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ระบบผู้เชี่ยวชาญประเมินระดับความเสี่ยงของผู้ลงทุน
Suitability Test Expert System
เสนอ
อาจารย์เรืองศักดิ์ตระกูลพุทธิรักษ์
โดย
นางสาวอรณิชา จึงอร่ามวงศ์ 55102010338
ตอนเรียน B01 กลุ่มผู้เรียน SC32A
โครงงานนี้เป็นส่วนหนึ่งของการศึกษารายวิชา CP463 ปัญญาประดิษฐ์
มหาวิทยาลัยศรีนครินทรวิโรฒ
ภาคการศึกษาที่ 2 ปีการศึกษา 2557
ระบบผู้เชี่ยวชาญประเมินระดับความเสี่ยงของผู้ลงทุน
Suitability Test Expert System
เสนอ
อาจารย์เรืองศักดิ์ตระกูลพุทธิรักษ์
โดย
นางสาวอรณิชา จึงอร่ามวงศ์ 55102010338
ตอนเรียน B01 กลุ่มผู้เรียน SC32A
โครงงานนี้เป็นส่วนหนึ่งของการศึกษารายวิชา CP463 ปัญญาประดิษฐ์
มหาวิทยาลัยศรีนครินทรวิโรฒ
ภาคการศึกษาที่ 2 ปีการศึกษา 2557
สารบัญ
หน้า
ความสาคัญและที่มา ................................................................................................................................1
ฐานความรู้...............................................................................................................................................1
Decision Tree ...................................................................................................................................2
กฎ.....................................................................................................................................................9
หน้าจอการทางาน..................................................................................................................................23
ประกาศคุณูปการ...................................................................................................................................27
สารบัญรูปภาพ
หน้า
ภาพประกอบที่ 1 Decision Tree.......................................................................................................2
ภาพประกอบที่ 2 Decision Tree.......................................................................................................3
ภาพประกอบที่ 3 Decision Tree.......................................................................................................3
ภาพประกอบที่ 4 Decision Tree.......................................................................................................4
ภาพประกอบที่ 5 Decision Tree.......................................................................................................4
ภาพประกอบที่ 6 Decision Tree.......................................................................................................5
ภาพประกอบที่ 7 Decision Tree.......................................................................................................5
ภาพประกอบที่ 8 Decision Tree.......................................................................................................6
ภาพประกอบที่ 9 Decision Tree.......................................................................................................6
ภาพประกอบที่ 10 Decision Tree ....................................................................................................7
ภาพประกอบที่ 11 Decision Tree ....................................................................................................7
ภาพประกอบที่ 12 Decision Tree ....................................................................................................8
ภาพประกอบที่ 13 Decision Tree ....................................................................................................8
ภาพประกอบที่ 14 Decision Tree ....................................................................................................9
ภาพประกอบที่ 15 หน้าจอการทางาน......................................................................................23
ภาพประกอบที่ 16 หน้าจอการทางาน......................................................................................23
ภาพประกอบที่ 17 หน้าจอการทางาน......................................................................................24
ภาพประกอบที่ 18 หน้าจอการทางาน......................................................................................24
ภาพประกอบที่ 19 หน้าจอการทางาน......................................................................................25
ภาพประกอบที่ 20 หน้าจอการทางาน......................................................................................25
ภาพประกอบที่ 21 หน้าจอการทางาน......................................................................................26
ภาพประกอบที่ 22 หน้าจอการทางาน......................................................................................26
สารบัญตาราง
หน้า
ตารางที่ 1 อธิบายคาถาม...............................................................................................................1
ตารางที่ 2 อธิบายคาตอบ...............................................................................................................2
ระบบผู้เชี่ยวชาญประเมินระดับความเสี่ยงของผู้ลงทุน
ความสาคัญและที่มา
ในปัจจุบันการลงทุนในตลาดหุ้นกาลังได้รับความนิยมเป็นอย่างมาก ทาให้มีผู้คนที่ต้องการจะเริ่ม
ลงทุนในตลาดหุ้นแต่ไม่รู้ว่าตนเองควรจะเริ่มจากการลงทุนประเภทไหน
จากปัญหาดังกล่าวจึงทาให้เกิดมาเป็นระบบผู้เชี่ยวชาญประเมินระดับความเสี่ยงของผู้ลงทุน ที่ได้
จากการสอบถามความรู้จากคุณแม่ที่ทาอาชีพมาร์เก็ตติ้ง(โบรกเกอร์) ที่ต้องคอยดูแลลูกค้าหรือผู้ที่ต้องการ
ลงทุนในตลาดหุ้นว่าจะมีการให้คาแนะนาผู้ที่ต้องการจะเริ่มลงทุนในตลาดหุ้นว่าควรจะเริ่มต้นอย่าไร
ฐานความรู้
Question คาแปล
Age อายุปัจจุบัน
Education ระดับการศึกษา
Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio มูลค่าเงินออมและหลักทรัพย์ที่มีไว้เพื่อลงทุน
Which best describes your experience in
securities investment?
ประสบการณ์การลงทุนในตลาดหลักทรัพย์
Do you use the returns on investment for your
daily spending?
วัตถุประสงค์ในการลงทุน เพื่อต้องการนา
ผลตอบแทนมาใช้ในการจับจ่ายใช้สอยใน
ชีวิตประจาวันหรือไม่
How long would you like to commit to your
investment?
ท่านประสงค์จะจัดสรรเงินมาลงทุนเป็นระยะ
เวลานานเท่าใด โดยที่แน่ใจว่าไม่จาเป็นต้องใช้เงิน
จานวนนั้น
Level of risk tolerance for investment ระดับความเสี่ยงในการลงทุนที่สามารถยอมรับได้
How much loss can you accept from
investment in a certain period?
ท่านคิดว่า ท่านจะยอมรับผลขาดทุนจากการลงทุน
ในขณะใดขณะหนึ่งได้มากน้อยเพียงใด
ตารางที่1 อธิบายคาถาา
2
Goals คาแปล
Conservative Investor นักลงทุนประเภทเสี่ยงต่า
Moderately Conservative Investor นักลงทุนประเภทเสี่ยงปานกลางค่อนข้างต่า
Moderately Aggressive Investor นักลงทุนประเภทเสี่ยงปานกลางค่อนข้างสูง
Aggressive Investor นักลงทุนประเภทเสี่ยงสูง
Highly Aggressive Investor นักลงทุนประเภทเสี่ยงสูงมาก
ตารางที่2 อธิบายคาตอบ
Decision Tree
ภาพประกอบที่1 Decision Tree
3
ภาพประกอบที่2 Decision Tree
ภาพประกอบที่3 Decision Tree
4
ภาพประกอบที่4 Decision Tree
ภาพประกอบที่5 Decision Tree
5
ภาพประกอบที่6 Decision Tree
ภาพประกอบที่7 Decision Tree
6
ภาพประกอบที่8 Decision Tree
ภาพประกอบที่9 Decision Tree
7
ภาพประกอบที่10 Decision Tree
ภาพประกอบที่11 Decision Tree
8
ภาพประกอบที่12 Decision Tree
ภาพประกอบที่13 Decision Tree
9
ภาพประกอบที่14 Decision Tree
กฎ
Rule 1: If Age Over 60 years old
and Education Under Bachelor's Degree
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million
Then Suitability is Conservative Investor (1)
Rule 2: If Age Over 60 years old
and Education Under Bachelor's Degree
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
Then Suitability is Conservative Investor (0.9)
Rule 3: If Age Over 60 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million
Then Suitability is Conservative Investor (0.8)
Rule 4: If Age Over 60 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above
10
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
Then Suitability is Conservative Investor (0.7)
Rule 5: If Age 35-60 years old
and Education Under Bachelor's Degree
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million
and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept some risk
Then Suitability is Conservative Investor (0.6)
Rule 6: If Age 35-60 years old
and Education Under Bachelor's Degree
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million
and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept high risk
Then Suitability is Conservative Investor (0.5)
Rule 7: If Age 35-60 years old
and Education Under Bachelor's Degree
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept some risk
Then Suitability is Conservative Investor (0.4)
Rule 8: If Age 35-60 years old
and Education Under Bachelor's Degree
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept high risk
Then Suitability is Conservative Investor (0.3)
Rule 9: If Age 35-60 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes
and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept some risk
11
Then Suitability is Conservative Investor (0.2)
Rule 10: If Age 35-60 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes
and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept High risk
Then Suitability is Conservative Investor (0.1)
Rule 11: If Age 35-60 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No
and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept some risk
Then Suitability is Moderately Conservative Investor (1)
Rule 12: If Age 35-60 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No
and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept high risk
Then Suitability is Moderately Conservative Investor (0.9)
Rule 13: If Age 35-60 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes
and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept some risk
Then Suitability is Moderately Conservative Investor (0.8)
Rule 14: If Age 35-60 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above
12
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes
and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept high risk
Then Suitability is Moderately Conservative Investor (0.7)
Rule 15: If Age 35-60 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No
and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept some risk
Then Suitability is Moderately Conservative Investor (0.6)
Rule 16: If Age 35-60 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes
and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept some risk
Then Suitability is Moderately Conservative Investor (0.5)
Rule 17: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Under Bachelor's Degree
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes
and How long would you like to commit to your investment?
Less than 3 years or 3 years
Then Suitability is Moderately Conservative Investor (0.4)
Rule 18: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Under Bachelor's Degree
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes
13
and How long would you like to commit to your investment? More than 3 years
Then Suitability is Moderately Conservative Investor (0.3)
Rule 19: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Under Bachelor's Degree
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No
and How long would you like to commit to your investment?
Less than 3 years or 3 years
Then Suitability is Moderately Conservative Investor (0.2)
Rule 20: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Under Bachelor's Degree
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No
and How long would you like to commit to your investment?
More than 3 years
Then Suitability is Moderately Conservative Investor (0.1)
Rule 21: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Under Bachelor's Degree
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes
and How long would you like to commit to your investment?
Less than 3 years or 3 years
Then Suitability is Moderately Aggressive Investor (1)
Rule 22: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Under Bachelor's Degree
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes
14
and How long would you like to commit to your investment?
More than 3 years
Then Suitability is Moderately Aggressive Investor (0.9)
Rule 23: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Under Bachelor's Degree
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No
and How long would you like to commit to your investment?
Less than 3 years or 3 years
Then Suitability is Moderately Aggressive Investor (0.8)
Rule 24: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Under Bachelor's Degree
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No
and How long would you like to commit to your investment?
More than 3 years
Then Suitability is Moderately Aggressive Investor (0.7)
Rule 25: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above.
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes
and How long would you like to commit to your investment?
Less than 3 years or 3 years
and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept some risk
Then Suitability is Moderately Aggressive Investor (0.6)
Rule 26: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above.
15
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes
and How long would you like to commit to your investment?
Less than 3 years or 3 years
and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept high risk
Then Suitability is Moderately Aggressive Investor (0.5)
Rule 27: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above.
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes
and How long would you like to commit to your investment?
More than 3 years
and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept some risk
Then Suitability is Moderately Aggressive Investor (0.4)
Rule 28: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above.
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes
and How long would you like to commit to your investment?
More than 3 years
and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept high risk
Then Suitability is Moderately Aggressive Investor (0.3)
Rule 29: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above.
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No
and How long would you like to commit to your investment?
16
Less than 3 years or 3 years
and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept some risk
Then Suitability is Moderately Aggressive Investor (0.2)
Rule 30: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above.
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No
and How long would you like to commit to your investment?
Less than 3 years or 3 years
and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept high risk
Then Suitability is Moderately Aggressive Investor (0.1)
Rule 31: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above.
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No
and How long would you like to commit to your investment?
More than 3 years
and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept some risk
Then Suitability is Aggressive Investor (1)
Rule 32: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above.
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No
and How long would you like to commit to your investment?
More than 3 years
and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept high risk
Then Suitability is Aggressive Investor (0.9)
17
Rule 33: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above.
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Which best describes your experience in securities investment?
Less than 5 years or 5 years of experience
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes
and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept some risk
Then Suitability is Aggressive Investor (0.8)
Rule 34: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above.
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Which best describes your experience in securities investment?
Less than 5 years or 5 years of experience
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes
and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept high risk
Then Suitability is Aggressive Investor (0.7)
Rule 35: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above.
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Which best describes your experience in securities investment?
Less than 5 years or 5 years of experience
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No
and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept some risk
Then Suitability is Aggressive Investor (0.6)
Rule 36: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above.
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
18
and Which best describes your experience in securities investment?
Less than 5 years or 5 years of experience
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No
and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept high risk
Then Suitability is Aggressive Investor (0.5)
Rule 37: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above.
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Which best describes your experience in securities investment? More than 5
years
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes
and How long would you like to commit to your investment? Less than 3 years or 3
years
and How much loss can you accept from investment in a certain period? Less than
10%
Then Suitability is Aggressive Investor (0.4)
Rule 38: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above.
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Which best describes your experience in securities investment? More than 5
years
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes
and How long would you like to commit to your investment?
Less than 3 years or 3 years
and How much loss can you accept from investment in a certain period?
10-30% of investment amount
Then Suitability is Aggressive Investor (0.3)
19
Rule 39: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above.
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Which best describes your experience in securities investment? More than 5
years
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes
and How long would you like to commit to your investment?
Less than 3 years or 3 years
and How much loss can you accept from investment in a certain period?
More than 30% of investment amount
Then Suitability is Aggressive Investor (0.2)
Rule 40: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above.
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Which best describes your experience in securities investment? More than 5
years
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes
and How long would you like to commit to your investment?
More than 3 years
and How much loss can you accept from investment in a certain period? Less than
10%
Then Suitability is Highly Aggressive Investor (0.2)
Rule 41: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above.
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Which best describes your experience in securities investment? More than 5
years
20
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes
and How long would you like to commit to your investment? More than 3 years
and How much loss can you accept from investment in a certain period?
10-30% of investment amount
Then Suitability is Highly Aggressive Investor (0.3)
Rule 42: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above.
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Which best describes your experience in securities investment? More than 5
years
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes
and How long would you like to commit to your investment? More than 3 years
and How much loss can you accept from investment in a certain period?
More than 30% of investment amount
Then Suitability is Highly Aggressive Investor (0.4)
Rule 43: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above.
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Which best describes your experience in securities investment? More than 5
years
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No
and How long would you like to commit to your investment? Less than 3 years or 3
years
and How much loss can you accept from investment in a certain period?
Less than 10% of investment amount
Then Suitability is Highly Aggressive Investor (0.5)
21
Rule 44: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above.
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Which best describes your experience in securities More than 5 years
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No
and How long would you like to commit to your investment? Less than 3 years or 3
years
and How much loss can you accept from investment in a certain period?
10-30% of investment amount
Then Suitability is Highly Aggressive Investor (0.6)
Rule 45: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above.
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Which best describes your experience in securities investment? More than 5
years
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No
and How long would you like to commit to your investment? Less than 3 years or 3
years
and How much loss can you accept from investment in a certain period?
More than 30% of investment amount
Then Suitability is Highly Aggressive Investor (0.7)
Rule 46: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above.
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Which best describes your experience in securities investment? More than 5
years
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No
22
and How long would you like to commit to your investment? More than 3 years
and How much loss can you accept from investment in a certain period?
Less than 10% of investment amount
Then Suitability is Highly Aggressive Investor (0.8)
Rule 47: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above.
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Which best describes your experience in securities investment? More than 5
years
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No
and How long would you like to commit to your investment? More than 3 years
and How much loss can you accept from investment in a certain period?
10-30% of investment amount
Then Suitability is Highly Aggressive Investor (0.9)
Rule 48: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above.
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Which best describes your experience in securities investment? More than 5
years
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No
and How long would you like to commit to your investment? More than 3 years
and How much loss can you accept from investment in a certain period?
More than 30% of investment amount
Then Suitability is Highly Aggressive Investor (1)
23
หน้าจอการทางาน
ภาพประกอบที่15 หน้าจอการทางาน
ภาพประกอบที่16 หน้าจอการทางาน
24
ภาพประกอบที่17 หน้าจอการทางาน
ภาพประกอบที่18 หน้าจอการทางาน
25
ภาพประกอบที่19 หน้าจอการทางาน
ภาพประกอบที่20 หน้าจอการทางาน
26
ภาพประกอบที่21 หน้าจอการทางาน
ภาพประกอบที่22 หน้าจอการทางาน
27
ประกาศคุณูปการ
การสร้างระบบผู้เชี่ยวชาญนี้ สาเร็จสมบูรณ์ได้ด้วยดี เพราะได้รับความช่วยเหลือจากคุณแม่ของ
ผู้จัดทาที่ให้ความรู้ในเรื่องของการลงทุน และอาจารย์ผู้สอน อาจารย์เรืองศักดิ์ตระกูลพุทธิรักษ์ ที่ได้ให้
คาปรึกษา และแนะนาการใช้โปรแกรม Exsys ผู้จัดทาขอขอบพระคุณเป็นอย่างสูง
บรรณานุกรม
บรรณานุกรม
อุมาพร จาปาดะ. (2553). ระบบผู้เชี่ยวชาญ. สืบค้นเมื่อ 5 เมษายน 2558, จาก
https://www.l3nr.org/posts/347469
ภาคผนวก
ระบบผู้เชี่ยวชาญประเมินระดับความเสี่ยงของผู้ลงทุน (Report)
ระบบผู้เชี่ยวชาญประเมินระดับความเสี่ยงของผู้ลงทุน (Report)
ระบบผู้เชี่ยวชาญประเมินระดับความเสี่ยงของผู้ลงทุน (Report)
ระบบผู้เชี่ยวชาญประเมินระดับความเสี่ยงของผู้ลงทุน (Report)
ระบบผู้เชี่ยวชาญประเมินระดับความเสี่ยงของผู้ลงทุน (Report)
ระบบผู้เชี่ยวชาญประเมินระดับความเสี่ยงของผู้ลงทุน (Report)

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ระบบผู้เชี่ยวชาญประเมินระดับความเสี่ยงของผู้ลงทุน (Report)

  • 1. ระบบผู้เชี่ยวชาญประเมินระดับความเสี่ยงของผู้ลงทุน Suitability Test Expert System เสนอ อาจารย์เรืองศักดิ์ตระกูลพุทธิรักษ์ โดย นางสาวอรณิชา จึงอร่ามวงศ์ 55102010338 ตอนเรียน B01 กลุ่มผู้เรียน SC32A โครงงานนี้เป็นส่วนหนึ่งของการศึกษารายวิชา CP463 ปัญญาประดิษฐ์ มหาวิทยาลัยศรีนครินทรวิโรฒ ภาคการศึกษาที่ 2 ปีการศึกษา 2557
  • 2. ระบบผู้เชี่ยวชาญประเมินระดับความเสี่ยงของผู้ลงทุน Suitability Test Expert System เสนอ อาจารย์เรืองศักดิ์ตระกูลพุทธิรักษ์ โดย นางสาวอรณิชา จึงอร่ามวงศ์ 55102010338 ตอนเรียน B01 กลุ่มผู้เรียน SC32A โครงงานนี้เป็นส่วนหนึ่งของการศึกษารายวิชา CP463 ปัญญาประดิษฐ์ มหาวิทยาลัยศรีนครินทรวิโรฒ ภาคการศึกษาที่ 2 ปีการศึกษา 2557
  • 3. สารบัญ หน้า ความสาคัญและที่มา ................................................................................................................................1 ฐานความรู้...............................................................................................................................................1 Decision Tree ...................................................................................................................................2 กฎ.....................................................................................................................................................9 หน้าจอการทางาน..................................................................................................................................23 ประกาศคุณูปการ...................................................................................................................................27
  • 4. สารบัญรูปภาพ หน้า ภาพประกอบที่ 1 Decision Tree.......................................................................................................2 ภาพประกอบที่ 2 Decision Tree.......................................................................................................3 ภาพประกอบที่ 3 Decision Tree.......................................................................................................3 ภาพประกอบที่ 4 Decision Tree.......................................................................................................4 ภาพประกอบที่ 5 Decision Tree.......................................................................................................4 ภาพประกอบที่ 6 Decision Tree.......................................................................................................5 ภาพประกอบที่ 7 Decision Tree.......................................................................................................5 ภาพประกอบที่ 8 Decision Tree.......................................................................................................6 ภาพประกอบที่ 9 Decision Tree.......................................................................................................6 ภาพประกอบที่ 10 Decision Tree ....................................................................................................7 ภาพประกอบที่ 11 Decision Tree ....................................................................................................7 ภาพประกอบที่ 12 Decision Tree ....................................................................................................8 ภาพประกอบที่ 13 Decision Tree ....................................................................................................8 ภาพประกอบที่ 14 Decision Tree ....................................................................................................9 ภาพประกอบที่ 15 หน้าจอการทางาน......................................................................................23 ภาพประกอบที่ 16 หน้าจอการทางาน......................................................................................23 ภาพประกอบที่ 17 หน้าจอการทางาน......................................................................................24 ภาพประกอบที่ 18 หน้าจอการทางาน......................................................................................24 ภาพประกอบที่ 19 หน้าจอการทางาน......................................................................................25 ภาพประกอบที่ 20 หน้าจอการทางาน......................................................................................25
  • 7. ระบบผู้เชี่ยวชาญประเมินระดับความเสี่ยงของผู้ลงทุน ความสาคัญและที่มา ในปัจจุบันการลงทุนในตลาดหุ้นกาลังได้รับความนิยมเป็นอย่างมาก ทาให้มีผู้คนที่ต้องการจะเริ่ม ลงทุนในตลาดหุ้นแต่ไม่รู้ว่าตนเองควรจะเริ่มจากการลงทุนประเภทไหน จากปัญหาดังกล่าวจึงทาให้เกิดมาเป็นระบบผู้เชี่ยวชาญประเมินระดับความเสี่ยงของผู้ลงทุน ที่ได้ จากการสอบถามความรู้จากคุณแม่ที่ทาอาชีพมาร์เก็ตติ้ง(โบรกเกอร์) ที่ต้องคอยดูแลลูกค้าหรือผู้ที่ต้องการ ลงทุนในตลาดหุ้นว่าจะมีการให้คาแนะนาผู้ที่ต้องการจะเริ่มลงทุนในตลาดหุ้นว่าควรจะเริ่มต้นอย่าไร ฐานความรู้ Question คาแปล Age อายุปัจจุบัน Education ระดับการศึกษา Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio มูลค่าเงินออมและหลักทรัพย์ที่มีไว้เพื่อลงทุน Which best describes your experience in securities investment? ประสบการณ์การลงทุนในตลาดหลักทรัพย์ Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? วัตถุประสงค์ในการลงทุน เพื่อต้องการนา ผลตอบแทนมาใช้ในการจับจ่ายใช้สอยใน ชีวิตประจาวันหรือไม่ How long would you like to commit to your investment? ท่านประสงค์จะจัดสรรเงินมาลงทุนเป็นระยะ เวลานานเท่าใด โดยที่แน่ใจว่าไม่จาเป็นต้องใช้เงิน จานวนนั้น Level of risk tolerance for investment ระดับความเสี่ยงในการลงทุนที่สามารถยอมรับได้ How much loss can you accept from investment in a certain period? ท่านคิดว่า ท่านจะยอมรับผลขาดทุนจากการลงทุน ในขณะใดขณะหนึ่งได้มากน้อยเพียงใด ตารางที่1 อธิบายคาถาา
  • 8. 2 Goals คาแปล Conservative Investor นักลงทุนประเภทเสี่ยงต่า Moderately Conservative Investor นักลงทุนประเภทเสี่ยงปานกลางค่อนข้างต่า Moderately Aggressive Investor นักลงทุนประเภทเสี่ยงปานกลางค่อนข้างสูง Aggressive Investor นักลงทุนประเภทเสี่ยงสูง Highly Aggressive Investor นักลงทุนประเภทเสี่ยงสูงมาก ตารางที่2 อธิบายคาตอบ Decision Tree ภาพประกอบที่1 Decision Tree
  • 15. 9 ภาพประกอบที่14 Decision Tree กฎ Rule 1: If Age Over 60 years old and Education Under Bachelor's Degree and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million Then Suitability is Conservative Investor (1) Rule 2: If Age Over 60 years old and Education Under Bachelor's Degree and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million Then Suitability is Conservative Investor (0.9) Rule 3: If Age Over 60 years old and Education Bachelor's Degree and above and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million Then Suitability is Conservative Investor (0.8) Rule 4: If Age Over 60 years old and Education Bachelor's Degree and above
  • 16. 10 and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million Then Suitability is Conservative Investor (0.7) Rule 5: If Age 35-60 years old and Education Under Bachelor's Degree and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept some risk Then Suitability is Conservative Investor (0.6) Rule 6: If Age 35-60 years old and Education Under Bachelor's Degree and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept high risk Then Suitability is Conservative Investor (0.5) Rule 7: If Age 35-60 years old and Education Under Bachelor's Degree and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept some risk Then Suitability is Conservative Investor (0.4) Rule 8: If Age 35-60 years old and Education Under Bachelor's Degree and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept high risk Then Suitability is Conservative Investor (0.3) Rule 9: If Age 35-60 years old and Education Bachelor's Degree and above and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept some risk
  • 17. 11 Then Suitability is Conservative Investor (0.2) Rule 10: If Age 35-60 years old and Education Bachelor's Degree and above and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept High risk Then Suitability is Conservative Investor (0.1) Rule 11: If Age 35-60 years old and Education Bachelor's Degree and above and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept some risk Then Suitability is Moderately Conservative Investor (1) Rule 12: If Age 35-60 years old and Education Bachelor's Degree and above and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept high risk Then Suitability is Moderately Conservative Investor (0.9) Rule 13: If Age 35-60 years old and Education Bachelor's Degree and above and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept some risk Then Suitability is Moderately Conservative Investor (0.8) Rule 14: If Age 35-60 years old and Education Bachelor's Degree and above
  • 18. 12 and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept high risk Then Suitability is Moderately Conservative Investor (0.7) Rule 15: If Age 35-60 years old and Education Bachelor's Degree and above and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept some risk Then Suitability is Moderately Conservative Investor (0.6) Rule 16: If Age 35-60 years old and Education Bachelor's Degree and above and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept some risk Then Suitability is Moderately Conservative Investor (0.5) Rule 17: If Age Under 35 years old and Education Under Bachelor's Degree and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes and How long would you like to commit to your investment? Less than 3 years or 3 years Then Suitability is Moderately Conservative Investor (0.4) Rule 18: If Age Under 35 years old and Education Under Bachelor's Degree and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes
  • 19. 13 and How long would you like to commit to your investment? More than 3 years Then Suitability is Moderately Conservative Investor (0.3) Rule 19: If Age Under 35 years old and Education Under Bachelor's Degree and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No and How long would you like to commit to your investment? Less than 3 years or 3 years Then Suitability is Moderately Conservative Investor (0.2) Rule 20: If Age Under 35 years old and Education Under Bachelor's Degree and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No and How long would you like to commit to your investment? More than 3 years Then Suitability is Moderately Conservative Investor (0.1) Rule 21: If Age Under 35 years old and Education Under Bachelor's Degree and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes and How long would you like to commit to your investment? Less than 3 years or 3 years Then Suitability is Moderately Aggressive Investor (1) Rule 22: If Age Under 35 years old and Education Under Bachelor's Degree and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes
  • 20. 14 and How long would you like to commit to your investment? More than 3 years Then Suitability is Moderately Aggressive Investor (0.9) Rule 23: If Age Under 35 years old and Education Under Bachelor's Degree and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No and How long would you like to commit to your investment? Less than 3 years or 3 years Then Suitability is Moderately Aggressive Investor (0.8) Rule 24: If Age Under 35 years old and Education Under Bachelor's Degree and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No and How long would you like to commit to your investment? More than 3 years Then Suitability is Moderately Aggressive Investor (0.7) Rule 25: If Age Under 35 years old and Education Bachelor's Degree and above. and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes and How long would you like to commit to your investment? Less than 3 years or 3 years and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept some risk Then Suitability is Moderately Aggressive Investor (0.6) Rule 26: If Age Under 35 years old and Education Bachelor's Degree and above.
  • 21. 15 and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes and How long would you like to commit to your investment? Less than 3 years or 3 years and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept high risk Then Suitability is Moderately Aggressive Investor (0.5) Rule 27: If Age Under 35 years old and Education Bachelor's Degree and above. and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes and How long would you like to commit to your investment? More than 3 years and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept some risk Then Suitability is Moderately Aggressive Investor (0.4) Rule 28: If Age Under 35 years old and Education Bachelor's Degree and above. and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes and How long would you like to commit to your investment? More than 3 years and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept high risk Then Suitability is Moderately Aggressive Investor (0.3) Rule 29: If Age Under 35 years old and Education Bachelor's Degree and above. and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No and How long would you like to commit to your investment?
  • 22. 16 Less than 3 years or 3 years and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept some risk Then Suitability is Moderately Aggressive Investor (0.2) Rule 30: If Age Under 35 years old and Education Bachelor's Degree and above. and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No and How long would you like to commit to your investment? Less than 3 years or 3 years and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept high risk Then Suitability is Moderately Aggressive Investor (0.1) Rule 31: If Age Under 35 years old and Education Bachelor's Degree and above. and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No and How long would you like to commit to your investment? More than 3 years and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept some risk Then Suitability is Aggressive Investor (1) Rule 32: If Age Under 35 years old and Education Bachelor's Degree and above. and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No and How long would you like to commit to your investment? More than 3 years and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept high risk Then Suitability is Aggressive Investor (0.9)
  • 23. 17 Rule 33: If Age Under 35 years old and Education Bachelor's Degree and above. and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million and Which best describes your experience in securities investment? Less than 5 years or 5 years of experience and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept some risk Then Suitability is Aggressive Investor (0.8) Rule 34: If Age Under 35 years old and Education Bachelor's Degree and above. and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million and Which best describes your experience in securities investment? Less than 5 years or 5 years of experience and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept high risk Then Suitability is Aggressive Investor (0.7) Rule 35: If Age Under 35 years old and Education Bachelor's Degree and above. and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million and Which best describes your experience in securities investment? Less than 5 years or 5 years of experience and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept some risk Then Suitability is Aggressive Investor (0.6) Rule 36: If Age Under 35 years old and Education Bachelor's Degree and above. and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
  • 24. 18 and Which best describes your experience in securities investment? Less than 5 years or 5 years of experience and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept high risk Then Suitability is Aggressive Investor (0.5) Rule 37: If Age Under 35 years old and Education Bachelor's Degree and above. and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million and Which best describes your experience in securities investment? More than 5 years and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes and How long would you like to commit to your investment? Less than 3 years or 3 years and How much loss can you accept from investment in a certain period? Less than 10% Then Suitability is Aggressive Investor (0.4) Rule 38: If Age Under 35 years old and Education Bachelor's Degree and above. and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million and Which best describes your experience in securities investment? More than 5 years and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes and How long would you like to commit to your investment? Less than 3 years or 3 years and How much loss can you accept from investment in a certain period? 10-30% of investment amount Then Suitability is Aggressive Investor (0.3)
  • 25. 19 Rule 39: If Age Under 35 years old and Education Bachelor's Degree and above. and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million and Which best describes your experience in securities investment? More than 5 years and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes and How long would you like to commit to your investment? Less than 3 years or 3 years and How much loss can you accept from investment in a certain period? More than 30% of investment amount Then Suitability is Aggressive Investor (0.2) Rule 40: If Age Under 35 years old and Education Bachelor's Degree and above. and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million and Which best describes your experience in securities investment? More than 5 years and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes and How long would you like to commit to your investment? More than 3 years and How much loss can you accept from investment in a certain period? Less than 10% Then Suitability is Highly Aggressive Investor (0.2) Rule 41: If Age Under 35 years old and Education Bachelor's Degree and above. and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million and Which best describes your experience in securities investment? More than 5 years
  • 26. 20 and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes and How long would you like to commit to your investment? More than 3 years and How much loss can you accept from investment in a certain period? 10-30% of investment amount Then Suitability is Highly Aggressive Investor (0.3) Rule 42: If Age Under 35 years old and Education Bachelor's Degree and above. and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million and Which best describes your experience in securities investment? More than 5 years and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes and How long would you like to commit to your investment? More than 3 years and How much loss can you accept from investment in a certain period? More than 30% of investment amount Then Suitability is Highly Aggressive Investor (0.4) Rule 43: If Age Under 35 years old and Education Bachelor's Degree and above. and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million and Which best describes your experience in securities investment? More than 5 years and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No and How long would you like to commit to your investment? Less than 3 years or 3 years and How much loss can you accept from investment in a certain period? Less than 10% of investment amount Then Suitability is Highly Aggressive Investor (0.5)
  • 27. 21 Rule 44: If Age Under 35 years old and Education Bachelor's Degree and above. and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million and Which best describes your experience in securities More than 5 years and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No and How long would you like to commit to your investment? Less than 3 years or 3 years and How much loss can you accept from investment in a certain period? 10-30% of investment amount Then Suitability is Highly Aggressive Investor (0.6) Rule 45: If Age Under 35 years old and Education Bachelor's Degree and above. and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million and Which best describes your experience in securities investment? More than 5 years and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No and How long would you like to commit to your investment? Less than 3 years or 3 years and How much loss can you accept from investment in a certain period? More than 30% of investment amount Then Suitability is Highly Aggressive Investor (0.7) Rule 46: If Age Under 35 years old and Education Bachelor's Degree and above. and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million and Which best describes your experience in securities investment? More than 5 years and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No
  • 28. 22 and How long would you like to commit to your investment? More than 3 years and How much loss can you accept from investment in a certain period? Less than 10% of investment amount Then Suitability is Highly Aggressive Investor (0.8) Rule 47: If Age Under 35 years old and Education Bachelor's Degree and above. and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million and Which best describes your experience in securities investment? More than 5 years and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No and How long would you like to commit to your investment? More than 3 years and How much loss can you accept from investment in a certain period? 10-30% of investment amount Then Suitability is Highly Aggressive Investor (0.9) Rule 48: If Age Under 35 years old and Education Bachelor's Degree and above. and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million and Which best describes your experience in securities investment? More than 5 years and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No and How long would you like to commit to your investment? More than 3 years and How much loss can you accept from investment in a certain period? More than 30% of investment amount Then Suitability is Highly Aggressive Investor (1)
  • 33. 27 ประกาศคุณูปการ การสร้างระบบผู้เชี่ยวชาญนี้ สาเร็จสมบูรณ์ได้ด้วยดี เพราะได้รับความช่วยเหลือจากคุณแม่ของ ผู้จัดทาที่ให้ความรู้ในเรื่องของการลงทุน และอาจารย์ผู้สอน อาจารย์เรืองศักดิ์ตระกูลพุทธิรักษ์ ที่ได้ให้ คาปรึกษา และแนะนาการใช้โปรแกรม Exsys ผู้จัดทาขอขอบพระคุณเป็นอย่างสูง
  • 35. บรรณานุกรม อุมาพร จาปาดะ. (2553). ระบบผู้เชี่ยวชาญ. สืบค้นเมื่อ 5 เมษายน 2558, จาก https://www.l3nr.org/posts/347469