1. Introducing Opportunities for Adaptive
Localized Communities in a Changing Climate
Pedcris M. Orencio and Masahiko Fujii
2. Interactions among Society, Environment
and Ecosystem in Coastal and Fisheries
Natural variables such
Climate as temperature, Environmental
Change precipitation, currents, Factors Change?
wind, etc.
Management and Society
Dynamics
utilization (i.e. biodiversity
and Changes
conservation, socio-
economic needs, etc.) Various Behavioral
Ecosystem Outcomes
Services
Abundance of fisheries, Change?
distribution and Ecosystem of Coastal
availability and Fisheries
Climate change can reinforce detrimental effects of human exploitation and
mismanagement, and push species and ecosystem tolerances over their limits
(Walther, et.al. 2002)
3. Why Incorporate Climate Change?
• Climate change is modifying the distribution and
productivity of fish stocks, and is already affecting its
biological processes and trophic inter-relationships (EC-SSP-
RECLAIM, 2009)
• The implications of climate change on food security and
livelihoods in many developing countries are profound
(FAO Policy Brief, 2010)
• The fishermen community has become totally vulnerable
to the climate change, (i.e. Bangladesh) where they
either flee their villages or change profession (Daily Star in
One World, 2009)
4. Forecasting by Analogy Approach
The Province
of Aurora,
Philippines
• Ecosystem Structures
and Dynamics
• Community Outcomes
• Various Ecosystem
Services
• Climate Driven Changes
5. Dinalungan’s Community Outcomes
(CRM Plan)
Violations Mapping for Law
Enforcement Activities
Coastal Zoning
Marine
Community Outcomes – a set of desired state of affairs Protected Areas
that the community identified through a process.
6. Monitoring of Marine Protected Areas
Reef benthic survey and underwater video
transects in Baler ( in 2006), Dipaculao (in
2005) and Dinalungan (in 2003, 2004 & 2006)
Source: ECOGOV 2006
MEAN
LIFEFORM AVERAGE %
CATEGORY CODE COVER Buffer Zone
HARD CORAL HC 19
SOFT CORAL SC 3
Core Zone
DEAD CORAL/ Dinalungan
WITH ALGAE DC/DCA 16
Baler Baler Bay Digisit Punti an
- -
TOTAL ALGAE MA 49 Site
Proposed Marine
OTHER FAUNA OT 0 Sanctuary
TOTAL ABIOTIC AB 8
SPONGE SP 5
UNIDENTIFIED UNID 0
TOTAL 100 Within the range of 11-30% live hard coral cover,
reef is generally fair (see Gomez et al. 1994)
7. Assessment of Reef Fish Abundance
Aurora’s Reef Fish Profile (average Classification based on Philippines’
means of surveyed sites) benchmark figures
Low to Moderate (48 to 75)
Species Diversity 67
(see Hilomen, et al 2002)
Species Abundance Low (202 to 676)
420
(individuals/ sq.km.) (see Hilomen, et al 2002)
Medium (10.1 to 20.0)
Fish Biomass
16.53 (see Alino and Dantis 1991 and
(mt/ sq.km.)
Nanola 2002)
1%
12%
2%
31% 0%
8%
10%
2%
0%
34%
Lapu-lapu (Epinephelinae) Solid/D. Bukid (Caesionidae) Langisi (Lutjanidae)
Paget (Ballistidae) Pakoy (Monacanthidae) Alibang-bang (Chaetodontidae)
Mameng (Labridae) Palata (Pomacentridae) Molmol (Scaridae)
Iteman (Acanthuridae)
Source: ECOGOV 2006
8. Observations in Coral Cover and
Fish Abundance in Dinalungan
Percentage Cover
60
50
40 Hard Coral
30 Soft Coral
20 Dead Coral
10 Algal Cover
0
Aug-03
Year 2003 Sep-04
Year 2004 May-06
Year 2006
What may have caused these changes?
Mean Total Fish Biomass Mean Fish Density
25 8
Metric tons/ km2
20 Individuals/m2 6
15
4
10
5 2
0 0
Aug-03 Sep-04 May-06 Aug-03 Sep-04 May-06
Year 2003 Year 2004 Year 2006 Year 2003 Year 2004 Year 2006
Source: ECOGOV 2006
9. Sea Surface Temperature Changes
Area-averaged (121.33E～122.26E, 15.53N～16.4N) Sea Surface Temperature (SST), 1997 to 2006
32
31
30
29
28
℃
27
26
25
24
23
jul
jul
jul
jul
jul
jul
jul
jul
jul
jul
jan
apr
jan
apr
jan
apr
jan
apr
jan
apr
jan
apr
jan
apr
jan
apr
jan
apr
jan
apr
oct
oct
oct
oct
oct
oct
oct
oct
oct
oct
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
32
31 1997
1998
30
1999
29
2000
28
2001
27
2002
26 2003
25 2004
24 2005
23 2006
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: NOAA OI 2002-2006
10. Typhoon Occurrences
Typhoon Occurrence Per Month
10
8 2002
2003
6
2004
4 4
3 2005
2 2.4 2
1.6 1.8 2006
1 0.8 1.2 1.2
0 0.4 0.2
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SW Monsoon- July to September
NE Monsoon- October to February
Typhoon Occurrence Per Year
30
25
SW
20 Monsoon
15 Calm
10 NE
Monsoon
5
0 Mean
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Sources: Typhoon 2000 and JAXA/EORC Tropical Cyclone Database
11. Typhoon Effects on SST
Typhoon Occurrence Per Season
14
12 NE
Monsoon
10
8 Calm
6
4 SW
Monsoon
2
0
Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Area-averaged (121.33E～122.26E, 15.53N
～16.4N) Sea Surface Temperature (SST),
2002 to 2006
31
30
29
℃
28
27
26
Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
12. Typhoon Effects on Topography
>30
18
7
0-1
• prone to storm surge and inundation • erosion and sediment discharges
from sea level rise cause siltation
• more predisposed to surface soil
erosion and landslides Siltation is one of the identified causes of
coral reef destruction (Yap and Gomez, 1985)
15. Dynamics in Fishing Related Activities
A B
C 120
Long line
Catch per kilograms per day
10C Gillnet
Beach seine
80
60 trawl gillnet
40 A. Gear Map
20 B. Seasonal Gear Diagram
0 C. Catch Trends of Gears
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
drop line/ long line Source: PCRA 2003
16. Quality of Life Indicators
Year
Item
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Total Fish Supply (mt) 236.00 208.54 181.09 153.63 126.18
Total Fish Use (mt) 236.00 208.54 181.09 153.63 126.18
Population 9533 9710 9888 10066 10213
Apparent Use in the Municipality (31%) 73.16 64.65 56.14 47.63 39.11
Apparent Use in Other Municipalities (69%) 162.84 143.90 124.95 106.01 87.06
Percentage Population Food Dependency (73%) 6959 7088 7218 7348 7455
Per Capita Consumption (kg) 10.51 9.12 7.78 6.48 5.25
Apparent Use as Food in the Municipality (73%) 53.41 47.19 40.98 34.77 28.55
Apparent Use as Livelihood in the Municipality (27%) 19.75 17.46 15.16 12.86 10.56
Apparent Use for Livelihood (Total) 182.59 161.35 140.11 118.87 97.62
Percentage Population Livelihood Dependency (51%) 4862 4952 5043 5134 5209
Average Number of Household (5 person) 972 990 1009 1027 1042
Annual Household Income (1Kilo = PhP 50.00) 9389.12 8145.56 6945.82 5788.52 4685.61
Fish supply data in 2002 was sourced from PCRA (2003)
Population Growth Rate of 1.89% (NSO, 2000)
Annual Per Capita Fish Consumption is 15.4 kg. in 2001 (Hermes, 2004; BAS, 2005)
1994 Poverty Threshold is Php8,885.00/ month (FSP, 1996)
17. Integrate Climate Change Adaptation Strategies
in local government’s CRM Planning Framework
National Planning and Legal Framework
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3
Issue identification and CRM plan preparation Action plan and
baseline assessment and adoption project implementation
a. Program a. Establish
preparation managementLocal legislation
b. InformationPhase 5
bodies
Information management,
initiation Coastal law
b. Define goals and
c. Information and outreachobjectives
education enforcement
Regulation
development c. Develop CRM
strategies and
Annual program
External plans Revenue
action Preparation and
revenue generation
sources budgeting
Phase 4
Monitoring and evaluation
Multisectoral and inter-LGU participation and resource sharing
In the Philippines, planning and management of coastal and fisheries resources
is a legitimate mandate of the local government (RA 7160, LGC of 1991)
18. Opportunities
Aurora Marine Research Institute (AMRI)
• Resource assessment • Policy and legislation
• Boundary delineation • Protection and
• Sustainable utilization enhancement
Photo Source: Soria; UPMSI 2009
19. Conclusions
• Fish is a major component of livelihood and food in the
Municipality of Dinalungan
• During precipitation, steep topography increases surface runoffs
and erosion
• Causes hazards for environment (e.g. corals- siltation) and
people (e.g. livelihood)
• Hydrographic condition is affected by seasons (i.e. monsoons,
typhoons).
• Affects sea surface temperatures
• Affects gear operations
• But how does it affects the fish? currents? flow of nutrients?
• Integration of climate change adaptation in the framework of
the localized implementation of Coastal Resource Management
