Scenari e dati - Fabrizio Traù

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Barbieri & Associati Dottori Commercialisti - Bologna

Fabrizio Traù - Centro Studi Confindustria - 18° Meeting Nazionale ACEF - 27 settembre 2018 a Bologna

Economy & Finance

1
Meeting Nazionale ACEF 2018
Idee e Azioni per il Cambiamento

L’INDUSTRIA ITALIANA
NELLA FASE ATTUALE
Fabrizio Traù
Centro Studi Confindustria
Bologna, 27 settembre 2018

3
Source: CSC calculations on Oxford economics data.
Una solida base manifatturiera
1 China 30.2
2 United States 18.3
3 Japan 8.0
4 Germany 6.0
5 South Korea 2.9
6 India 2.8
7 Italy 2.3
8 France 2.1
9 United Kingdom 1.8
10 Brazil 1.7
11 Indonesia 1.5
12 Canada 1.5
13 Mexico 1.4
14 Russia 1.3
15 Spain 1.3
World
Ranking
Country
Global
Manufacturing VA
share in 2017
(Current $)

4
Un elevato grado di diversificazione
Indice di diversificazione del valore aggiunto manifatturiero,
2016, dollari correnti
0,90
0,92
0,94
0,96
0,98
1,00
China
Japan
USA
ITALY
India
Canada
Germany
UK
France
Spain
Indonesia
Mexico
SouthKorea
Russia
Brazil
1 3 2 7 6 12 4 9 8 15 11 13 5 14 10
Rank in global manufacturing value added share under each country.
Source: CSC calculations on Oxford economics data.

5
Una qualità delle esportazioni molto alta
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Italy
Germany
France
Spain
Eurozone
Index, 2000=100
Ratio between unit values and export prices.
Source: CSC calculations on Eurostat data.
Rapporto tra valori medi unitari e prezzi all’esportazione

6
L’Italia è spesso tra i primi tre top exporter
Trade Performance Index, 2016 rank
1° 2° 3°
Transport equipment Germany Italy Netherlands
Non-electronic machinery Germany Italy China
Chemicals Germany France Netherlands
Basic manifactures* Germany China Italy
Miscellaneous manufacturing** Germany Italy Netherlands
Electronic components Germany Italy Netherlands
IT & consumer electronics Hungary Singapore Malaysia
Processed food Germany France Netherlands
Wood products Germany Finland Sweden
Textiles China Italy Germany
Clothing Italy China Turkey
Leather products Italy China India
*Miscellaneous non-ferrous base metal, ferrous base metal, glass and pottery.
**Optical goods, medical instruments, photograph appliances, musical instruments, toys, games,
measure control instruments, weapons and ammunition.
Source: CSC calculations on UNCTAD-WTO data.

7
Composizione % delle esportazioni italiane
%, current values.
*not included coke and refined petroleum products.
Source: CSC calculations on ISTAT data.
1991 2016
Machinery and equipment 17,9 19,1
Basic metals and fabricated metal products 9,2 11,3
Electrical equipment 6,2 5,6
Computer, electronic and optical products 6,4 39,7 3,4 39,5
Chemical 6,1 7,1
Pharmaceutical products 1,3 5,5
Rubber and plastics 3,5 10,9 3,9 16,5
Motor vehicles 8,3 8,8
Other transport equipment 3,1 11,4 3,5 12,4
Wearing apparel 7,3 5,0
Leather and related products 5,8 5,0
Textiles 5,5 2,6
Furniture 3,4 21,9 2,4 14,9
Food, beverages and tobacco 5,4 8,1
Other manufacturing 4,4 3,9
Other non-metallic mineral products 4,2 2,6
Paper, printing and reproduction of recorded media 1,6 1,7
Wood products 0,6 0,4

8
Gli investmenti nella manifattura
Tasso di investimento nella manifattura (investimenti/valore aggiunto),
dollari correnti
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
France Italy United States
Germany Japan United Kingdom
Source: CSC calculations on Oxford economics data.

Fonte: elaborazioni e stime CSC su dati ISTAT e Indagine Rapida.
Fatturato industriale
Italia, indici mensili in volume e destagionalizzati,
medie mobili centrate a tre termini, gennaio 2007=100

Innovare, sempre (digitalizzare)
Sviluppare il capitale umano
Arrestare la fuga dei giovani
Globalizzare
Gestire il posizionamento nelle catene del valore
Spostare la produttività più in alto

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What's a worker’s market? Job quality and labour market tightness

Labour Market Information Council | Conseil de l’information sur le marché du travail

In a tight labour market, job-seekers gain bargaining power and leverage it into greater job quality—at least, that’s the conventional wisdom. Michael, LMIC Economist, presented findings that reveal a weakened relationship between labour market tightness and job quality indicators following the pandemic. Labour market tightness coincided with growth in real wages for only a portion of workers: those in low-wage jobs requiring little education. Several factors—including labour market composition, worker and employer behaviour, and labour market practices—have contributed to the absence of worker benefits. These will be investigated further in future work.

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Vicinity Jobs’ data includes more than three million 2023 OJPs and thousands of skills. Most skills appear in less than 0.02% of job postings, so most postings rely on a small subset of commonly used terms, like teamwork. Laura Adkins-Hackett, Economist, LMIC, and Sukriti Trehan, Data Scientist, LMIC, presented their research exploring trends in the skills listed in OJPs to develop a deeper understanding of in-demand skills. This research project uses pointwise mutual information and other methods to extract more information about common skills from the relationships between skills, occupations and regions.

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After this second you should be able to: Explain the main determinants of demand for any mineral product, and their relative importance; recognise and explain how demand for any product is likely to change with economic activity; recognise and explain the roles of technology and relative prices in influencing demand; be able to explain the differences between the rates of growth of demand for different products.

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AntoniaOwensDetwiler

"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia." Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments. My study abroad in Bali, Indonesia, inspired this research topic as I noticed how globalization is changing the culture of its people. I learned their language and way of life which helped me understand the beauty and importance of cultural preservation. I believe we could all benefit from learning new perspectives as they could help us ideate solutions to contemporary issues and empathize with others.

Bridging the gap: Online job postings, survey data and the assessment of job ...

Labour Market Information Council | Conseil de l’information sur le marché du travail

OJP data from firms like Vicinity Jobs have emerged as a complement to traditional sources of labour demand data, such as the Job Vacancy and Wages Survey (JVWS). Ibrahim Abuallail, PhD Candidate, University of Ottawa, presented research relating to bias in OJPs and a proposed approach to effectively adjust OJP data to complement existing official data (such as from the JVWS) and improve the measurement of labour demand.

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Tax System, Behaviour, Justice, and Voluntary Compliance Culture in Nigeria -...

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Financial Assets: Debit vs Equity Securities.pptx

Writo-Finance

financial assets represent claim for future benefit or cash. Financial assets are formed by establishing contracts between participants. These financial assets are used for collection of huge amounts of money for business purposes. Two major Types: Debt Securities and Equity Securities. Debt Securities are Also known as fixed-income securities or instruments. The type of assets is formed by establishing contracts between investor and issuer of the asset. • The first type of Debit securities is BONDS. Bonds are issued by corporations and government (both local and national government). • The second important type of Debit security is NOTES. Apart from similarities associated with notes and bonds, notes have shorter term maturity. • The 3rd important type of Debit security is TRESURY BILLS. These securities have short-term ranging from three months, six months, and one year. Issuer of such securities are governments. • Above discussed debit securities are mostly issued by governments and corporations. CERTIFICATE OF DEPOSITS CDs are issued by Banks and Financial Institutions. Risk factor associated with CDs gets reduced when issued by reputable institutions or Banks. Following are the risk attached with debt securities: Credit risk, interest rate risk and currency risk There are no fixed maturity dates in such securities, and asset’s value is determined by company’s performance. There are two major types of equity securities: common stock and preferred stock.  Common Stock: These are simple equity securities and bear no complexities which the preferred stock bears. Holders of such securities or instrument have the voting rights when it comes to select the company’s board of director or the business decisions to be made.  Preferred Stock: Preferred stocks are sometime referred to as hybrid securities, because it contains elements of both debit security and equity security. Preferred stock confers ownership rights to security holder that is why it is equity instrument <a href="https://www.writofinance.com/equity-securities-features-types-risk/" >Equity securities </a> as a whole is used for capital funding for companies. Companies have multiple expenses to cover. Potential growth of company is required in competitive market. So, these securities are used for capital generation, and then uses it for company’s growth. Concluding remarks Both are employed in business. Businesses are often established through debit securities, then what is the need for equity securities. Companies have to cover multiple expenses and expansion of business. They can also use equity instruments for repayment of debits. So, there are multiple uses for securities. As an investor, you need tools for analysis. Investment decisions are made by carefully analyzing the market. For better analysis of the stock market, investors often employ financial analysis of companies.

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Scenari e dati - Fabrizio Traù

1. 1 Meeting Nazionale ACEF 2018 Idee e Azioni per il Cambiamento

2. L’INDUSTRIA ITALIANA NELLA FASE ATTUALE Fabrizio Traù Centro Studi Confindustria Bologna, 27 settembre 2018

3. 3 Source: CSC calculations on Oxford economics data. Una solida base manifatturiera 1 China 30.2 2 United States 18.3 3 Japan 8.0 4 Germany 6.0 5 South Korea 2.9 6 India 2.8 7 Italy 2.3 8 France 2.1 9 United Kingdom 1.8 10 Brazil 1.7 11 Indonesia 1.5 12 Canada 1.5 13 Mexico 1.4 14 Russia 1.3 15 Spain 1.3 World Ranking Country Global Manufacturing VA share in 2017 (Current $)

4. 4 Un elevato grado di diversificazione Indice di diversificazione del valore aggiunto manifatturiero, 2016, dollari correnti 0,90 0,92 0,94 0,96 0,98 1,00 China Japan USA ITALY India Canada Germany UK France Spain Indonesia Mexico SouthKorea Russia Brazil 1 3 2 7 6 12 4 9 8 15 11 13 5 14 10 Rank in global manufacturing value added share under each country. Source: CSC calculations on Oxford economics data.

5. 5 Una qualità delle esportazioni molto alta 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Italy Germany France Spain Eurozone Index, 2000=100 Ratio between unit values and export prices. Source: CSC calculations on Eurostat data. Rapporto tra valori medi unitari e prezzi all’esportazione

6. 6 L’Italia è spesso tra i primi tre top exporter Trade Performance Index, 2016 rank 1° 2° 3° Transport equipment Germany Italy Netherlands Non-electronic machinery Germany Italy China Chemicals Germany France Netherlands Basic manifactures* Germany China Italy Miscellaneous manufacturing** Germany Italy Netherlands Electronic components Germany Italy Netherlands IT & consumer electronics Hungary Singapore Malaysia Processed food Germany France Netherlands Wood products Germany Finland Sweden Textiles China Italy Germany Clothing Italy China Turkey Leather products Italy China India *Miscellaneous non-ferrous base metal, ferrous base metal, glass and pottery. **Optical goods, medical instruments, photograph appliances, musical instruments, toys, games, measure control instruments, weapons and ammunition. Source: CSC calculations on UNCTAD-WTO data.

7. 7 Composizione % delle esportazioni italiane %, current values. *not included coke and refined petroleum products. Source: CSC calculations on ISTAT data. 1991 2016 Machinery and equipment 17,9 19,1 Basic metals and fabricated metal products 9,2 11,3 Electrical equipment 6,2 5,6 Computer, electronic and optical products 6,4 39,7 3,4 39,5 Chemical 6,1 7,1 Pharmaceutical products 1,3 5,5 Rubber and plastics 3,5 10,9 3,9 16,5 Motor vehicles 8,3 8,8 Other transport equipment 3,1 11,4 3,5 12,4 Wearing apparel 7,3 5,0 Leather and related products 5,8 5,0 Textiles 5,5 2,6 Furniture 3,4 21,9 2,4 14,9 Food, beverages and tobacco 5,4 8,1 Other manufacturing 4,4 3,9 Other non-metallic mineral products 4,2 2,6 Paper, printing and reproduction of recorded media 1,6 1,7 Wood products 0,6 0,4

8. 8 Gli investmenti nella manifattura Tasso di investimento nella manifattura (investimenti/valore aggiunto), dollari correnti 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 France Italy United States Germany Japan United Kingdom Source: CSC calculations on Oxford economics data.

9. Fonte: elaborazioni e stime CSC su dati ISTAT e Indagine Rapida. Fatturato industriale Italia, indici mensili in volume e destagionalizzati, medie mobili centrate a tre termini, gennaio 2007=100

10. Innovare, sempre (digitalizzare) Sviluppare il capitale umano Arrestare la fuga dei giovani Globalizzare Gestire il posizionamento nelle catene del valore Spostare la produttività più in alto

Editor's Notes

Nonostante la profondità e la durata della recessione, la manifattura italiana ha mostrato una straordinaria resilienza, e l’Italia è ancora la seconda potenza manifatturiera in Europa e la settima nel mondo
Il sistema manifatturiero italiano è uno dei più diversificati a livello mondiale. L’indice è calcolato a livello dei 4 digit manifatturieri. Concettualmente è il reciproco di un Herfindahl, che è un indice di concentrazione  1 - H, dove H è Σ (Yi / Ym)2 , dove Y è il valore aggiunto, i è il settore i-esimo e m il totale della manifattura. Se Y sta tutto in un settore l’indice è 1, se è equidistribuito l’indice è 1/n (n= numero settori). In questo caso si tratta di un indice di diversificazione (contrario della concentrazione) costruito sulla base di un Herfindahl normalizzato (che varia tra 0 e 1).
Il valore dei beni esportati a parità di prezzo all’esportazione aumenta per l’Italia più che negli altri grandi concorrenti europei, ovvero la composizione dell’export va verso beni di valore più elevato. Le imprese esportatrici hanno accresciuto la qualità delle loro produzioni (e il loro potere di mercato) attraverso costanti processi di upgrading
imprese manifatturiere esportatrici 1° posto al mondo nell’ “Abbigliamento” e “Cuoio pelletteria e calzature” 2° posto al mondo in “Mezzi di trasporto” e “Meccanica non elettronica”, “Prodotti diversi”, “Meccanica elettrica e Elettrodomestici”, “Tessili”; 3° posto al mondo in Prodotti manufatti di base. Indicatori quarta rivoluzione industriale: in termini di abbonamenti a schede Sim M2M (machine‑to‑machine), una tecnologia essenziale per attivare l’intelligenza artificiale (IA) tramite la comunicazione, scambio di dati informazioni e comandi tra dispositivi/apparecchiature connesse, l’Italia si colloca al 6° posto in ambito G20, secondo gli ultimi dati disponibili riferiti a giugno 2017, mentre la Cina ha registrato il 44% degli abbonamenti a schede Sim M2M a livello mondiale tre volte la quota degli Stati Uniti. In termini di intensità di robot sul valore aggiunto manifatturiero, l’Italia è al 6° posto (2016).
imprese manifatturiere esportatrici 1° posto al mondo nell’ “Abbigliamento” e “Cuoio pelletteria e calzature” 2° posto al mondo in “Mezzi di trasporto” e “Meccanica non elettronica”, “Prodotti diversi”, “Meccanica elettrica e Elettrodomestici”, “Tessili”; 3° posto al mondo in Prodotti manufatti di base. Indicatori quarta rivoluzione industriale: in termini di abbonamenti a schede Sim M2M (machine‑to‑machine), una tecnologia essenziale per attivare l’intelligenza artificiale (IA) tramite la comunicazione, scambio di dati informazioni e comandi tra dispositivi/apparecchiature connesse, l’Italia si colloca al 6° posto in ambito G20, secondo gli ultimi dati disponibili riferiti a giugno 2017, mentre la Cina ha registrato il 44% degli abbonamenti a schede Sim M2M a livello mondiale tre volte la quota degli Stati Uniti. In termini di intensità di robot sul valore aggiunto manifatturiero, l’Italia è al 6° posto (2016).
La spesa per investimento in rapporto all’output è rimasta stabilmente elevata: il tasso di investimento in % del valore aggiunto è stato del 23,6% nel 2017, nettamente al di sopra di quelli della Germania, del Giappone e del RegnoUnito.

Scenari e dati - Fabrizio Traù

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Scenari e dati - Fabrizio Traù

Editor's Notes