Science, evidence and data in government presentation
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Presentation by Sir Mark Walport at the annual conference of the Royal Statistical Society on 3 September 2013.
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Science, evidence and data in government presentation
- 1. Science, evidence and data in government Sir Mark Walport, Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government
- 2. 2 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 Sir Harry Campion • First director of the Central Statistical Office, forerunner to the current ONS. Was director from 1941 until his retirement in 1967 • Helped to organise the creation of the United Nations Statistical Office in 1946 • President of the Royal Statistical Society from 1957 to 1959. In 1996 left a bequest, with money going to the Campion Fellowship and the RSS Historical Fund • Other posts included President of the International Statistical Institute and Vice-President of the Manchester Statistical Society (1905 – 1996) © National Portrait Gallery
- 3. 3 • Knowledge translated to economic advantage • Wellbeing, health & resilience – infrastructure • The right science for emergencies • Underpinning policy with evidence • Advocacy and leadership for science Government Office for Science Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 © iStockPhoto
- 4. 4 1. Aging, cities, demography 2. Energy, climate change and the natural environment 3. The economy, the City, the world in trade 4. Manufacturing, materials science, innovation 5. Data, infrastructure, identity 6. Principles of government decision-making: risk, resilience, contingency Themes of GO-Science work All activities need to be underpinned by evidence, analysis and data Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013
- 5. 5 Bringing a multidisciplinary approach to the challenges facing government Dave Ramsden 1,350 Economists Tony O’Connor 450 Operational Researchers Jil Matheson 1,600 Statisticians Jenny Dibden 950 Social Researchers Mark Walport 12,000 Scientists & Engineers Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013
- 6. 6 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 A network of Chief Scientific Advisers Prof Chris Whitty DFID Prof Dame Sally Davies DH Prof Robin Grimes FCO Carole Willis DfE Prof John Perkins BIS Prof David Mackay DECC Prof Rod Smith DfT Dr Bill Gunnyeon DWP Dr James Richardson HMT Prof Bernard Silverman Home Office Prof Peter Freer Smith Forestry C. Dr Andrew Wadge FSA Rebecca Endean MoJ Dr David Bench HSE Prof Julia Slingo Met Office Prof Vernon Gibson MOD Prof Ian Boyd DEFRA Prof Bernadette Hannigan NI Interim CSA Prof Muffy Calder Scotland
- 7. • Data • Information • Knowledge • Application 7 From data to knowledge to society Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 GrowthResilience Policy & service delivery Societal Benefit
- 8. 8 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 Vemurafenib – oral targeted therapy for treatment of metastatic malignant melanoma in patients whose tumors carry the BRAFV600E mutation. Approximately 60% of melanoma patients have tumors that carry this mutation From data to knowledge to society © Plexxikon Inc
- 9. • Defining & refining the question • Data collection • Analysis • Visualisation • Inference Information 9 From data to information using statistics Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 Application of Statistics at all levels Communication
- 10. • Science is about asking questions • New techniques allow us to ask new questions • New ways of collecting data allow us to ask new questions 10 Defining & refining the question Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 © iStockPhoto
- 11. 11 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 • One of the oldest continuous agronomic experiments in the world – started in 1843 Old ways of collecting data Herbicides and fertilisers Herbicides but no fertilisers No herbicides Rothamsted’s Broadbalk Winter Wheat Experiment
- 12. • Data is being collected in different ways • Users submit photos and locations of sightings to a team who refer them on to the Forestry Commission, which is leading efforts to stop the disease's spread with the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) 12 Chalara spread: 1992-2012 New ways of collecting data Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013
- 13. 13 • Developed by Boston's Mayor's Office of New Urban Mechanics Built environment • Street Bump uses crowd sourcing to improve neighbourhood streets by collecting road condition data while they drive • Utilises two of the phone’s sensors, its accelerometer and GPS. The sensors detect “bumps” that the City maps Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013
- 14. 14 Long-term climate data Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 mean (1961-1990) = 0 Source: Met Office Hadley Centre (2013) Global historical surface temperature anomalies
- 15. 15 New technology – gigantic scale Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 © Crown copyright Met Office From data from observations To forecasting winds, rainfall, temperature
- 16. Geoposition data 16 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 Source: Sir Stuart Peach, Cambridge Conference 2013 Tactical level analysis: Ditch & Flow in Helmand Tribal Distributions Population density Population movements Terrain Elevation Data Topographic Data Combined Operating Picture Oceanographic Data Hydrographic Data Meteorological Data Aeronautical Data Geodetic Data CrawlStalkWalk
- 17. Analysing big data • Total Scottish Population 5.2M • People with diabetes : 251,132 (4.9%) • People with Type 1 DM : ~27,000 (0.5%) • All patients nationally are registered onto a single register; the SCI-DC register • SCI-DC used in all 38 hospitals • Nightly capture of data from all 1043 primary care practices across Scotland Courtesy of Andrew Morris 17 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 Harnessing ICT: A national diabetes system for Scotland
- 18. 18 PercentageofPatients Data recorded within the previous 15 months http://www.diabetesinscotland.org.uk/Publications/SDS%202010.pdf Courtesy of Andrew Morris Scottish Diabetes Survey – over 90% capture of key variables since 2007 Recording of Key Biomedical Markers Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 Accountability of services
- 19. Diabetes Care 2008Diabetic Medicine 2009 Courtesy of Andrew Morris Improved clinical outcomes 19 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013
- 20. 20 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 Demography Future of Demographic Change project: • A growing population • An ageing population • Local variation at all scales • Increasing diversity • Demographic changes will have an impact Graphic by The Guardian, 2010. Source data: ONS, Population by Local Authority, 2010 UK population change 1999-2009 by local authority
- 21. Polar area diagram by Florence Nightingale illustrating causes of mortality during the Crimean War (1857) 21 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 Turning data into information
- 22. The UK may be considered to be a small emitter compared to some other countries 22 Source: The Carbon Map Tonnes CO2 per capita Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 Visualising emissions data
- 23. But looking at historical emissions tells a different story 23 Source: The Carbon Map Tonnes CO2 per capita Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 Visualising emissions data
- 24. Source: gapminder.org Visualising data – Hans Rosling 24 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013
- 25. 1.Communication and misuse 2. Privacy 3. Skills 25 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 Challenges AndyHedges / CC BY-SA 3.0
- 26. 26 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 • Need for us all to be clear in communicating • Especially where:- - the science or statistics are complicated - there are uncertainties - big press interest - emergency situation • Direct language and clear diagrams – but without losing the nuances Communication: uncertainty and getting our message across
- 27. 27 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 • ‘Cone of uncertainty’ diagram – line shows most likely path of hurricane and the uncertainty displayed by the white region indicating a 2 in 3 chance of containing the path • But the most likely path provides false sense of security to people living away from the black line • For Hurricane Irene in 2011 a ‘spaghetti plot’ of possible paths were shown on TV, each path arising from a different forecasting model • Communicates uncertainty of the path better than the ‘cone of uncertainty’ Communication: uncertainty and getting our message across
- 28. High emissions scenarios project warming of around 4°C by the end of the century, strong mitigation scenarios limit this to 2°C 28 • Even in the strong mitigation scenario we are still committed to further climate change for the next 2 to 3 decades, due to inertia in the climate system • How much the climate warms after mid- century depends on how long global action on mitigation is delayed Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 Uncertainty of predictions
- 29. Risk vs Hazard Radiation Dosage Chart Sources: InformationisBeautiful.net BBC, Guardian Datablog, Mayo Clinic data: bit.ly/radiationchart Micro-Sievert (µSv) 0.1 µSv 1.0 µSv 10 µSv 100 µSv 1000 µSv 0.1 – Eating a banana 0.4 – Natural radiation in human body 40 – Flight from New York to LA 70 – Living in a stone, brick or concrete building for a year 100 – Chest X-ray 250 – Release limit for a nuclear power plant for a year 400 – Yearly dose per person from food per year 1000 – EPA yearly limit on radiation exposure to member of public 1.0 – Using CRT monitor for a year 3.5 – Extra dose from one day in average town near the Fukushima plant 5.0 – Dental X-ray 10 – Background dose received by average person on an average day 29 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013
- 30. 30 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 Source: http://understandinguncertainty.org/micromorts Risk communication – Micromort • Comparing small lethal risks (acute risks) difficult • Micromort: 1 in a million chance of death • Translates risk into easily comparable units Walk Cycle Motor bike Car Micromorts per 100 miles travelled
- 31. 31 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 • There are many “publics” • Public values play a key part in how people respond • Predictable “fright factors” – feelings of lack of control e.g. multinational companies’ monopoly of a new technology • Need to build “trust” (impartiality/credibility of the commentator) • Acknowledge and respect the “feelings” of those responding Communication: understand your audience
- 32. Public values on energy Summary of core public values on energy system change 32 Source: UKERC Transforming the UK Energy System: Public Values, Attitudes and Acceptability • 73% of respondents agree Britain should reduce energy use • 79% of respondents say UK should reduce use of fossil fuels. Predominant reason was unsustainable nature of fossil fuels and environmental harm • 83% of respondents are fairly or very concerned that in the next 10-20 years electricity and gas will become unaffordable for them Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 • To understand public preferences need to understand public values • Public preferences change with context, but values and principles guide decisions and engagement
- 33. 33 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 Misuse of statistics: Visualising data not propaganda • Figures are factually correct • But infographic is misleading • From the North South Wales Ministry of Health, March 2013 Source: Guardian Data Blog
- 34. 34 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 Misuse of statistics: safeguards • The UK Statistics Authority – Whitehall’s statistics watchdog • Chairman Andrew Dilnot can comment on perceived misuse of official statistics • Groups such as Straight Statistics, Sense About Science and online blogs (e.g. Ben Goldacre’s Bad Science) now work to highlight misuse of evidence • Promoting a culture of open access and providing links to referenced studies will allow for people to scrutinise the statistics • Improving the accessibility of the ONS website • Improve mathematics and statistics in education (as suggested in the 2012 CST letter on STEM Education)
- 35. 35 • Personal information is individual & precious to each one of us – it’s vital that we treat it properly • A balancing act…between the right to privacy and the necessity to hold and share data • A framework is needed: - to protect individuals - build & maintain confidence - facilitate research Privacy Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 Wellcome / BY-NC-ND 2.0
- 36. 36 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 Skills pipeline Source: DfE Mathematics teacher recruitment shortfall/surplus
- 37. 37 CST work: The Age of Algorithms Schools Universities Jobs • Recruit more teachers trained in computer science • Embrace Continuing Professional Development (CPD) • Incorporate logic, algorithms and statistics into post-16 mathematics courses • Government should sponsor new Computer Literacy Campaign highlighting learning opportunities for individuals, schools and businesses • Cooperation between computer science departments and private sector to develop multidisciplinary courses for practical application of data science • Create a National Centre to promote advanced research and translational work in algorithms and application of data science Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013
- 38. 38 We all need to work together Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 Universities Industry
- 39. 39 How can we help each other Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 Central Intelligence Agency
- 40. Every effort has been made to trace copyright holders and to obtain their permission for the use of copyright material. We apologise for any errors or omissions in the included attributions and would be grateful if notified of any corrections that should be incorporated in future versions of this slide set. We can be contacted through enquiries@bis.gsi.gov.uk . Science, evidence and data in government Presentation made to the Royal Statistical Society annual conference, September 2013 Sir Mark Walport, Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government
Editor's Notes
- In January 1941, the Central Statistical Office (CSO) was established to co-ordinate all statistics brought before the War Cabinet. Harry Campion became its first director. He remained its director – not counting some secondments to the United Nations – until his retirement in 1967 The CSO became established as a permanent feature of government focusing on the development of national income accounts.. After WWII, the United Nations Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) invited a number of prominent national statisticians, including Harry Campion, to form a 'Nuclear’ Statistical Commission. It made recommendations for the terms of a permanent commission on statistics; the organisation of a statistical organisation; the existing statistical activities conducted by the League of Nations ; the relationship between the statistical activities of the UN and specialized agencies . He later became its Chairman for 1951 and 1953. After the war, Campion helped to organise the creation of the United Nations Statistical Office . He was President of the Royal Statistical Society from 1957-1959, and in 1996 he left a bequest. These funds have enabled both the Campion Fellowship – awarded to Fellows of the Society for a project towards the development, use or exposition of statistics on the economic or social well-being of the population – and the RSS Historical Fund , which supports the conservation and restoration of the Society archives and book collection, to be established. Other posts he held included President of the International Statistical Institute and Vice-President of the Manchester Statistical Society .
- The Top Priorities for GO-Science.
- Winter wheat has been sown and harvested on all or part of the field every year since then Original aim was to test the effects of various combinations of inorganic fertilizers (supplying the elements Nitrogen, Phosphorous, Potassium, Sodium and Magnesium) and different organic manures on the yield of winter wheat. A control strip has received no fertilizer or organic manures since 1843 Originally the weeds were controlled by hand weeding but later by periodically bare-fallowing and cultivating different parts of the field in different years. From the mid-1950s, herbicides have been used. Two major modifications were made from 1968: (1) introduction of modern, short-strawed cultivars. (2) crops other than wheat being grown on the experiment, so that yields of wheat grown continuously could be compared to those of wheat grown in rotation. Tile drains under each treatment strip are used these to collect and measure the nutrients in the water that leached through the soil into the drains Untreated wheat stays relatively constant with a yield of 1 tonne per hectare The improved cultivars, cultivations and control of pests, diseases and weeds have demonstrated that with the right combination of treatments the wheat yield can be increased to 9 tonnes per hectare
- Ash dieback, caused by the fungus Chalara fraxinea, was found in the UK in October outside of plantations and nurseries in East Anglia, raising fears of a repeat of Dutch elm disease which killed 25 million mature elms in the 1970s and 80s. In an attempt to map and help prevent the spread of the disease across the country, a team of developers and academics worked through the weekend to create an app that smartphone owners can use to report suspected cases of infection. Infected ash trees are recognisable by lesions on their bark, dieback of leaves at the tree's crown, and leaves turning brown – though experts say the arrival of autumn makes the latter harder to accurately spot. zThe AshTag app for IOS and Android devices allows users to submit photos and locations of sightings to a team who will refer them on to the Forestry Commission, which is leading efforts to stop the disease's spread with the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra).
- HadCRUT4 is a gridded dataset of global historical surface temperature anomalies relative to a 1961-1990 reference period. Data are available for each month since January 1850, on a 5 degree grid. The dataset is a collaborative product of the Met Office Hadley Centre and the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia. Brief description of the data The gridded data are a blend of the CRUTEM4 land-surface air temperature dataset and the HadSST3 sea-surface temperature (SST) dataset. The dataset is presented as an ensemble of 100 dataset realisations that sample the distribution of uncertainty in the global temperature record given current understanding of non-climatic factors affecting near-surface temperature observations. This ensemble approach allows characterisation of spatially and temporally correlated uncertainty structure in the gridded data, for example arising from uncertainties in methods used to account for changes in SST measurement practices, homogenisation of land station records and the potential impacts of urbanisation.
- Geospatial information: Provides focused briefing support Catalogue, organise and understand existing data Warn of environmental and other risks Provide feedback Improve government effectiveness and efficiency Opportunities Existing partnerships can be enhanced Collaboration and Burden Sharing. Integration to add value Dissemination in time is critical Integration of Geospatial Foundation Intent to integrate Geo Foundation data, products and services to provide a more complete picture of the operating environment. Tactical level product. Original requirement and specification developed for JNAC (Joint Narcotics Analysis Centre at OWOB) for poppy eradication. Information was required on all ditches (main & field / widths & depths) in the Nad ‘Ali and Marjah (west of LKG). 2 versions produced (Analysis-classified & Plans-unclass). Stereo source used for capture to the nearest meter. This allowed assumptions to be made of those involved in opium trafficking and IED component smuggling in using the ditches as routes in and out of the area by concealed walking, stalking or crawling, and their travel times. Includes tree lines. Time / distance can be estimated e.g. walking at 4 kmph; stalking at 2.5 kmph and crawling at 1 kmph. This product has been broadened for Theatre use and used to plan alternative routes in the intensely irrigated areas using gap crossing bridging equipment, particularly by quad bikes. Widths from 1 to 32m. Depths from 0.5m to >1.5m. Each area contains approx 6,000 ditches & 4,000 culverts. Areas cover are Nad ‘Ali, Marjah N & S, CAT, Babaji and Bolan Desert (west of LKG). A further RFI has been received (May 10) from HQTFH to complete Ditch Analysis for the full TFH AO. Completed Oct 10.
- Future of Demographic Change project: How might global demographic trends impact on the UK? The UK National Population Projections indicate: Continued growth for the whole UK from 62.7 million people at the end of 2010 to 73.2 million by the end of 2035 The age structure will become gradually older the median age rising from 39.7 years in 2010 to 42.2 years in 2035 Local variation at all scales Patterns of demographic change at ‘sub-national’ level continue to be highly variable. Increasing diversity Net inward-migration projected beyond 2060 means the UK will continue to become more ethnically diverse UK national issues: Demographic changes will have an impact on all areas of public expenditure Recent birth-spike will have knock-on effects through the system Key policy areas will all be effected by demographic change, but policy decisions made will also drive future change in demographic patterns This interaction of policy and wider trends limits the accuracy of future forecasts ONS - “Beyond 2011” working to develop the options for future population and socio-demographic data collection. Data reliability becomes more difficult to ensure affordably at smaller scales – some areas are subject to greater ‘churn’ than others. Data definitions need to be better specified to improve consistency of primary data. Greater strategic use of UK patterns of demographic change can provide a more robust analytical baseline to inform current and future policy needs. International demographic data can be better used to further UK strategic interests. Use of systems modelling could enhance understanding of demographic impacts and reduce unintended consequences in policy decision making – this concept to be tested as part of the project.
- This map shows country sizes according to historical CO2 emissions (1850–2007) Historical (or 'cumulative') emissions are relevant because CO2 is a long-lived atmospheric gas. Europe and the US dominate historical emissions, having released around half the CO2 ever emitted. For historical emissions Great Britain ranks 5th out of 187 countries (~6 % of global historical emissions)
- Representative Concentration Pathway or RCP
- Yet it is important to keep hazards in perspective…how does Fukushima compare?
- David Spiegelhalter developed this graph showing micromorts for type of travel
- Need to look beyond public preferences because these are likely to change depending on context, particularly considering highly unfamiliar issues where perceptions and preferences are not yet fully formed. Examine the values and principles that people draw on to guide decisions and engagement. Efficiency and not wasting – in sum, being more efficient (doing more with less) and minimising waste and overall energy usage is almost universally seen as positive. Protection of the environment and nature – in sum, being environmentally conscious and respectful of nature through minimising intrusive and destructive processes. Ensuring security through reliability, affordability, availability and safety – in sum, making sure the energy system is safe, reliable and accessible to citizens, both in terms of personal affordability and national availability. Autonomy and power – in sum, being mindful of the importance of autonomy and freedom both at national and personal levels. Social justice and fairness – in sum, developing energy systems in ways that are open, transparent and fair and attentive to the effects on people’s abilities to lead healthy lives. Improvement and quality – in sum, thinking in terms of long term trajectories, ensuring changes represent improvement and considering their implications for quality of life. Also, tensions exist between values (how people think things should be), and world views (experiences or perceptions of how things currently are). Values also interconnect with people’s life experiences and social commitments (e.g. their relationships with others, their form of work).
- This infographic from New South Wales shows the increase in the number of nurses - which is factually correct. The only problem is that you get a very different sense of scale from studying the image than you do if you just glance at it. Four stick people represent 43,000 nurses - so why are 28 more stick people used to represent an increase of just 3,000 nurses? That's a 700% infographic explosion to show a 7% increase. We can only assume someone leant on the paste key.
- Privacy The use of datasets containing personal information is vital for a lot of research in the medical and social sciences, but poses considerable challenges for information governance because of the potential to compromise individual privacy. Citizens have a legitimate interest in safeguarding their privacy by avoiding personal data being used to exploit, stigmatise or discriminate against them or to infringe on their personal autonomy (see box 3.4).159 The legal framework for the “right to respect for private and family life” is based on article 8 of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR)160 for member states of the Council of Europe. Some aspects of privacy rights are codified by the EU Data Protection Directive (95/46/EC) and implemented in the UK by the Data Protection Act 1998 (DPA). There is a live issue with the EU Data Protection Regulation, specifically that the research community are very concerned that amendments proposed by the rapporteur of the LIBE committee will prevent or severely impair scientific research studies using personal data. BIS and DH are working with MoJ (who are in the lead on negotiations) to address. Series of public perception flashpoints e.g. 2 CDS 25m items of child benefit data (2007), Google Maps, Street View.
- Hopefully this presentation has demonstrated the obvious importance of analysis and presenting data well The RSS brings together a strong group of talented statisticians Tell me: What can you do for me and what can I do for you? Data without analysis and effective communication is useless We need each other