The US shale oil revolution is a classic example of high prices and technological innovation spurring previously unimaginable increases in production. But can the boom continue despite the drop in global prices, driven by further technological development, or are we set to see some unravelling as margins evaporate?
The Saturday Economist Oil Market Update 2015John Ashcroft
What is pushing oil prices lower? What’s the difference between Brent Crude or West Texas Intermediate? Will prices stay low and what are the prospects for oil demand growth? Who are the winners and losers? What is the impact of lower oil prices on the economy? Are lower oil prices good for growth? What does the falling price mean for the consumer? US Oils rigs go up as the oil prices rise, so is the real challenge, Sheiks versus Shale or a Western squeeze on Russian resources?
Check out our oil market update to understand just what is happening in the oil Market
1. Reflation Phase To Be Temporary, More Downside Ahead
Earlier on in 2016, ‘random and violent markets’ went off to panic mode out of (i) fears over China’s messy stock market and devaluing currency, (ii) plummeting oil price, (iii) strong US Dollar. Today, we believe complacent markets are similarly illogical and over-shooting, this time on the way up. As we re-assess the validity of the underlying risks, we expect a shift in narrative in the few months ahead and a sizeable sell-off for risk assets.
2. Four Key Conviction Ideas
We analyze below our key ideas for the next 12 months:
Short Chinese Renminbi Thesis. In Q1, China only managed to keep GDP in shape by means of graciously expanding credit by a monumental 1 trn $. Unsurprisingly, at 250% total debt on GDP, you cannot borrow 10% of GDP per quarter for long, without a currency adjustment, whether desired or not.
Short Oil Thesis. Long-term, we believe Oil will follow a volatile path around a declining trend-line, which will take it one day to sub-10$. Within 2016, we expect global aggregate demand to stay anemic and supply to surprise on the upside, inventories to grow, primarily due to the accelerating speed of technological progress.
Short S&P Thesis. To us, the S&P is priced to perfection, despite a most cloudy environment for growth and risk assets, thus representing a good value short, for limited upside is combined with the risk of a sizeable sell-off in the months ahead.
Short European Banks Thesis. We believe that micro policies at the local level, while valid, are impotent against heavy structural macro headwinds, and only the macro environment can save the banking sector in its current form in the longer-term. Macro structural headwinds for banks these days are too heavy a burden (negative sloped interest rate curves, deeply negative interest rates, deflationary economy, depressed GDP growth, over-regulation, Fintech), and will likely push valuations to new lows in the months/years ahead.
The Saturday Economist Oil Market Update 2015John Ashcroft
What is pushing oil prices lower? What’s the difference between Brent Crude or West Texas Intermediate? Will prices stay low and what are the prospects for oil demand growth? Who are the winners and losers? What is the impact of lower oil prices on the economy? Are lower oil prices good for growth? What does the falling price mean for the consumer? US Oils rigs go up as the oil prices rise, so is the real challenge, Sheiks versus Shale or a Western squeeze on Russian resources?
Check out our oil market update to understand just what is happening in the oil Market
1. Reflation Phase To Be Temporary, More Downside Ahead
Earlier on in 2016, ‘random and violent markets’ went off to panic mode out of (i) fears over China’s messy stock market and devaluing currency, (ii) plummeting oil price, (iii) strong US Dollar. Today, we believe complacent markets are similarly illogical and over-shooting, this time on the way up. As we re-assess the validity of the underlying risks, we expect a shift in narrative in the few months ahead and a sizeable sell-off for risk assets.
2. Four Key Conviction Ideas
We analyze below our key ideas for the next 12 months:
Short Chinese Renminbi Thesis. In Q1, China only managed to keep GDP in shape by means of graciously expanding credit by a monumental 1 trn $. Unsurprisingly, at 250% total debt on GDP, you cannot borrow 10% of GDP per quarter for long, without a currency adjustment, whether desired or not.
Short Oil Thesis. Long-term, we believe Oil will follow a volatile path around a declining trend-line, which will take it one day to sub-10$. Within 2016, we expect global aggregate demand to stay anemic and supply to surprise on the upside, inventories to grow, primarily due to the accelerating speed of technological progress.
Short S&P Thesis. To us, the S&P is priced to perfection, despite a most cloudy environment for growth and risk assets, thus representing a good value short, for limited upside is combined with the risk of a sizeable sell-off in the months ahead.
Short European Banks Thesis. We believe that micro policies at the local level, while valid, are impotent against heavy structural macro headwinds, and only the macro environment can save the banking sector in its current form in the longer-term. Macro structural headwinds for banks these days are too heavy a burden (negative sloped interest rate curves, deeply negative interest rates, deflationary economy, depressed GDP growth, over-regulation, Fintech), and will likely push valuations to new lows in the months/years ahead.
Oil has for decades been perceived as a necessary and highly addictive energy commodity, fueling the world economy. It is a crucial input good for most of the net-oil consumer countries, and it is an important source of revenue for the net-oil supplier countries. This means that any changes in the oil price will affect the entire world economy. Chloé Le Coq and Zorica Trkulja from Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics have written a policy brief that explains to what extent the oil-price fluctuations matter for the economy.
Read more: https://www.hhs.se/site
‘Deflationary Boom Markets’
‘Deflationary Boom Markets’ is the name of the game. Deflation forces Central Banks into action. Central banks to push Bonds and Equities higher, inflating the bubble some more, although on a rougher path and with higher volatility than we got accustomed to in recent years.
In this post, I try to discuss the structural changes causing oil price volatility. I also apply 'Game Theory' concepts to analyze the behavior of various stake holders. I conclude by making a prediction on oil prices based on my analysis.
Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook
1. The Future Is Wide Open: Avoid The ‘Illusion Of Knowledge’ Trap
The single most dangerous thinking trap / optical illusion for investors today is to look at Trump, Brexit and Italy Referendum as non-events, buried in the past. We believe that 2017 may likely be driven by the same factors that failed to shape 2016. The non-events of 2016 are likely to be the drivers of 2017. Finally, we will get to find out if Brexit means Brexit, if Trump means Trump, if a failed Italian referendum means early elections and a membership of the EMU in jeopardy down the line.
2. Structural Shift: These Are Transformational Times
The macro outlook of the next years will be influenced the most by these structural trends:
› Protectionism, De-Globalization & De-Dollarization. In Pursuit of Inclusive Growth
› End of ‘Pax Americana’. The ascent of China. Geopolitical risks on the rise
› End of ‘Pax QE’. Markets without steroids, but still delusional.
› 4th Industrial Revolution: labor participation rate falling from 63% to 40% in 10 years?
3. Our Baseline Scenario: Bubble Unwind, Equities and Bonds Down
Starting this 2017, our major macro convictions are as follows:
› Global Tapering to progress
› US Dollar to keep grinding higher
› European Political Instability to worsen
› US Equities to weaken
This study assesses the effect of world oil price shocks on Uganda’s official development assis-tance using Structural Vector Autoregressive Model (SVAR). The results in this study show in-significant pass-through effect of world oil price shocks to Uganda’s Official Development As-sistance received in the period under the study. The policy implication in this study is that Offi-cial Development Assistance received by Uganda is independent of world oil price shocks.
Oil has for decades been perceived as a necessary and highly addictive energy commodity, fueling the world economy. It is a crucial input good for most of the net-oil consumer countries, and it is an important source of revenue for the net-oil supplier countries. This means that any changes in the oil price will affect the entire world economy. Chloé Le Coq and Zorica Trkulja from Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics have written a policy brief that explains to what extent the oil-price fluctuations matter for the economy.
Read more: https://www.hhs.se/site
‘Deflationary Boom Markets’
‘Deflationary Boom Markets’ is the name of the game. Deflation forces Central Banks into action. Central banks to push Bonds and Equities higher, inflating the bubble some more, although on a rougher path and with higher volatility than we got accustomed to in recent years.
In this post, I try to discuss the structural changes causing oil price volatility. I also apply 'Game Theory' concepts to analyze the behavior of various stake holders. I conclude by making a prediction on oil prices based on my analysis.
Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook
1. The Future Is Wide Open: Avoid The ‘Illusion Of Knowledge’ Trap
The single most dangerous thinking trap / optical illusion for investors today is to look at Trump, Brexit and Italy Referendum as non-events, buried in the past. We believe that 2017 may likely be driven by the same factors that failed to shape 2016. The non-events of 2016 are likely to be the drivers of 2017. Finally, we will get to find out if Brexit means Brexit, if Trump means Trump, if a failed Italian referendum means early elections and a membership of the EMU in jeopardy down the line.
2. Structural Shift: These Are Transformational Times
The macro outlook of the next years will be influenced the most by these structural trends:
› Protectionism, De-Globalization & De-Dollarization. In Pursuit of Inclusive Growth
› End of ‘Pax Americana’. The ascent of China. Geopolitical risks on the rise
› End of ‘Pax QE’. Markets without steroids, but still delusional.
› 4th Industrial Revolution: labor participation rate falling from 63% to 40% in 10 years?
3. Our Baseline Scenario: Bubble Unwind, Equities and Bonds Down
Starting this 2017, our major macro convictions are as follows:
› Global Tapering to progress
› US Dollar to keep grinding higher
› European Political Instability to worsen
› US Equities to weaken
This study assesses the effect of world oil price shocks on Uganda’s official development assis-tance using Structural Vector Autoregressive Model (SVAR). The results in this study show in-significant pass-through effect of world oil price shocks to Uganda’s Official Development As-sistance received in the period under the study. The policy implication in this study is that Offi-cial Development Assistance received by Uganda is independent of world oil price shocks.
Will India and China continue to enjoy healthy pp margins June 2015Platts
Will India and China continue to enjoy healthy PP margins? Will demand continue to outstrip supply and maintain margins
Platts Editor, Yi-Jeng Huang, recently presented on the topic of India and China Polypropylene on a Platts Petrochemicals webinar.
The changing dynamics and new challenges facing the North American petrochemi...Platts
A comprehensive review of the developments in shale gas affecting the North American petrochemical markets
• The benefits and detriments of the shale gas revolution
• Feedstock advantage spurs investment in new cracker builds and expansions
• New polyethylene capacities and exports to Latin America
• Lighter feed slates and the negative impact on heavier products, disconnect in ethylene/propylene production.
• Most significant in propylene as constraints impact pricing and facilitate volatility. Spillover effect for derivative products.
• Pending supply increases. Will it be enough?
• The shale boom and its impact on aromatics
• Lighter feed slates at crackers curbs aromatics output, negatively impact downstream products such as styrene, PTA, and PET
• Increased crude from shale plays and impact on crude import/export balance
• Northeast refineries shift to lighter crudes, trend likely to continue going forward.
• Conclusion
• What does this mean for the US petrochemical landscape going forward?
• How will this impact/alter global petrochemical trade flows?
Shale gas, naphtha & the petchems conundrum 2013Platts
Petchems market in review
–Fundamental changes
–US feedstock advantage
•Naphtha trade flows
–Where are the demand & supply centers
–Growth of US shale oil gives rise to LPG, naphtha exports to Asia
2
The Petrochemical Standard's latest Aromatics Trade Flow Report for the week of 11.24.14. To learn more, visit us on the web at www.petchemstandard.com
The business cycle, the global financial crisis and the future of oil markets are currently the three most popular topics of discussion. Since the start of the recession, the international media has been quick to bring many new theories and revelations, brilliant in their simplicity, to light. Hope is the mother of invention, and amidst the crisis they cannot be disproved. However, in two or three years time, 99% of this verbal chaff will have been blown away and only serious analytical work will remain.
Authored by: Leonid Grigoriev
Published in 2010
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
We enter 2021 on a note of cautious optimism for global health, the world economy, and the oil and gas markets. The first weeks of December brought approval in the US and the UK of the first of several COVID-19 vaccines. The speed with which vaccine development occurred is unprecedented, but certainly welcome. In the weeks following the early November announcement of 90+% effectiveness by the manufacturer of the first approved vaccine, the price of WTI crude oil increased by US$10/bbl to US$48/bbl, the highest level since early March. Sustainability hasn’t returned yet, and whatever time it takes to get the world to normal, it will take even longer for normalization within the oil and gas markets. Inventories remain at historically high levels and, optimistically, it will take until April before inventory returns to levels observed in the preceding five years. That’s an estimate, and there has obviously been some difficulty properly calibrating the expectations of how balance will return and how long it will take. In late November, OPEC met to adjust its output plans because of the anemic rebound in demand. In mid-December, the IEA lowered its demand forecast for 2021 due mostly to continued sluggishness in aviation fuel demand.
A mild winter has interrupted a recovery in North American natural gas prices after a run-up motivated by curtailed capital expenditures, upstream activity and production. After an initial meltdown, with cargo cancellations and dramatic price reversal, LNG markets have made a remarkable comeback, and the spread between Asia and Henry Hub has reached a level we haven’t seen in almost three years. It may be the case that interruption in FIDs has brought us to the cusp of a balance that can support reliable returns.
Booms and bust cycles are very much a part of investing in the fossil
fuel sector. In previous energy downturns, prices frequently
experienced serious slumps, but oil and gas companies mostly kept
faith in their biggest asset: Oil and gas reserves buried deep in the
ground. But things are markedly different this time around.
The Oil Age has powered the world for well over a century. There have
been two general thought about how it will ultimately end
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Energy Industry | 3Q 2015 | Segment: Explorati...Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Energy Industry newsletter provides perspective on valuation issues. Each newsletter also typically includes a macroeconomic trends, industry trends, and guideline public company metrics.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q2, April 2020EY
The first quarter of this year has seen some extraordinary events. As if chronic oversupply, prices stuck below sustainable levels, the looming energy transition, and investor pressure to decarbonize weren’t enough, our industry now faces a dramatic, but hopefully temporary, downturn in demand as a result of the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook (Q4, October 2020)EY
Oil and gas prices have recovered steadily from their lows and are relatively stable, but that stability is supported by the combination of purposeful withholding of production by oil-producing countries and economic stress on upstream independents. Oil prices closed the quarter roughly where they started it, while refining spreads were down slightly. LNG spreads were substantially higher at the end of Q3 than they were at the beginning of the quarter but are still roughly half of what is generally thought of as sustainable.
Going forward, the market will be looking closely at how the economy and demand respond to new developments with respect to a potential COVID-19 vaccine and the US election.
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Energy Industry | Q3 2021 | Segment: BakkenMercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Energy Industry newsletter provides perspective on valuation issues. Each newsletter also typically includes a macroeconomic trends, industry trends, and guideline public company metrics.
Nach einem eher verhaltenen Jahr 2013 nahmen 2014 M&A-Transaktionen in der Öl- und Gasindustrie deutlich zu. Angesichts des weiter sinkenden Ölpreises und der Entscheidung der OPEC gegen eine Drosselung der Fördermengen werden 2015 noch intensivere M&A-Aktivitäten in der gesamten Wertschöpfungskette stattfinden. Diese strategischen Deals sind für die Unternehmen wichtig, um Wertzuwächse zu erzielen, sich für kommende Marktturbulenzen zu rüsten und die Wettbewerbslandschaft zu ihren Gunsten zu formen.
Webinar: H1 2021 Global Food Commodity ReviewPlatts
In this webinar, discover how to stay ahead of market trends and dynamics, particularly at a time of high uncertainty in food commodity markets. Explore a comprehensive view of the Mintec commodity prices covered, going beyond just reporting market events but also providing insights on what to look out for and prepare for the first half of 2021. Some of the key topics covered are:
The weather has played a key role in global supply, particularly in those regions affected by droughts, floods and tropical storms. The La Nina weather pattern has caused droughts among Brazil's coffee heartlands, while also accelerating rainfall levels in Colombia.
Speculation has been a key theme for the soft commodity markets, particularly in light of changing consumption patterns and supply gluts and/or shortages related to the global pandemic. Speculative forces are expected to remain a key driver going into 2021. This webinar will evaluate commodity markets that experienced significant price movements in the second half of 2020, including Arabica and cocoa, while highlighting key factors to look for over the next six months
Despite the loss in foodservice demand, the food industry showed a relatively high level of resilience to the impact of COVID-19 disruptions, for the mere reason that food remains essential. Consequently, markets such as the fruit and vegetable market experienced a considerable spike in demand, as the health and wellness trend became more critical than ever. In this webinar, we will look into what's in store for the fruit and vegetable market category in 2021, amid other market drivers beyond COVID-19.
Could coal be the answer to global plastics shortagesPlatts
The CTO/MTO process
CTO/MTO Economics
Current Status – Projects
Impact on the global ethylene feedstock slate
Impact on PE and PP fundamentals
China’s shortage of ethylene and propylene
Difficulty of importing olefins
Demand growth for PE and PP
Naphtha crackers too dependent on imports
Coal price advantage
CTO process proven successful in 2011
Detailed look at Europe's petrochemical markets.
Page 3 - Benzene - Rise like a phoenix -- will benzene climb out of crude wreckage?
Page 11 – Polyethylene - Rise in EU tariffs to constrain -- but not quash -- PE imports from Gulf
Page 15 – Paraxylene - European paraxylene to look for US demand in 2015 as Asia cuts imports
Page 20 – PVC - Consolidation, acquisition look set to bring changes to European PVC pricing
Page 23 – Naphtha - Naphtha prices a double-edged sword for European industry
Page 29 – Butadiene - New capacity to squeeze European butadiene prices further
Page 32 – SBR - Struggling currency, crude oil collapse to weigh on Europe's SBR market
Page 40 – MTBE - US MTBE turnarounds set to keep European market tight in Q1
Page 44 – Methanol - European methanol outlook to remain volatile
Global Petrochemical Prices Plunged 18% in December.
Platts Global Petrochemical Index (PGPI) Prices explains how the $3-trillion-plus global petrochemicals market fell another 18% in December -- the biggest month-over-month drop since November 2008 -- as energy and naphtha prices continued to slide.
The PGPI reflects a compilation of the daily price assessments of physical spot market ethylene, propylene, benzene, toluene, paraxylene, low-density polyethylene (LDPE) and polypropylene as published by Platts and is weighted by the three regions of Asia, Europe and the United States.
Read the full analysis in the presentation.
Platts Senior Editor, Nandita Lal, recently presented this slide deck at Platts Vienna Forum during the EPCA conference last month.
Key takeaways include:
- Cracking light feedstocks changes C2, C3 trade flows
– means EU C3 could stay at premium
- Higher EU propylene prices could suck in imports
- US, Asia eye PDH expansions to fill propylene
shortage
- Europe on high end of propylene investment curve
- Like with ethylene, CTO/MTO are big question mark
Petrochemical Prices: Is Ethylene Becoming The BearPlatts
Platts Senior Analyst, Hetain Mistry, recently presented this slide deck at Platts Forum in Vienna during the EPCA conference.
Key takeaways include:
- The US to outweigh the Middle East in terms of cracker
additions over the next ten years
- The US will become a truly global PE export player
- The Middle East will maintain its dominance in PE exports
- CTO/MTO additions to add to global PE surpluses
- Western Europe’s cracker industry will continue to suffer and options of sustainability are far and few between
- Western Europe will see its PE import requirement rise
Want to improve and protect your margins? Does plastic packaging make up a large percentage of your costs?
If you answered yes; you need to be aware of the changes to the plastics supply chain and how those changes will affect the Fast Moving Consumer Goods industry.
Shale gas is rapidly changing the supply equation for ethane – a key raw material in the production of plastics.
As ethane producers take advantage of low cost shale gas, plastic markets will become oversupplied – increasing your packaging supply options. This will allow you to negotiate more cost effective contracts.
Platts’ analysts have created a mini-guide to help you understand how the shale gas revolution will affect your business. And what you need to know to protect your margins. Download your copy now.
http://bit.ly/1D0z1H6
The shale revolution in the US not only provided low-cost ethane to revive the US industry, it has also given hope of economic survival to European producers that can crack gas instead of liquid naphtha.
The question remains however: will the shift to ethane feedstocks pay off?
This Analysis Feature from Platts.com explores the some of the key issues faced by European producers wanting to crack ethane.
Global petrochemical prices fell 1% in AugustPlatts
The Platts Global Petrochemical Index reflects a compilation of the daily price assessments of physical spot market ethylene, propylene, benzene, toluene, paraxylene, low-density polyethylene (LDPE) and polypropylene as published by Platts and is weighted by the three regions of Asia, Europe and the United States.
Petrochemical prices fall linked to new Chinese capacityPlatts
Petrochemicals prices - 2 EH, NBA - see a sharp decline in the light of on new Chinese capacity.
What does thi mean for future prices and availability?
platts petrochemical prices Coal to-olefins technology in china could soon fl...Platts
CTO Coal to Olefins Boom
Polyethylene, also called polythene, is the world’s most widely used plastic, primarily used to make films used in packaging and plastic bags. Polyethylenes consume more than half of the world’s supply of ethylene, derived from various petrochemical olefins.
Shale Gas, Crude and Their Impact on Global Petrochemicals - December 2013Platts
NGL production and impact on petrochemicals in the US and globally
Cheal gas spurs expansions and new products across the US
Potential herdles to new steam cracker prokects
negative impact on cracking
10 year forecast including Benteks pricing model
growth of US crude phenomenon
why it matters
Accpac to QuickBooks Conversion Navigating the Transition with Online Account...PaulBryant58
This article provides a comprehensive guide on how to
effectively manage the convert Accpac to QuickBooks , with a particular focus on utilizing online accounting services to streamline the process.
Discover the innovative and creative projects that highlight my journey throu...dylandmeas
Discover the innovative and creative projects that highlight my journey through Full Sail University. Below, you’ll find a collection of my work showcasing my skills and expertise in digital marketing, event planning, and media production.
3.0 Project 2_ Developing My Brand Identity Kit.pptxtanyjahb
A personal brand exploration presentation summarizes an individual's unique qualities and goals, covering strengths, values, passions, and target audience. It helps individuals understand what makes them stand out, their desired image, and how they aim to achieve it.
Cracking the Workplace Discipline Code Main.pptxWorkforce Group
Cultivating and maintaining discipline within teams is a critical differentiator for successful organisations.
Forward-thinking leaders and business managers understand the impact that discipline has on organisational success. A disciplined workforce operates with clarity, focus, and a shared understanding of expectations, ultimately driving better results, optimising productivity, and facilitating seamless collaboration.
Although discipline is not a one-size-fits-all approach, it can help create a work environment that encourages personal growth and accountability rather than solely relying on punitive measures.
In this deck, you will learn the significance of workplace discipline for organisational success. You’ll also learn
• Four (4) workplace discipline methods you should consider
• The best and most practical approach to implementing workplace discipline.
• Three (3) key tips to maintain a disciplined workplace.
The world of search engine optimization (SEO) is buzzing with discussions after Google confirmed that around 2,500 leaked internal documents related to its Search feature are indeed authentic. The revelation has sparked significant concerns within the SEO community. The leaked documents were initially reported by SEO experts Rand Fishkin and Mike King, igniting widespread analysis and discourse. For More Info:- https://news.arihantwebtech.com/search-disrupted-googles-leaked-documents-rock-the-seo-world/
RMD24 | Debunking the non-endemic revenue myth Marvin Vacquier Droop | First ...BBPMedia1
Marvin neemt je in deze presentatie mee in de voordelen van non-endemic advertising op retail media netwerken. Hij brengt ook de uitdagingen in beeld die de markt op dit moment heeft op het gebied van retail media voor niet-leveranciers.
Retail media wordt gezien als het nieuwe advertising-medium en ook mediabureaus richten massaal retail media-afdelingen op. Merken die niet in de betreffende winkel liggen staan ook nog niet in de rij om op de retail media netwerken te adverteren. Marvin belicht de uitdagingen die er zijn om echt aansluiting te vinden op die markt van non-endemic advertising.
Unveiling the Secrets How Does Generative AI Work.pdfSam H
At its core, generative artificial intelligence relies on the concept of generative models, which serve as engines that churn out entirely new data resembling their training data. It is like a sculptor who has studied so many forms found in nature and then uses this knowledge to create sculptures from his imagination that have never been seen before anywhere else. If taken to cyberspace, gans work almost the same way.
Memorandum Of Association Constitution of Company.pptseri bangash
www.seribangash.com
A Memorandum of Association (MOA) is a legal document that outlines the fundamental principles and objectives upon which a company operates. It serves as the company's charter or constitution and defines the scope of its activities. Here's a detailed note on the MOA:
Contents of Memorandum of Association:
Name Clause: This clause states the name of the company, which should end with words like "Limited" or "Ltd." for a public limited company and "Private Limited" or "Pvt. Ltd." for a private limited company.
https://seribangash.com/article-of-association-is-legal-doc-of-company/
Registered Office Clause: It specifies the location where the company's registered office is situated. This office is where all official communications and notices are sent.
Objective Clause: This clause delineates the main objectives for which the company is formed. It's important to define these objectives clearly, as the company cannot undertake activities beyond those mentioned in this clause.
www.seribangash.com
Liability Clause: It outlines the extent of liability of the company's members. In the case of companies limited by shares, the liability of members is limited to the amount unpaid on their shares. For companies limited by guarantee, members' liability is limited to the amount they undertake to contribute if the company is wound up.
https://seribangash.com/promotors-is-person-conceived-formation-company/
Capital Clause: This clause specifies the authorized capital of the company, i.e., the maximum amount of share capital the company is authorized to issue. It also mentions the division of this capital into shares and their respective nominal value.
Association Clause: It simply states that the subscribers wish to form a company and agree to become members of it, in accordance with the terms of the MOA.
Importance of Memorandum of Association:
Legal Requirement: The MOA is a legal requirement for the formation of a company. It must be filed with the Registrar of Companies during the incorporation process.
Constitutional Document: It serves as the company's constitutional document, defining its scope, powers, and limitations.
Protection of Members: It protects the interests of the company's members by clearly defining the objectives and limiting their liability.
External Communication: It provides clarity to external parties, such as investors, creditors, and regulatory authorities, regarding the company's objectives and powers.
https://seribangash.com/difference-public-and-private-company-law/
Binding Authority: The company and its members are bound by the provisions of the MOA. Any action taken beyond its scope may be considered ultra vires (beyond the powers) of the company and therefore void.
Amendment of MOA:
While the MOA lays down the company's fundamental principles, it is not entirely immutable. It can be amended, but only under specific circumstances and in compliance with legal procedures. Amendments typically require shareholder
As a business owner in Delaware, staying on top of your tax obligations is paramount, especially with the annual deadline for Delaware Franchise Tax looming on March 1. One such obligation is the annual Delaware Franchise Tax, which serves as a crucial requirement for maintaining your company’s legal standing within the state. While the prospect of handling tax matters may seem daunting, rest assured that the process can be straightforward with the right guidance. In this comprehensive guide, we’ll walk you through the steps of filing your Delaware Franchise Tax and provide insights to help you navigate the process effectively.
chapter 10 - excise tax of transfer and business taxation
Shale Against Prices 14
1. OIL
JOHN KINGSTON
Global Director of News
AGAINST PRICES The US shale oil revolution is a
6 insight DECEMBER 2014
Th is time, it’s diff erent.
It’s an old phrase, one that can be
dragged out in all sorts of situations. It’s
also wrong … a lot.
So the question as 2014 comes to a close
is whether the recent precipitous decline
in the price of oil and oil products is just
a short-term decline, soon to be reversed
as the world bounces back to a more
solid $100/b future, or whether this is
the end of a commodity super cycle that
– with a few up and down aberrations –
lifted the price of oil from an infl ation-adjusted
all-time low in early 1999 to
that $100-plus level in the fi rst half of
this year, with an even bigger spike a few
years ago.
It was at a meeting of the US chapter of
the International Association for Energy
Economics in 1999, a few months after
oil had started to climb, that I fi rst heard
the declarations: we are at the start of a
“super cycle” in oil markets, and maybe
broader commodity markets, and it may
run for 15 years.
Do the math: the 15 years is up.
Break points
So let’s assume that cycle is over. If so,
it’s been a wild ride. In early 1999, the
price of oil hit its lowest infl ation-adjusted
level ever and Th e Economist
published a cover story in March that
proclaimed the world was “Drowning In
Oil.” Little did the magazine know the
bottom had already been reached a
month earlier. It climbed steadily to its
all-time high in July 2008, and
plummeted on the back of the Great
Recession. But by February 2009 the
rise had resumed, peaking out earlier
this year.
Precisely when the cycle ended – if it did
– is not necessarily easy to determine. In
a speech given at Platts’ Benposium
conference in June, Peter Tertzakian of
Arc Financial walked through his view of
the way these cycles work. What are key
are “break points,” which he said come
about only once every few generations.
Tertzakian saw a break point in that July
2008 peak, because it accelerated a trend
toward lower demand.
Th at’s not enough to reverse all the
trends contributing to the busting of a
classic example of high prices and
technological innovation spurring
previously unimaginable increases
in production. But can the boom
continue despite the drop in
global prices, driven by further
technological development, or are
we set to see some unravelling as
margins evaporate?
2. OIL
Th e ‘break point’ was not just the
unconventional drilling methods, but the endless
innovation that the industry kept bringing to the
sector, getting more production out of a smaller
number of rigs.
DECEMBER 2014 insight 7
15-year cycle. Th ere are other break
points needed – or more specifi cally,
what Tertzakian called “magic bullets”
– and the biggest one is obvious: the
boom in unconventional drilling.
But it isn’t enough to simply declare that
it’s all related to soaring US and
Canadian production, and that’s that.
Th e type of trends that Tertzakian talks
about – “the industry does not roll over,
it innovates,” Tertzakian said at
Benposium – can be seen in the
Baker Hughes rig count.
According to Baker
Hughes’
worldwide rig count, rigs operating
in the US in October 2011 stood at
a little over 2,000. Th ree years later,
it was a bit more than 1,900, and
production of natural gas and all
petroleum liquids – crude, LPG and
condensate – had surged. Th e “break
point” was not just the
unconventional drilling methods, but
the endless innovation that the
industry kept bringing to the sector,
getting more production
out of a smaller number of rigs.
It wasn’t easy. As Tertzakian noted, “it
took a fi ve-fold increase in the price of
oil to make this change.” Actually, when
we look back on the 1999-2014 oil
super cycle, we see a lot bigger
rise than that. Platts’ Dated
Brent assessment bottomed out at
$9.62-$9.66 on February 9, 1999. When
it hit its 2008 peak on
July 3, 2008, it stood at
$144.21-$144.23, and
had risen by a factor of
almost 15. Even if
you throw out the
craziness leading up
to the July 2008 peak
and its subsequent
breathtaking fall,
and instead look at a
more sustained rise,
Brent peaked out in
May of this year at
about $115, an
increase of about 12
times the 1999 low.
New super cycle
Ed Morse and his
team at Citi have
talked often about the
end of the commodity
super cycle,
declaring it over in
2013. Th e scenario its analysts lay out as
to the causes of these types of swings are
similar to those expressed by Tertzakian:
the price of a commodity (or multiple
commodities) rises as demand increases
due to economic growth; the growth in
demand outstrips the world’s ability to
supply the commodity, and the price
increases; demand is slowed by the
higher prices while capital fl ows into
expanding the supply of the commodity;
and eventually, supply and demand are
brought back into equilibrium, or
maybe a new disequilibrium, with
supply now exceeding demand.
Prices plummet, investment dries
up, demand is spurred by those
new lower prices (just look at
year-on-year fi gures on US auto sales
and see how bigger vehicles are reviving
on the back of cheaper gasoline), and
the ground is set for a new super cycle.
When does the current low price cycle
end then? Tertzakian is holding to his
15-year time frame. And even though
prices did rebound strongly after their
fi nancial crisis-inspired collapse, he still
sees the current weaker cycle as starting
in 2008. So that puts the end of the
current cycle at 2023.
Th at view isn’t unanimous. Earlier this
year, a much talked about story in
Bloomberg Business Markets about
Phibro chief Andy Hall noted that his
fund within Phibro, Astenbeck Capital
Management, had bet heavily on an
eventual increase in prices, with
signifi cant positions taken as far out on
the curve as 2019 (and at levels believed
to be higher than the $80 prevailing in
early November for 2019 prices.) Going
long that far out in a market others are
speaking of as being in the early days of
a 15-year down cycle is a gutsy call.
“
”
3. OIL
8 insight DECEMBER 2014
But the group’s belief appears to be that
the payoff will come down the road …
way down the road.
Astenbeck/Hall’s views on the
sustainability of the shale boom that has
led to current imbalances is shared by
others. Steve Kopits, who runs his own
advisory fi rm, Princeton Energy Advisors,
has spent extensive time studying the cost
of oil services and the ability of
companies drilling for oil to handle those
rising levels. His conclusion? Th ey can’t.
“Unless capital effi ciency improves
dramatically, conventional non-OPEC
oil production is likely to take a
substantial hit, on the order of 1 million
b/d (in 2014),” he wrote in a piece for
Platts’ blog, Th e Barrel. “Nor will the
unwind end in 2014.”
Kopits has identifi ed the factors in a
price-constrained squeeze to work
something like this: the world’s economy
can’t sustain a Brent price signifi cantly
above $110/b, but capital expenditure
costs have been rising at about 10% per
year, a fi gure he gets from what he calls
Barclay’s “indispensable” EP surveys.
Inevitably, there’s a squeeze on
production.
But some recent comments in a UBS
research report on Halliburton show
that the question of high costs vs. slower
drilling can’t be answered nicely and
neatly. In the report, analyst Angie
Sedita said Halliburton had been trying
to get through price increases for
fracking jobs in the US despite the slide
in commodity prices and “no customer
has pushed back” on the increases “nor
come back for any relief.” “Halliburton
remarked that the customers are well
aware that the frack price increases are
for rapidly increasing logistical costs,”
she wrote.
Not only that, but UBS said Halliburton
had “built into its recent round of price
increases the recovery of two more
quarters of cost escalations.” And yet
despite this weak upstream landscape,
Halliburton executives had told UBS that
if WTI oil prices stayed near their current
level of about $80/barrel, the reaction in
cutbacks wouldn’t be immediate; “they
would begin to cut back activity in the
(second half of 2015).”
So if this overview is correct, which side
is right? Th e Ed Morse/Citi/Tertzakian
argument would be that technological
improvements are proceeding at such a
pace that even with higher oil services
costs, and with relatively weak
commodity prices, drilling will continue
for now and supply will continue to rise.
(Citi’s view is that a lower price will only
cut the rate of growth in US production,
but total output will increase.) Th e
Kopits/Hall outlook would probably say
that a rising level of production cannot,
for any sustained period of time,
coincide with lower commodity prices
and rising oil service costs. Put all that
together and an end to the surge in US
output is inevitable.
Tough time
Th e idea that both schools could be right
– we’re headed for a nasty price decline,
followed by a shakeout that tightens
world supplies – can be seen in reading a
statement by energy economist Philip
Verleger in his September monthly report.
Th e much-discussed price war of recent
months, symbolized best by Saudi moves
to not cut supplies and concurrently cut
its own prices relative to international
4. OIL
MAJOR ENERGY COMPANIES’ CASH FROM OPERATIONS AND USES OF CASH
Uses of cash (sum of capital expenditures, dividends, and net share repurchases)
Cash from operations
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
DECEMBER 2014 insight 9
benchmarks, could lead to a bevy of
consequences that could tighten supplies
in the long run, Verleger wrote. “Shale
fi eld developers in the United States may
reduce capital expenditures ... developers
of high-cost oil sands projects in Canada
might cut expansion and slow operations
... oil production in Venezuela might
collapse as the country’s economic
problems spread to the oil industry ...”
And so on. Th ose sorts of actions might
very well lead to a successful bet by
going long down the price curve into
2019. But it could be a tough time for
investors in the meantime.
One thing that the Kopits/Hall school of
thought often points to is cash fl ow. As the
US Energy Information Administration
pointed out in a study released last
summer, for the year ending March 31,
“cash from operations for 127 major oil
and natural gas companies totaled $568
billion, and major uses of cash totaled
$677 billion.” Th e gap was fi lled with
borrowing and asset sales. A net increase in
borrowing, in particular, “has made up at
least 20% of cash since 2012.”
Th ose sorts of numbers from a presumably
neutral observer like the EIA echo more
passionate statements like those of Arthur
Berman, a long-time shale skeptic. In an
interview earlier this year with the website
ZeroHedge, Berman laid out his
arguments. “Investors are starting to ask
questions, such as where are the earnings
and the free cash fl ow? Shale companies
are spending a lot more than they are
earning, and that has not changed. Th ey
are claiming all sorts of effi ciency gains on
the drilling side that has distracted
inquiring investors for awhile. I was
looking through some investor
presentations from 2007 and 2008 and
the same companies were making the
BILLION $
800
700
600
500
400
same effi ciency claims then as they are
now. Th e problem is that these impressive
gains never show up in the balance sheets.”
Berman’s comments about investor
concern certainly show up in the SP
Small Cap Energy index. A relatively
weak performance didn’t just start this
year with the decline in prices. Total
three-year annualized returns on the
index as of October 31 stood at 4.81%.
For the broader SP 600 index of small
cap companies, that return stood at
almost 20%. (Standard Poor’s Dow
Jones Indices, like Platts, is a unit of
McGraw Hill Financial.)
Th is is a battle that will play out over
several years; maybe 15. But simply
looking into next year, the numbers
clearly favor the short-term bearish
perspective of Citi.
Th ere are many numbers in the monthly
International Energy Agency report, but
the quickest snapshot is the OPEC call.
Th at number is derived by the IEA
estimating global petroleum demand;
subtracting expected non-OPEC supply;
and then subtracting expected OPEC
NGL output. What’s left is the “call,” the
amount of crude OPEC needs to
produce to keep inventories unchanged.
In the group’s October report, the call
for all of 2015 was estimated at 29.3
million b/d; it was less than 29 million
b/d in the fi rst and second quarter.
Meanwhile, OPEC in September
produced 30.6 million b/d and 30.3
million b/d in October, according to
Platts monthly survey, the group’s output
boosted from levels earlier this year by a
turnaround in Libyan production that
had fallen to less than 100,000 b/d
because of the country’s chaos. A rise in
Libyan output to 1 million b/d would
have gotten you very long odds at a
bookie shop and shockingly would have
paid off . (And then in early November,
more trouble dropped Libyan output by
about 400,000 b/d in a matter of days.)
Without changes in output or demand,
that sort of imbalance is going to make
one side of the current debate look very
smart. But it is a long-term play, and it
may take awhile to determine if it really
is diff erent this time.
In 2014 dollars, annuallized values from quarterly reports.
Source: US Energy Information Administration
companies may close the gap
by incurring debt and selling assets