The document provides an overview and analysis of the financial services sector. It discusses the industries that make up the sector, including banks, capital markets, and insurance. Key metrics like market capitalization and performance are presented. An analysis of the business cycle, Porter's 5 Forces, and supply and demand is given. Economic factors that influence the sector like interest rates, GDP, and unemployment are examined. Financial projections and the valuation of the sector relative to the S&P 500 are analyzed. The recommendation is to remain neutral given the sector's underperformance but lower relative valuation currently compared to its median.
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Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for December. This month we explore a variety of factors potentially driving markets and evaluate the risks and rewards lying beneath the surface.
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Read| The latest issue of The Challenger is here! We are thrilled to announce that our school paper has qualified for the NATIONAL SCHOOLS PRESS CONFERENCE (NSPC) 2024. Thank you for your unwavering support and trust. Dive into the stories that made us stand out!
Operation “Blue Star” is the only event in the history of Independent India where the state went into war with its own people. Even after about 40 years it is not clear if it was culmination of states anger over people of the region, a political game of power or start of dictatorial chapter in the democratic setup.
The people of Punjab felt alienated from main stream due to denial of their just demands during a long democratic struggle since independence. As it happen all over the word, it led to militant struggle with great loss of lives of military, police and civilian personnel. Killing of Indira Gandhi and massacre of innocent Sikhs in Delhi and other India cities was also associated with this movement.
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5. Largest Companies
Berkshire Hathaway
471.65B
JP Morgan Chase & Co
366.134B
Bank of America Corporation
296.679B
Wells Fargo and Company
268.398B
Citigroup
170.284B
Goldman Sachs Group
83.163B
American Express
83.421B
US Bancorp
81.844B
9. Business Cycle
● Financials show top performance during growth and maturity phases
● High interest rates improve outlook
● As cycle progresses, financials lose due to lower spending
10. Porter’s 5 Forces
Barrier to Entry Moderate Difficult to raise necessary capital to gain entry
Highly supervised
Small banks able to offer more
Supplier Power Moderate Policy has large impact
Customer can change very easily
Buyer Power Moderate Buy and supplies capital
As rates increase, may increase power due to more
competition for money
Substitution Moderate Many small companies taking aim at segments
Increased competition and low rate products
Rivalry High Highly competitive
Small banks have different regulations
Fees a big topic
Similar products
11. Supply/Demand
● Consumers are people, companies, governments
● Drivers:
○ Interest rates
○ Inflation
○ Economic conditions
○ Government regulations
● Overall financial sector is second largest
13. Factors of High Influence
● Economic Conditions in US (S&P 500)
● Interest Rates
● Consumer Confidence
● US Gross Domestic Product
● Unemployment
● Regulations, Policy and Taxes
33. Recommendation
● Recommendation is to remain “neutral”
● Current position is overweight
● Previously underperformed the S&P… BUT
○ Current relative multiples are lower than their median
○ Current S&P multiples are higher than their median
● Expect the financial sector to outperform S&P
moving forward