This document discusses using modeling to link data across scales from individual animal transmission experiments to epidemiological models of national outbreaks. It describes how understanding transmission between individual animals informs biosecurity practices on farms and how understanding transmission between farms informs control policies. The document also discusses using hierarchical approximate Bayesian computation and Monte-Carlo Markov-Chain modeling to capture system variability and improve accuracy by incorporating individual herd and animal disease dynamics derived from experiments into regional between-farm models.

1. Scaling up from one-to-one animal
transmission experiments to epidemiological
models of national outbreaks
Transmission between individual animals is best
understood from controlled experiments
Biosecurity practice best informed by understanding what
happens within farms
Control Policy best informed by understanding what
happens between farms
Modelling has the power to link data across scales
EuFMD Session P4 David Schley 11:00 Tuesday 30th October 2012

2. Risk of undetected transmission
Any animal infectious before
any animal shows clinical signs
Advanced warning of at least 1 day
Hidden infectiousness for at least 1 day
EuFMD Session P4 David Schley 11:00 Tuesday 30th October 2012

3. Hierarchical
Approximate Bayesian Computation
Monte-Carlo Markov-Chain
Regional between-farm model
incorporating individual herd dynamics
and experimentally derived individual
animal disease:
• Captures system variability
• Potentially improve model accuracy
• Provides insights into previous
outbreaks
EuFMD Session P4 David Schley 11:00 Tuesday 30th October 2012