In 2016, U.S. restaurant sales reached $800 billion, with chain sales comprising 53% and the top 10 chains accounting for 47% of that. Revenue growth for publicly traded restaurants has significantly slowed from an acceleration of 102% between 2012 and 2015 to a deceleration of 65% in recent years, alongside a 23% decrease in operating margins. In contrast, tech-enabled delivery companies like Grubhub are expected to see much higher growth rates, with projections indicating 33% growth for 2019, compared to a mere 4% for traditional foodservice companies.

1. 1© 2018 Aaron Allen & Associates CONFIDENTIAL
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Restaurant sales reached $800b in the US in 2016. Chain sales represent 53% of that (some $427b); the top 100 chains account for
60% of those sales; and the top 10 contribute 47%. These highly concentrated sales make up 15% of the total foodservice industry in
the US.
Ten Leaders Own 15% of the U.S. Foodservice Market
Source: Aaron Allen & Associates, industry sources
*Notes: Company data for FY 2016 serves as an estimate for the calendar year
www.aaronallen.com
© 2018 Aaron Allen
U.S. Sales of Food Away From Home
(FAFH)
$800.3b (2016)
Chains
$427.2b (53% of FAFH)
Top 100
$257b (60% of Chains)
Top 10
$120.6b
(47% of the Top 100)
100%
15%
53%
32%

2. 2© 2018 Aaron Allen & Associates CONFIDENTIAL
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6.3%
-1.3%
2.8%
6.1%
4.8%
7.2%
8.0%
9.6%
4.5%
3.4%
5.2%
4.9%
6.1%
6.7%
7.0%
7.4%
5.7%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
MedianGrowth
Median Revenue Growth
Median Operating Margin
The revenue growth pattern for public restaurants in the U.S. is changing. Between 2012 and 2015, revenue growth accelerated by
102%, but the swing in the last two years has been negative, decelerating by 65%. Meanwhile, operating margins have decreased by
23% — a very different trend than the 6% increase between 2012 and 2015.
Operating Margins Decreasing with Revenue Growth Slowdown
for Publicly Traded Restaurants in the U.S.
Source: Aaron Allen & Associates, public data
www.aaronallen.com
© 2018 Aaron Allen
-65%
Revenue Growth
DeceleratingRevenue Growth Accelerating
+102%
Revenue Growth
Accelerating
+73%-56%
Revenue Growth
Decelerating

3. 3© 2018 Aaron Allen & Associates CONFIDENTIAL
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
RevenueGrowth
Source: Aaron Allen & Associates, public data
www.aaronallen.com
© 2018 Aaron Allen
25.0%
Restaurants
Median
32.5%
4.0% 3.8%
Grubhub Is Expected to Grow Revenue 8.2x as Fast as
U.S. Publicly Traded Restaurants in 2019
Consensus
Estimates
Tech-enabled delivery has already shifted billions of dollars to new platforms and channels. Companies that innovated in this field
are still seeing incredible revenue growth: Grubhub is expected to grow at a 33% rate in 2019 and 25% in 2020 (based on
consensus estimates) while the median growth for U.S. foodservice companies is only projected to be 4% in both years.

4. 4© 2018 Aaron Allen & Associates CONFIDENTIAL
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-5%
15%
35%
55%
75%
95%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
RevenueGrowth
European Food Delivery Companies Are Expected to
Grow at Least 4.5x as Fast as Publicly Traded
Restaurants in 2019
Source: Aaron Allen & Associates, public data
www.aaronallen.com
© 2018 Aaron Allen
28%
Restaurants
Median
42%
6%
35%
Consensus
Estimates
Among publicly traded companies, revenue growth for European food delivery services is considerably faster than for restaurants.
Consensus estimates for 2019 expect growth to reach 28%–42% for Just Eat, Takeaway.com, and Delivery Hero — at least 4.5x as
fast as the median for restaurants.