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Session 1.2 bas van ruijven-iiasa
The document discusses the impacts of COVID-19 on energy demand and its potential implications for long-term climate mitigation. It outlines the goals of estimating energy demand shocks, assessing behavioral changes, and performing climate simulations. The findings suggest that while demand changes due to COVID-19 won't fully achieve climate-stabilizing pathways, they can still lead to significant reductions in energy demand and CO2 emissions by 2025 and 2030.
Session 1.2 bas van ruijven-iiasa
- 1. Please consider theenvironment before printing this slide deck Icon from all-free-download.com, Environmental icons 310835, by BSGstudio, license CC-BY COVID-19 impacts on energy demand can help reduce long-term mitigation challenge Bas van Ruijven OECD Expert Workshop, 13 April 2021 vruijven@iiasa.ac.at Kikstra, J., Vinca, A., Lovat, F., Boza-Kiss, B., van Ruijven, B. J., Wilson, C., Rogelj, J., Zakeri, B., Fricko, O., & Riahi, K. (2021). COVID-19 impacts on energy demand can help reduce long-term mitigation challenge. In Review https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-155224/v1
- 2. Main goals 1. Estimatethe shock on energy demand activities in 2020 2. Assess first order effect of retaining behavioral change from COVID-19-crisis on energy demand and emissions. Kikstra, J., Vinca, A., Lovat, F., Boza-Kiss, B., van Ruijven, B. J., Wilson, C., Rogelj, J., Zakeri, B., Fricko, O., & Riahi, K. (2021). COVID-19 impacts on energy demand can help reduce long-term mitigation challenge. In Review https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-155224/v1
- 3. 3 Approach Steps for assessingCOVID-19 related changes in the energy system 1. Qualitative bottom-up assessment of activity levels during pandemic 2. Illustrative recovery scenarios of varying persistence of activity changes 3. Energy demand pathways and GDP sensitivity analysis (annual timesteps until 2025) 4. Perform climate mitigation simulations Kikstra et al., 2021, In Review Data collection and literature assessment on a sub-sectoral (activity) level, for transport, residential and commercial buildings, and industry. Kikstra, J., Vinca, A., Lovat, F., Boza-Kiss, B., van Ruijven, B. J., Wilson, C., Rogelj, J., Zakeri, B., Fricko, O., & Riahi, K. (2021). COVID-19 impacts on energy demand can help reduce long-term mitigation challenge. In Review https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-155224/v1
- 4. 4 Approach Steps for assessingCOVID-19 related changes in the energy system 1. Qualitative bottom-up assessment of activity levels during pandemic 2. Illustrative recovery scenarios of varying persistence of activity changes 3. Energy demand pathways and GDP sensitivity analysis (annual timesteps until 2025) 4. Perform climate mitigation simulations Kikstra et al., 2021, In Review Kikstra, J., Vinca, A., Lovat, F., Boza-Kiss, B., van Ruijven, B. J., Wilson, C., Rogelj, J., Zakeri, B., Fricko, O., & Riahi, K. (2021). COVID-19 impacts on energy demand can help reduce long-term mitigation challenge. In Review https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-155224/v1
- 5. 5 Approach Steps for assessingCOVID-19 related changes in the energy system 1. Qualitative bottom-up assessment of activity levels during pandemic 2. Illustrative recovery scenarios of varying persistence of activity changes 3. Energy demand pathways and GDP sensitivity analysis (annual timesteps until 2025) 4. Perform climate mitigation simulations Kikstra et al., 2021, In Review Kikstra, J., Vinca, A., Lovat, F., Boza-Kiss, B., van Ruijven, B. J., Wilson, C., Rogelj, J., Zakeri, B., Fricko, O., & Riahi, K. (2021). COVID-19 impacts on energy demand can help reduce long-term mitigation challenge. In Review https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-155224/v1
- 6. 6 Approach Steps for assessingCOVID-19 related changes in the energy system 1. Qualitative bottom-up assessment of activity levels during pandemic 2. Illustrative recovery scenarios of varying persistence of activity changes 3. Energy demand pathways and GDP sensitivity analysis (annual timesteps until 2025) 4. Perform climate mitigation simulations Kikstra et al., 2021, In Review using MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM Kikstra, J., Vinca, A., Lovat, F., Boza-Kiss, B., van Ruijven, B. J., Wilson, C., Rogelj, J., Zakeri, B., Fricko, O., & Riahi, K. (2021). COVID-19 impacts on energy demand can help reduce long-term mitigation challenge. In Review https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-155224/v1
- 7. 7 Illustrative shock-and-recovery scenarios Kikstraet al., 2021, In Review Teleworking and individual and longer trips, new age of tourism online retail More home-stay, while also larger/safer work spaces Economic impact & glocalization Back to normal, trends in individualization Back to historic demand trends Economic impact on production
- 8. 8 Illustrative shock-and-recovery scenarios Kikstraet al., 2021, In Review Large reduction in commuting and long-distance trips, promoted alternative transport Intensification of teleworking, while reductions in work floor space Repurposing in production Some level of teleworking, reduced commuting, rediscovery of non- motorized trips, online retail More home-stay, while no change to non-residential demand Small reduction and restructuring in production Individualization Back to normal
- 9. 9 Illustrative shock-and-recovery scenarios Kikstraet al., 2021, In Review Rail Cars Public transport Aviation 31% -7% 23% -17% Rail Cars Public transport Aviation 6% 3% 4% -4% Rail Cars Public transport Aviation 3% 24% 3% 11% No structural change
- 10. 10 Results • Demand changesrelated to COVID alone will not bring us close to climate-stabilizing pathways. Kikstra et al., 2021, In Review The possible reductions are still substantial: • By 2025: Final energy demand reductions* of 1 to 36 EJ/yr • By 2030: Cumulative CO2 emissions reductions* of 14 to 45 GtCO2 *Compared to a no-COVID baseline. 1.5 C pathways COVID recovery pathways Kikstra, J., Vinca, A., Lovat, F., Boza-Kiss, B., van Ruijven, B. J., Wilson, C., Rogelj, J., Zakeri, B., Fricko, O., & Riahi, K. (2021). COVID-19 impacts on energy demand can help reduce long-term mitigation challenge. In Review https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-155224/v1
- 11. Kikstra et al.,2021, In Review 11 Results: mitigation challenge 1.5℃ Back to pre-COVID patterns 3.5 trillion USD lower need until 2030 Lower renewable electricity upscaling pace Higher energy demand practices Lower energy demand practices Lower transport electrification pace Differences in sectoral CO2. Kikstra, J., Vinca, A., Lovat, F., Boza-Kiss, B., van Ruijven, B. J., Wilson, C., Rogelj, J., Zakeri, B., Fricko, O., & Riahi, K. (2021). COVID-19 impacts on energy demand can help reduce long-term mitigation challenge. In Review https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-155224/v1
- 12. 12 Conclusion Recovering from thepandemic with low energy demand practices (travel, work, consumption, production) reduces climate mitigation challenges. Kikstra et al., 2021, In Review Kikstra, J., Vinca, A., Lovat, F., Boza-Kiss, B., van Ruijven, B. J., Wilson, C., Rogelj, J., Zakeri, B., Fricko, O., & Riahi, K. (2021). COVID-19 impacts on energy demand can help reduce long-term mitigation challenge. In Review https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-155224/v1
- 13. Bas van Ruijven ResearchGroup Leader, Sustainable Service Systems Energy, Climate, and Environment Program International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Laxenburg, Austria vruijven@iiasa.ac.at www.iiasa.ac.at This project received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 821471 (ENGAGE) Thank you very much for your attention!