This document discusses using statistics, databases, and mobile phones to enhance election monitoring through parallel vote tabulation (PVT). PVT involves citizens independently collecting official results from individual polling stations, transmitting the data via SMS to a central database, and analyzing the aggregated data to verify official results or suggest the true outcome. The document outlines how statistics can focus monitoring, databases can manage monitor and observation data, and SMS can speed information sharing. It provides an example of CODEO/CDD-Ghana's successful 2008 presidential election PVT that sampled 1,070 polling stations and transmitted 90% of observer data via SMS.

1. Verifying Election Results : Employing Statistics, Databases and Mobile Phones to Enhance Monitoring Richard L. Klein Senior Advisor, Elections

2. The Problem Elections are an accountability mechanism Elections need to reflect aggregate citizen preferences to be effective However, citizens may have little confidence that official results reflect their collective preferences Notably, results may be changed after they leave polling stations

3. The Response Parallel Vote Tabulation (PVT) Citizens independently collect official results from individual polling stations Transmit figures to a central location Add numbers together Analyzed the data Share findings

4. Need for Speed Statistics Databases SMS (Texting) PVTs needs be completed quickly - before official results are announced Electoral authorities will always have more resources than citizen initiatives Citizens, however, can still be faster by employing:

5. Statistics Reduces overall burden on citizen groups Greater attention to difficult to reach polling station Focus on Quality over Quantity Use statistics to deploy accredited, well-trained observers to a representative random sample of polling stations

6. Databases Ensures monitors are deployed to all sampled polling stations Enhances data security Facilitates collection of data and data quality control Speeds and simplifies data analysis Employ databases to manage information about monitors as well as observation data

7. SMS (Texting) Speeds and simplifies movement of information Allows greater effort to be made collecting data from remote polling stations Permits two-way communication increasing response rates and improving data quality Develop SMS protocols to enable monitors to transmit observation data by text message

8. PVT Requirements Comprehensive monitoring of the entire electoral process Continuous monitoring at sampled polling stations from opening until the end of counting Coherent top-down network of citizens Training of citizens on monitoring and reporting

9. PVT Benefits More information available more quickly Systematic information on positive and negative aspects of election Ability to verify official results or suggest “true” result of an election Increased voice citizen on conduct of elections

10. Ghana 2008/09 CODEO/CDD-Ghana National Network with experience observing four national elections PVT for presidential election Sample size of 1,070 polling stations Unified database of monitor information and observer data Moved 90% observer data via SMS

11. Sample Stratified geographically to ensure representativeness

12. Tracking Monitors and Reports

13. Analyzing Data

14. Drilling Down

15. Verifying Results

16. SMS Codes

17. Outgoing SMS Messages

18. Response Rate

19. CODEO Statement

20. ZESN Statement – 31 March 08 Official results were finally announced on 02 May 08 (32 days after ZESN and 34 days after the election). Official, Mukoni received 8.3%, Mugabe 43.2%, Towangana 0.6% and Tsvangirai 49.7%.