The document analyzes the gold market and provides a forecast for XAU/USD (gold prices). It notes that gold prices continue to correct from highs in a potential "Head and Shoulders" pattern. It expects gold to test support near $1740 before potentially rebounding to over $1885. However, rising US Treasury yields make gold more susceptible to declines. The analysis concludes that gold may consolidate in the near term but broader declines are possible if yields continue rising.

1. XAU/USD Forecast And GOLD
Analysis

2. Points To Be Discussed Today:
• Gold Continue To Move
• Signal In Favor Of Raising The XAU/USD
• Gold Price Rebound Susceptible To Rising Us
Treasury Yields
• Price Of Gold May Consolidate
• Gold Price Daily Chart
• GLD ETF Outflows Dim XAU Outlook
• Gold Technical Forecast

3. Gold Continue To Move
• GOLD continue to move as part of the
correction and the formation of an inverted
“Head and Shoulders” reversal pattern.
• At the time of the publication of the
forecast, the price of GOLD is 1752 Dollars
per Troy Oz. Moving averages indicate a
short-term bearish trend.

4. GOLD With A Potential Target
• Prices broke through the areas between the
signal lines downward, which indicates pressure
from the sellers of the asset and a potential
continuation of the fall from the current levels.
• At the moment, we should expect an attempt to
develop a decline and test the support level near
the 1740 area.
• Where can we expect a rebound and a continued
rise in the price of GOLD with a potential target
above the level of 1885.

5. Signal In Favor Of Raising The
XAU/USD
• An additional signal in favor of raising the
XAU/USD quotes will be a test of the support
area on the relative strength index (RSI).
• The second signal will be a rebound from the
lower border of the Head and Shoulders
reversal pattern.
• Cancellation of the option to raise GOLD
prices on September 29, 2021 will be a fall and
a breakdown of the level of 1685.

6. The Rise In XAU/USD Quotes
• This will indicate a breakdown of the support
area and a continued fall to the area below the
level of 1615.
• Expect an acceleration of the rise in XAU/USD
quotes with the breakdown of the resistance area
and closing of the price above the level of 1835,
in this case, we consider the completion of the
formation of the model and the continuation of
the development of the rise in the price of Gold.

7. XAU/USD Forecast And GOLD Analysis
• XAU/USD Forecast and GOLD analysis September
29, 2021 implies an attempt to test the support
area near the level of 1740.
• Further, the growth of quotations with a target
above the level of 1885 will continue.
• This will indicate a breakout of the support area
and cancellation of the pattern.
• In this case, we should expect the GOLD price to
continue to decline with a potential target below
the level of 1615.

8. Gold Price Talking Points
• The price of gold seems to be carving a bullish
inside day candle as it attempts to retrace the
decline from the start of the week.
• But current market conditions may continue
to drag on the precious metal as speculation
for a looming shift in Federal Reserve policy
lifts US Treasury yields.

9. Gold Price Rebound Susceptible To Rising
Us Treasury Yields
• The price of gold bounces back from a fresh
monthly low ($1728) as the 10-Year Treasury
yield pulls back from a fresh monthly high
(1.56%).
• And bullion may consolidate over the
remainder of the week as an inside day candle
takes shape going into the end of September.

10. Economic Calendar

11. Price Of Gold May Consolidate
• The price of gold may consolidate over the
remainder of the week as it holds within the
previous day’s range.
• But the rebound from the August low ($1682)
may turn out to be a correction in the broader
trend rather than a change in market
behavior as longer-dated Treasury yields
retrace the decline from earlier this year.

12. Gold Price Daily Chart

13. GLD ETF Outflows Dim XAU Outlook
• Gold prices remain under pressure as Treasury
selloff continues
• ETF holdings hit fresh multi-month low as retail
ditches GLD
• XAU/USD price breaks below technical level on
weakness.
• Gold prices continued to struggle as
traders priced in a higher rate environment in
2022 as central banks around the globe move to
tighten monetary policy.

14. GLD ETF Outflows Dim XAU Outlook - I
• The Federal Reserve’s September rate decision
caused a selloff in Treasuries after the policy
statement hinted that tapering balance sheet
growth is nearing.
• While tapering asset purchases
doesn’t guarantee subsequent rate hikes, that
is largely seen to be the case in this scenario –
evidenced by the reaction in Treasury yields.

15. Stronger US Dollar Makes Gold More
Expensive
• Meanwhile, the broader market is seeing
a wave of risk aversion.
• The US Dollar has benefited from that
move, especially given the bearish
backdrop in Treasuries.
• A stronger US Dollar makes gold more
expensive for foreign buyers.

16. Inflation Is Set To Run Over Target
• Persistent price pressures are also pushing
yields higher, with surging energy
prices adding to the argument against the
Fed’s transitory inflation narrative.
• St. Louis Federal Reserve President James
Bullard reinforced the central bank’s hawkish
outlook and said inflation is set to run over
target through 2024.

17. Gold Tracking Etfs
• Gold is also showing weakness through ETF fund
flows.
• Exchanged-traded funds (ETF) are a type of
security that allows many retail traders to gain
exposure to gold.
• Total holding for Gold tracking ETFs fell to the
lowest level since May this past week.
• Outflows from ETFs are generally considered to
show a bearish outlook for the underlying asset.

18. ETF Holding Of Gold & XAU/USD

19. Gold Technical Forecast
• Gold prices broke through the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement from the July/August move after
the Fib level offered support over the past
several days.
• That downside break opens the 23.6% Fib at
1717.87, which was last tested in early August.
• RSI moderated above the oversold 30 level,
while MACD remains oriented lower.

20. XAU/USD Forecast And GOLD
Analysis

21. Thanks for listening
XAU/USD Forecast And GOLD
Analysis