Downloaded 65 times
More Related Content
Similar to Room to Breathe: The BA's role in project estimation
Room to Breathe: The BA's role in project estimation
- 1. Room to Breathe TheBA Role in Project Commitments Robert T. Merrill, Principal uFunctional LLC
- 2. You’re about tolearn how to… • Facilitate estimates using The Stretch • Talk about targets, estimates, and commitments, and shape realistic expectations • Prepare and use a requirementsbased project history for parametric estimation
- 3. Signs of suffocation • • • • • • • Scheduleslips Cost overruns Forced overtime Half-finished features scrapped Late-lifecycle tasks cut short Poor quality Net negative value
- 4. In the beginningwas the ship date, and the requirements were without form, and void… Inception 1:2
- 5. The Stretch 100 1.Visual Aid 90 75 2. Outcome 3. Team and Tools 50 4. Suggest crazy low number 5. Suggest crazy high number 25 10 6. Repeat until you have a curve 0 Estimate to achieve Outcome
- 6. Product Concept GreenRide promotescarpooling. A user admin creates employee accounts. Employees enter their address, work start and end times, and vehicle info. Employees see everyone on a map, marked as being a carpool member or not.
- 7. Product Concept Employees canjoin a carpool or start their own. Employees mark days when they carpooled, and see how much they saved on fuel and CO2 emissions.
- 8. Product Concept Team: Twostrong ASP.NET, HCJ (HTML/ CSS/ Javascript) and SQL Server programmers. % 100 50 0 0 MO Prepare a Stretch chart 9 for yourself. Then I’ll lead you through an estimate.
- 9.
- 10.
- 11.
- 12.
- 13.
- 14.
- 15. The Stretch 100 90 75 8 mo 4mo 50 25 10 0 2 mo 10% 50% 90%
- 16. The Stretch 100 90 75 8 mo 4mo 50 25 10 0 2 mo 10% 4 months 50%, 2-8, 80% 50% 90%
- 17. Expressing Estimates For theproposed scope and team, the project has a 90% chance of being done as scheduled by the end of Q3 2011. Given three months and the named 2person team, the project has a 75% chance of delivering the defined scope.
- 18. Expressing Estimates As defined,the product cost has an 80% chance of being between $100K and $400K. If it doesn’t come with a probability, it’s not an estimate. It’s something else.
- 19. Four Brutal Facts 1.Ranges and probabilities will be unacceptable to someone. 2. The size of the range will be unacceptable to someone else. 3. The only way to reduce the range is to reduce sources of uncertainty.
- 20. Four Brutal Facts 4.Reducing sources of uncertainty takes: • Decisions that stick • Time • Money
- 21. I just needa rough estimate. I won’t hold you to it. —Pinocchio So it begins. —Théoden
- 22. Key Definitions Target: Desiredoutcome I’d like the shopping feature in time for holiday peak. Estimate: Likelihood of an outcome The team has a 50% chance of finishing the shopping feature by December 1. Commitment: Agreement to an outcome Boss: It’s live by November 1st, or else. Team: OK, we’ll get it done somehow.
- 23.
- 24.
- 25. A famous, misusedchart 4.0x (The Cone of Uncertainty, from Software Estimation) 1.0x 0.25x
- 26. A famous, misusedchart Total Uncertainty (The Cone of Uncertainty, from Software Estimation) (Scope & Effort) 4.0x 1.0x 0.25x
- 27. A famous, misusedchart 4.0x (The Cone of Uncertainty, from Software Estimation) 1.0x 0.25x
- 28. A famous, misusedchart 4.0x Total Uncertainty (The Cone of Uncertainty, from Software Estimation) (Scope & Effort) Initial Concept 1.0x 0.25x UI Design Complete
- 29.
- 30.
- 31.
- 32.
- 33.
- 34.
- 35.
- 36.
- 37. Crossing the HotZone • Understand it yourself • Encourage sound thinking • Negotiate well – Delay commitment – Commit near the top of the Cone
- 38. Crossing the HotZone • Improve – Estimation (zero bias, real ranges) – Process—reduce uncertainty sooner – Project management
- 39. Sources of Uncertainty Requirements Wedon’t know what it needs to do. Team We don’t know how long that’s going to take. Technology Technology know if that framework and We don’t those components are going to play nice.
- 40. Uncertainty is Increasing Requirements Volatility Team Moreroles Virtual teams Technology Technology Languages Components Platforms Frameworks
- 41. Crossing the HotZone
- 42. Crossing the HotZone
- 43. Crossing the HotZone
- 44. Mistaken beliefs Stretch goals Gamblingand suboptimal results Parkinson’s Law and Student Syndrome <are linear; suffocation is exponential Trade quality for speed Haste makes waste Just add people Mythical-Man-Month (1960s)
- 45. Common phrases You hear… I’llfind somebody who will! You might say… That sounds like a threat to me (Pause). Especially if my job’s on the line, I can’t afford to risk my reputation by agreeing to something that I don’t think is true!
- 46. Common phrases You hear… ButI’ve already told the CEO. You might say… It’s good we’re finding out so quickly that’s probably not achievable. Would you like some help explaining to her why, and looking for the best option we do have?
- 47. Common phrases You hear… Thereare business realities here. You might say… Reality is good. Help me better understand the value proposition here. We can figure out something that will deliver value in that time frame—more than a failed project would.
- 48. Common phrases You hear… I’dlike to hear more of a ‘Can-Do’ attitude from you folks. You might say… I’m real big on keeping commitments, and I’ve found it’s best if I don’t make commitments I can’t keep. I’d sure like to help you set goals for this project that we can all commit to.
- 49. Common phrases The mightyoak was once just a little nut that stood its ground.
- 50. Do the math.—Anonymous
- 51. Parametric estimation At itssimplest: Hours per Hours= Countable X Thing Or fancier: Number of Countable Things
- 52. Countable things 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Related toeffort Available early Low overhead Countable from software itself Not too ambiguous Makes non-technical sense I’ve used: Lines of Code (LOC), Use Cases, Use Case Points, & Function Points
- 53. Making a parametricestimate 1. Count (or estimate) the Countable Thing (CTs) 2. Look at Hours per Countable Thing (HCT) from comparable projects (size, team, technology) 3. Multiply 4. Estimate range
- 54. 90-100 Countables inGreenride Example—Project History
- 55. 90-100 Countables inGreenride Example—Project History Designer s arguing
- 56. 90-100 Countables inGreenride Example—Project History Designer s arguing 20 Reused
- 57. 90-100 Countables inGreenride Example—Project History Designer s arguing 20 Reused Most like “N”
- 58. Example—Reasoning and Math HCT=12.5-20%=10.0 HCT=___ to ____
- 59. Example—Reasoning and Math HCT=12.5-20%=10.0 Range1.75x, so 5.7 to 17.5 HCT =___ to ____
- 60. Example—Reasoning and Math HCT=12.5-20%=10.0 Range1.75x, so 5.7 to 17.5 5.7 17.5 HCT =___ to ____
- 61. Example—Reasoning and Math HCT=12.5-20%=10.0 Range1.75x, so 5.7 to 17.5 5.7 17.5 HCT =___ to ____ 1700 17.5 H 540 =___ 5.7 x ____ 95
- 62. Example—Reasoning and Math HCT=12.5-20%=10.0 Range1.75x, so 5.7 to 17.5 5.7 17.5 HCT =___ to ____ 1700 17.5 H 540 =___ x ____ 5.7 95 6 1700 540 150 M 2 =___ / (2 x ____)
- 63. Example—Reasoning and Math HCT=12.5-20%=10.0 Range1.75x, so 5.7 to 17.5 5.7 17.5 HCT =___ to ____ 1700 17.5 H 540 =___ x ____ 5.7 95 6 1700 540 150 M 2 =___ / (2 x ____) 80% 2-6 months 50% 3 months
- 64. Example—Reasoning and Math HCT=12.5-20%=10.0 Range1.75x, so 5.7 to 17.5 5.7 17.5 HCT =___ to ____ 1700 17.5 H 540 =___ x ____ 5.7 95 6 1700 540 150 M 2 =___ / (2 x ____) 80% 2-6 months 50% 3 months
- 65. Parametric estimate—summary • • • • Independent check Negotiateswell Requires project history (3 or more) Project history is easy but no one likes to maintain it The best time to plant a tree is 30 years ago. The second best time is today.
- 66. You now knowhow to… • Facilitate estimates using The Stretch • Talk about targets, estimates, and commitments, and shape realistic expectations • Prepare and use a requirementsbased project history for parametric estimation
- 67. It’s tough tomake predictions, especially about the future. —Yogi Berra
Editor's Notes
- #2 WelcomeEstimation is Technique 10 in BABOK but not Top of MindShould be—we’re uniquely placed to set projects up for success, or notToday I’ll give you some tools and techniques to give your projects Room to Breathe
- #3 Stretch—anything, anytime, forces RANGE.Client told me years ago, you’re not bad estimators, you’re bad negotiators.Powerful technique that holds up well is parametric—people are afraid but shouldn’t be.
- #4 Signs of suffocationProject that wasn’t worth doing, strained relationships, turnoverWilla CatherOld anti-smoking commercial—”It’s enough to make you SICK. Isn’t it enough to make you STOP?”
- #5 (Pause)We’ve all been here.Dates and budgets form early.Business sponsors don’t like ambiguity, like to agree on the numbers, do the deal, and let their people work out the details.Budgets and schedules are simple; requirements not so much—arcane language.Three things—first and last about estimates, middle about using them—amount of uncertainty, causes, how to come out of the Hot Zone with room to breathe
- #6 Stretch--Learned? Invented? Help others estimateVisual, Freeing, Express uncertaintyExplain, then doWhiteboard or notebook—describe Done—easiest to think duration, so need a team sizeStretched to low for NO, High for NO PROBLEM, now fill in the middle until we can draw a curve
- #7 Describes project outcome
- #8 Describes product concept (cont’d)
- #9 Describe team and tools.
- #10 What’s the chance they’ll be done in a month?
- #11 Nine?
- #12 Two?
- #13 Five?
- #14 Three?Curve.
- #15 Multiple pairs of numbers and probabilities.
- #16 50/50 about Four, 80% from Two to Eight (4x).
- #17 Range embarrassing and asymmetrical. That’s real.People often talk about +/- months. That’s wrong. +/- percent is a little better, but not much. It should be times or divided by some factor, in this case 2x.There are a lot of things that can cause a project to take longer, but a hard limit on how short it can be.
- #18 Scope, Team/Effort, Duration/Effort. Define two, express third as a number or range with a probability.Something about units. Deadline in quarters, not days. Budget in $100K, not to the penny.
- #19 Scope, Team/Effort, Duration/Effort. Define two, express third as a number or range with a probability.Something about units. Deadline in quarters, not days. Budget in $100K, not to the penny.
- #20 Range/% flip out Type A’s.Size of range flips almost everyone—they’ll ask for a smaller range.Reducing range=reducing uncertainty. No shortcuts
- #21 You can’t just make the range smaller by making it so. You have to reduce uncertainty.
- #23 If you only remember one thing from the “Shaping Realistic Expectations” this is it. You have or express targets or goals.You assess a given outcome to produce an estimate.You ask for, negotiate, and accept commitments.According to Merriam-Webster, “commitment” is also “a consignment to a penal or mental institution.” That’s what we’re trying to avoid.
- #24 Two scenarios on how targets interact with estimates and turn into commitments.No range estimate, no good decision support given to boss (but they didn’t encourage it)Bad commitment->project suffocatesThe outcome is something NO ONE would have picked, nor is it anywhere near the best that could have been achieved with the time and people available.
- #25 Here’s a better way.Validate (or not) the target with an estimate.There’s a misfit, so clarify importance of scope or date.May be a little short of breath, but still delivers value—a lot more than the forced, bad commitment.
- #26 Most famous chart in software estimation lore.Tells you how big your ranges are, and how fast they shrink through the lifecycle.BUT, this isn’t you—this is PAR for the course, and there are a whole lot of assumptions built in. PAR is very, very good. A golfer who shoots PAR consistently—a “scratch” golfer, is VERY good. Chances are you aren’t a scratch estimator. You’re worse, or worse yet, you don’t even really know.
- #27 Getting this good requires a solid estimation practice, AND ALSO solid project management & governance. We’ll look at where that uncertainty—the width of the cone, in a little bit, but it doesn’t go down by itself. If your sponsors and teams are out of control, it will NEVER converge.
- #28 The author of the book I pulled this from, on the left, explains all this. If I could only have one estimation book, this would be it. The one on the right is also very good.
- #29 Despite all of these caveats, we can learn some things about setting and negotiating expectations from the Cone.Let’s zero in on the part of the Cone where us BAs live.
- #30 We get the initial concept today, and estimate it at 1100 FP, $200K, and 1 year, with a huge (16x) range. Best of all possible worlds. We’re scratch estimators.
- #31 We run our usual intake process—a requirements workshop, a bit of technical investigation, and some exploration of possible teams. A little more than a month from now, and $6K spent, we’ve cut the range to 4x, and 50/50 estimate holds steady.
- #32 4x range—Type A’s flip out—so we keep doing our BA shtick and tighten up the requirements. That takes another six weeks and $11K, and we’ve cut the range in half again, to maybe 1.5x-2x, but diminishing returns are setting in.
- #33 We’ve used almost ¼ of our schedule and 10% of our budget, and we’re still outside that 25% safety zone we’d like to give the PM.
- #34 What would it take to get to 25%? According to the Cone—pro-tour-level estimating and project control, remember?—we’d have to design the UI, and that takes us out another two months—1/3 of the schedule and pushing 20% of the budget.So another brutal fact is that diminishing returns set in well before our range is tight enough to guarantee room to breathe.
- #35 Once diminishing returns set in, we hit what I call “the hot zone”—range too big for both sponsors and PMs, and shrinking it is going to require a lot more time and money.The actual project could fall anywhere within the cone. There’s a lot of room above that PM safety zone where the project could likely land and not have room to breathe.
- #36 In reality, the Hot Zone looks more like this. Remember that the cone we’ve been looking at is for scratch estimators, working in organizations with pro-tour-level project governance.Your cone of shame is probably wider. That means that your projects stay in the Hot Zone a lot longer, and it’s a lot more likely that someone is going to freeze scope, schedule, and budget by decree. If the point they pick is outside that green bar, things are going to get ugly.
- #37 You’re not going to solve this by being a better estimator (although that helps). It’s about education and negotiation.Your mission, whether you like it or not, is to preserve your project’s room to breathe through the hot zone.
- #38 These are things you can do right away.
- #39 This takes time, but you can make great strides in a year. Part of the first one is having a project history—which will also let you make parametric estimates, which will help you negotiate.
- #40 You have to know WHERE uncertainty comes from in order to explain it, and alter your methodology to drive it out sooner.WHAT are we making? That’s BA stuff.WHO’s making it. “Resources” aren’t interchangeable; productivity varies 3x-10x; WHO isn’t just programmers, also the BA, UI people and…drum roll..the sponsor. 2.5x for same programmer/language/app size.HOW are we making it—technologies, code re-use, etc. The more productive a technology is, the more uncertainty it introduces. Huh?
- #41 Getting better through driving out uncertainty earlier. Must know where uncertainty is to drive it out.Three basic reasonsWHAT are we making? That’s BA stuff.WHO’s making it. “Resources” aren’t interchangeable; productivity varies 3x-10x; WHO isn’t just programmers, also the BA, UI people and…drum roll..the sponsor. 2.5x for same programmer/language/app size.HOW are we making it—technologies, code re-use, etc. The more productive a technology is, the more uncertainty it introduces. Huh?
- #42 Here’s how these improvements play out against the Cone.You start with targets turning to commitments. Any actual project outcome in the red is in trouble, and there’s a big chance of that.
- #43 By committing later and higher, you shrink the Hot Zone to the orange area. Fewer projects will suffocate.
- #44 By getting better (estimating better, driving out uncertainty sooner, and tightening PM), you can commit earlier and lower relative to the 50/50 estimate and keep the Hot Zone smaller soon.
- #45 These are valid in some other areas of management, but in software they get you in big trouble.
- #46 Most of the time these conversations don’t turn into a cage match, but be prepared.Role-play these lines if it will help you.Remember that a suffocated project isn’t in the boss’ best interest either, unless your environment is so political that your boss actually stands to gain from a failure.
- #47 Remember your BA facilitation skills. It’s OK to ask for time to “think about it” and give people a chance to cool off (though hard to live with the waiting).
- #48 By not telling the boss that you believe that the proposed commitment will likely result in failure, you are withholding information.By agreeing to a commitment you are endorsing something that you have good reason to believe is not in the company’s best interest.
- #49 Can-do attitude (you’re yellow)Business realities (you’re selfish, you don’t understand business)I’ve already told so-and-so (good cop, bad cop)What do you need… (I tried to be reasonable, but…)What if you… (challenge your competence)So-and-so says it can be done in… (challenge your competence)I’ll find somebody… (open threat)Wouldn’t you agree that it’s easier to stay motivated and work hard towards a goal you’re convinced is attainable?Help me understand the business goal better…there’s probably something within your target timeline/budget that will deliver valueThanks for letting me know; at least we’re finding out right away that may not work out; I’ll be happy to help you explain what we think can be done in that time frameIt isn’t about the time spent on the estimate, it’s about the time spent resolving uncertainties about the project. When will we have a firm commitment on the team composition/architecture/requested scope reductions?I’ll be glad to go back over this with the team; that might help us to go faster, but every new thing introduces yet more uncertainty so it might not change our confidence at this point all that much.We do not live in a respectful culture any more. There are many respectful people, and many respectable ones, but popular culture does not honor them.Showing respect is a choice we can make; it’s easier to respect some people than others, but ultimately it’s our choice. If you cultivate this attitude all the time then you won’t have to fake it and fail when you need it. And this target—maybe they could lose their job over it.Negotiation is scary for us, and the people we’re talking to about schedules and budgets often do it for a living. But the best cure for our fear, and the way to maximize the chances of a good outcome for everybody, is doing our homework, mentally, relationally, and emotionally. Some of that homework involves establishing a reputation of being trustworthy. You can start today. Some of it means analyzing the situation and the possible outcomes and the pros and cons of each and the likelihood of each being achievable, and being able to talk about how you and your team arrived at those likelihoods. Some of it means visualizing the various ways the meeting could go, and preparing your response to various forms of non-useful behavior. I’m not very good at it, but I’ve come a long way. Do a web search on “sales closing techniques” sometime, and learn to spot them.Courage is not the absence of fear, it is doing the right thing despite fear. Courage comes with knowing you’re prepared. Courage comes with visualizing the results of a good agreement and a bad one. Sometimes it’s easier to stick up for others than it is for ourselves—think of your teammates and that will give you courage. Courage is also found on the high ground—if you’ve elicited, clarified, and validated the other person’s interests, it’s easier to propose an outcome that fulfills your interests if you know it also fulfills theirs, and then stick with it if they try for more at your and your team’s expense. Being prepared will help you elaborate the consequences. But don’t bluff or otherwise get clever. You’re probably not that good at it.I don’t want to give you the idea that every discussion of project estimates and commitments is a cage fight. Most are very cordial, and most project managers and sponsors really are trying to do the right thing. But they are often strong personalities, and often outrank us, and that can cause us to undermine their ability to do the right thing by withholding information, merely because we imagine that they won’t like what we have to say and will think less of us for it. On the contrary—most executives respect someone who comes prepared to respectfully present realistic options, and stands up to some pressure. If we know that a proposed commitment has a significant probability of leading to forced overtime, burnout, turnover, and quality problems that compromise the value of the outcome to the business, and we *withhold* that response out of fear of what they might say if we respectfully say so, we’re depriving them of information they need to make good decisions. Shame on us.The “no thank you” line is easier to get out if you’ve prepared and rehearsed it. “We’ve compared this project to four similar ones, and the numbers show that in order to hit the target date you’ve proposed, our team would have to double its productivity. That’s not a chance I’m prepared to stake my reputation on, and I don’t think the outcome of trying would be good for our business and for you either.”Remember your facilitation skills. If things are getting crazy, suggest a time-out. “Seeing how strongly you feel about this target, I’d like some more time to get together with the team and see if there are approaches that we haven’t thought of that would give us a good chance of having something worthwhile by that date.”
- #50 More often than not, people will respect you for standing firm, especially if you can back up your position.Which leads to the third topic—parametric estimation.
- #51 We’re now into our third and final topic, Parametric Estimation.This sounds esoteric and complicated, and it can be, but like mathematics, it’s very powerful and you can do a lot with a little of it.It can be applied very early and it holds up well in negotiations.
- #52 Fancy scares a lot of people off of simple, which is really too bad.Count and ComputeMore accurate earlyNegotiates well (scope vs. task)
- #53 There are no really great Countable things.
- #54 Stay within ranges of Countable Things, Team sizes, project sizes, and you’ll be OK.As with almost anything, extrapolation is waay dangerous.
- #55 Here’s an example for our hypothetical Greenride project. The best analog is N, and we’ll adjust for re-use. Sometimes it’s best to average several. There’s still subjectivity in a parametric estimate.
- #56 Here’s an example for our hypothetical Greenride project. The best analog is N, and we’ll adjust for re-use. Sometimes it’s best to average several. There’s still subjectivity in a parametric estimate.
- #57 Here’s an example for our hypothetical Greenride project. The best analog is N, and we’ll adjust for re-use. Sometimes it’s best to average several. There’s still subjectivity in a parametric estimate.
- #58 Here’s an example for our hypothetical Greenride project. The best analog is N, and we’ll adjust for re-use. Sometimes it’s best to average several. There’s still subjectivity in a parametric estimate.
- #59 Here’s the math worked out. It gives a slightly more optimistic answer than The Stretch did.
- #60 Here’s the math worked out. It gives a slightly more optimistic answer than The Stretch did.
- #61 Here’s the math worked out. It gives a slightly more optimistic answer than The Stretch did.
- #62 Here’s the math worked out. It gives a slightly more optimistic answer than The Stretch did.
- #63 Here’s the math worked out. It gives a slightly more optimistic answer than The Stretch did.
- #64 Here’s the math worked out. It gives a slightly more optimistic answer than The Stretch did.
- #65 Here’s the math worked out. It gives a slightly more optimistic answer than The Stretch did.
- #66 Independence gives confidence, confidence helps you stand your ground.Separation of scope and productivity encourages the right kind of conversation and negotiation.Project history doesn’t need to be fancy. But it’s easy to procrastinate, at least for me.
- #67 You now have two probably new estimation techniques that work well in the early lifecycle—diminishing returns and the Hot Zone. Neither takes very long to prepare.You also have some concepts around which to educate, and some tools with which to negotiate.
- #68 If you move towards the early-lifecycle estimation and commitment problem, you can really help your teams and company a lot.