The document outlines the three phases of technology adoption cycles: exploration, rationalization, and optimization, using historical technology cycles as examples. It discusses the current transition from the optimization phase of traditional IT to the rationalization phase of cloud computing, highlighting trends in software usage and organizational adaptation. A significant growth in public cloud services is anticipated as organizations adjust their strategies towards cloud computing.

1. Second Stage
Cloud
JAMES STATEN VP & ANALYST | FORRESTER RESEARCH | @Staten7

2. Tech adoption stages (or cycles)
Each technology “cycle” (the result of technology disruption) is characterized by three periods or phases. Organizations follow
the “phase du jour” in their approach to identifying problems and provide answers to business requirements
› The exploration phase
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• Intense technological competition.
• Search for a dominant technology
› The rationalization phase
• Technological orientation is mostly set
• Competition is on service value
› The optimization phase
• Technology is second, value first
• Competition is on cost/value ratio
Note: all enterprises do not evolve at the same velocity through these phases. Some lag significantly.
Source: February 2014, “Transform I&O For the Future Technology Management Cycle.”

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Each tech cycle’s adoption passes through the three phases
› Mainframe (EDP) Cycle
• Exploration (1964-1974): focus on processor speed, SMP vs. single CPU, OS war culminating with IBM VM, etc..
• Rationalization (1975-1982): focus on software (unbundling of hardware/software), generalization of on-line transactional
processing, introduction of networking “philosophies” (SNA, OSI, X25..) and PDN (Public Data Networks), generalization of ASCII as
data code
• Optimization (1983-1990): focus on packaged applications and dedicated systems (VAX, HP3000), introduction of PC and Unix
workstations. Ends with a pivot to distributed systems to counteract IBM dominance in solution oriented systems (ISV writing to the
broadest platform base).
› Distributed (IT) Cycle
• Exploration (1990-1998): technology wars (RISC and CISC), OS wars (UX, AIX, Solaris). Introduction of “system
management” (SNMP)
• Rationalization (1999-2004): trends to standardize on Intel, Linux and Windows. Accent on software integration, dominance of
TCP-IP and Ethernet
• Optimization (2005-present): commoditization, consolidation and virtualization. IT becomes service oriented.
Source: February 2014, “Transform I&O For the Future Technology Management Cycle.”

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Where are we Today?
›We are concluding the optimization phase
of client-server (traditional IT)
!
›We are entering the rationalization
phase of cloud computing

5. Stage 2: Rationalization of Cloud
›What it means:
•Hypergrowth for cloud services
•Shift in SaaS adoption from biz to IT
•Shift in Cloud platform adoption from DevOps to Coders + Ops
•IT Ops stops fighting against cloud
› Shift in focus to become a broker
› Strategic rightsourcing of the app portfolio
› Rationalization about private cloud initiatives
› But remember, we are just starting phase two

6. This puts public cloud services in hypergrowth mode
April 2014 “The Public Cloud Market Is Now In Hypergrowth”
© 2014 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited

7. How much of the server-side code that you write is deployed to cloud environments today? How do you expect that to
<20% 20% to 39% 40% to 59% 60% to 79% 80% to 99% 100%
Don't know
Current
2015 (estimate)
6%
11%
2017 (estimate) 13%
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127
Huge shift to cloud environments in the next two years
change in the future?
Source: Forrester Research, Forrsights Developer Survey, Q1 2013
11%
11%
4%
5%
20%
6%
3%
18%
30%
6%
19%
15%
16%
13%
23%
24%
6%
40%
Sample Size = 124 Enterprise Developers

8. DevOps gives way to other devs
DevOps
• Coder.
• Must configure
platform
services and
virtual
resources.
• Usually codes
locally, deploys
own stack to
cloud.
Source: Forrester Research, Inc.
Coders
• Coder.
• Avoids platform
and virtual
resource
configuration.
• Usually codes
locally, deploys
own stack to
cloud.
Rapid Devs
• Domain expert.
• Shuns platform
and virtual
resource
configuration.
• Develops in the
cloud platform.

9. High satisfaction on cloud platforms comes through managing
The Uneven Handshake
Vendor
responsibility
Customer responsibility
› Physical support infrastructure (facilities, rack space,
power, cooling, cabling, etc)
› Abstracted services (SaaS application, hosted
framework, customization platform, configurable
security, etc)
› Physical and virtual infrastructure security and
availability (servers, storage, network bandwidth, etc)
› Basic monitoring
› Element management
The Managed Cloud Opportunity
› Your use of the application
› Any technology supplementations (e.g., SSO, BCDR, security)
› Customization & governance (who has authority/responsibility to make changes)
› Lifecycle management (Upgrades, process change, integration changes)
› Customer experience (monitoring & management)
› Business process monitoring, end user performance monitoring (visibility)
› Dependency mapping and tracking
› Capacity management

10. Thank you