This document discusses election monitoring and the backlash against it. It provides an overview of the key actors in election observation, including international and domestic observers. It then compares international and domestic observer missions, outlining their respective strengths and limitations. The document outlines common methods of election rigging before, during, and after voting days. It also describes tools used by observers to promote free and fair elections, such as civic education, methodology, and parallel vote tabulations. While the role of domestic observers has increased, the document argues that international election monitoring remains important in some contexts. It concludes by calling for effective cooperation between local and international observers.

1. THE BACKLASH AGAINST ELECTION MONITORS Mr. Peter NovotnyReagan Fascell Democracy FellowInternational Forum for Democratic StudiesNational Endowment for DemocracyFebruary 26, 2010The views expressed in this presentation represent the opinions and analysis of the speaker and do not necessarily reflect those of the National Endowment for Democracy or its staff.

2. Key Actors in Election Observation(Inter)-national observers(Non)- partisan observers Other observers (talking heads, rubber –stamp,, electoral tourists, book readers, fighters)3 generations of observers (1st symbolic presence, 2nd election day boom, 3rd comprehensive long-term methodology)2

3. Who is who ? International or national ? Partisan

4. International and Domestic Observers: A ComparisonInternational MissionsDomestic NGO ObserversBetter access to stakeholdersMedia attentionMissions are limited in time and number of observersSTOs work as mobile teamsMay mediate conflictsInternational expertise and international attentionSubject to Invitation and Accreditation ProcedureAbility to deploy high number of stationary observers at polling sitesMay conduct PVT Voter education, voters’ rights protection hotlinesObserve and advocate for reform on a long-term basis Easier target for obstruction and intimidation4

5. Civic Education in Croatia5

6. Goals of Election Monitoring To objectively assess election processTo safeguard its integrity by deterring fraudTo instill public confidence in election processTo improve the quality of the election processStrengthen democracy at national & local levelsEngage citizens in voter right protection6

7. Methodology of ObservationBefore, during and after election dayLong-term assessment (evidence–based)International standards, regional instrumentsStatistically based approach Experts: legal, political, media, minorities, campaign finance, statisticianTraining of observers (active observers)Reporting forms (checklists)Statistical analysis, IT enhanced reporting Statements, conclusions, recommendations7

8. Election Rigging Today:Before : Denial of opposition’s registration, control of media, abuse of state resources, voter coercion and intimidation, violence, changing rules – constitution, electoral system, threshold, boundaries delimitationDuring: Ballot box stuffing, multiple voting, vote buying, intimidation, disenfranchisement, vote count fraud, tabulation and aggregation fraudAfter: Announcing rigged results, not allowing duly elected to take office8

9. BEFORE - Gerrymandering cartoon (1812)9

10. 10

11. 11 AFTER: Counting Ballots for 2 days

12. Color Revolutions and BacklashColor Revolution Syndrome (Georgia, Ukraine)Blame on Western and NGO observersOSCE accused of “double standards” (West & East)Limitations of intl. observers (Russia 2007-08)Intervention against intl. observers (Moldova 09)Imprisonment of domestic observers (Belarus 06)Denial of accreditation, cancelling NGO registration, intimidation of domestic monitorsCIS observers12

13. DURING : Observers trying to observe early voting (KG)13

14. fffDURING : Voters attempting to enter a polling site. 14

15. 15AFTER: Invalidating Unused Ballots

16. Parallel Vote Tabulation (PVT) as Tool Against Count-Rigging Statistical verification method conducted by Domestic Observer GroupsRepresentative random sample of polling sitesTo deter or detect and denounce tabulation fraudReliable quick projection of results Qualitative and quantitative assessmentProven to be reliable powerful tool for domestic observer groups worldwide16

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18. PVT (Quick Count) vs. Exit Polls PVTExit PollsPVT results are based on sample of results collected from polling stations Quick projection of results within margin of errorPVT data include qualitative assessmentsExit Polls are based on voluntary answers of votersVoters may hide their real preference Voters may refuse to answerExit polls are not reliable in post-conflict countries18

19. CeSID PVT center in Serbia19

20. Presentation of PVT in Serbia (CeSID)20

21. NDI website with e-mapping showing fraud map and data21

22. ConclusionsRole of domestic observers increased significantlyInternational election monitoring remains important in transitional and post-conflict societies Effective synergy - local and international observers Innovative methods used to counter election fraud Public and media need better understanding of the role, principles, and methods of credible observation 22