ระบบผู้เชี่ยวชาญประเมินระดับความเสี่ยงของผู้ลงทุน นางสาวอรณิชา จึงอร่ามวงศ์ 55102010338 B01 CP463 ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE 2/2557

1. ระบบผู้เชี่ยวชาญประเมิน
ระดับความเสี่ยงของผู้ลงทุน
Suitability Test Expert System
CP463 ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE 2/2557
นางสาวอรณิชา จึงอร่ามวงศ์ 55102010338

2. ความสาคัญและที่มา
ในปัจจุบันการลงทุนในตลาดหุ้นกาลังได้รับความนิยมเป็นอย่างมาก ทาให้
มีผู้คนที่ต้องการจะเริ่มลงทุนในตลาดหุ้นแต่ไม่รู้ว่าตนเองควรจะเริ่มจากการ
ลงทุนประเภทไหน
จากปัญหาดังกล่าวจึงทาให้เกิดมาเป็นระบบผู้เชี่ยวชาญประเมินระดับ
ความเสี่ยงของผู้ลงทุน ที่ได้จากการสอบถามความรู้จากคุณแม่ที่ทาอาชีพมาร์
เก็ตติ้ง(โบรกเกอร์) ที่ต้องคอยดูแลลูกค้าหรือผู้ที่ต้องการลงทุนในตลาดหุ้นว่า
จะมีการให้คาแนะนาผู้ที่ต้องการจะเริ่มลงทุนในตลาดหุ้นว่าควรจะเริ่มต้นอย่า
ไร

3. ฐานความรู้
Question คาแปล
Age อายุปัจจุบัน
Education ระดับการศึกษา
Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio มูลค่าเงินออมและหลักทรัพย์ที่มีไว้เพื่อลงทุน
Which best describes your experience in
securities investment?
ประสบการณ์การลงทุนในตลาดหลักทรัพย์
Do you use the returns on investment for
your daily spending?
วัตถุประสงค์ในการลงทุน เพื่อต้องการนาผลตอบแทนมาใช้ใน
การจับจ่ายใช้สอยในชีวิตประจาวันหรือไม่
How long would you like to commit to
your investment?
ท่านประสงค์จะจัดสรรเงินมาลงทุนเป็นระยะเวลานานเท่าใด
โดยที่แน่ใจว่าไม่จาเป็นต้องใช้เงินจานวนนั้น
Level of risk tolerance for investment ระดับความเสี่ยงในการลงทุนที่สามารถยอมรับได้
How much loss can you accept from
investment in a certain period?
ท่านคิดว่า ท่านจะยอมรับผลขาดทุนจากการลงทุนในขณะใด
ขณะหนึ่งได้มากน้อยเพียงใด

4. Goals คาแปล
Conservative Investor นักลงทุนประเภทเสี่ยงต่า
Moderately Conservative Investor นักลงทุนประเภทเสี่ยงปานกลาง
ค่อนข้างต่า
Moderately Aggressive Investor นักลงทุนประเภทเสี่ยงปานกลาง
ค่อนข้างสูง
Aggressive Investor นักลงทุนประเภทเสี่ยงสูง
Highly Aggressive Investor นักลงทุนประเภทเสี่ยงสูงมาก

5. Decision Tree

18. Validation tree

19. Rule
Rule 1: If Age Over 60 years old
and Education Under Bachelor's Degree
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio
Less than 3 million or 3 million
Then Suitability is Conservative Investor (1)
Rule 2: If Age Over 60 years old
and Education Under Bachelor's Degree
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio
More than 3 million
Then Suitability is Conservative Investor (0.9)
Rule 3: If Age Over 60 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio
Less than 3 million or 3 million
Then Suitability is Conservative Investor (0.8)

20. Rule 4: If Age Over 60 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio
More than 3 million
Then Suitability is Conservative Investor (0.7)
Rule 5: If Age 35-60 years old
and Education Under Bachelor's Degree
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio
Less than 3 million or 3 million
and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can
accept some risk
Then Suitability is Conservative Investor (0.6)
Rule 6: If Age 35-60 years old
and Education Under Bachelor's Degree
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio
Less than 3 million or 3 million
and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can
accept high risk
Then Suitability is Conservative Investor (0.5)

21. Rule 7: If Age 35-60 years old
and Education Under Bachelor's Degree
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept some risk
Then Suitability is Conservative Investor (0.4)
Rule 8: If Age 35-60 years old
and Education Under Bachelor's Degree
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept high risk
Then Suitability is Conservative Investor (0.3)
Rule 9: If Age 35-60 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes
and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept some risk
Then Suitability is Conservative Investor (0.2)

22. Rule 10: If Age 35-60 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes
and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept High risk
Then Suitability is Conservative Investor (0.1)
Rule 11: If Age 35-60 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No
and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept some risk
Then Suitability is Moderately Conservative Investor (1)
Rule 12: If Age 35-60 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No
and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept high risk
Then Suitability is Moderately Conservative Investor (0.9)

23. Rule 13: If Age 35-60 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes
and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept some risk
Then Suitability is Moderately Conservative Investor (0.8)
Rule 14: If Age 35-60 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes
and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept high risk
Then Suitability is Moderately Conservative Investor (0.7)
Rule 15: If Age 35-60 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No
and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept some risk
Then Suitability is Moderately Conservative Investor (0.6)

24. Rule 16: If Age 35-60 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes
and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept some risk
Then Suitability is Moderately Conservative Investor (0.5)
Rule 17: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Under Bachelor's Degree
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes
and How long would you like to commit to your investment?
Less than 3 years or 3 years
Then Suitability is Moderately Conservative Investor (0.4)
Rule 18: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Under Bachelor's Degree
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes
and How long would you like to commit to your investment? More than 3 years
Then Suitability is Moderately Conservative Investor (0.3)

25. Rule 19: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Under Bachelor's Degree
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No
and How long would you like to commit to your investment?
Less than 3 years or 3 years
Then Suitability is Moderately Conservative Investor (0.2)
Rule 20: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Under Bachelor's Degree
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No
and How long would you like to commit to your investment?
More than 3 years
Then Suitability is Moderately Conservative Investor (0.1)

26. Rule 21: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Under Bachelor's Degree
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes
and How long would you like to commit to your investment?
Less than 3 years or 3 years
Then Suitability is Moderately Aggressive Investor (1)
Rule 22: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Under Bachelor's Degree
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes
and How long would you like to commit to your investment?
More than 3 years
Then Suitability is Moderately Aggressive Investor (0.9)

27. Rule 23: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Under Bachelor's Degree
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No
and How long would you like to commit to your investment?
Less than 3 years or 3 years
Then Suitability is Moderately Aggressive Investor (0.8)
Rule 24: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Under Bachelor's Degree
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No
and How long would you like to commit to your investment?
More than 3 years
Then Suitability is Moderately Aggressive Investor (0.7)

28. Rule 25: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above.
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes
and How long would you like to commit to your investment?
Less than 3 years or 3 years
and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept some risk
Then Suitability is Moderately Aggressive Investor (0.6)
Rule 26: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above.
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes
and How long would you like to commit to your investment?
Less than 3 years or 3 years
and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept high risk
Then Suitability is Moderately Aggressive Investor (0.5)

29. Rule 27: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above.
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes
and How long would you like to commit to your investment?
More than 3 years
and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept some risk
Then Suitability is Moderately Aggressive Investor (0.4)
Rule 28: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above.
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes
and How long would you like to commit to your investment?
More than 3 years
and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept high risk
Then Suitability is Moderately Aggressive Investor (0.3)

30. Rule 29: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above.
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No
and How long would you like to commit to your investment?
Less than 3 years or 3 years
and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept some risk
Then Suitability is Moderately Aggressive Investor (0.2)
Rule 30: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above.
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No
and How long would you like to commit to your investment?
Less than 3 years or 3 years
and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept high risk
Then Suitability is Moderately Aggressive Investor (0.1)

31. Rule 31: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above.
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No
and How long would you like to commit to your investment?
More than 3 years
and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept some risk
Then Suitability is Aggressive Investor (1)
Rule 32: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above.
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio Less than 3 million or 3 million
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No
and How long would you like to commit to your investment?
More than 3 years
and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept high risk
Then Suitability is Aggressive Investor (0.9)

32. Rule 33: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above.
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Which best describes your experience in securities investment?
Less than 5 years or 5 years of experience
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes
and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept some risk
Then Suitability is Aggressive Investor (0.8)
Rule 34: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above.
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Which best describes your experience in securities investment?
Less than 5 years or 5 years of experience
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes
and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept high risk
Then Suitability is Aggressive Investor (0.7)

33. Rule 35: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above.
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Which best describes your experience in securities investment?
Less than 5 years or 5 years of experience
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No
and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept some risk
Then Suitability is Aggressive Investor (0.6)
Rule 36: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above.
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Which best describes your experience in securities investment?
Less than 5 years or 5 years of experience
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No
and Level of risk tolerance for investment I can accept high risk
Then Suitability is Aggressive Investor (0.5)

34. Rule 37: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above.
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Which best describes your experience in securities investment? More than 5 years
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes
and How long would you like to commit to your investment? Less than 3 years or 3 years
and How much loss can you accept from investment in a certain period? Less than 10%
Then Suitability is Aggressive Investor (0.4)
Rule 38: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above.
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Which best describes your experience in securities investment? More than 5 years
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes
and How long would you like to commit to your investment?
Less than 3 years or 3 years
and How much loss can you accept from investment in a certain period?
10-30% of investment amount
Then Suitability is Aggressive Investor (0.3)

35. Rule 39: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above.
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Which best describes your experience in securities investment? More than 5 years
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes
and How long would you like to commit to your investment?
Less than 3 years or 3 years
and How much loss can you accept from investment in a certain period?
More than 30% of investment amount
Then Suitability is Aggressive Investor (0.2)
Rule 40: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above.
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Which best describes your experience in securities investment? More than 5 years
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes
and How long would you like to commit to your investment?
More than 3 years
and How much loss can you accept from investment in a certain period? Less than 10%
Then Suitability is Highly Aggressive Investor (0.2)

36. Rule 41: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above.
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Which best describes your experience in securities investment? More than 5 years
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes
and How long would you like to commit to your investment? More than 3 years
and How much loss can you accept from investment in a certain period?
10-30% of investment amount
Then Suitability is Highly Aggressive Investor (0.3)
Rule 42: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above.
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Which best describes your experience in securities investment? More than 5 years
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? Yes
and How long would you like to commit to your investment? More than 3 years
and How much loss can you accept from investment in a certain period?
More than 30% of investment amount
Then Suitability is Highly Aggressive Investor (0.4)

37. Rule 43: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above.
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Which best describes your experience in securities investment? More than 5 years
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No
and How long would you like to commit to your investment? Less than 3 years or 3 years
and How much loss can you accept from investment in a certain period?
Less than 10% of investment amount
Then Suitability is Highly Aggressive Investor (0.5)
Rule 44: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above.
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Which best describes your experience in securities More than 5 years
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No
and How long would you like to commit to your investment? Less than 3 years or 3 years
and How much loss can you accept from investment in a certain period?
10-30% of investment amount
Then Suitability is Highly Aggressive Investor (0.6)

38. Rule 45: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above.
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Which best describes your experience in securities investment? More than 5 years
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No
and How long would you like to commit to your investment? Less than 3 years or 3 years
and How much loss can you accept from investment in a certain period?
More than 30% of investment amount
Then Suitability is Highly Aggressive Investor (0.7)
Rule 46: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above.
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Which best describes your experience in securities investment? More than 5 years
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No
and How long would you like to commit to your investment? More than 3 years
and How much loss can you accept from investment in a certain period?
Less than 10% of investment amount
Then Suitability is Highly Aggressive Investor (0.8)

39. Rule 47: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above.
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Which best describes your experience in securities investment? More than 5 years
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No
and How long would you like to commit to your investment? More than 3 years
and How much loss can you accept from investment in a certain period?
10-30% of investment amount
Then Suitability is Highly Aggressive Investor (0.9)
Rule 48: If Age Under 35 years old
and Education Bachelor's Degree and above.
and Amount of Saving and Securities Portfolio More than 3 million
and Which best describes your experience in securities investment? More than 5 years
and Do you use the returns on investment for your daily spending? No
and How long would you like to commit to your investment? More than 3 years
and How much loss can you accept from investment in a certain period?
More than 30% of investment amount
Then Suitability is Highly Aggressive Investor (1)

40. หน้าจอการทางาน
อายุปัจจุบัน

41. ระดับการศึกษา

42. มูลค่าเงินออมและหลักทรัพย์ที่มีไว้เพื่อลงทุน

43. ประสบการณ์ในการลงทุนในหลักทรัพย์

44. ความต้องการในการนาผลตอบแทนมาใช้ในการจับจ่ายใช้สอย
ประจา

45. ระยะเวลาที่ต้องการจะจัดสรรเงินมาลงทุน

46. ผลขาดทุนที่สามารถยอมรับได้

47. ผลคือ ท่านเป็นนักลงทุนประเภทเสี่ยงสูงมาก

48. ประกาศคุณูปการ
การสร้างระบบผู้เชี่ยวชาญนี้ สาเร็จสมบูรณ์ได้ด้วยดี เพราะได้รับ
ความช่วยเหลือจากคุณแม่ของผู้จัดทาที่ให้ความรู้ในเรื่องของการลงทุน
และอาจารย์ผู้สอน อาจารย์เรืองศักดิ์ตระกูลพุทธิรักษ์ ที่ได้ให้คาปรึกษา
และแนะนาการใช้โปรแกรม Exsys ผู้จัดทาขอขอบพระคุณเป็นอย่างสูง

49. บรรณานุกรม
อุมาพร จาปาดะ. (2553). ระบบผู้เชี่ยวชาญ. สืบค้นเมื่อ 5 เมษายน 2558,
จาก https://www.l3nr.org/posts/347469