The Feasibility of the Two-State Solution – Presentation by Col. (Ret.) Shaul Arieli in Australia

1. The Feasibility of the Two State
Idea:
Israel – Palestine
Shaul Arieli
2015

2. • 673,400 Arabs
• 83,790 Jews
Two national narratives
which contradict each
other. But every one of
them has political, legal
and moral validity.

3. : “…only by means of partition can these two
opposing national aspirations be manifested
in concrete terms, and the two peoples
allowed to take their place as independent
nations in the international community and in
the United Nations…” (Partition Report).

4. “There Is No Alternative”
The two sides entered into the peace process
in 1988-1993 in the belief that the
diplomatic option was the best way of
securing their national interests in light of
the regional and global developments at the
time:
USAGulf War
Demographic
balance
Intifada

5. Year
Israel
(78%)
201379.3%
202078.5%
202478.1%
203077.4%
203477.4%
205078.7%
Demographic Trend - Jewish Population

6. West Bank – Israeli Settlement
570,000 Israelis(100%)
137 Settlements(100%)
130,000 Israelis(23%)
107 Settlements(78%)
440,000 Israelis(77%)
30 Settlements(22%)

7. 97.1% Jewish
communi
ties
Jewish
residents
Arab
communi
ties
Arab
residents
Total
residents% Arabs
Jordan Valley &
Nth. Dead Sea4551,135249664,152715,28792.8
Western Judea &
Samaria3483,287163422,787506,07483.5
Mountain Ridge2831,3132841,065,1511,096,46497.1
Jerusalem
Surrounds30387,55296517,15590,470757.1
Total137553,2877922,669,2453,153,532
83
Percentage of Palestinians in
4 zones of Jewish settlement
92.8%
83.5%
57.1%

8. Year
Land of Israel
(100%)
Israel without Gaza
201352.2%61%
202049%
202447.7%57%
203044%
203446.4%55.8%
205033%
Demographic Trend - Jewish Population

9. Israel
On the regional and national level, demographic
processes are influencing three key goals:
1. To be a Jewish state
2. To be a democratic state
3. To extend over the entire historical territory
However, Israel can only realize two of these three goals
simultaneously:
1. It can be Jewish and territorial…
But not democratic
2. It can be democratic and territorial…
But not Jewish
3. It can be Jewish and democratic…
But not territorial

10. • Borders: 1967 lines as a basis and territorial
exchange on a 1:1 ratio
• Jerusalem: Division of East Jerusalem between the
two capitals
• Refugees: Solution to the refugee question that is
not based on immigration to to Israel
• Security: The Palestinian State will be demilitarized
and all forms of violence must end.
• Two states, a national home for the Jewish people
and a national home for the Palestinian people
Parameters of an Agreement

11. 428.5 sq.km
21 km
85% of Israelis in 56
communities under
Israeli sovereignty
90K

12. 63% of Israelis in 30
communities under
Israeli sovereignty
220K

13. The basic tension
The fundamental dilemma
How to reconcile reliable
security arrangements with
the minimum possible
disruption to Palestinian
sovereignty?
? ? ? ? ?

14. Key Assumptions:
1. It is not possible to separate the Palestinian issue and
the regional situation.
2. The Middle East suffers from a high level of
uncertainty, it is difficult to predict where the
processes lead us.
Israeli Perception

16. 10M internally
displaced
3.5M refugees
Over 250K deaths
10% children
1/3 buildings destroyed ½ hospitals destroyed
CW attacks
½ the army defected
(mostly seniors)
The Situation in Syria

17. Iraq
1. Divided State
2. Iranian dominance and influence through
Shiite militias

18. Iran’s growing influence

20. The major changes in Past decades
1. USA -The only superpower(1988)
2. Peace Agreement with Egypt(1979)
3. Mutual recognition between Israel and
the PLO & Oslo Agreement(1993)
4. Peace Agreement with Jordan(1994)
5. Arab League Peace Initiative(2002)

21. Bilateral security: From control on the ground to
disarmament and security arrangements

22. Key Assumptions
3. To establish a stable, functional and
responsible Palestinian state without harming
Israel's security needs.
4. Israel wants to ensure that if the agreement
with the Palestinians collapses, its security
situation would not worsen.
5. It takes time to rebuild the trust between the
parties

23. • Preventing terrorism and attacks from
the borders – and restrictions on
armament.
• Establishing "conditional security
depth."
• Security cooperation – bilateral,
trilateral (Jordan, Israel, Palestine) and
regional.
• An international force to operate as part
of the security arrangements between
Israel and Palestine, undertaking
monitoring and mentoring and deterring
violations of the agreement.
The Israeli Security Perception
Regarding a Future Agreement
with the Palestinians is Based on
Four Pillars:

24. Agreed Security Arrangements
1. Demilitarization
2. Presence of international forces
3. Early warning stations
4. Israeli control of airspace
Security in the two state solution

25. • The duration of
temporary IDF
presence:
5-15-40
• Transfer of
responsibility:
multinational
force/NATO/
American/
Palestinian
• Crossing points
supervision

26. The Jerusalem
Issue
“We won’t be asked to
divide something that is
already divided” (Teddy
Kollek)

27. Jerusalem: Division of
Neighborhoods on
Demographic Basis

29. 2.5‫קמ‬"‫ר‬
70,000 Residents
• Palestinians -
Demographic
division
• Israel-
International
Management

30. Residence – Palestinian refugees may return to
the Palestinian state, remain in their host
countries or emigrate to a different
consenting state.
Israel proposal in Annapolis (2008) – 1000 each
year for 5 years
Palestinians proposal in Annapolis (2008) –
10,000 each year for 10 years
Compensation – an international mechanism
will manage the financing of treatment and
compensation of the refugees issue
Refugees

31. No Real Alternatives

32. Division of Responsibilities in
the West Bank
Area A
1,173,697Area B
886,011
Area C 74,756
Total population of West Bank: 2,134,464
Area A
18%
Area B
22%Area C
60%
% of Area of the West Bank
Distribution of the Total Population in the
West Bank

33. “Stability Initiative”:
“Israel will Annex C Areas (60% of
the West Bank) and the
Palestinians will have a “Self Rule”
in the Palestinian Cities” (Naftali
Bennet, 2012)

34. One State
•Gaza?
•Refugees?
•Economy?
•Security?
“Full Annexation”:
“To start a process which at the
end of it the Palestinians will have
“Blue I.D, Yellow Number, Social
insurance and a Right to vote to
the Knesset” (Elitzur, 11)
“I prefer the Palestinians as Israeli
Civilians rather than divide the
Land” (Reuven Rivlin, 2011)

35. 13
10
7
One state inc. Gaza One state without
Gaza
Israel 2013 inc.
East Jerusalem
Unemployment rate (16+)
Series1
23,710
27,331
40,000
One state inc. Gaza One state without Gaza Israel 2013 inc. East
Jerusalem
Per Capita GDP ($)
287,781
286,014
280,984
One state inc. Gaza One state without Gaza Israel 2013 inc. East
Jerusalem
GDP ($ Millions)

36. “Jordan is Palestine”:
– “The Palestinians in Yehuda ve-Shomron will have
to choose to be Israeli Inhabitants and Citizens of
the Palestinian-Jordanian State and Vote for the
Parliament in Amman” (Arieh Eldad, 2009)

37. Stagnation & Potential
deterioration

38. Hamas Challenge

39. The Sensitivity of the Temple Mount

41. International
“Involvement”
According to the latest UN report:
Foreign investments in Israel have fallen by
Since Operation Protective Edge, total overnight stays by
tourists in Israel have fallen by
2014
6.4billion
2013
8.1billion
46%
25%

42. An agreement is necessary before:
• The existing political leadership is
replaced
• Iran - the destructive power - achieves
nuclear capability
• Hamas takes over the PLO
• The international community begins to
impose boycotts and sanctions against
Israel
• Extreme nationalism takes over Israeli
democracy
• A visible increase of anti-Semitism in the
world because of Israeli policies

43. ‫תודה‬!
shaul@orsha.co.il
WWW.SHAULARIELI.COM
ARIELI SHAUL

44. “But here, too, we must tell the whole truth:
In the heart of the Jewish homeland a large population of
Palestinians now lives. We do not wish to rule them, to
manage their lives, or to impose our flag and our culture on
them.
In my vision of peace, two free peoples live side by side in
our small country, in neighborliness and mutual respect.
Each has its own flag, anthem, and government.
And neither threatens the security and existence of its
neighbor.”
Bar Ilan Speech 2009