Economic Risk Factor Update: May 2024 [SlideShare]
Rieger report aug 13 2018 munis corporates
1. Municipal Bonds v. U.S. Treasury & Corporate Bonds
August 13, 2018
J.R. Rieger
jrrieger@yahoo.com | (516) 524-1110 | theriegerreport.com
2. August 13, 2018
1 (516) 524-1110 jrrieger@yahoo.com | www.theriegerreport.com
8/13/2018
Munis – Key Takeaways: More of the Same
• Short end still rich relative to other options available (including dividends, UST and corporate bonds)
• Long end is still relatively flat offering no real incremental yield v the duration risk (same story all year but new issue supply is
up)
• Muni v corporate bonds: excluding the short end of the curve, munis are still attractive for higher tax bracket market
participants
• I.G. municipal bond ETFs are good options for beta exposure: iShares MUB and Vanguard VTEB are two good examples
• iShares National Municipal Bond (MUB): SEC 30 Day Yield 2.42% (Taxable Equivalent Yield1= 3.84%)
• Vanguard National Municipal (VTEB): SEC 30 Day Yield: 2.47% (Taxable Equivalent YIeld1= 3.92%)
• Vanguard Intermediate Term Corporate (VCIT): SEC 30 Day Yield: 4.03%
• iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate (LQD): SEC 30 Day Yield: 4.08%
• High yield muni bond ETFs still appear attractive: VanEck Vectors HYD and SPDR HYMB are two good examples
• Near term, spreads can widen but I don’t see any time bombs or problematic issues that haven’t been already priced into the
market. Longer term, pension challenges persist and surprises can happen so the ease of selling shares of an ETF instead of
bond issues is valuable.
1Taxable Equivalent Yield assumes a 37% federal tax rate.
3. August 13, 2018
1 (516) 524-1110 jrrieger@yahoo.com | www.theriegerreport.com
Data as of 8/10/2018 with exception of S&P Dividend Yield being as of June 30, 2018. Sources: Municipal bond yields sourced from
The Bond Buyer www.bondbuyer.com Data Workstation and MBIS www.mbis.com , U.S. Treasury bond yields sourced from the U.S.
Department of the Treasury www.treasury.gov and the S&P 500 Dividend Yield was sourced from S&P Dow Jones Indices
www.spdji.com . Chart is provided for illustrative purposes only.
1.91%
72%
80%
91%
101% 102%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
1.25
1.75
2.25
2.75
3.25
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
%ofUSTYield
Yield%
Year
8/13/2018
AAA Municipal Bond Yields
AAA Muni Yield US Treasury Yield S&P 500 Dividend Yield % of UST Yield
S&P 500 Dividend Yield %
4. August 13, 2018
1 (516) 524-1110 jrrieger@yahoo.com | www.theriegerreport.com
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Yield%
Year
8/13/2018
AAA Municipal Bond Yields & Taxable Equivalent
Yields v.
U.S. Treasury Bond Yields
AAA Muni UST TEY 37% TEY 32% TEY 24% TEY 12% TEY 10%
Data as of 8/10/2018. Sources: Municipal bond yields sourced from the Bond Buyer Data Workstation www.bondbuyer.com and MBIS
Municipal Yield Curves, U.S. Treasury bond yields sourced from the U.S. Department of the Treasury www.treasury.gov. Chart is provided for
illustrative purposes only. TEY = Taxable Equivalent Yield at tax rate assumption stated.
5. August 13, 2018
1 (516) 524-1110 jrrieger@yahoo.com | www.theriegerreport.com
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Yield%
Year
8/13/2018
AAA Municipal Bond Yields & Taxable Equivalent
Yields v.
Apple Inc. Corporate Bond Yields
AAA Muni Apple Inc. TEY 37% TEY 32% TEY 24% TEY 10%
Data as of 8/10/2018. Sources: Apple Inc. bond yields provided by SQX https://sqx.com/ . Municipal bond yields sourced from the Bond Buyer
Data Workstation www.bondbuyer.com and MBIS www.mbis.com. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes only. TEY = Taxable Equivalent
Yield at tax rate assumption stated.
6. August 13, 2018
1 (516) 524-1110 jrrieger@yahoo.com | www.theriegerreport.com
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Yield%
Year
8/13/2018
AA Municipal Bond Yields & Taxable Equivalent
Yields v.
Apple Inc. Corporate Bond Yields
AA Muni Apple Inc. TEY 37% TEY 32% TEY 24% TEY 10%
Data as of 8/10/2018. Sources: Apple Inc. bond yields provided by SQX https://sqx.com/ . Municipal bond yields sourced from the Bond Buyer
Data Workstation www.bondbuyer.com and MBIS www.mbis.com. U.S. Treasury bond yields sourced from U.S. Department of the Treasury
www.treasury.gov. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes only. TEY = Taxable Equivalent Yield at tax rate assumption stated.
7. August 13, 2018
1 (516) 524-1110 jrrieger@yahoo.com | www.theriegerreport.com
• Municipal bond yields: the Bond Buyer Data Workstation
https://dataworkstation.bondbuyer.com/
• Municipal bond yields: MBIS https://mbis.com/
• Apple Inc. bond yields: SQX https://sqx.com/
• U.S. Treasury bond yields: U.S. Department of Treasury
https://www.treasury.gov
Data Resources Used in this Report
8. August 13, 2018
1 (516) 524-1110 jrrieger@yahoo.com | www.theriegerreport.com
Notes:
• Taxable Equivalent Yield = Tax Exempt Yield / (1 – Federal Tax Rate)
• 2018 tax brackets, however not all tax brackets are represented herein
• End of day yields are used
Analyst Disclosure:
• J.R. Rieger and or the Rieger Report LLC has not received compensation either directly or indirectly from the
sponsor(s) of the ETF(s) included in this report.
• At the time of this writing, J.R. Rieger does not own the ETF(s) cited in this report, nor bonds issued by Apple
Inc.
• Between July 1st and July 13th 2018, J.R. Rieger purchased insured municipal bonds and AA and higher rated
municipal bonds in the 8 – 14 year maturity range.