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VII: Futures
22: Hedging, Speculation, and Arbitrage
Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage © Oltheten & Waspi 2012
Futures
 Hedge
 use futures to reduce risk on an existing
position
 Speculate
 use futures to take on risk in the hope of
making a profit
 Arbitrage
 Use the difference between spot and futures
prices to generate risk-free profit
Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage © Oltheten & Waspi 2012
Hedge
 Identify the existing risk
 50,000 bushels of
soybeans growing in
the fields
 The current price of
$4.20/bushel can change
before George can
harvest & sell
Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage
Existing Risk: Long soybeans
$180,000
$190,000
$200,000
$210,000
$220,000
$230,000
$240,000
360 380 400 420 440 460 480
Price (Soybeans Spot)
Income
© Oltheten & Waspi 2012
Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage © Oltheten & Waspi 2012
Hedge
 An investment that offsets this risk
 Short soybeans
 Short Soybean futures
Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage © Oltheten & Waspi 2012
Hedge Strategy
 If soybean prices increase
 Long Spot J
 Short Futures L
 If soybean prices decrease
 Long Spot L
 Short Futures J
K
K
Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage © Oltheten & Waspi 2012
Hedge Strategy
 Use November Futures
November
contracts
deliver
plant
October ?
harvest
Set
Hedge
Spot risk
Lift
Hedge
Offsetting futures risk
Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage © Oltheten & Waspi 2012
Set the Hedge
 George sets the hedge in April
 Spot price: $4.20/bu
 Futures price: 431
 Basis (spot-futures) = -11¢
Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage © Oltheten & Waspi 2012
Set the Hedge
 Set the hedge in April
November
contracts
deliver
$4.20
October ?
harvest
431
Lift
Hedge
-11¢
Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage © Oltheten & Waspi 2012
George Q. Farmer
Hedge is set
Set the Hedge
Long Position (spot)
Short Position
(futures)
431
-$50,000
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
360 380 400 420 440 460 480
Price (Soybeans Spot)
Income
Short Position
Long
Position
Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage © Oltheten & Waspi 2012
Scenario 1: Textbook Hedge
 George harvests October 1
 Spot price: $4.00/bu
 Futures price: 411
 Basis (spot-futures) = -11¢
Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage
Lift Hedge
November
contracts
deliver
$4.00$4.20
411
-11¢
431
-11¢
© Oltheten & Waspi 2012
Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage © Oltheten & Waspi 2012
George Q. Farmer
Hedge is set Sell 10 November futures @ 431
[10*5,000*431 = $215,500]
Margin:
Hedge is
lifted
Buy 10 November futures @ 411
[10*5,000*411 = $205,500]
Margin:
Profit:
Sell 50,000 soybeans spot @$4.00
Net Income:
Lift the Hedge
Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage © Oltheten & Waspi 2012
Lift the Hedge
 Textbook Hedge
Spot price:
$4.20 $4.00
price: 431 price: 411
Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage © Oltheten & Waspi 2012
Scenario 2: Not quite a Textbook Hedge
 George harvests October 1
 Spot price: $5.00/bu
 Futures price: 508
 Basis (spot-futures) = -8¢
Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage
Lift the Hedge
November
contracts
deliver
$5.00$4.20
508
-11¢
431
-8¢
© Oltheten & Waspi 2012
Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage © Oltheten & Waspi 2012
George Q. Farmer
Hedge is set Sell 10 November futures @ 431
[10*5,000*431 = $215,500]
Margin:
Hedge is
lifted
Buy 10 November futures @ 508
[10*5,000*508 = $254,000]
Margin:
Profit:
Sell 50,000 soybeans spot @$5.00
Net Income:
Lift the Hedge
Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage © Oltheten & Waspi 2012
Lift the Hedge
 Not quite a Textbook Hedge
Spot price:
$4.20 $5.00
price: 431 price: 508
Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage © Oltheten & Waspi 2012
Hedge
 Once the hedge is set George trades his
Price Risk for Basis Risk
Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage © Oltheten & Waspi 2012
Scenario 3: Not quite a Textbook Hedge
 George harvests October 1
 Spot price: $1.00/bu
 Futures price: 105
 Basis (spot-futures) = -5¢
Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage
Lift Hedge
November
contracts
deliver
$1.00$4.20
105
-11¢
431
-5¢
© Oltheten & Waspi 2012
Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage © Oltheten & Waspi 2012
George Q. Farmer
Hedge is set Sell 10 November futures @ 431
[10*5,000*431 = $215,500]
Margin:
Hedge is
lifted
Buy 10 November futures @ 105
[10*5,000*105 = $52,500]
Margin:
Profit:
Sell 50,000 soybeans spot @$1.00
Net Income:
Lift the Hedge
Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage © Oltheten & Waspi 2012
Lift the Hedge
 Trade Price Risk for Basis Risk
Spot price:
$4.20 $1.00
price: 431 price: 105
Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage © Oltheten & Waspi 2012
Hedge
 George also grows corn (10,000 bushels)
 Futures contracts defined as
 5,000 bushels
 Cents per bushel
 Corn futures deliver March, May, July,
September, & December.
Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage © Oltheten & Waspi 2012
Set the Hedge
 In April
 Spot corn is $2.00/bushel
 December corn futures trade at 195
 Margin requirements at $400 and $300 per
contract
Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage
Set the Hedge
December
contracts
deliver
$2.00
+5¢
195
© Oltheten & Waspi 2012
Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage © Oltheten & Waspi 2012
George Q. Farmer
Hedge is set
Set the Hedge
Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage © Oltheten & Waspi 2012
Lift the Hedge
 In October
 Spot corn is /bushel
 December corn futures trade at
Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage
Set the Hedge
December
contracts
deliver
$2.00
+5¢
195
© Oltheten & Waspi 2012
Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage © Oltheten & Waspi 2012
George Q. Farmer
Hedge is set Sell 2 December futures @ 195
[2*5,000*195 = $19,500]
Margin:
Hedge is
lifted
Net Income:
Lift the Hedge
Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage
Set the Hedge
November
contracts
deliver
$2.00
+5¢
195
© Oltheten & Waspi 2012
Futures II

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Speculations

  • 1. VII: Futures 22: Hedging, Speculation, and Arbitrage
  • 2. Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage © Oltheten & Waspi 2012 Futures  Hedge  use futures to reduce risk on an existing position  Speculate  use futures to take on risk in the hope of making a profit  Arbitrage  Use the difference between spot and futures prices to generate risk-free profit
  • 3. Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage © Oltheten & Waspi 2012 Hedge  Identify the existing risk  50,000 bushels of soybeans growing in the fields  The current price of $4.20/bushel can change before George can harvest & sell
  • 4. Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage Existing Risk: Long soybeans $180,000 $190,000 $200,000 $210,000 $220,000 $230,000 $240,000 360 380 400 420 440 460 480 Price (Soybeans Spot) Income © Oltheten & Waspi 2012
  • 5. Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage © Oltheten & Waspi 2012 Hedge  An investment that offsets this risk  Short soybeans  Short Soybean futures
  • 6. Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage © Oltheten & Waspi 2012 Hedge Strategy  If soybean prices increase  Long Spot J  Short Futures L  If soybean prices decrease  Long Spot L  Short Futures J K K
  • 7. Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage © Oltheten & Waspi 2012 Hedge Strategy  Use November Futures November contracts deliver plant October ? harvest Set Hedge Spot risk Lift Hedge Offsetting futures risk
  • 8. Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage © Oltheten & Waspi 2012 Set the Hedge  George sets the hedge in April  Spot price: $4.20/bu  Futures price: 431  Basis (spot-futures) = -11¢
  • 9. Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage © Oltheten & Waspi 2012 Set the Hedge  Set the hedge in April November contracts deliver $4.20 October ? harvest 431 Lift Hedge -11¢
  • 10. Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage © Oltheten & Waspi 2012 George Q. Farmer Hedge is set Set the Hedge Long Position (spot) Short Position (futures)
  • 11. 431 -$50,000 $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 360 380 400 420 440 460 480 Price (Soybeans Spot) Income Short Position Long Position
  • 12. Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage © Oltheten & Waspi 2012 Scenario 1: Textbook Hedge  George harvests October 1  Spot price: $4.00/bu  Futures price: 411  Basis (spot-futures) = -11¢
  • 13. Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage Lift Hedge November contracts deliver $4.00$4.20 411 -11¢ 431 -11¢ © Oltheten & Waspi 2012
  • 14. Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage © Oltheten & Waspi 2012 George Q. Farmer Hedge is set Sell 10 November futures @ 431 [10*5,000*431 = $215,500] Margin: Hedge is lifted Buy 10 November futures @ 411 [10*5,000*411 = $205,500] Margin: Profit: Sell 50,000 soybeans spot @$4.00 Net Income: Lift the Hedge
  • 15. Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage © Oltheten & Waspi 2012 Lift the Hedge  Textbook Hedge Spot price: $4.20 $4.00 price: 431 price: 411
  • 16. Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage © Oltheten & Waspi 2012 Scenario 2: Not quite a Textbook Hedge  George harvests October 1  Spot price: $5.00/bu  Futures price: 508  Basis (spot-futures) = -8¢
  • 17. Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage Lift the Hedge November contracts deliver $5.00$4.20 508 -11¢ 431 -8¢ © Oltheten & Waspi 2012
  • 18. Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage © Oltheten & Waspi 2012 George Q. Farmer Hedge is set Sell 10 November futures @ 431 [10*5,000*431 = $215,500] Margin: Hedge is lifted Buy 10 November futures @ 508 [10*5,000*508 = $254,000] Margin: Profit: Sell 50,000 soybeans spot @$5.00 Net Income: Lift the Hedge
  • 19. Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage © Oltheten & Waspi 2012 Lift the Hedge  Not quite a Textbook Hedge Spot price: $4.20 $5.00 price: 431 price: 508
  • 20. Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage © Oltheten & Waspi 2012 Hedge  Once the hedge is set George trades his Price Risk for Basis Risk
  • 21. Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage © Oltheten & Waspi 2012 Scenario 3: Not quite a Textbook Hedge  George harvests October 1  Spot price: $1.00/bu  Futures price: 105  Basis (spot-futures) = -5¢
  • 22. Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage Lift Hedge November contracts deliver $1.00$4.20 105 -11¢ 431 -5¢ © Oltheten & Waspi 2012
  • 23. Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage © Oltheten & Waspi 2012 George Q. Farmer Hedge is set Sell 10 November futures @ 431 [10*5,000*431 = $215,500] Margin: Hedge is lifted Buy 10 November futures @ 105 [10*5,000*105 = $52,500] Margin: Profit: Sell 50,000 soybeans spot @$1.00 Net Income: Lift the Hedge
  • 24. Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage © Oltheten & Waspi 2012 Lift the Hedge  Trade Price Risk for Basis Risk Spot price: $4.20 $1.00 price: 431 price: 105
  • 25. Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage © Oltheten & Waspi 2012 Hedge  George also grows corn (10,000 bushels)  Futures contracts defined as  5,000 bushels  Cents per bushel  Corn futures deliver March, May, July, September, & December.
  • 26. Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage © Oltheten & Waspi 2012 Set the Hedge  In April  Spot corn is $2.00/bushel  December corn futures trade at 195  Margin requirements at $400 and $300 per contract
  • 27. Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage Set the Hedge December contracts deliver $2.00 +5¢ 195 © Oltheten & Waspi 2012
  • 28. Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage © Oltheten & Waspi 2012 George Q. Farmer Hedge is set Set the Hedge
  • 29. Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage © Oltheten & Waspi 2012 Lift the Hedge  In October  Spot corn is /bushel  December corn futures trade at
  • 30. Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage Set the Hedge December contracts deliver $2.00 +5¢ 195 © Oltheten & Waspi 2012
  • 31. Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage © Oltheten & Waspi 2012 George Q. Farmer Hedge is set Sell 2 December futures @ 195 [2*5,000*195 = $19,500] Margin: Hedge is lifted Net Income: Lift the Hedge
  • 32. Chapter 22: Hedges, Speculation, and Arbitrage Set the Hedge November contracts deliver $2.00 +5¢ 195 © Oltheten & Waspi 2012