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Implementation and Management Support Office in Turkmenistan – INCEPTION REPORT
Implementation and Management Support Office
in Turkmenistan
EuropeAid/125521/C/SER/MULTI/Lot 1
Situation Analysis Reports
March/April 2008
This project is funded by A project implemented by ABG GmbH
the European Union
-16-
Situation Analysis Report-March 2008
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
March 2008 has been a month of noticeable dynamism in international relations for the
Turkmen authorities. President Berdymhukamedov visited Uzbekistan and Turkey. Important
foreign delegations visited Turkmenistan, notably the US and EU Special Representatives for
Central Asia, and the EBRD President. Energy, economic development and reforms as well
as human rights were the main issues covered by these international contacts.
On the domestic front, the official statistics on the performance of the economy for the first
two months of 2008 were published. A state-funded 4 billion US$ equivalent rural
development programme for the regions was announced. Intentions to further expand the
exploration of hydrocarbons resources were revealed by the government. The government
amended certain provisions of the law on foreign investment, in the direction of
liberalization.
In early March, the Prosecutor General, Muhammetguly Ogshukov, was dismissed. General
Ogshukulov was, together with the Minister of Defence –the latter still in office- one of the
two last remaining members of the National Security Council which had helped President
Berdymukhammedov gain power in December 2006.
The findings of the last periodic reviews of the human rights situation by the US State
Department and Amnesty International, were published. These latest human rights reports
identify some minimal though encouraging developments which emerge from the otherwise
generally negative human rights situation.
Most notably, the positive signs in the human rights situation include a renewed government
commitment to legal reform with a view to complying with international agreements in the
sphere of human rights; the registration of two Christian evangelical groups; the pardoning of
22 prisoners whose cases are believed to be politically motivated; the incremental, though
still selective, removal of foreign and domestic travel restrictions for certain citizens; the
enhanced activism of the government commission on human rights (The National Institute
for Democracy and Human Rights) in addressing complaints of human rights violations.
2. INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
The US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Steven Mann paid his second visit to
Turkmenistan since the beginning of 2008, and met with the President and the state economy
and energy leaderships.
- 3 -
According to analysts (IWPR: 7 March; Vremya Novoste: 26 March), Ambassador Mann has
not succeeded in obtaining a firm commitment from President Berdymukhammedov on the
Trans Caspian Pipeline (TCP). There is, nevertheless, widespread acknowledgement of Steve
Mann successful mediations in both, the Turkmen-Azeri dispute over the Caspian seabed
delimitation and the US$ 44.8 million debt settling agreement, signed in Baku on 5 March by
Turkmen and Azeri government ministers.
The EU SG/HR Special Representative for Central Asia, Ambassador Pierre Morel, visited
Ashgabat on 6 March to participate in the OSCE Economic Forum on inland water
management. He also met with the Deputy Chairman for International Relations and Minister
of Foreign Affairs, Mr Meredov, the Deputy Chairman for Oil and Gas, Mr Tagyev, and the
Director of the Institute for Democracy and Human Rights, Ms Akhmedova. Subjects
addressed in the bilateral meetings included the signature of the MoU on energy, visit of the
EU troika, opening of the Europa House office, strengthening of institutions in the sphere of
human rights.
In March, President Berdymukhammedov paid his first ever official visit to Uzbekistan. The
visit was an important event in the process of rapidly unfreezing relationships between the
two countries. However, well-informed analysts (Vremya Novostei: 12 March) stress that the
one purpose on both sides was the negotiation of an agreement for the joint export of
Turkmen and Uzbek natural gas to Europe, through pre-Caspian pipelines, as well as co-
ordination of a common gas exports pricing policy.
The presidential visit to Uzbekistan was followed by Gazprom announcement of a readiness
to almost double the purchasing prices for Central Asian gas as from 2009, in line with a
projected rise of the sale price to Europe in that year to US$ 400. For Turkmenistan, who
currently sells gas to Russia at about US$ 150 per 1000 cubic metres, the sale price to
Gazprom would increase to approximately US$ 300 in 2009. It is widely perceived, that this
latest development would make the TCP less attractive to Turkmenistan.
There had been some hopes that the details of the “great gas game” would probably become
clearer during the visit of Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov to Turkey on March 24-28.
However, none of the reports on the visit’s outcome, published in Turkmen official media
(Neutralniy Turkmenistan: 25 March) nor any official communiqué, signed by the two
presidents, contained references to the TCP.
The two-day visit of the President of Turkmenistan to Turkey has brought disappointment for
those expected to hear from him a firm commitment to participate in the planned TCP.
President Berdymukhammedov simply expressed a general desire to broaden and deepen
bilateral ties with Turkey. Turkish President Abdullah Gul described discussions with
Berdymukhammedov as "productive," adding that they will "light the way" for the
strengthening of economic contacts. In a joint statement, the two stressed that Turkey and
Turkmenistan would focus on developing energy cooperation (Eurasia.net: 25 March).
- 4 -
However at the summit in Turkey, Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov did give the United
States and the European Union some reasons to believe that he wants closer economic and
political relations. (Journal Turkish Weekly: 24 March).
During March, President Berdymukhammedov also met in Ashgabat with an EBRD
Delegation headed by EBRD President Jean Lemierre.
In his interview to Reuters, quoted in full by a Turkmen opposition site (Gundogar: 15
March) the EBRD’s President acknowledged that the Bank “witnesses the signals of the
changes” though potential opportunities for co-operation are only limited so far to banking
and private sector development. EBRD is ready to reconsider its strategy in respect to
Turkmenistan, should the authorities fulfil their promises on other reforms and improve the
human rights situation.
3. SOCIAL ECONOMIC SITUATION
3.1 Economic developments
At the beginning of March Turkmen authorities announced indicators of Turkmenistan’s
economic development for the period January- February 2008 (Neutralniy Turkmenistan: 4
March). As was said at the Cabinet of Ministers’ meeting chaired by President
Berdymukhammedov, Turkmenistan produced goods worth Manat 26.9 trillion in two
months, up 20.1% year-on-year. The high rates of economic development have been
achieved in industrial sector (27%), agriculture (11.3%), construction (17%), transport and
communication (15.2%) and trade (23.2%). The overall GDP totalled Manat 8.5 trillion in
January.
While reporting to the meeting, Minister of Finance Hojamyrat Geldymyradov said the state
budget had been fulfilled in the period under review. The state budget revenues grew by
26.3% to Manat 4,842.3 billion, while expenditures rose by 8.7% to Manat 2,297.6 billion
year-on-year. According to official statistics wages, pensions, welfare payments and salaries
were paid in full without arrears. At the same time, pension and welfare payments spending
increased by 63%.
The President of Turkmenistan expressed his general satisfaction with indicators of economic
development, however mentioned that the country’s oil and gas industry was falling back and
ordered to improve the shortcomings.
Speaking on March 14 at the meeting with oil and gas Turkmen ministers, Gurbanguly
Berdymukhamedov announced that an audit of hydrocarbon reserves will be conducted in
South Yolotan-Osman (south-eastern Turkmenistan) by the British firm Gaffney, Cline &
Associates Ltd. In 2004 this company had already conducted the audit of gas deposits in
central and eastern Turkmenistan, though the results of the survey were never disclosed to
the public.
3.2 Velayats’ (regions) developments
- 5 -
The velayat of Balkan, in western Turkmenistan, will top all country’s five regions in terms
of capital to be invested by central Government in the nearest future. In March President
Berdymukhamedov authorized a $29.3 mln deal with Iranian Pars Energy. The company will
extend a terminal for LNG loading in Kiyanly sea port on the Caspian coast and stretch up a
railway from Kiyanly to the city of Turkmenbashi (Neutralniy Turkmenistan: 6 March).
Starting April 2008, Turkish Polimeks will design and then erect a cement plant in the village
of Jebel in Balkan velayat. As stated in the presidential decree, the (€ 180 mln) plant will be
operational as from 2011 with an annual production output at 1mln tons.
As for other velayats President Berdymukhamedov has pledged a total of US $4 billion to
transform Turkmen villages across the country into towns and improve their infrastructure.
He has issued a decree last month to grant urban status to the villages of Tedjen, Serdar,
Koneurgench, Anau, Baharly, and Gazachak, with populations ranging from 8,000 to 32,000.
Nonetheless, Turkmen villagers are sceptical about the program’s outcome, said the Institute
for War and Peace Reporting (IWPR: 28 February). Its staff interviewed a number of
villagers in Ahal velayat (central and southern Turkmenistan) and found that Turkmens
outside the capital of Ashgabat still live in primitive conditions, and have little faith in the
announced results of the president's efforts to improve what IWPR called the "dire state" and
“atrocious” health standards of Turkmenistan's small towns.
IWPR findings were complemented by Doctors Without Borders (Medicines sans frontieres,
MSF) working to treat tuberculosis in rural areas of Turkmenistan. MSF representatives
have been quoted by IWPR as saying from Kuneurgench town in Dashoguz velayat (northern
Turkmenistan) that MSF was shocked by the "horrifying sanitary conditions" in a community
without clean water or a working sewage system. “We never expected such desolation,
abandonment, underdevelopment and poverty,"-said MSF representative, according to
IWPR.
4. LEGAL FRAMEWORK, STAFFING AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION
STRUCTURE
4.1 Legal framework
The new Law on Foreign Investment, was signed by President Berdymukhammedov and
published by local media (Neutralniy Turkmenistan: 18 March). The law streamlines multi-
entry visa procedures for foreign investors and also waives certain taxes and fees for foreign
investment projects.
Coincidentally, the day the Law on Foreign Investment was published, the official web site
of American Embassy in Ashgabat posted a 2008 Report on Investment Climate in
Turkmenistan, prepared by the US State Department. . The report states that Turkmenistan
“has a closed investment climate. Decisions to allow foreign investment are politically
driven; companies from “friendly” countries are more successful in winning tenders and
signing contracts. Lack of established rule of law, inconsistent regulatory practices, and
- 6 -
unfamiliarity with international business norms are major disincentives to foreign
investment” (Official web-site of the US Embassy in Turkmenistan: 11 March).
4.2 Staffing
The Prosecutor General of Turkmenistan was suddenly dismissed because, according to
official media, of the ''dirty deeds, slaternliness and pursuit of self-interest'' of his staff (News
Central Asia: 4 March).
President Berdymukhammedov said during an expanded meeting of the National Security
Council on March 3 that Prosecutor General Muhammetguly Ogshukov had failed to meet
the demands of his job. He recommended to the Parliament that the Prosecutor General is to
be removed from his job. The same day, in a session of the Parliament a resolution was
passed with unanimous vote to replace the Prosecutor General.
The Chief Judge of Turkmenistan, Chary Khojamuradov, was appointed Prosecutor General.
Yaranmurat Yazmuradov, the Chief Judge of Ahal province was promoted to the post of
Head of the Supreme Court of Turkmenistan.
Ogshukov’s dismissal was no surprise to analysts and his removal had been expected. . He is
the latest dismissed high official among those who helped install Berdymukhammedov – a
perceived ‘underdog’ – as president-elect when the late Saparmurat Niyazov died in
December 2006- said IWPR (Institute for War and Peace Reporting: 9 March).
Among other major staff changes was the appointment of Mammet Bairamgulyev as hyakim
(Mayor) of Dashoguz town in Dashoguz velayat (region).
5. HUMAN RIGHTS
On March 11, the US State Department released the 2007 annual report on human rights
situation in Turkmenistan (Official web-site of US Embassy in Turkmenistan, March 11).
The report stated that in spite of the fact that there were modest improvements (please, refer
to Part 1. Introduction), the government still continued to commit serious abuses, and its
human rights record remained poor.
Amnesty International (AI), the global human rights organization, released its latest six-
month world report with a section on Turkmenistan (Amnesty International, March 4).
Having also noticed some improvements in human rights situation in Turkmenistan, AI
reported its obvious insufficiency and named those who remain imprisoned on political basis.
AI Report also contains information on the so called “black list” of people who are
prohibited by the authorities to leave the country and which continues to be replenished with
new names. Prisoners who are jailed for their religious faith are also mentioned in the report..
- 7 -
The Paris-based media rights monitor Reporters Without Borders (Reporters sans Frontieres,
March 12) launched its first "Online Free Expression Day". It included Turkmenistan among
nine other countries whom the organization identies as "Enemies of Internet" obstructing the
Internet and restricting internet authors. Responding to what it characterized as a "growing
tendency to crack down on bloggers and to close websites," RSF created an online petition
for each of the countries concerned, and gathered 1,462 signatures for Turkmenistan by
March 13.
________________________________
List of bibliographic references:
www.amnesty.org Full name: Amnesty International; Original title: Europe and Central
Asia: Summary of Amnesty International's Concerns in the Region: July-December
2007:Turkmenistan/04/0308
www.gundogar.org Full name: Gundogar; Original title: EBRD Urges Turkmenistan to
Commence Promised Reforms/15/03/08
HTTP://WWW.IWPR.NET FULL NAME: INSTITUTE FOR WAR AND PEASE
REPORTING; ORIGINAL TITLE: TURKMEN VILLAGERS SCEPTICAL OF
GOVERNMENT’S RENOVATION PLANS/28/02/08; ORIGINAL TITLE: USA
ASSISTS TURKMENISTAN AND AZERBAIJAN TO GET CLOSER/07/03/08;
ORIGINAL TITLE: TURKMEN CHIEF SACKS FORMER ALLY/09/03/08
www.newscentralasia.net Full name: News Central Asia; Original title: Prosecutor
General of Turkmenistan Fired /04/03/08
http://www.rsf.org Full name: Reporters Without Borders; Original title: First Online
Free Expression Day Launched by Reporters Without Borders/12/03/08
http://www.turkishweekly.net Full name: Turkish Weekly Journal; Original title:
Turkmen president visits to crown deepening ties /24/03/08
www.turkmenistan.gov.tm Full name: Official Turkmen government website/State
Information Agency of Turkmenistan/Neutralniy Turkmenistan Original title: Law of
Turkmenistan on foreign investments/18/03/08; Original title: Cooperation in Sake of
Peace and Prosperity/25/03/08
http://turkmenistan.usembassy.gov Full name: US Embassy in Turkmenistan; Original title:
Country Report On Human Rights Practices-2007/11/03/08; Original title: 2008
Investment Climate Statement-Turkmenistan/18/03/08
- 8 -
www.vremya.ru Full name: Vremya Novostei; Original title: Middle Asian Front/12/03/08
Original title: Ashgabat without Guaranty/26/03/08
- 9 -
Situation Analysis Report -April
1. Executive Summary
During the month of April, the Turkmen leadership was actively involved in international
events.
The participation of President Berdymukhammedov to the NATO summit in Bucharest and
his bilateral meeting with President Bush were highly publicized in the official media. The
EU Troika meetings in Ashgabat also received much space in the local press. The energy
conference in London has seen the participation of all the energy ministers from
Turkmenistan.
In the sphere of monetary policy, a unified exchange for the US$ was achieved at the rate of
14, 250 Manats. This triggered a visible acceleration of the inflation rate, notably for
imported goods.
The President made a series of new appointments in the economic leadership of the Country.
Most notably, a new Chairman of the National Bank was appointed. The Minister of Finance
and National Co-ordinator, Mr Geldymuradov, was promoted to the position of Deputy
Chairman for the Economic Sector. Mr Gotchiev was appointed to the position of Minister of
Finance and National Co-ordinator, replacing Mr Geldymuradov.
The human rights situation remained in the spotlight of prominent human rights
organizations. On the eve of the EC Troika visit to Ashgabat, Human Rights Watch issued a
press release signaling the continuation of arbitrary arrests of Turkmen citizens over political
and other motivations.
Finally, both official press and television channels dedicated large space to the official
opening ceremony of the “Europa House” held in Ashgabat on 10 April.
2. INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
President Berdymukhammedov defined his participation to the NATO summit in Bucharest
as “a distinctively new sign of Turkmenistan’s authority and recognition” (Neutralny
Turkmenistan, April 4). His meeting with George W. Bush in the summit’s lobby received
high attention from the official media “it was the only bilateral meeting in the course of the
NATO summit which the US President allocated his time for” (Neutralny Trukmenistan: 4
April).
In his short speech in Bucharest, President Berdymukhammedov expressed his support for
the idea of building a trans-Afghanistan gas pipeline. It is worth noting, that this project was
first ventilated in the mid-90s, but never referred to again by the Turkmen leadership before
the Bucharest Summit.
- 10 -
During his bilateral talks with the EC Commissioner for External Relations and
Neighbourhood Policy, Benita Ferrero-Waldner, the President of Turkmenistan referred to
the EU as “ a strategic partner” (Neutralny Trukmenistan: 4 April), but significantly eluded
to make reference to the Trans-Caspian Pipeline (TCP) as well as to other projects aimed at
bringing Turkmen gas to the world markets bypassing Russia. Instead, he resorted to the
well known rhetoric on multi-vector policy of gas supplies.
In contrast, during her interview to the Financial Times, Commissioner Ferrero-Waldner
declared that the President: ". . . gave us assurances that 10bcm will be set aside for Europe in
addition to possibilities in new fields to be tendered. It was not a "vast quantity", she said, but
"a very important first step" (Financial Times: 14 April). In her interview, Mrs Ferrero-
Waldner added that “ the Turkmen offer, which would run from next year, required European
business to invest in pipeline infrastructure and exploration” (Financial Times: 14 April).
Furthermore, elaborating on the possible transit routes for the 10bcm, the EC Commissioner
mentioned three short-term options which were discussed with the President: “to close a
60km gap between Azeri and Turkmen offshore installations with a mini-pipeline; to build an
onshore link to Kazakhstan to connect with a route to Azerbaijan; to compress the gas into
liquid form and take it by tanker across the sea" (Financial Times: 14 April).
However, some Azerbaijani experts consider that bringing those options into reality could be
hindered by the low capacity of Azeri offshore installations, obviously insufficient for
pumping 10 bcm of Turkmen gas through; by the absence of tankers fleet in the Caspian Sea
and by the limited facilities for storage and transportation of Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) to
the Black Sea shores of Georgia or to Turkey (TrendCapital: 15 April).
An international conference titled “Oil and gas in Turkmenistan 2008” took place in London
during April, with the participation of the energy leadership of Turkmenstan, energy policy-
makers from Europe and multinational corporations. At the conference, Turkmen
government officials tried to reassure the international community and potential investors
that Turkmenistan is in a position to meet all its gas export commitments, though industry
experts argue that “virtually all current export production, of 50bcm, is covered by contracts
running to 2028” (Financial Times: 14 April). Moreover, official government statements
released end April indicate that production of LNG, natural gas, and polypropylene decreased
in the last two consecutive months-i.e. March and April (Vzglyad: 17 April). Speaking at the
Conference, the energy leadership of Turkmenistan also voiced their opposition to onshore
foreign investment in oil and gas.
On a different note, the EUSR Special Representative for Central Asia, Pierre Morel, stated
that the European Union is ready to sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with
- 11 -
Turkmenistan. The MoU would outline a framework for energy cooperation, including
exchange of information, energy security, efficiency and technology (Guardian: 17 April).
Much space was dedicated in the official media to the opening ceremony of the “Europa
House” in Ashgabat, with the participation of the European Commissioner for External
Relations and Neighbourhood Policy, Mrs Ferrero-Waldner; the Minister of Foreign Affairs
of Turkmenistan, Mr Meredov; and the EUSR Special Representative for Central Asia, Mr
Morel. All media highlighted the personal involvement and interest of President
Berdymukhammedov, who signed a special resolution to allocate appropriate premises to the
new project, and underlined the strong support of the Turkmen government for the activity of
the “Europa House”.
On 30 April, the UN Secretary General appointed the first Director of the UN Centre for
Preventive Diplomacy in Central Asia, Mr Miroslav Yencu, a former Slovak diplomat. The
Centre is located in Ashgabat and 2.3 million US$ have been earmarked for its operations
(Neutralny Turkmenistan: 1 May).
3. SOCIAL ECONOMIC SITUATION
3.1 Economic developments
During April, monetary policy has been the focus of government action in the economic
sphere.
At the Cabinet of Ministers meeting of 14 April, President Berdymukhammedov criticized
the work of the Minister of Finance, Mr Geldymuradov, and appointed Mr Gotchiev to the
position of Minister of Finance. In spite of the criticism, Mr Geldymuradov was promoted to
the position of Deputy Chairman with overall responsibility for the economic sector. During
the same meeting, the Chairman of the National Bank was also dismissed.
The backdrop of these changes in government, is the President televised address to the nation
of 13 April in which he declared the intention of appreciating the value of the local currency
(Manat) against the US$ and other traded foreign currencies-i.e. ruble and Euro-starting from
1 May 2008 (Gundogar: 16 April). Following the televised address, official comments in the
press declared that “appreciating the national currency will serve to increase the outbound
business activities of national enterprises and entrepreneurs”. (Neutralny Turkmenistan: 16
April).
The immediate effect of the Presidential announcement has been panic among the population
with long queues of citizens forming before bank buildings in Ashgabat and the regions
- 12 -
throughout the second half of April, with the intent of selling US$ for local currency in the
expectation of a significant depreciation of the US$.
In response to the situation, state banks stopped buying US$. As a result, a parallel foreign
currency ‘black market’ emerged immediately, where US$ could be exchanged for Manats at
a much depreciated rate. Food prices also jumped by about 10% during the second half of
April and prices of many other imported items increased significantly. On 30 April a
Presidential Decree fixed a unified exchanged rate for the US$ at 14,250 manats, in between
the two previous official exchange rates of 6,200 Manats (banking rate) and 19,800 Manats
(commercial rate, used by the population). (Neutralny Turkmenistan: 1 May).
3.2 Developments in velayats (regions)
President Berdymukhammedov announced the approval of a Concept for the Social-
Economic Development of the Balkan Velayat (in western Turkmenistan) till 2012
(Neutralny Turkmenistan: 15 April), but it is not clear whether the Concept will be followed
by the development of a full-fledged strategy and whether the funding for its implementation
will be part of the US$ 4 billion programme for the development of the regions (see March
report).
The President also expressed dissatisfaction with the pace of implementation of the
programme for the development of the regions. In most cases works did not proceed beyond
the stage of feasibility study. In practical terms it means that the announced cosntruction of
inland highways, the stretching of high voltage power lines, the construction of running
water and sewage infrastrcuture, civil engineering in remote areas of Turkmenistan have not
yet started (Neutralny Turkmenistan, April 15).
.
.
- 13 -
4. LEGAL FRAMEWORK, STAFFING AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION
STRUCTURE
4.1 Legal framework
Apart from the Decree on the Exchange Rate (see above Section 3.1, par. 3), April’s primary
addition to the legal framework of Turkmenistan has been a decree on the denomination of
the national currency of Turkmenistan. According to the latter decree, as from 1 January
2009, new banknotes will be introduced at the ratio of 1:1000 of the Manats notes currently
in circulation.
4.2 Staffing
The most noticeable move in staffing policy of Turkmenistan President in April has been the
dismissal of Mr Abilov, Central Bank of Turkmenistan (CBT) Chairman for “serious
shortcomings in his work and failure to carry out the assumed responsibilities” (Neutralny
Turkmenistan: 15 April).
The dismissal turned to be unexpected to many, since the President never lashed out on him
over recent months. Nevertheless bankers started informally telling about that possibility
half-a-year ago and even rumored the name of a successor. As widely expected, Mr.
Geoklenov, former ‘Vnesheconombank’ Chairman, was appointed as new Central Bank
Chairman. He is widely perceived as well-experienced. Equally important, he seems to have
a strong advantage. As the majority of other members of Berdymukhammedov’s Cabinet
team, the new CBT Chairman was born in the same district of the President.
Also from the same district of the President is the former Minister of Finance Geldymyradov,
who was promoted in April to the position of Deputy Chairman in charge of the Economic
Sector. In accordance with the President’s decision, his former deputy, Mr A. Gotchiev has
become the new Minister of Finance of Turkmenistan as well as the new National Co-
ordinator of EC technical assistance to Turkmenistan.
4.3 Public administration structure
Due to President’s Resolution, the Ministry of Construction and Production of Construction
Materials has been split into two separate organizations: Ministry of Construction and
Ministry of Production of Construction Materials respectively (Neutralny Turkmenistan: 15
April).
Moreover, the President renamed the State Service on Registration of Foreigners into State
Service on Migration of Turkmenistan (Neutralny Turkmenstan: 15 April).
- 14 -
5. HUMAN RIGHTS
In April Turkmenistan continued to stay in the spotlight of international human rights
organizations. From Amnesty International (AI) perspective “in spite of some individual
projects and initiatives of European politicians resulted in a number of concrete positive
outcomes, there has been massive violation of the rights of citizens in Central Asia. Dialogue
with Turkmenistan has moved from a dead point but it was clearly not enough yet.”
(Deutsche Welle: 8 April).
On the threshold of talks of the EU Troika in Ashgabat Human Rights Watch distributed a
press-release where it urged the EU not to overlook human rights issues in Turkmenistan by
limiting her dialogue with Ashgabat to energy resources and geopolitical issues. “In fact in
the sphere of human rights there are really no big changes in Turkmenistan. People still can
not express their opinions and there is no possibility to criticize authorities”. – stated Imke
Dirsen, staff member of AI in Germany (Deutsche Welle: 8 April).
List of bibliographic references:
www.hrw.org Full name: Human Rights Watch; Original title: EU: Urge Rights Reform in
Central Asia (EU and Central Asian Leaders to Discuss Strategy at Ashgabat Meeting)
/08/04/08
www.dw-world.de Full name:Deutsche Welle; Original title: Amnesty International
Criticizes EC policy in Central Asia/08/04/08
www.gundogar.org Full name:Gundogar; Original title: Starting May 1, 2008 Rate of
Dollar Will Be Changed and Prices Will Rise /16/04/08
http://www.guardian.co.uk Full name: The Guardian; Original title: Suitors line up in
London to Court Turkmen Oil Wealth/17/04/08
www.ft.com Full name: Financial Times; Original title: Offer helps EU ease reliance on
Russian gas/14/04/08
www.ca-oasis.info Full name: Oasis; Original title: Get Jailed Again? /issue #7/04/08/
http://news.trendaz.com Full name: News Trend Agency; Original title: Azerbaijan is Only
Route for Independent Supply of Turkmen Gas to Europe /15/04/08
www.turkmenistan.gov.tm Full name: Official Turkmen government website/State
Information Agency of Turkmenistan/Neutralniy Turkmenistan Original title: Targets
On Implementation of Progressive Reforms Are Set /15/04/08; Decree on Denomination
of National Currency of Turkmenistan /15/04/08; Denomination of Manat-Important
Step Towards Market Economy and Integration into Global Economy System /16/04/08
- 15 -
www.vz.ru Full name:Vzglyad; Original title:Turkmenia Banns Foreigners to Extract Oil
and Gas Onshore /17/04/08
-16-
ASSESSMENT OF INFORMATION SOURCES
Level Web
Address
Host Institution Critical Assessment Relevance
(1-5)
Reliability
(1-5)
Independence
(1-5)
Official
http://turkmenis
tan.gov.tm
State Information
Agency (TDH)
Controlled by the Government of
Turkmenistan. Reflects only official
views on trends and events. Updated
on daily basis.
♦♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦ ♦
http://turkmenis
tan.ru
Embassy of
Turkmenistan in
Russia.
Controlled by the Government of
Turkmenistan. Provides timely and
broader than other official sources
coverage of events. Updated on daily
basis.
♦♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦ ♦
http://oilgas.gov
.tm
Ministry of oil &gas &
natural resources of
Turkmenistan.
Controlled by the Government of
Turkmenistan. Provides information
on developments in energy sector,
chemical industry and fishery.
Updated irregularly.
♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦ ♦
http://tfeb.gov.t
m
Turkmenistan Bank for
foreign economic
affairs.
Controlled by the Government of
Turkmenistan. Created for PR
purpose. Provides some information
on banking sector. Updated irregularly
♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦ ♦
http://natureprot
ection.gov.tm
Ministry for nature
protection of
Turkmenistan.
Controlled by the Government of
Turkmenistan. Created for PR
purpose. Provides some information
on environmental issues. Updated
irregularly
♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦ ♦
http://science.go
v.tm
Supreme Council for
Science & Technics
under president of
Turkmenistan.
Controlled by the Government of
Turkmenistan. Created for PR
purpose. Provides some information
on scientific and educational issues.
Updated irregularly
♦♦♦ ♦♦♦ ♦
www.gundogar. Opposition site created The most popular opposition site ♦♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦
- 17 -
Oppositi
onal
org by former
Turkmenistan vice
prime minister B.
Shikhmuradov (jailed).
Maintained now by his
family and supporters.
which takes a critical view on policies
of the government of Turkmenistan.
Publishes its own articles and places
Turkmenistan –related stories
collected from other information
sources. Updated on daily basis.
www.watan.ru Opposition site created
and run by former
Turkmenistan vice
prime minister and
Central Bank chairman
H.Orazov.
The second most popular opposition
site. Critical on policies of the
government of Turkmenistan.
Publishes articles of both its own staff
and outside media interested in
Turkmenistan. Updated on daily basis.
♦♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦
www.dogryyol.
com
Opposition site created
and run by former
Turkmenistan vice
prime minister N.
Soyunov.
The site takes sometimes critical
approach toward Turkmenistan
authorities; however its owners prefer
rather to re-publish someone’s
coverage of Turkmen events, than
express their own views. Updated
regularly
♦♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦
http://www.chro
no-tm.org
Opposition site created
and run by former
Turkmenistan Central
Bank Deputy Chairman
A.Khadjiev.
Named Turkmenistan Helsinki Group
this site closely monitors situation
with human rights in Turkmenistan. It
benefits from a good network of
informants in provincial areas of the
country. Updated regularly.
♦♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦
http://www.iwp
r.net
Institute for War and
Peace Reporting The
Takes a critical view on the policies
of Turkmenistan current authorities.
♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦
- 18 -
Inter-
national
Institute exists as an
international network
for media development,
with not for- profit
divisions in Europe, the
US and Africa
Provides broad coverage of social
problems. Has a number of insiders
working for IWPR in provincial areas
of Turkmenistan. Updated regularly.
http://www.caci
analyst
The Central Asian
Analyst, a magazine
established and run at
John Hopkins
University , USA
Regularly publishes analytical reports
and field surveys of its teachers and
students on Central Asian political
developments including those in
Turkmenistan
♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦
www.vremya.ru Vremya Novostei ,
independent Russian
daily newspaper based
in Moscow
The newspaper has prominent experts
on Central Asian affairs, specifically
on Turkmenistan, which provide
extensive and in-depth coverage of
country’s trends and events. Updated
on daily basis.
♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦
http://www.rferl
.org
Radio Free Europe-
Radio Liberty
Financially supported by US Congress
this radio station, unlike others, has a
special desk on Turkmenistan,
therefore provides news and analysis
on a daily basis. In recent past RFE-
RL has several correspondents
working inside Turkmenistan.
♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦
http://www.new
scentralasia.net
News Central Asia, a
private on-line news
agency
This media outlet primarily focuses on
Turkmenistan and based in Ashgabat.
Its establisher and owner, a Pakistani
journalist, is in favor of authorities and
often mirrors their views in his
coverage Updated on weekly basis.
♦♦♦♦ ♦♦ ♦♦
http://enews.fer
gana.ru
Private information
agency based in
Moscow, Russia
The agency keeps an eye on regional
developments in Central Asia,
provides news and comments on
♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦
- 19 -
Inter-
national
political, social and cultural life.
Updated on daily basis
www.registan.n
et
Blog that focused on
the former Soviet
Republics of Central
Asia and the Caucasus
The blog covers Eurasian politics and
news, seeking to draw more attention
to issues and news rarely covered in
much depth, if at all, by Western
media. Updated regularly.
♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦
http://www.cent
ralasianvoices.o
rg
The website is
supported by the
Carnegie Endowment
for International Peace,
Central Asian Voices is an interactive
multilingual website that features
timely analysis of political, economic,
social and security developments in
the five states of Central Asia.
Updated regularly.
♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦
http://news.tren
daz.com
Private information
agency based in Baku,
Azerbaijan.
Covers economic and political
developments in Caspian region.
Updated regularly.
♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦
http://turkmenis
tan.usembassy.g
ov
Official site of US
Embassy in
Turkmenistan
Reflects US official views of
Turkmenistan-related policies and
events. Updated regularly.
♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦
http://www.rsf.
org
Reporters sans
Frontieres, non-
governmental
organization based in
Paris, France
Established to protect rights of
journalists over the globe. Updated
regularly.
♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦
www.amnesty.o
rg
Amnesty International,
prominent human rights
watchdog.
Monitors satiation and reports on
violation of human rights across the
globe. Updated on daily basis.
♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦
- 20 -
Inter-
national
www.eurasianet
.org
EurasiaNet is operated
by the Central Eurasia
Project of the Open
Society Institute.
Provides information and analysis
about political, economic,
environmental and social
developments in the countries of
Central Asia and the Caucasus, as well
as in Russia, the Middle East, and
Southwest Asia. Updated regularly
♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦
www.timesca.c
om
The Times of Central
Asia. Weekly
newspaper based in
Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan.
Provides independent and informative
coverage of regional developments.
♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦
www.ft.com Financial Times Sometimes publishes news on central
Asia
♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦
http://www.turk
ishweekly.net
the Journal Turkish
Weekly published by
Ankara-based leading
Turkish think
tank International
Strategic Research
Organization
News source in English language
mainly on international politics,
Turkey, Middle East, Caucasus,
Eastern Europe, Black Sea Rim and
Central Asia.
♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦
www.dw-
world.de
Deutsche Welle radio
station based in
Germany
Often covers political and economic
developments in Central Asia,
specifically in Turkmenistan
♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦
http://www.guar
dian.co.uk
The Guardian. Daily
British newspaper
Sporadically publishes stories on
Central Asia -related issues
♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦
www.vz.ru Vzglyad- Russian web
business newspaper
Sometimes publishes news on Central
Asia-related issues
♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦
- 21 -
http://www.ca-
oasis.info
Independent web
magazine. Established
by Center for Extreme
Journalism with a
sponsorship of US
National Endowment
for Democracy.
Covers political and economic
developments in Central Asia.
Updated periodically
♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦
www.hrw.org Human Rights Watch.
Prominent human
rights watchdog based
in New York.
Regularly raises issues on situation in
Central Asia
♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦

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Situation_Analysis_Reports_EHT_April_May_2008

  • 1. Implementation and Management Support Office in Turkmenistan – INCEPTION REPORT Implementation and Management Support Office in Turkmenistan EuropeAid/125521/C/SER/MULTI/Lot 1 Situation Analysis Reports March/April 2008 This project is funded by A project implemented by ABG GmbH the European Union
  • 2. -16- Situation Analysis Report-March 2008 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY March 2008 has been a month of noticeable dynamism in international relations for the Turkmen authorities. President Berdymhukamedov visited Uzbekistan and Turkey. Important foreign delegations visited Turkmenistan, notably the US and EU Special Representatives for Central Asia, and the EBRD President. Energy, economic development and reforms as well as human rights were the main issues covered by these international contacts. On the domestic front, the official statistics on the performance of the economy for the first two months of 2008 were published. A state-funded 4 billion US$ equivalent rural development programme for the regions was announced. Intentions to further expand the exploration of hydrocarbons resources were revealed by the government. The government amended certain provisions of the law on foreign investment, in the direction of liberalization. In early March, the Prosecutor General, Muhammetguly Ogshukov, was dismissed. General Ogshukulov was, together with the Minister of Defence –the latter still in office- one of the two last remaining members of the National Security Council which had helped President Berdymukhammedov gain power in December 2006. The findings of the last periodic reviews of the human rights situation by the US State Department and Amnesty International, were published. These latest human rights reports identify some minimal though encouraging developments which emerge from the otherwise generally negative human rights situation. Most notably, the positive signs in the human rights situation include a renewed government commitment to legal reform with a view to complying with international agreements in the sphere of human rights; the registration of two Christian evangelical groups; the pardoning of 22 prisoners whose cases are believed to be politically motivated; the incremental, though still selective, removal of foreign and domestic travel restrictions for certain citizens; the enhanced activism of the government commission on human rights (The National Institute for Democracy and Human Rights) in addressing complaints of human rights violations. 2. INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS The US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Steven Mann paid his second visit to Turkmenistan since the beginning of 2008, and met with the President and the state economy and energy leaderships.
  • 3. - 3 - According to analysts (IWPR: 7 March; Vremya Novoste: 26 March), Ambassador Mann has not succeeded in obtaining a firm commitment from President Berdymukhammedov on the Trans Caspian Pipeline (TCP). There is, nevertheless, widespread acknowledgement of Steve Mann successful mediations in both, the Turkmen-Azeri dispute over the Caspian seabed delimitation and the US$ 44.8 million debt settling agreement, signed in Baku on 5 March by Turkmen and Azeri government ministers. The EU SG/HR Special Representative for Central Asia, Ambassador Pierre Morel, visited Ashgabat on 6 March to participate in the OSCE Economic Forum on inland water management. He also met with the Deputy Chairman for International Relations and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mr Meredov, the Deputy Chairman for Oil and Gas, Mr Tagyev, and the Director of the Institute for Democracy and Human Rights, Ms Akhmedova. Subjects addressed in the bilateral meetings included the signature of the MoU on energy, visit of the EU troika, opening of the Europa House office, strengthening of institutions in the sphere of human rights. In March, President Berdymukhammedov paid his first ever official visit to Uzbekistan. The visit was an important event in the process of rapidly unfreezing relationships between the two countries. However, well-informed analysts (Vremya Novostei: 12 March) stress that the one purpose on both sides was the negotiation of an agreement for the joint export of Turkmen and Uzbek natural gas to Europe, through pre-Caspian pipelines, as well as co- ordination of a common gas exports pricing policy. The presidential visit to Uzbekistan was followed by Gazprom announcement of a readiness to almost double the purchasing prices for Central Asian gas as from 2009, in line with a projected rise of the sale price to Europe in that year to US$ 400. For Turkmenistan, who currently sells gas to Russia at about US$ 150 per 1000 cubic metres, the sale price to Gazprom would increase to approximately US$ 300 in 2009. It is widely perceived, that this latest development would make the TCP less attractive to Turkmenistan. There had been some hopes that the details of the “great gas game” would probably become clearer during the visit of Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov to Turkey on March 24-28. However, none of the reports on the visit’s outcome, published in Turkmen official media (Neutralniy Turkmenistan: 25 March) nor any official communiqué, signed by the two presidents, contained references to the TCP. The two-day visit of the President of Turkmenistan to Turkey has brought disappointment for those expected to hear from him a firm commitment to participate in the planned TCP. President Berdymukhammedov simply expressed a general desire to broaden and deepen bilateral ties with Turkey. Turkish President Abdullah Gul described discussions with Berdymukhammedov as "productive," adding that they will "light the way" for the strengthening of economic contacts. In a joint statement, the two stressed that Turkey and Turkmenistan would focus on developing energy cooperation (Eurasia.net: 25 March).
  • 4. - 4 - However at the summit in Turkey, Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov did give the United States and the European Union some reasons to believe that he wants closer economic and political relations. (Journal Turkish Weekly: 24 March). During March, President Berdymukhammedov also met in Ashgabat with an EBRD Delegation headed by EBRD President Jean Lemierre. In his interview to Reuters, quoted in full by a Turkmen opposition site (Gundogar: 15 March) the EBRD’s President acknowledged that the Bank “witnesses the signals of the changes” though potential opportunities for co-operation are only limited so far to banking and private sector development. EBRD is ready to reconsider its strategy in respect to Turkmenistan, should the authorities fulfil their promises on other reforms and improve the human rights situation. 3. SOCIAL ECONOMIC SITUATION 3.1 Economic developments At the beginning of March Turkmen authorities announced indicators of Turkmenistan’s economic development for the period January- February 2008 (Neutralniy Turkmenistan: 4 March). As was said at the Cabinet of Ministers’ meeting chaired by President Berdymukhammedov, Turkmenistan produced goods worth Manat 26.9 trillion in two months, up 20.1% year-on-year. The high rates of economic development have been achieved in industrial sector (27%), agriculture (11.3%), construction (17%), transport and communication (15.2%) and trade (23.2%). The overall GDP totalled Manat 8.5 trillion in January. While reporting to the meeting, Minister of Finance Hojamyrat Geldymyradov said the state budget had been fulfilled in the period under review. The state budget revenues grew by 26.3% to Manat 4,842.3 billion, while expenditures rose by 8.7% to Manat 2,297.6 billion year-on-year. According to official statistics wages, pensions, welfare payments and salaries were paid in full without arrears. At the same time, pension and welfare payments spending increased by 63%. The President of Turkmenistan expressed his general satisfaction with indicators of economic development, however mentioned that the country’s oil and gas industry was falling back and ordered to improve the shortcomings. Speaking on March 14 at the meeting with oil and gas Turkmen ministers, Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov announced that an audit of hydrocarbon reserves will be conducted in South Yolotan-Osman (south-eastern Turkmenistan) by the British firm Gaffney, Cline & Associates Ltd. In 2004 this company had already conducted the audit of gas deposits in central and eastern Turkmenistan, though the results of the survey were never disclosed to the public. 3.2 Velayats’ (regions) developments
  • 5. - 5 - The velayat of Balkan, in western Turkmenistan, will top all country’s five regions in terms of capital to be invested by central Government in the nearest future. In March President Berdymukhamedov authorized a $29.3 mln deal with Iranian Pars Energy. The company will extend a terminal for LNG loading in Kiyanly sea port on the Caspian coast and stretch up a railway from Kiyanly to the city of Turkmenbashi (Neutralniy Turkmenistan: 6 March). Starting April 2008, Turkish Polimeks will design and then erect a cement plant in the village of Jebel in Balkan velayat. As stated in the presidential decree, the (€ 180 mln) plant will be operational as from 2011 with an annual production output at 1mln tons. As for other velayats President Berdymukhamedov has pledged a total of US $4 billion to transform Turkmen villages across the country into towns and improve their infrastructure. He has issued a decree last month to grant urban status to the villages of Tedjen, Serdar, Koneurgench, Anau, Baharly, and Gazachak, with populations ranging from 8,000 to 32,000. Nonetheless, Turkmen villagers are sceptical about the program’s outcome, said the Institute for War and Peace Reporting (IWPR: 28 February). Its staff interviewed a number of villagers in Ahal velayat (central and southern Turkmenistan) and found that Turkmens outside the capital of Ashgabat still live in primitive conditions, and have little faith in the announced results of the president's efforts to improve what IWPR called the "dire state" and “atrocious” health standards of Turkmenistan's small towns. IWPR findings were complemented by Doctors Without Borders (Medicines sans frontieres, MSF) working to treat tuberculosis in rural areas of Turkmenistan. MSF representatives have been quoted by IWPR as saying from Kuneurgench town in Dashoguz velayat (northern Turkmenistan) that MSF was shocked by the "horrifying sanitary conditions" in a community without clean water or a working sewage system. “We never expected such desolation, abandonment, underdevelopment and poverty,"-said MSF representative, according to IWPR. 4. LEGAL FRAMEWORK, STAFFING AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION STRUCTURE 4.1 Legal framework The new Law on Foreign Investment, was signed by President Berdymukhammedov and published by local media (Neutralniy Turkmenistan: 18 March). The law streamlines multi- entry visa procedures for foreign investors and also waives certain taxes and fees for foreign investment projects. Coincidentally, the day the Law on Foreign Investment was published, the official web site of American Embassy in Ashgabat posted a 2008 Report on Investment Climate in Turkmenistan, prepared by the US State Department. . The report states that Turkmenistan “has a closed investment climate. Decisions to allow foreign investment are politically driven; companies from “friendly” countries are more successful in winning tenders and signing contracts. Lack of established rule of law, inconsistent regulatory practices, and
  • 6. - 6 - unfamiliarity with international business norms are major disincentives to foreign investment” (Official web-site of the US Embassy in Turkmenistan: 11 March). 4.2 Staffing The Prosecutor General of Turkmenistan was suddenly dismissed because, according to official media, of the ''dirty deeds, slaternliness and pursuit of self-interest'' of his staff (News Central Asia: 4 March). President Berdymukhammedov said during an expanded meeting of the National Security Council on March 3 that Prosecutor General Muhammetguly Ogshukov had failed to meet the demands of his job. He recommended to the Parliament that the Prosecutor General is to be removed from his job. The same day, in a session of the Parliament a resolution was passed with unanimous vote to replace the Prosecutor General. The Chief Judge of Turkmenistan, Chary Khojamuradov, was appointed Prosecutor General. Yaranmurat Yazmuradov, the Chief Judge of Ahal province was promoted to the post of Head of the Supreme Court of Turkmenistan. Ogshukov’s dismissal was no surprise to analysts and his removal had been expected. . He is the latest dismissed high official among those who helped install Berdymukhammedov – a perceived ‘underdog’ – as president-elect when the late Saparmurat Niyazov died in December 2006- said IWPR (Institute for War and Peace Reporting: 9 March). Among other major staff changes was the appointment of Mammet Bairamgulyev as hyakim (Mayor) of Dashoguz town in Dashoguz velayat (region). 5. HUMAN RIGHTS On March 11, the US State Department released the 2007 annual report on human rights situation in Turkmenistan (Official web-site of US Embassy in Turkmenistan, March 11). The report stated that in spite of the fact that there were modest improvements (please, refer to Part 1. Introduction), the government still continued to commit serious abuses, and its human rights record remained poor. Amnesty International (AI), the global human rights organization, released its latest six- month world report with a section on Turkmenistan (Amnesty International, March 4). Having also noticed some improvements in human rights situation in Turkmenistan, AI reported its obvious insufficiency and named those who remain imprisoned on political basis. AI Report also contains information on the so called “black list” of people who are prohibited by the authorities to leave the country and which continues to be replenished with new names. Prisoners who are jailed for their religious faith are also mentioned in the report..
  • 7. - 7 - The Paris-based media rights monitor Reporters Without Borders (Reporters sans Frontieres, March 12) launched its first "Online Free Expression Day". It included Turkmenistan among nine other countries whom the organization identies as "Enemies of Internet" obstructing the Internet and restricting internet authors. Responding to what it characterized as a "growing tendency to crack down on bloggers and to close websites," RSF created an online petition for each of the countries concerned, and gathered 1,462 signatures for Turkmenistan by March 13. ________________________________ List of bibliographic references: www.amnesty.org Full name: Amnesty International; Original title: Europe and Central Asia: Summary of Amnesty International's Concerns in the Region: July-December 2007:Turkmenistan/04/0308 www.gundogar.org Full name: Gundogar; Original title: EBRD Urges Turkmenistan to Commence Promised Reforms/15/03/08 HTTP://WWW.IWPR.NET FULL NAME: INSTITUTE FOR WAR AND PEASE REPORTING; ORIGINAL TITLE: TURKMEN VILLAGERS SCEPTICAL OF GOVERNMENT’S RENOVATION PLANS/28/02/08; ORIGINAL TITLE: USA ASSISTS TURKMENISTAN AND AZERBAIJAN TO GET CLOSER/07/03/08; ORIGINAL TITLE: TURKMEN CHIEF SACKS FORMER ALLY/09/03/08 www.newscentralasia.net Full name: News Central Asia; Original title: Prosecutor General of Turkmenistan Fired /04/03/08 http://www.rsf.org Full name: Reporters Without Borders; Original title: First Online Free Expression Day Launched by Reporters Without Borders/12/03/08 http://www.turkishweekly.net Full name: Turkish Weekly Journal; Original title: Turkmen president visits to crown deepening ties /24/03/08 www.turkmenistan.gov.tm Full name: Official Turkmen government website/State Information Agency of Turkmenistan/Neutralniy Turkmenistan Original title: Law of Turkmenistan on foreign investments/18/03/08; Original title: Cooperation in Sake of Peace and Prosperity/25/03/08 http://turkmenistan.usembassy.gov Full name: US Embassy in Turkmenistan; Original title: Country Report On Human Rights Practices-2007/11/03/08; Original title: 2008 Investment Climate Statement-Turkmenistan/18/03/08
  • 8. - 8 - www.vremya.ru Full name: Vremya Novostei; Original title: Middle Asian Front/12/03/08 Original title: Ashgabat without Guaranty/26/03/08
  • 9. - 9 - Situation Analysis Report -April 1. Executive Summary During the month of April, the Turkmen leadership was actively involved in international events. The participation of President Berdymukhammedov to the NATO summit in Bucharest and his bilateral meeting with President Bush were highly publicized in the official media. The EU Troika meetings in Ashgabat also received much space in the local press. The energy conference in London has seen the participation of all the energy ministers from Turkmenistan. In the sphere of monetary policy, a unified exchange for the US$ was achieved at the rate of 14, 250 Manats. This triggered a visible acceleration of the inflation rate, notably for imported goods. The President made a series of new appointments in the economic leadership of the Country. Most notably, a new Chairman of the National Bank was appointed. The Minister of Finance and National Co-ordinator, Mr Geldymuradov, was promoted to the position of Deputy Chairman for the Economic Sector. Mr Gotchiev was appointed to the position of Minister of Finance and National Co-ordinator, replacing Mr Geldymuradov. The human rights situation remained in the spotlight of prominent human rights organizations. On the eve of the EC Troika visit to Ashgabat, Human Rights Watch issued a press release signaling the continuation of arbitrary arrests of Turkmen citizens over political and other motivations. Finally, both official press and television channels dedicated large space to the official opening ceremony of the “Europa House” held in Ashgabat on 10 April. 2. INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS President Berdymukhammedov defined his participation to the NATO summit in Bucharest as “a distinctively new sign of Turkmenistan’s authority and recognition” (Neutralny Turkmenistan, April 4). His meeting with George W. Bush in the summit’s lobby received high attention from the official media “it was the only bilateral meeting in the course of the NATO summit which the US President allocated his time for” (Neutralny Trukmenistan: 4 April). In his short speech in Bucharest, President Berdymukhammedov expressed his support for the idea of building a trans-Afghanistan gas pipeline. It is worth noting, that this project was first ventilated in the mid-90s, but never referred to again by the Turkmen leadership before the Bucharest Summit.
  • 10. - 10 - During his bilateral talks with the EC Commissioner for External Relations and Neighbourhood Policy, Benita Ferrero-Waldner, the President of Turkmenistan referred to the EU as “ a strategic partner” (Neutralny Trukmenistan: 4 April), but significantly eluded to make reference to the Trans-Caspian Pipeline (TCP) as well as to other projects aimed at bringing Turkmen gas to the world markets bypassing Russia. Instead, he resorted to the well known rhetoric on multi-vector policy of gas supplies. In contrast, during her interview to the Financial Times, Commissioner Ferrero-Waldner declared that the President: ". . . gave us assurances that 10bcm will be set aside for Europe in addition to possibilities in new fields to be tendered. It was not a "vast quantity", she said, but "a very important first step" (Financial Times: 14 April). In her interview, Mrs Ferrero- Waldner added that “ the Turkmen offer, which would run from next year, required European business to invest in pipeline infrastructure and exploration” (Financial Times: 14 April). Furthermore, elaborating on the possible transit routes for the 10bcm, the EC Commissioner mentioned three short-term options which were discussed with the President: “to close a 60km gap between Azeri and Turkmen offshore installations with a mini-pipeline; to build an onshore link to Kazakhstan to connect with a route to Azerbaijan; to compress the gas into liquid form and take it by tanker across the sea" (Financial Times: 14 April). However, some Azerbaijani experts consider that bringing those options into reality could be hindered by the low capacity of Azeri offshore installations, obviously insufficient for pumping 10 bcm of Turkmen gas through; by the absence of tankers fleet in the Caspian Sea and by the limited facilities for storage and transportation of Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) to the Black Sea shores of Georgia or to Turkey (TrendCapital: 15 April). An international conference titled “Oil and gas in Turkmenistan 2008” took place in London during April, with the participation of the energy leadership of Turkmenstan, energy policy- makers from Europe and multinational corporations. At the conference, Turkmen government officials tried to reassure the international community and potential investors that Turkmenistan is in a position to meet all its gas export commitments, though industry experts argue that “virtually all current export production, of 50bcm, is covered by contracts running to 2028” (Financial Times: 14 April). Moreover, official government statements released end April indicate that production of LNG, natural gas, and polypropylene decreased in the last two consecutive months-i.e. March and April (Vzglyad: 17 April). Speaking at the Conference, the energy leadership of Turkmenistan also voiced their opposition to onshore foreign investment in oil and gas. On a different note, the EUSR Special Representative for Central Asia, Pierre Morel, stated that the European Union is ready to sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with
  • 11. - 11 - Turkmenistan. The MoU would outline a framework for energy cooperation, including exchange of information, energy security, efficiency and technology (Guardian: 17 April). Much space was dedicated in the official media to the opening ceremony of the “Europa House” in Ashgabat, with the participation of the European Commissioner for External Relations and Neighbourhood Policy, Mrs Ferrero-Waldner; the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkmenistan, Mr Meredov; and the EUSR Special Representative for Central Asia, Mr Morel. All media highlighted the personal involvement and interest of President Berdymukhammedov, who signed a special resolution to allocate appropriate premises to the new project, and underlined the strong support of the Turkmen government for the activity of the “Europa House”. On 30 April, the UN Secretary General appointed the first Director of the UN Centre for Preventive Diplomacy in Central Asia, Mr Miroslav Yencu, a former Slovak diplomat. The Centre is located in Ashgabat and 2.3 million US$ have been earmarked for its operations (Neutralny Turkmenistan: 1 May). 3. SOCIAL ECONOMIC SITUATION 3.1 Economic developments During April, monetary policy has been the focus of government action in the economic sphere. At the Cabinet of Ministers meeting of 14 April, President Berdymukhammedov criticized the work of the Minister of Finance, Mr Geldymuradov, and appointed Mr Gotchiev to the position of Minister of Finance. In spite of the criticism, Mr Geldymuradov was promoted to the position of Deputy Chairman with overall responsibility for the economic sector. During the same meeting, the Chairman of the National Bank was also dismissed. The backdrop of these changes in government, is the President televised address to the nation of 13 April in which he declared the intention of appreciating the value of the local currency (Manat) against the US$ and other traded foreign currencies-i.e. ruble and Euro-starting from 1 May 2008 (Gundogar: 16 April). Following the televised address, official comments in the press declared that “appreciating the national currency will serve to increase the outbound business activities of national enterprises and entrepreneurs”. (Neutralny Turkmenistan: 16 April). The immediate effect of the Presidential announcement has been panic among the population with long queues of citizens forming before bank buildings in Ashgabat and the regions
  • 12. - 12 - throughout the second half of April, with the intent of selling US$ for local currency in the expectation of a significant depreciation of the US$. In response to the situation, state banks stopped buying US$. As a result, a parallel foreign currency ‘black market’ emerged immediately, where US$ could be exchanged for Manats at a much depreciated rate. Food prices also jumped by about 10% during the second half of April and prices of many other imported items increased significantly. On 30 April a Presidential Decree fixed a unified exchanged rate for the US$ at 14,250 manats, in between the two previous official exchange rates of 6,200 Manats (banking rate) and 19,800 Manats (commercial rate, used by the population). (Neutralny Turkmenistan: 1 May). 3.2 Developments in velayats (regions) President Berdymukhammedov announced the approval of a Concept for the Social- Economic Development of the Balkan Velayat (in western Turkmenistan) till 2012 (Neutralny Turkmenistan: 15 April), but it is not clear whether the Concept will be followed by the development of a full-fledged strategy and whether the funding for its implementation will be part of the US$ 4 billion programme for the development of the regions (see March report). The President also expressed dissatisfaction with the pace of implementation of the programme for the development of the regions. In most cases works did not proceed beyond the stage of feasibility study. In practical terms it means that the announced cosntruction of inland highways, the stretching of high voltage power lines, the construction of running water and sewage infrastrcuture, civil engineering in remote areas of Turkmenistan have not yet started (Neutralny Turkmenistan, April 15). . .
  • 13. - 13 - 4. LEGAL FRAMEWORK, STAFFING AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION STRUCTURE 4.1 Legal framework Apart from the Decree on the Exchange Rate (see above Section 3.1, par. 3), April’s primary addition to the legal framework of Turkmenistan has been a decree on the denomination of the national currency of Turkmenistan. According to the latter decree, as from 1 January 2009, new banknotes will be introduced at the ratio of 1:1000 of the Manats notes currently in circulation. 4.2 Staffing The most noticeable move in staffing policy of Turkmenistan President in April has been the dismissal of Mr Abilov, Central Bank of Turkmenistan (CBT) Chairman for “serious shortcomings in his work and failure to carry out the assumed responsibilities” (Neutralny Turkmenistan: 15 April). The dismissal turned to be unexpected to many, since the President never lashed out on him over recent months. Nevertheless bankers started informally telling about that possibility half-a-year ago and even rumored the name of a successor. As widely expected, Mr. Geoklenov, former ‘Vnesheconombank’ Chairman, was appointed as new Central Bank Chairman. He is widely perceived as well-experienced. Equally important, he seems to have a strong advantage. As the majority of other members of Berdymukhammedov’s Cabinet team, the new CBT Chairman was born in the same district of the President. Also from the same district of the President is the former Minister of Finance Geldymyradov, who was promoted in April to the position of Deputy Chairman in charge of the Economic Sector. In accordance with the President’s decision, his former deputy, Mr A. Gotchiev has become the new Minister of Finance of Turkmenistan as well as the new National Co- ordinator of EC technical assistance to Turkmenistan. 4.3 Public administration structure Due to President’s Resolution, the Ministry of Construction and Production of Construction Materials has been split into two separate organizations: Ministry of Construction and Ministry of Production of Construction Materials respectively (Neutralny Turkmenistan: 15 April). Moreover, the President renamed the State Service on Registration of Foreigners into State Service on Migration of Turkmenistan (Neutralny Turkmenstan: 15 April).
  • 14. - 14 - 5. HUMAN RIGHTS In April Turkmenistan continued to stay in the spotlight of international human rights organizations. From Amnesty International (AI) perspective “in spite of some individual projects and initiatives of European politicians resulted in a number of concrete positive outcomes, there has been massive violation of the rights of citizens in Central Asia. Dialogue with Turkmenistan has moved from a dead point but it was clearly not enough yet.” (Deutsche Welle: 8 April). On the threshold of talks of the EU Troika in Ashgabat Human Rights Watch distributed a press-release where it urged the EU not to overlook human rights issues in Turkmenistan by limiting her dialogue with Ashgabat to energy resources and geopolitical issues. “In fact in the sphere of human rights there are really no big changes in Turkmenistan. People still can not express their opinions and there is no possibility to criticize authorities”. – stated Imke Dirsen, staff member of AI in Germany (Deutsche Welle: 8 April). List of bibliographic references: www.hrw.org Full name: Human Rights Watch; Original title: EU: Urge Rights Reform in Central Asia (EU and Central Asian Leaders to Discuss Strategy at Ashgabat Meeting) /08/04/08 www.dw-world.de Full name:Deutsche Welle; Original title: Amnesty International Criticizes EC policy in Central Asia/08/04/08 www.gundogar.org Full name:Gundogar; Original title: Starting May 1, 2008 Rate of Dollar Will Be Changed and Prices Will Rise /16/04/08 http://www.guardian.co.uk Full name: The Guardian; Original title: Suitors line up in London to Court Turkmen Oil Wealth/17/04/08 www.ft.com Full name: Financial Times; Original title: Offer helps EU ease reliance on Russian gas/14/04/08 www.ca-oasis.info Full name: Oasis; Original title: Get Jailed Again? /issue #7/04/08/ http://news.trendaz.com Full name: News Trend Agency; Original title: Azerbaijan is Only Route for Independent Supply of Turkmen Gas to Europe /15/04/08 www.turkmenistan.gov.tm Full name: Official Turkmen government website/State Information Agency of Turkmenistan/Neutralniy Turkmenistan Original title: Targets On Implementation of Progressive Reforms Are Set /15/04/08; Decree on Denomination of National Currency of Turkmenistan /15/04/08; Denomination of Manat-Important Step Towards Market Economy and Integration into Global Economy System /16/04/08
  • 15. - 15 - www.vz.ru Full name:Vzglyad; Original title:Turkmenia Banns Foreigners to Extract Oil and Gas Onshore /17/04/08
  • 16. -16- ASSESSMENT OF INFORMATION SOURCES Level Web Address Host Institution Critical Assessment Relevance (1-5) Reliability (1-5) Independence (1-5) Official http://turkmenis tan.gov.tm State Information Agency (TDH) Controlled by the Government of Turkmenistan. Reflects only official views on trends and events. Updated on daily basis. ♦♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦ ♦ http://turkmenis tan.ru Embassy of Turkmenistan in Russia. Controlled by the Government of Turkmenistan. Provides timely and broader than other official sources coverage of events. Updated on daily basis. ♦♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦ ♦ http://oilgas.gov .tm Ministry of oil &gas & natural resources of Turkmenistan. Controlled by the Government of Turkmenistan. Provides information on developments in energy sector, chemical industry and fishery. Updated irregularly. ♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦ ♦ http://tfeb.gov.t m Turkmenistan Bank for foreign economic affairs. Controlled by the Government of Turkmenistan. Created for PR purpose. Provides some information on banking sector. Updated irregularly ♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦ ♦ http://natureprot ection.gov.tm Ministry for nature protection of Turkmenistan. Controlled by the Government of Turkmenistan. Created for PR purpose. Provides some information on environmental issues. Updated irregularly ♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦ ♦ http://science.go v.tm Supreme Council for Science & Technics under president of Turkmenistan. Controlled by the Government of Turkmenistan. Created for PR purpose. Provides some information on scientific and educational issues. Updated irregularly ♦♦♦ ♦♦♦ ♦ www.gundogar. Opposition site created The most popular opposition site ♦♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦
  • 17. - 17 - Oppositi onal org by former Turkmenistan vice prime minister B. Shikhmuradov (jailed). Maintained now by his family and supporters. which takes a critical view on policies of the government of Turkmenistan. Publishes its own articles and places Turkmenistan –related stories collected from other information sources. Updated on daily basis. www.watan.ru Opposition site created and run by former Turkmenistan vice prime minister and Central Bank chairman H.Orazov. The second most popular opposition site. Critical on policies of the government of Turkmenistan. Publishes articles of both its own staff and outside media interested in Turkmenistan. Updated on daily basis. ♦♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦ www.dogryyol. com Opposition site created and run by former Turkmenistan vice prime minister N. Soyunov. The site takes sometimes critical approach toward Turkmenistan authorities; however its owners prefer rather to re-publish someone’s coverage of Turkmen events, than express their own views. Updated regularly ♦♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦ http://www.chro no-tm.org Opposition site created and run by former Turkmenistan Central Bank Deputy Chairman A.Khadjiev. Named Turkmenistan Helsinki Group this site closely monitors situation with human rights in Turkmenistan. It benefits from a good network of informants in provincial areas of the country. Updated regularly. ♦♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦ http://www.iwp r.net Institute for War and Peace Reporting The Takes a critical view on the policies of Turkmenistan current authorities. ♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦
  • 18. - 18 - Inter- national Institute exists as an international network for media development, with not for- profit divisions in Europe, the US and Africa Provides broad coverage of social problems. Has a number of insiders working for IWPR in provincial areas of Turkmenistan. Updated regularly. http://www.caci analyst The Central Asian Analyst, a magazine established and run at John Hopkins University , USA Regularly publishes analytical reports and field surveys of its teachers and students on Central Asian political developments including those in Turkmenistan ♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦ www.vremya.ru Vremya Novostei , independent Russian daily newspaper based in Moscow The newspaper has prominent experts on Central Asian affairs, specifically on Turkmenistan, which provide extensive and in-depth coverage of country’s trends and events. Updated on daily basis. ♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦ http://www.rferl .org Radio Free Europe- Radio Liberty Financially supported by US Congress this radio station, unlike others, has a special desk on Turkmenistan, therefore provides news and analysis on a daily basis. In recent past RFE- RL has several correspondents working inside Turkmenistan. ♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦ http://www.new scentralasia.net News Central Asia, a private on-line news agency This media outlet primarily focuses on Turkmenistan and based in Ashgabat. Its establisher and owner, a Pakistani journalist, is in favor of authorities and often mirrors their views in his coverage Updated on weekly basis. ♦♦♦♦ ♦♦ ♦♦ http://enews.fer gana.ru Private information agency based in Moscow, Russia The agency keeps an eye on regional developments in Central Asia, provides news and comments on ♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦
  • 19. - 19 - Inter- national political, social and cultural life. Updated on daily basis www.registan.n et Blog that focused on the former Soviet Republics of Central Asia and the Caucasus The blog covers Eurasian politics and news, seeking to draw more attention to issues and news rarely covered in much depth, if at all, by Western media. Updated regularly. ♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦ http://www.cent ralasianvoices.o rg The website is supported by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Central Asian Voices is an interactive multilingual website that features timely analysis of political, economic, social and security developments in the five states of Central Asia. Updated regularly. ♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦ http://news.tren daz.com Private information agency based in Baku, Azerbaijan. Covers economic and political developments in Caspian region. Updated regularly. ♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦ http://turkmenis tan.usembassy.g ov Official site of US Embassy in Turkmenistan Reflects US official views of Turkmenistan-related policies and events. Updated regularly. ♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦ http://www.rsf. org Reporters sans Frontieres, non- governmental organization based in Paris, France Established to protect rights of journalists over the globe. Updated regularly. ♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦ www.amnesty.o rg Amnesty International, prominent human rights watchdog. Monitors satiation and reports on violation of human rights across the globe. Updated on daily basis. ♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦
  • 20. - 20 - Inter- national www.eurasianet .org EurasiaNet is operated by the Central Eurasia Project of the Open Society Institute. Provides information and analysis about political, economic, environmental and social developments in the countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus, as well as in Russia, the Middle East, and Southwest Asia. Updated regularly ♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦ www.timesca.c om The Times of Central Asia. Weekly newspaper based in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. Provides independent and informative coverage of regional developments. ♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦ www.ft.com Financial Times Sometimes publishes news on central Asia ♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦ http://www.turk ishweekly.net the Journal Turkish Weekly published by Ankara-based leading Turkish think tank International Strategic Research Organization News source in English language mainly on international politics, Turkey, Middle East, Caucasus, Eastern Europe, Black Sea Rim and Central Asia. ♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦ www.dw- world.de Deutsche Welle radio station based in Germany Often covers political and economic developments in Central Asia, specifically in Turkmenistan ♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦ http://www.guar dian.co.uk The Guardian. Daily British newspaper Sporadically publishes stories on Central Asia -related issues ♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦ www.vz.ru Vzglyad- Russian web business newspaper Sometimes publishes news on Central Asia-related issues ♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦
  • 21. - 21 - http://www.ca- oasis.info Independent web magazine. Established by Center for Extreme Journalism with a sponsorship of US National Endowment for Democracy. Covers political and economic developments in Central Asia. Updated periodically ♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦ www.hrw.org Human Rights Watch. Prominent human rights watchdog based in New York. Regularly raises issues on situation in Central Asia ♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦ ♦♦♦♦♦