SlideShare a Scribd company logo
Referrals
Victor Naroditskiy
joint work with
Talal Rahwan, Tomasz Michalak
Seb Stein, Long Tran-Thanh, Mirco Tonin, Michael Vlassopoulos
Iyad Rahwan, Manuel Cebrian
Nick Jennings
Crowdsourced Manhunt (Before)
2
Can you find me in
New York today?
Crowdsourced Manhunt (Now)
3
Tag Challenge
...and four of my friends in
DC, London, Stockholm, and Bratislava.
4
Our team found 3 out of 5 and won.
5
...despite our team’s Twitter and
Facebook gaining very little attention
6
Told about the challenge
and our team to online
media before the
competition
which led to posts on Slashdot and other forums.
7
When deciding to participate, people
considered credibility of our team.
University
affiliations
Winner of the
Red Balloon
challenge
Mentions on
CNET, ZDNET
Twitter and
Facebook accounts
with updates
8
Fair incentives encouraged participation and
referral of friends.
1
2
3
F
$1 for the first 2,000
referrals.
Finder receives
$500.
Referrer of the
finder receives
$100.
$5,000 prize distributed
among participants.
9
More details in
[Computer 2013]
[PLoS ONE 2013]
10
DARPA Red Balloon Challenge
11
MIT Mechanism:
½-split contract
1
2
3
F 500
62.5
250
125
recursive
12
Theoretical
justification for this
mechanism.
[PLoS ONE 2012]
Other Ways to Motivate Recruitment
1
2
3
F 800
0
200
0
Invite people
who may know
the answer.
finder + referrer
13
Our strategy in
the Tag Challenge.
Other Ways to Motivate Recruitment
1
2
3
F 800
0
100
100
Invite people
who may invite
many friends.
2 x finder + referrer
14
Successful paths are short (fewer than 2 referrals).
1
2
3
F 500
62.5
250
125
1
2
3
F 800
0
200
0
1
2
3
F 800
0
100
100
recursive finder + referrer 2 x finder + referrer
Use simpler non-recursive mechanisms? 15
How to Incentivize Referrals?
Field experiment
16
Incentive Mechanisms
• 1 point for each referral
• 3 points for each referral
• 1 point per referral, ½ point for indirect referral, ¼
point for... (recursive)
• Control: no points for referrals.
17
18
Facebook posts bring 22% of total donations.
19
20
Treatments
Data
• 416 observations
• Looked at differences in
– referred sign-ups
– referred visits
– referral actions (clicking to tweet or post on fb).
21
Probability of Generating One or More
Visit
Probability of Generating One or More
Signup
Next field experiment
• Easier to attract participants (mTurk or in
partnership with a high-traffic site)
• Gamification
– competition to collect more points
• Social recognition
– points result in the user being acknowledged.
24
Financial incentives gone wrong
Map AEDs in Philadelphia.
Most of the submissions by 2
participants who went door-to-door.
No monetary incentives.
Successful crowdsourcing
of AEDs in the Netherlands.
“Crowding out” altruistic
spirit. 25
Theory: referrals and fairness
26
For every friend who joins and installs
Dropbox on their computer, we'll give you
both 500 MB of bonus space.
27
1 referral is worth 1GB.
1
2
3
1/2
1/2
Recursive
+ 1/4
Invitee not
compensated.
30
1
2
3
1/2
1/2
1/2
Dropbox
+ 1/2
No compensation
for indirect
referrals.
31
Shapley Value
32
Balanced Contributions:
Your reward from my presence equals
my reward from your presence.
Efficiency:
Sum of rewards = total value.
1
3
Reward: Root-dependent
33
v = 0
1
2
3
v = 2
2
3
v = 0
0
1
2
v = 1
00
0
1
2
3
1/2
1/3
1/2
Shapley
+ 1/3
+ 1/3
34
1
2
3
1/2
1/2
1/2
Symmetric
+ 1/2
+ 1/4
35
+ 1/4
Symmetric
36
Receive sd for every neighbor at distance d
Dropbox: s1 = 1/2, s2 = 0, s3 = 0 ...
Satisfies balanced contributions!
Symmetric vs Geometric
37
Setting sd = (1/2)d makes Symmetric similar to Geometric
Compensation for descendants is the same under
Geometric and Symmetric, but Symmetric also
compensates for ancestors
Geometric mechanisms do not satisfy balanced
contribution
1
3
Reward: Root-independent
38
1
2
3
v = sum of rewards
2
3
s1
1
2
s1s2
s2
Symmetric vs Geometric
Recursive Shapley
No balanced
contributions.
Balanced
Contributions:
Root-dependent
39
1
2
3
1/2
1/3
1/2 + 1/3
+ 1/3 1/2
1/2
1/2 + 1/2
+ 1/4
+ 1/4
Symmetric
Balanced
Contributions
1/2
0
1/2
+ 1/4
Recursive Shapley
40
1
2
3
833
333
833
600
600
800
Symmetric
1200
0
800
Normalized to Distribute 2GB
Trees
41
Referral structure:
Under all mechanisms, an ancestor is compensated for at
least as many nodes as his descendent.
1
2 3
4 5 6 7
8 9 10
Thank you
42

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