Setting the Scene
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HSBC UK's Head of Agriculture Allan Wilkinson's presentation to the 'Setting Your CAP' event at Stoke Rochford Hall, Lincs, on Thursday 23 October 2014.
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Setting the Scene
- 1. PUBLIC HSBC AGRICULTURE SETTING THE SCENE FOR 2015 23 October 2014 Allan Wilkinson Head of Agriculture allanwilkinson@hsbc.comMobile 07836 536150
- 2. PUBLIC GLOBAL FOOD PRICE INDICES Source: Food Price Index, UN FAO
- 3. PUBLIC WORLD POPULATION RANKING - MILLIONS Source: US Census Bureau International Database
- 5. PUBLIC UK TOTAL INCOME FROM FARMING (Real Terms) Source DEFRA 8 May 2014 2.8 3.4 3.2 3 2.99 3.1 4.5 4.6 4.4 5.5 4.8 5.5 2.76 2.9 2.9 3 3.3 3.6 3.47 3.48 3.24 3.33 2.9 2.66 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 TIFF Exchange Rate Direct Support Exchange Rate € to £ * *Estimate £ Billions 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
- 6. EVOLUTION OF THE CAP PUBLIC
- 7. Long term supply Source: Savills Research PUBLIC
- 8. A SECOND YEAR OF GLOBAL GRAIN SURPLUS-stocks not a concern for spot markets PUBLIC Source: FAO
- 9. GLOBAL WHEAT SUPPLY AND DEMAND – a second strong year but major segmentation PUBLICSource: USDA
- 10. KEY GLOBAL WHEAT PRODUCERS – quantity not an issue PUBLIC Source: EU Commission,Statistics Canada, ABARES,USDA,IGC
- 11. KEY WHEAT IMPORTERS –as suspected, there is not a consistent trend from ChinaPUBLIC Source: IGC
- 12. EU WHEAT SUPPLY AND DEMAND –exports rather than stocks should be the current focus PUBLIC Source: EU Commission
- 13. UKRAINE IS ONE OF THE KEY EXPORTERSUKRAINE CROP PRODUCTION / EXPORT POTENTIAL IS HUGE, ESSENTIAL LOGISTICS ARE ADEQUATE, PERFECT LOCATION PUBLIC Source:USDA
- 14. GRAIN PRODUCTION UPS AND DOWNS PUBLIC Source: UkrAgroConsult
- 15. UKRAINE: CORN EXPORT BY DESTINATION 2013/14 PUBLICSource: UkrAgroConsult
- 16. UKRAINE HAS 15 MAJOR PORTS ON THE BLACK SEA AND ANOTHER 3 ON THE AZOV SEA PUBLIC Source: UkrAgroConsult
- 17. PUBLIC Long Term FundamentalsManaging Volatility-80-60-40-20020406080Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5 Profit
- 18. PUBLIC Long Term Fundamentals Managing Volatility -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Output Price High unit costs Med unit costs Low unit costs
- 19. PUBLIC
- 20. PUBLIC HSBC’S TOP 10 TIPS IN 2014 Few farms operate at their true economic optimum The difference between the best and worst was large –now its enormous Does expansion increase/decrease profitability + cash? Benchmarking and Budgeting are VITAL The biggest variable in a business is YOU The customer and consumer are king Charles Darwin was right about dinosaurs –be adaptable Know who your competitor is, what they do, and why? Collaborate with your neighbour VOLATILITY IS HERE TO STAY
- 21. PUBLIC THANK YOU
- 22. PUBLICHSBC AGRICULTURE SETTING THE SCENE FOR 2015 23 October 2014 Allan Wilkinson Head of Agriculture allanwilkinson@hsbc.comMobile 07836 536150