The document summarizes key factors in analyzing economic growth in BRIC countries over the past 10 years and projections for the future: 1) Labor force growth is estimated using UN projections for growth in the working age population between 15-64 years old. 2) Capital accumulation is modeled as each country investing at a constant rate over time based on starting capital proportional to output. 3) Technical progress and productivity growth is modeled as countries converging to the technological frontier, currently assumed to be the US, through a combination of potential and conditions.

2. BRICs 10 years
The BRICs 10 Years On: Halfway Through The Great Transformation
Labor Force Growth. We continue to use the United Nations’ projections for growth in the working age
population (those aged 15-64) as an approximation for labor force growth.
Capital Accumulation. We assumed that each country began with a capital stock proportional to
output and that each country invested at a constant rate over time.
Technical Progress. We model technical progress (or total-factor productivity (TFP) growth) as a process
of catch-up or convergence to the technological frontier, which we assume to be the US. For each
country, the convergence process is modelled as a combination of potential and conditions.

3. New demand across the globe
T
India
$ 14 billion
USA
$ 25 billion
UK
$ 14 billion Germany
$ 21 billion
France
$ 25 billion China
$ 52 billion
Australia
$ 12 billion

4. Changing patterns of incremental demand
Comparing the breakdown of aggregate incremental demand by country in 2008 and 2018
provides insight into the changes that will occur in the global economy over the decade
Global
economy
over the
decade
India is likely to increase its share of total
incremental demand in all categories.
Outside of China, India will become the
dominant source of demand growth
China dominates incremental demand
today, and it will continue to do so in the
future, although its share looks set to
decline slightly over the decade
Russia and Brazil are the biggest losers
of market share in all sectors except
roads, reflecting Brazil’s slower pace of
income growth and urbanization
The N-11’s total share of incremental
demand is essentially steady over the
decade Within the N- 11 on its own,
relative shares will remain largely
unchanged, with Vietnam gaining
and Korea losing
The GCC’s share of incremental demand will rise in electricity
and air passengers, and decline in all other categories

5. Performance
Exhibit : 1 Exhibit : 2
4.3
2.5 3.5 4.5 4.3
2.5
2.4
4.4 1.8
2.8 2.4
4.4
2.0 2.0
3.0
5.0
2.0 2.0
2.4
4.4
1.8
2.8
2.4
4.0
15
20
30
40
50
60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1 2 3 4 5 6
US UK Europe Asia Other
Exhibit : 3 Exhibit : 4
21%
30%28%
12%
9%
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Scenario 4
Scenario 4
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2013
2014
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2015
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MSCI
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Infrastructure
Industries
Private Equity
Service sector

6. Thank you