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EIBTM INDUSTRY TRENDS REPORT 2011


                  Rob Davidson
             EIBTM Industry Analyst
     Senior Lecturer, University of Greenwich
2011
          overview
An increasingly uneven and
uncertain economic recovery

But the prevailing mood in the
meetings and events industry is still
one of confidence and steady growth
towards 2008 levels of demand.
The global economic context

A year of two halves: beginning with high levels
of business confidence.

Then a loss of momentum across a wide range
of national economies

Now, the advanced economies may be heading
into another downturn in economic activity …
The global economic context
   Key Markets – The US
Stubbornly high unemployment rate

But some positive key performance
indicators in early 2011: profit levels up as
a share of GDP
The global economic context
   Key Markets – Europe
Business confidence here lower than the
world average

Concern over the Eurozone sovereign
debt crisis – and the threat of financial
market contagion

Risk of a return to recession
The global economic context
Key Markets – Emerging Economies
Muscular economic growth – even if
growth rates have moderated a little

Brazil to become the world’s sixth biggest
economy

A booming trade relationship with China
Key client sectors -
         pharmaceutical
Increasing demand, to fulfil the health
needs of ageing populations

But a trend towards generics and drug
discounting could limit growth in Europe

BRIC countries seeing fastest growth
Key client sectors - automotive

Radical shift in the location of production
facilities towards lower-cost regions

But a recovery in vehicle sales in the US

India (14.7%) and China (8.3%) to account
for greatest growth over the next 5 years
Key client sectors –
         financial services

Non-traditional entrants creating a
competitive environment

More consolidations and mergers

Traditional players seeking expansion in
the BRIC countries
Corporate meetings trends

Improved business results More meetings,
especially to BRIC and between BRIC

But delegate numbers still below pre-
recessionary levels

Shorter meetings
Association meetings trends

Ongoing creation of new associations
Association meetings trends

Delegate numbers up

Revenue from exhibitions remains stable

Marginal increases in revenue from
housing and sponsorships
Incentive travel

Stabilising - but still sensitive to program
extravagance
(64%)

Choice of destination: 25+% moved from
international to domestic; 10%+ from
domestic to international; rest - no change
Regional variations – the US
Early 2011 optimism: expectations of fewer
budget cuts; greater interest in overseas
destinations:
      Western Europe 40%   Caribbean 27%
      United Kingdom 37%   Eastern Europe 26%
      Asia 36%             South America 25%
      Mexico 34%           Australia/Pacific Rim 25%
                           Bermuda 13%
Regional variations – the US
But economic unrest in the US became the
main concern for meetings industry
professionals over the summer months

69% said the US Congress, US economy
and the global economy were seen to be
the most influential trend on meetings
                                   (MPI)
Regional variations – Europe
A strong performance for ALL travel, in
early 2011: airlines, hotels …

But tapering off towards the year-end

But continuing dominance of ICCA/UIA lists
Regional variations – China
CIBTM Report: growth of inbound and
domestic events. But also outbound.

Mood among meeting planners is buoyant

Heavy investment in hotels, convention
and exhibition centres
Regional variations – China
Site International Conference in Beijing in
2012

ICCA Congress in Shanghai in 2013
Regional variations –
          Middle East
More business events than at any time in
the past 5 years. High expectation of
growth. Slight drop in average duration.

Extensive growth in meetings-related
investment: During 2012, 131 new hotels
are planned to open, with 36,205 rooms
Regional variations –
           Australia
The business events sector has recaptured
some of its post-2008 losses: international
events up by 16%

Moderate growth in spending (+5%)

But incentive travel spending down (-19%)
OUTLOOK FOR 2012


       ?
OUTLOOK FOR 2012

Only weak growth predicted for the
advanced economies

Risk of a return to recession from:
An escalation of the Eurozone debt crisis - financial contagion
The possibility that the US falls back into recession
A hard landing in the emerging economies
OUTLOOK FOR 2012

But within the meetings and events industry,
there is a greater degree of optimism: predictions
of growing demand and rising rates on the
strength of forward bookings.

Increasing differentials between 1st and 2nd tier
cities
OUTLOOK FOR 2012

‘How would you describe your company's
2012 budget for meetings & events?’

46% ‘About the same’
33% ‘Higher than 2011’
21% ‘Lower than 2011’
ACTE Survey October 2011
OUTLOOK FOR 2012

‘How would you describe your company's
2012 budget for meetings & events?’

46% ‘About the same’
33% ‘Higher than 2011’
21% ‘Lower than 2011’
ACTE Survey October 2011
OUTLOOK FOR 2012

Almost 80% of incentive planners were
looking toward a positive 2012

41% expecting an increase in budget

Incentive Research Foundation, Spring 2011
OUTLOOK FOR 2012

The meetings and events industry will learn more
about operating within volatile markets

Innovation, cooperation, collaboration

We will position ourselves as part of the solution
THANK YOU

R.Davidson@greenwich.ac.uk

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Rob Davidson presentation at the Tri-City Academy of Business Meeting Organizers in Gdansk, 8 December, 2011 - EIBTM 2011, trends in meeting industry

  • 1. EIBTM INDUSTRY TRENDS REPORT 2011 Rob Davidson EIBTM Industry Analyst Senior Lecturer, University of Greenwich
  • 2. 2011 overview An increasingly uneven and uncertain economic recovery But the prevailing mood in the meetings and events industry is still one of confidence and steady growth towards 2008 levels of demand.
  • 3. The global economic context A year of two halves: beginning with high levels of business confidence. Then a loss of momentum across a wide range of national economies Now, the advanced economies may be heading into another downturn in economic activity …
  • 4. The global economic context Key Markets – The US Stubbornly high unemployment rate But some positive key performance indicators in early 2011: profit levels up as a share of GDP
  • 5. The global economic context Key Markets – Europe Business confidence here lower than the world average Concern over the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis – and the threat of financial market contagion Risk of a return to recession
  • 6. The global economic context Key Markets – Emerging Economies Muscular economic growth – even if growth rates have moderated a little Brazil to become the world’s sixth biggest economy A booming trade relationship with China
  • 7. Key client sectors - pharmaceutical Increasing demand, to fulfil the health needs of ageing populations But a trend towards generics and drug discounting could limit growth in Europe BRIC countries seeing fastest growth
  • 8. Key client sectors - automotive Radical shift in the location of production facilities towards lower-cost regions But a recovery in vehicle sales in the US India (14.7%) and China (8.3%) to account for greatest growth over the next 5 years
  • 9. Key client sectors – financial services Non-traditional entrants creating a competitive environment More consolidations and mergers Traditional players seeking expansion in the BRIC countries
  • 10. Corporate meetings trends Improved business results More meetings, especially to BRIC and between BRIC But delegate numbers still below pre- recessionary levels Shorter meetings
  • 11.
  • 12. Association meetings trends Ongoing creation of new associations
  • 13. Association meetings trends Delegate numbers up Revenue from exhibitions remains stable Marginal increases in revenue from housing and sponsorships
  • 14. Incentive travel Stabilising - but still sensitive to program extravagance (64%) Choice of destination: 25+% moved from international to domestic; 10%+ from domestic to international; rest - no change
  • 15. Regional variations – the US Early 2011 optimism: expectations of fewer budget cuts; greater interest in overseas destinations: Western Europe 40% Caribbean 27% United Kingdom 37% Eastern Europe 26% Asia 36% South America 25% Mexico 34% Australia/Pacific Rim 25% Bermuda 13%
  • 16. Regional variations – the US But economic unrest in the US became the main concern for meetings industry professionals over the summer months 69% said the US Congress, US economy and the global economy were seen to be the most influential trend on meetings (MPI)
  • 17. Regional variations – Europe A strong performance for ALL travel, in early 2011: airlines, hotels … But tapering off towards the year-end But continuing dominance of ICCA/UIA lists
  • 18. Regional variations – China CIBTM Report: growth of inbound and domestic events. But also outbound. Mood among meeting planners is buoyant Heavy investment in hotels, convention and exhibition centres
  • 19. Regional variations – China Site International Conference in Beijing in 2012 ICCA Congress in Shanghai in 2013
  • 20. Regional variations – Middle East More business events than at any time in the past 5 years. High expectation of growth. Slight drop in average duration. Extensive growth in meetings-related investment: During 2012, 131 new hotels are planned to open, with 36,205 rooms
  • 21. Regional variations – Australia The business events sector has recaptured some of its post-2008 losses: international events up by 16% Moderate growth in spending (+5%) But incentive travel spending down (-19%)
  • 23. OUTLOOK FOR 2012 Only weak growth predicted for the advanced economies Risk of a return to recession from: An escalation of the Eurozone debt crisis - financial contagion The possibility that the US falls back into recession A hard landing in the emerging economies
  • 24. OUTLOOK FOR 2012 But within the meetings and events industry, there is a greater degree of optimism: predictions of growing demand and rising rates on the strength of forward bookings. Increasing differentials between 1st and 2nd tier cities
  • 25. OUTLOOK FOR 2012 ‘How would you describe your company's 2012 budget for meetings & events?’ 46% ‘About the same’ 33% ‘Higher than 2011’ 21% ‘Lower than 2011’ ACTE Survey October 2011
  • 26. OUTLOOK FOR 2012 ‘How would you describe your company's 2012 budget for meetings & events?’ 46% ‘About the same’ 33% ‘Higher than 2011’ 21% ‘Lower than 2011’ ACTE Survey October 2011
  • 27. OUTLOOK FOR 2012 Almost 80% of incentive planners were looking toward a positive 2012 41% expecting an increase in budget Incentive Research Foundation, Spring 2011
  • 28. OUTLOOK FOR 2012 The meetings and events industry will learn more about operating within volatile markets Innovation, cooperation, collaboration We will position ourselves as part of the solution