapitalize then scale up aggressively.
Option 1: Conventional growth through scaling up operations.
Classical model for growth advocates achieving this by:
i) Standard scaling up operations.
ii) Entry into new areas or segments.
iii) Innovation.
iv) Acquisition.
Current environmental analysis shows achieving growth by acquisition as the least
attractive option. As most low cost operators are operating with dry lease aircrafts,
acquiring other regional LCC doesn’t do any value addition to the SpiceJet. There
is very little scope to innovate either in the LCC segment to achieve dramatic
results. As most customers of Indian low-cost segment are primarily focused on
cost and schedule of the flight, any innovative value addition which increases the
cost of travel is likely to be rejected by most travelers. In this scenario only
innovation which can cut down costs of operation without compromising safety
and regulatory aspects will only be worthy of acceptance.
The above mentioned facts lead us to the only serious efforts to be focused
towards achieving growth by scaling up and by entry into new growth sectors.
Considering the competitive environment in low cost carriers and their growth
plans, it seems that most competitors have already planned capacity expansion for
next two to three years. IndiGo is a major contender with committed capacity
expansion. They already have plans and contracted for capacity expansion at the
rate of 25% YOY basis, as disclosed in their last Quarter disclosure.(Ref. 4).Threat
to serious expansion by increasing capacity also comes from an unexpected
competitor Air India. Recently Air India has launched scheme whereby it will offer
its unsold tickets at the train fares just 3 hrs before flight. It is yet to impact the
markets significantly but it has the potential to spoil the party for other LCCs in the
long run.
The only difference that a management can make is; study the increased
capacity deployments plan of other competitors and redeploy our own capacity as
per our own strengths and exclusive insights. This can turn out to be a
differentiating factor, and yield better result as compared to our competitors.
Summary of path 1.
Aim for Organic growth, scale up operations through conventional funding
Pros:
i) Right thing to do as per conventional wisdom, when market demand is growing
go for capacity expansion capture large market share as quickly as possible.
ii) PLF is high if capacity expansion deployed properly may result in windfall.
iii) Last qtr financial results indicate Growth in terms of RASK as well, this
indicates company could achieve increased supply without dropping ticket prices,
that gives confidence going ahead with capacity roll out.
Cons:
i) Most competitors going in for capacity expansion, it is likely that yields will
drop across the board, may result in losses or may take longer to break even.
ii) Cost of funding may increase CASK/M, with decreasing yields projected from
last quarter FY 16 may stretch already stressed balance sheet.
iii) If capacity roll out is not planned properly yields may fall. In view of external
debt used for capacity build up, situation may be precarious, especially if there is
sudden fall in traffic volumes like 9/11 in the USA market. (No scope for error)
Option 2: Growth through reorganizing operations.
Alliance with Bombardier for long term maintenance contract.
The given environment can be analysed as a high growth market with high
level of competition. Most competitors have very little differentiation leverage to
increase yields. Only way to increase profitability is to reduce costs. Considering
Fuel and ownership costs for aircraft being the major component of operating
costs, it seems SpiceJet is sitting on a Golden opportunity. Currently SpiceJet has
15 Bombardier Q 400 Aircraft which the company purchased in 2012.In recent
years SpiceJet is trying to revert to classical LCC model by shifting to single type
of aircraft. This reversal is being considered actively by SpiceJet management due
to failed strategy pushed by previous CEO. In my opinion that strategy was not a
bad strategy at all, it failed because of poor execution and inability of SpiceJet
management to finalize effective and economical maintenance contracts for Q 400
fleet.
As it is well known that Q400 is extremely efficient and economical aircraft
and would have yielded handsome returns provided Team SpiceJet been able to
implement a workable operational usage plan. Because the management could not
put together operational utilization plan (pilots and Maintenance regime), this fleet
acted as a drag for the company and present management is exploring
economically prudent ways to come out of this situation. There are indications that
company might dispose of these aircraft and switch to single aircraft policy.
It is proposed that SpiceJet revisits the strategy of hiving of Bombardier fleet at a
loss and instead works on a better implementation strategy for the old plan. In
recent years there have been some significant changes in the environment which
supports this approach. First and the foremost is significant enhancement of
Bombardier company operations and facilities in India. SpiceJet should
renegotiate Aircraft maintenance contracts with the Parent company at an attractive
cost. As bombardier is expanding its operations in India they also need new
contracts. SpiceJet should aim to bargain with a benchmark rates to bring
maintenance costs to a fraction of Airbus or Boeing, which almost all of its
competitors are using. As it is already well known that Q 400 operating cost per
RPK/M is a fraction of that of Boeing for short hauls, it will turn out to be a win-
win situation for both SpiceJet as well as Bombardier.
This approach will also benefit SpiceJet in meeting RDG guidelines of
Indian Regulator (DGCA). As per latest Route Dispersal Guidelines there are three
types of routes for Scheduled operators. Routes Type I are lucrative trunk routes,
whereas type II are remote and hilly locations. Types III are the remaining routes.
As per directive all operators to deploy 10% of their Type I capacity on Type II
and not more than 50% on type III. SpiceJet in proposed path will have tremendous
cost benefit in type II and Type III routes and steadily become a cost leader in this
segment. If required for administrative and operational reasons SpiceJet may form
a subsidiary for Q 400 operations based at Calcutta or Lucnow, which are less
congested and are located close to most of these routes.
Summary of path 2.
Proposed path-Reorganize operations and target growth in an organic manner
pursue Alliances to reduce costs.
Pros:
i) Slow growth will ensure optimal capacity utilization
ii) No risk of dropping yields
iii) Extensive utilization of Q400 fleet will ensure higher yields and comparatively
lesser CASK/M.
iv) Alliance with Bombardier for long term maintenance contracts will reduce
costs and free management from difficult and complex spare supply chain and
maintenance issues.
v) More profitability will ensure reduction in debt costs.
Cons:
i) In this approach company will not be able to capture fair share of volume growth
market in India.
ii) No increase in market share and will be difficult to catch up at a later stage.
iii) If not able to execute strategic alliance with Bombardier then risk of saddled
high cost maintenance operations may pull down bottom-line.
Option 3: Recapitalize before scaling up operations for Growth.
SpiceJet is currently in un-enviable position when it comes to capital
Adequacy. With a large Airline operator going bankrupt, in recent times, many
promoters are shaky to put in bulk of their own money to fund capacity growth.
Airline business inherently has long breakeven cycles and many external factors
that affect profitability.
Present financial status of the company is showing early signs of recovery, but a lot
needs to done. SpiceJet reported a net profit of Rs. 407Crore ($62 million dollars))
for FY2016 as against a loss of Rs. 687 Crore (105 million dollars) for FY 2015, a
positive change of Rs. 1094 Crores (167 million dollars). SpiceJet generated
operational revenue of Rs.1, 475 Crore (225 million dollars) in the current quarter,
a growth of 86% over same quarter last year. For FY 2016, SpiceJet posted
operational revenue of Rs. 5,088 Crore (772million dollars) a reduction of 3%
over FY 2015, while its capacity deployed reduced by 11% over the same period.
These figures show that company has achieved desired course correction in real
terms and may be able to bring in strategic investor at equitable terms.
In the proposed approach it is advocated that it will be prudent at this stage
to find a cash rich partner to recapitalize the company. It will bring in much needed
cash to fund operational expenses, pay outstanding dues and provide much needed
capital for capacity expansion. Currently SpiceJet liabilities exceed assets by
around 1500 crores. (Approx 230 million dollars)
It is proposed that SpiceJet makes all out efforts to identify a strategic
investor soon and brings in 500 million dollars of investment. Company is already
working in this direction and is making all efforts to strengthen its balance sheet
before entering any serious negotiations. Reduction of costly debt off its balance
sheet will make costs lower and expansion viable.
Summary of path 3.
Recapitalize: bring in strategic investor and capital for capacity expansion.
Pros:
i) It will reduce costs on account of debt servicing.
ii) It will support economical capacity expansion plan.
iii) It will enhance company reputation in long run amongst suppliers.
Cons:
i) Difficult to find strategic investor for an airline which is already in the red:
250 million dollars can start a new LCC instead.
ii) Strategic investor may bring in cash at unfavorable conditions for existing
shareholders.
APPENDIX A
Subject: PERFORMANCE OF DOMESTIC AIRLINES FOR THE YEAR 2016.
(Source http://www.dgca.nic.in/statistics/airlines)
Traffic data submitted by various domestic airlines has been analysed for the
month of July 2016. Following are the salient features:
Passenger Growth
Passengers carried by domestic airlines during Jan-Jul 2016 were 560.87 lakhs
as against 455.95 lakhs during the corresponding period of previous year thereby
registering a growth of 23.01% (Ref Table 1).
PaxCarried(inLakhs)
600.00
500.00
400.00
300.00
200.00
100.00
0.00
560.87 Growth: YoY = + 23.01 %
MoM = + 25.82%
455.95
2015
2016
67.62
85.08
YoY MoM
Table 1
Passenger Load Factor
The passenger load factors of various scheduled domestic airlines in July 2016
are as follows (Ref Table 2):
Jul-16 Jun-16
PaxLoadFactor(%)
100.0
80.3
82.0
83.8
79.1
80.9
75.2
92.0
93.0
90.3
84.6
83.6
77.9
80.8
81.5
85.7
90.2
75.2
79.0
84.0
82.2
79.4
81.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
Air India Jet JetLite Spicejet Go Air IndiGo Air Costa Air Asia Vistara Air Trujet
Airways Pegasus
Table 2
The passenger load factor in the month of July 2016 has almost
remained constant compared to previous month primarily due to the end
of tourist season.
III - ADDENDUM OF EXHIBITS AND REFERENCES.
1. http://www.dgca.nic.in/statistics/airlines
2. http://www.spicejet.com/CorporateOverview.aspx dated 11 Sep 2016
3. InvestorPresentation-Q4FY16 SpiceJet Corporate disclosure.
4. https://www.goindigo.in/content/dam/goindigo/6e-website/pdf/investor-
relation/financial-results/financial-year-2016-17/quarter-ended-june-30-2016

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STRATEGIC PATHS: SPICEJET AIRLINES, STRUGGLING LCC (INDIA)

  • 1. STRATEGIC PATHS: SPICEJET AIRLINES, STRUGGLING LCC (INDIA) PART 1: INTRODUCTION 1.1 Corporate Information SpiceJet Limited was incorporated on February 9, 1984 as a limited Company under the Indian Companies Act, 1956 and is listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange. The Company is engaged in the business of providing air transport services for the carriage of passengers and cargo. The Company is a low cost carrier (‘LCC’) operating under the brand name of ‘SpiceJet’ in India since May 23, 2005. SpiceJet presently operates the new-generation Boeing 737-800s (20 numbers) with winglets and Boeing 737-900ER (04 numbers). These aircraft allow for safe, comfortable and efficient flying and are ideally suited for short to medium-haul flights in Indian conditions. Bombardier Q400 (14 numbers) are operated for short haul routes, these aircrafts are known for their fuel efficiency and comfort. SpiceJet has also obtained permission of the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) to operate on selected routes outside India and commenced international operations from October 2010 The Company has incurred a loss of approx103 million dollars for the year ended March 31, 2015, and has accumulated losses of approx 500 million dollars against shareholders’ funds of approx 300 million dollars. As of this date, the Company’s total liabilities exceed its total assets by 190 million dollars.(Reference 2)Historically the Company’s operating results have been materially affected by various factors, including high aviation turbine fuel (“ATF”) costs, significant depreciation in the value of the currency, and pricing pressures. On account of its operational and financial position, the Company had also delayed payments to various parties, including vendors and its dues to statutory authorities,
  • 2. over the last 12-18 months. These factors have resulted in a material uncertainty that may cause significant doubt about the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern. 2. COMPANY RESEARCH 2.1 Environment and competitor analysis Environmental analysis provides insights into a vibrant and competitive market with high growth. The LCC market in India is in high growth phase with ample room for multiple firms to grow. Demographically India is in a sweet spot, with high growth and sizable population willing and able to afford air travel; next few years will continue to witness high growth and profitability for air operators. Strong GDP numbers are also complemented by high Tourism growth numbers, enhancing growth for domestic as well as international carriers. (Ref. 1) Indian airline industry is growing at a phenomenal growth rate of 18 to 20 % YOY basis as per latest stats published by DGCA, the Indian Aviation Regulator. With Indian GDP expected to grow between 7 to 9 % for next 10 years and huge population to service, this segment will witness interesting developments. On the expenses side top three inputs in this segment are Aircraft ownership cost, fuel and highly specialized manpower. With the lucky drop in ATF prices internationally most operators have come out of the red in recent months and are entering into fuel hedging contracts to extend their advantage. Cheap manpower though available in plenty, but a general deficiency in highly trained and qualified manpower areas exists. Even today there are a large number of expat pilots employed on the domestic routes. 2.2 Industry Analysis With the aviation sector continuing to see a spurt in traffic, many domestic airlines posted good growth as they ferried 78.72 lakh passengers in March with no-frills carrier indiGo carrying most passengers during the same period. While the overall passenger growth stood at around 5.3%, the market share of IndiGo jumped to 38.4% in March followed by Jet Airways at 17.6% and Air India (14.7%).Latest data from aviation regulator DGCA released showed that local airlines carried
  • 3. 78.72 lakh passengers last month compared to 74.76 lakh in February. Market share of various operators in domestic Indian market is as shown:- Figure 1.Market Share airlines Socio-cultural trend are likely to remain significant in the near future. With a large chunk of middle class coupled with high growth in a democratic and relatively free market environment, these socio cultural factors are likely to remain positive. An emerging aspect of environmental pollution including noise is likely to be a significant factor in the coming years. On the technological front, most LCCs have been using Airbus 320 or Boeing 737s.Both these aircrafts provide value for money and are economical to operate. Airbus has launched Airbus 320 Neo recently, which offers 10 to 15 % fuel economy than its predecessor. These aircrafts have 10 to 15% premium on lease rentals as well. With high switchover costs considerations, almost all the operators are likely to continue with their existing fleets. LCC model encourages single type of aircraft to increase synergy in operations and to reduce costs. 2.3 Competitors' analysis Major competitors in Low Cost Carrier space are Jet Airways, Air India, Spice Jet, IndiGo Airlines, and few others with minimal market share. Indian scenario has also witnessed intense price and differentiation competition in recent times. Jet Airways and Air India are Full service carriers and operate in a different sub-segment of this market i.e. full service operators.
  • 4. Nearest rivals for SpiceJet are Indigo and Go Air which are Low cost operators and operate in the same space as SpiceJet .Their relative position is as depicted in the Strategy map (fig. 2). Nature of competition among LCC is based on operational excellence, innovative cost cutting and branding. Detailed Competitors analysis data and strategy map depicting positions of various operators is as shown. Fig 2. STRATEGY MAP Spice Jet reported a net profit of Rs 23.77 crore in the third quarter this year driven by a steep fall in fuel costs and other expenses. Spice Jet benefited from over a 57 percent drop in jet fuel bill. The airline recorded a load factor of 92.8 percent for the quarter, the highest in the industry," the release said. In line with year-on-year capacity reduction of 34 percent that was driven by a smaller fleet in late 2014. Competitor analysis matrix is composed of some important KPIs indicating performance is shown in fig 3 below. As PLF of SpiceJet is highest in the market it can be safely deduced that sales team is very competent. Management needs to scale up operations in a manner that sales team can match Differentiation Profitability INDIGO JET AIRLINES AIR INDIA SPICEJET Market share (size)
  • 5. up. Acquisition plans can be finalized in a manner which requires minimum cost of capital. This will maximize returns and surplus will fund future growth. COMPETITORS PERFORMANCE METRICS CAPABILITIES VALUES STRATEGY Mkt share PLF Depar tures SPICEJET 11.7 92.1 8148 Dynamic Mgt Prime Slots Low cost with style LCC INDIGO 39.8 84.7 23869 Focused LCC wide network Consistent performance Low cost with quality LCC AIRINDIA 14.8 80.3 9218 Public sector, Sufficient Funding Full service FSC JETAIRLINES 16.3 82.5 12659 Consistent performance, International slots Full service FSC GO AIRLINES 7.16 84.9 4507 Fringe player Low cost evolving LCC Fig 3. COMPETITOR ANALYSIS (data as on jul 16) 3. STRATEGIC ISSUES. SpiceJet is facing many strategic issues and critical choices at the moment. Current management is trying to reverse some of the big steps that were taken by the previous management, including the decision to introduce 78-seater turboprops by the former CEO Neil Mills. But the turnaround won't be easy, given that the airline has a slew of legacy issues. Its problems include two types of aircraft in its fleet, a pile of dues, a high employee-plane ratio, mounting losses and a brand image that has been hurt in recent months due to a series of flight cancellations and passenger dissatisfaction. 3.1 Focused LCC Foremost strategic issue is that SpiceJet has to move completely towards the low-cost carrier (LCC) model. Globally, successful LCCs such as Southwest Airlines, Ryanair and JetBlue have followed the one-aircraft model. SpiceJet, even though it is an LCC, has two types of aircraft - Bombardier Q400s and Boeing 737s.SpiceJet bought Q400s in 2011 for short-haul flights connecting large cities -
  • 6. Hyderabad, Delhi, Chennai - with regional hubs as many airports in these smaller towns were not capable of landing large aircraft. For instance, airports at cities like Dehradun and Dharamshala have runways capable of handling only small aircraft (ATRs and Q400s). Moreover, Q400s made sense because they are fuel-efficient. Without realising that it could potentially increase the overall costs in the long term, SpiceJet placed an order for 30 such aircraft. Today, it has 14 of these jets in its 36-strong fleet. The problem is that a fleet containing two different types of aircraft increases operational, financial and managerial complexities. For instance, an airline needs to keep different sets of pilots, engineers and crew; different contracts and additional cost of maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO). Also, SpiceJet owns these Q400s, unlike the Boeing 737s that it has leased. So, the company cannot return the Q400s and the options it has is to either sell or lease these jets. For now, the Q400s have been included in the summer schedule because Singh doesn't want to create a vacuum all of a sudden. "These planes can be sold. Let me see if I can first make money from them. If I sell them, I don't know what price I will get. We will have to consider everything," he says. The departures will increase to 280 in summer as the fleet size will reach 40 with the addition of more Boeings. "We want to increase the fleet to 46-47 in the winter schedule depending on demand. The expansion is happening on the Boeing fleet," says its CEO. 3.2 Capital Infusion Second strategic issue SpiceJet is facing is urgent capital infusion. Considering the near bankruptcy which SpiceJet narrowly missed, and the subsequent change of ownership, SpiceJet has seen infusion of some Rs 500 crore from Singh. As per the plan, the airline will get Rs 1,500 crore of fresh infusion in three equal tranches of Rs 500 crore. The airline still owes around Rs 1,000 crore to vendors and lessors, as well as engineering payments and some airport dues. As SpiceJet needs working capital to sustain and urgent capital infusion to the tune of 1500 crores is critical. 3.3 Rationalizing Its Network/Operations SpiceJet is working on other areas to bring down non-fuel costs. It has rationalized its workforce. However, more needs to be done. As per the global LCC standards, an airline should not have more than 90 people per aircraft. In early 2013, this figure stood at 140 for SpiceJet. It has been brought down now. In the summer schedule, it will be 95-97 people per aircraft, according to its CEO. Cost cutting by controlling the employee-aircraft ratio (Efficiency) is a significant part of overall strategy for all LCCs. In the cost-control exercise, IndiGo's employee-aircraft ratio is approximately 100-102 now. However, Jet Airways has a ratio of 130, while Air
  • 7. India's number is 262. IndiGo closely monitors turnaround time and fixes tough targets: currently it gets an aircraft ready for its next flight in 31 minutes (Industry record). This helps the airline achieve its target of keeping the plane airborne. Also, its fleet consists of only one type of aircraft: the Airbus A-320. That’s why; it is required to deal with one set of pilots, spares and engines. This simplifies the process of running the airline and also keeps costs on a tight leash. This is in contrast to a rival like SpiceJet which has two sets of aircraft. SpiceJet in order to become strong competitor has to engage in major cost cutting exercise without compromising on quality issues. 3.4 Realign Marketing Strategy One of the main reasons that brought down SpiceJet under Marans (Previous Owner) was the frequent flash sales - fares offered at lower rates to drive ticket sales. It seems that even the new promoter is following the same path to a lesser intensity. Since January 28, there have been six flash sales by SpiceJet, the most recent being the "Color the Skies" offer for Holi(Indian festival) where tickets for domestic flights are sold at Rs 1,699 and international flights at Rs 3,799. A total of 1, 00,000 seats were on offer under this sale. Flash sales are an interesting way of stimulating demand. Due to suspension of service, the carrier had become a little unreliable. People had stopped thinking of flying on SpiceJet. These sales allowed people to sample SpiceJet again," management says. This point assumes significance considering indigo airline, the main competitor for SpiceJet never indulges in such Flash Sales at through away prices. 3.5 Renegotiate Service Contracts. One important integral factor to operations cost is maintenance and spares which constitute a major chunk of the operational costs. As we say the airline is profitable the longer it stays in the air. The focal point here is that any LCC doesn’t have to maintain a large inventory of spares or engines. Most engine manufacturers are offering new service contracts, which offer maintenance costs based on number of hours flown by the engines. This simplifies the cost control mechanism, especially for LCCs, which mostly operates on a tight budget. How the grounded aircraft is bad can be pointed out by what happened in 2010 when Kingfisher Airlines had to ground its aircraft because of snags in the engine, but IndiGo, which used the same machine didn't had to because of the elaborate vendor support contracts. These contracts though look costly but work out useful in the long run, considering unpredictable environment and slow parts import mechanisms prevailing in India. Also, IndiGo gets its C-checks done in Sri Lanka, unlike its competitors who send their aircraft to as far as Dubai, Hong Kong,
  • 8. Singapore etc. Obviously, this along with maintenance costs is the defining number that drives the business. 4. MAJOR STRATEGIC ISSUE SpiceJet has been dishing out very good statistics for the past 6 months. A detailed look at its financials reveals inherent weaknesses which can’t be overcome by operational excellence alone. Considering low ATF costs and booming domestic sector coupled with easy aircraft availability now is the best time to accumulate some capital for future hard days. If ATF prices pick up or some geopolitical incident impacts negatively air travel, Airlines should have enough capital to absorb shocks. As Indian market is entering sustained double digit growth in demand existing players are jockeying for position of competitive advantage by adopting different strategies. Competitors which identify real issues and address these by following correct strategy in tandem with changing environment will reap benefits. Considering present market dynamics and by using competitor analysis Sustainable Growth seems to be of utmost significance. Sustainable Growth. SpiceJet is currently grappling with capital inadequacy issues and also had to lose many aircraft due to lease renewal issues. On the other hand it is doing very well on most operational KPIs viz. OTP, PLF, RPKs and departures to name a few. This indicates that it has a strong operations and sales teams but it needs to clean up its financial and other issues to be a potent competitor in Indian market. As all indicators point to a strong growth in the domestic market, SpiceJet has to find way to achieve growth in integral and cost effective manner. Their operations department should be able to support sustained growth and airline should aim at least 20% market share by last quarter 2018. Airlines are inherently capital intensive and in order to fund growth and scale up operations, access to adequate funds by promoters is essential. LCCs are operating on razor thin margins, any extra outgo towards cost of capital or poorly funded acquisition plans can make or mar an LCC. It should be a prime strategic issue for management of SpiceJet to resolve.
  • 9. PART II: PATHS FOR STRATEGIC ACTION Considering the target of sustainable growth as being the single most strategic issue faced by Spice Jet, it can be safely assumed that Airline management should focus exclusively on Growth in the near future. There are many other issues which need to be addressed to by forming a joint strategy catering to most of these issues. Various paths can be adopted to achieve sustainable growth .As Indian civil aviation is witnessing a boom time(Ref. 1) especially in the LCC segment, where SpiceJet is operating, it doesn’t have to change its position relative to its competitors. Though its tag line says; Airline with Spice, actually what passengers consider utmost while buying LCC ticket is Cost, Schedule, Connectivity and punctuality in same order of priority. It is opined that Spice Jet should focus primarily on the cost cutting as a survival measure rather than an option. Most critical parameter and KPI to watch closely, probably on the daily basis is CASK. (Cost per Aircraft Seat Kilometer flown)However following three discreet paths are advocated to steer the company to desired competitive position vis-a-vis its competitors. These are: a) Conventional growth through scaling up operations. b) Reorganize operations and aim for organic growth till losses are wiped out. c) Recapitalize then scale up aggressively. Option 1: Conventional growth through scaling up operations. Classical model for growth advocates achieving this by: i) Standard scaling up operations. ii) Entry into new areas or segments. iii) Innovation. iv) Acquisition.
  • 10. Current environmental analysis shows achieving growth by acquisition as the least attractive option. As most low cost operators are operating with dry lease aircrafts, acquiring other regional LCC doesn’t do any value addition to the SpiceJet. There is very little scope to innovate either in the LCC segment to achieve dramatic results. As most customers of Indian low-cost segment are primarily focused on cost and schedule of the flight, any innovative value addition which increases the cost of travel is likely to be rejected by most travelers. In this scenario only innovation which can cut down costs of operation without compromising safety and regulatory aspects will only be worthy of acceptance. The above mentioned facts lead us to the only serious efforts to be focused towards achieving growth by scaling up and by entry into new growth sectors. Considering the competitive environment in low cost carriers and their growth plans, it seems that most competitors have already planned capacity expansion for next two to three years. IndiGo is a major contender with committed capacity expansion. They already have plans and contracted for capacity expansion at the rate of 25% YOY basis, as disclosed in their last Quarter disclosure.(Ref. 4).Threat to serious expansion by increasing capacity also comes from an unexpected competitor Air India. Recently Air India has launched scheme whereby it will offer its unsold tickets at the train fares just 3 hrs before flight. It is yet to impact the markets significantly but it has the potential to spoil the party for other LCCs in the long run. The only difference that a management can make is; study the increased capacity deployments plan of other competitors and redeploy our own capacity as per our own strengths and exclusive insights. This can turn out to be a differentiating factor, and yield better result as compared to our competitors. Summary of path 1. Aim for Organic growth, scale up operations through conventional funding Pros: i) Right thing to do as per conventional wisdom, when market demand is growing go for capacity expansion capture large market share as quickly as possible. ii) PLF is high if capacity expansion deployed properly may result in windfall. iii) Last qtr financial results indicate Growth in terms of RASK as well, this indicates company could achieve increased supply without dropping ticket prices, that gives confidence going ahead with capacity roll out.
  • 11. Cons: i) Most competitors going in for capacity expansion, it is likely that yields will drop across the board, may result in losses or may take longer to break even. ii) Cost of funding may increase CASK/M, with decreasing yields projected from last quarter FY 16 may stretch already stressed balance sheet. iii) If capacity roll out is not planned properly yields may fall. In view of external debt used for capacity build up, situation may be precarious, especially if there is sudden fall in traffic volumes like 9/11 in the USA market. (No scope for error) Option 2: Growth through reorganizing operations. Alliance with Bombardier for long term maintenance contract. The given environment can be analysed as a high growth market with high level of competition. Most competitors have very little differentiation leverage to increase yields. Only way to increase profitability is to reduce costs. Considering Fuel and ownership costs for aircraft being the major component of operating costs, it seems SpiceJet is sitting on a Golden opportunity. Currently SpiceJet has 15 Bombardier Q 400 Aircraft which the company purchased in 2012.In recent years SpiceJet is trying to revert to classical LCC model by shifting to single type of aircraft. This reversal is being considered actively by SpiceJet management due to failed strategy pushed by previous CEO. In my opinion that strategy was not a bad strategy at all, it failed because of poor execution and inability of SpiceJet management to finalize effective and economical maintenance contracts for Q 400 fleet. As it is well known that Q400 is extremely efficient and economical aircraft and would have yielded handsome returns provided Team SpiceJet been able to implement a workable operational usage plan. Because the management could not put together operational utilization plan (pilots and Maintenance regime), this fleet acted as a drag for the company and present management is exploring economically prudent ways to come out of this situation. There are indications that company might dispose of these aircraft and switch to single aircraft policy.
  • 12. It is proposed that SpiceJet revisits the strategy of hiving of Bombardier fleet at a loss and instead works on a better implementation strategy for the old plan. In recent years there have been some significant changes in the environment which supports this approach. First and the foremost is significant enhancement of Bombardier company operations and facilities in India. SpiceJet should renegotiate Aircraft maintenance contracts with the Parent company at an attractive cost. As bombardier is expanding its operations in India they also need new contracts. SpiceJet should aim to bargain with a benchmark rates to bring maintenance costs to a fraction of Airbus or Boeing, which almost all of its competitors are using. As it is already well known that Q 400 operating cost per RPK/M is a fraction of that of Boeing for short hauls, it will turn out to be a win- win situation for both SpiceJet as well as Bombardier. This approach will also benefit SpiceJet in meeting RDG guidelines of Indian Regulator (DGCA). As per latest Route Dispersal Guidelines there are three types of routes for Scheduled operators. Routes Type I are lucrative trunk routes, whereas type II are remote and hilly locations. Types III are the remaining routes. As per directive all operators to deploy 10% of their Type I capacity on Type II and not more than 50% on type III. SpiceJet in proposed path will have tremendous cost benefit in type II and Type III routes and steadily become a cost leader in this segment. If required for administrative and operational reasons SpiceJet may form a subsidiary for Q 400 operations based at Calcutta or Lucnow, which are less congested and are located close to most of these routes. Summary of path 2. Proposed path-Reorganize operations and target growth in an organic manner pursue Alliances to reduce costs. Pros: i) Slow growth will ensure optimal capacity utilization ii) No risk of dropping yields iii) Extensive utilization of Q400 fleet will ensure higher yields and comparatively lesser CASK/M. iv) Alliance with Bombardier for long term maintenance contracts will reduce costs and free management from difficult and complex spare supply chain and maintenance issues.
  • 13. v) More profitability will ensure reduction in debt costs. Cons: i) In this approach company will not be able to capture fair share of volume growth market in India. ii) No increase in market share and will be difficult to catch up at a later stage. iii) If not able to execute strategic alliance with Bombardier then risk of saddled high cost maintenance operations may pull down bottom-line. Option 3: Recapitalize before scaling up operations for Growth. SpiceJet is currently in un-enviable position when it comes to capital Adequacy. With a large Airline operator going bankrupt, in recent times, many promoters are shaky to put in bulk of their own money to fund capacity growth. Airline business inherently has long breakeven cycles and many external factors that affect profitability. Present financial status of the company is showing early signs of recovery, but a lot needs to done. SpiceJet reported a net profit of Rs. 407Crore ($62 million dollars)) for FY2016 as against a loss of Rs. 687 Crore (105 million dollars) for FY 2015, a positive change of Rs. 1094 Crores (167 million dollars). SpiceJet generated operational revenue of Rs.1, 475 Crore (225 million dollars) in the current quarter, a growth of 86% over same quarter last year. For FY 2016, SpiceJet posted operational revenue of Rs. 5,088 Crore (772million dollars) a reduction of 3% over FY 2015, while its capacity deployed reduced by 11% over the same period. These figures show that company has achieved desired course correction in real terms and may be able to bring in strategic investor at equitable terms. In the proposed approach it is advocated that it will be prudent at this stage to find a cash rich partner to recapitalize the company. It will bring in much needed cash to fund operational expenses, pay outstanding dues and provide much needed capital for capacity expansion. Currently SpiceJet liabilities exceed assets by around 1500 crores. (Approx 230 million dollars) It is proposed that SpiceJet makes all out efforts to identify a strategic investor soon and brings in 500 million dollars of investment. Company is already
  • 14. working in this direction and is making all efforts to strengthen its balance sheet before entering any serious negotiations. Reduction of costly debt off its balance sheet will make costs lower and expansion viable. Summary of path 3. Recapitalize: bring in strategic investor and capital for capacity expansion. Pros: i) It will reduce costs on account of debt servicing. ii) It will support economical capacity expansion plan. iii) It will enhance company reputation in long run amongst suppliers. Cons: i) Difficult to find strategic investor for an airline which is already in the red: 250 million dollars can start a new LCC instead. ii) Strategic investor may bring in cash at unfavorable conditions for existing shareholders.
  • 15. APPENDIX A Subject: PERFORMANCE OF DOMESTIC AIRLINES FOR THE YEAR 2016. (Source http://www.dgca.nic.in/statistics/airlines) Traffic data submitted by various domestic airlines has been analysed for the month of July 2016. Following are the salient features: Passenger Growth Passengers carried by domestic airlines during Jan-Jul 2016 were 560.87 lakhs as against 455.95 lakhs during the corresponding period of previous year thereby registering a growth of 23.01% (Ref Table 1). PaxCarried(inLakhs) 600.00 500.00 400.00 300.00 200.00 100.00 0.00 560.87 Growth: YoY = + 23.01 % MoM = + 25.82% 455.95 2015 2016 67.62 85.08 YoY MoM Table 1
  • 16. Passenger Load Factor The passenger load factors of various scheduled domestic airlines in July 2016 are as follows (Ref Table 2): Jul-16 Jun-16 PaxLoadFactor(%) 100.0 80.3 82.0 83.8 79.1 80.9 75.2 92.0 93.0 90.3 84.6 83.6 77.9 80.8 81.5 85.7 90.2 75.2 79.0 84.0 82.2 79.4 81.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 Air India Jet JetLite Spicejet Go Air IndiGo Air Costa Air Asia Vistara Air Trujet Airways Pegasus Table 2 The passenger load factor in the month of July 2016 has almost remained constant compared to previous month primarily due to the end of tourist season.
  • 17. III - ADDENDUM OF EXHIBITS AND REFERENCES. 1. http://www.dgca.nic.in/statistics/airlines 2. http://www.spicejet.com/CorporateOverview.aspx dated 11 Sep 2016 3. InvestorPresentation-Q4FY16 SpiceJet Corporate disclosure. 4. https://www.goindigo.in/content/dam/goindigo/6e-website/pdf/investor- relation/financial-results/financial-year-2016-17/quarter-ended-june-30-2016