The document provides an overview and analysis of Russia's real estate market in Q4 2013. It finds that Russia's GDP growth slowed to an estimated 1.4-1.5% in 2013, down from the government's earlier forecast of 3.4%, as industrial production and fixed investments declined. Retail sales remained the main driver of economic recovery. Total commercial real estate investment volume was around $7.45 billion in 2013, similar to 2012 levels. The office and retail sectors attracted the most investment, with Moscow receiving around 70% of total deals. The retail market continued expanding into regional cities, with 63 new shopping centers completed across Russia in 2013 totaling over 1.4 million square meters of space.
Real estate market in 2013 made a good start. Despite economy slowdown and negative industrial production index market remained solid in Q1 with record investment volumes and strong sector performance. Political and macroeconomy trends in Russia become more or less shaped after turbulent year 2012 and micro level prospects are now more or less clear. Corporations are not planning any significant expansion and focus on operational efficiency. So relocations are well planned driven by solid reasoning.
Extraordinary investment market results (3.4 USD bn in Q1 2013) are driven by two large deals that were negotiated in 2012.
However despite good start of the year we do not change our forecast for 2013 because of the expected slowdown in Q2 and disruption of business caused by March events in Cyprus.
Cyprus jurisdiction used widely by Russian real estate companies and investors due to favorable double tax avoidance treaty, English legal system and flexibility of local banks. Bank crisis will not destroy this system but will disrupt investment activity until major issues are settled down. It is not clear so far will any other jurisdiction may compete with Cyprus for real estate operations, but undoubtly investors will explore other options.
In Q2 economy will face recovery of industrial production so after Q1 destocking half year figures will be similar to previous year. However real estate market will slow down a little bit in comparison with fast start of the year.
Major threat for real estate business is increasing currency risk. Growing budget deficit creates pressure on Ruble which may lead to exchange rate ajustment later this year. However so far it is unclear how government will handle this deficit. That is why our 2013 outlook remains basically unchanged.
Indicators to watch in Q2:
-Logistic construction volumes
-Office take up in Moscow
-Shopping centers footfall
Business Sweden Russia 2016 - Business Climate Survey final reportAnton Ekman
The document provides a summary of a business climate survey of Swedish companies operating in Russia in 2016. Key findings include:
- In 2015, 40% of companies saw increasing revenues in rubles, but 57% saw decreasing revenues in group currency due to currency depreciation.
- 80% of companies maintained or grew their market share despite challenges.
- 55% of companies raised prices in 2015 to counter inflation and currency volatility.
- Most companies lowered real wages and 38% decreased staffing levels to reduce costs.
- For 2016, companies expect continued revenue growth in rubles but declines in group currency, as well as further market share gains.
The interim report summarizes Ramirent's financial and operational highlights for Q3 and the first nine months of 2013. Net sales declined by 10.6% in Q3 but adjusted for divested operations and currency effects, the decrease was 3.3%. EBITA margin excluding non-recurring items improved to 17.6% in Q3. For the first nine months, net sales decreased 7.7% while adjusted EBITA margin was 13.4%. The report also provides an outlook for Ramirent and its key markets in 2013 and 2014, noting construction output is expected to grow positively in Nordic countries in 2014. Segment reviews for Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark and Eastern Europe are included.
The document provides a summary of developments and trends in Israeli exports in the first half of 2014. Total exports of goods and services grew 2% to $48 billion, driven by a 13% increase in exports of services to $17 billion. Exports of goods remained virtually unchanged at $29.5 billion, with a 1.5% overall increase entirely due to a 6.5% growth in diamond exports. Industrial exports stagnated, with declines in chemicals and stagnation in electronics, while pharmaceutical exports recovered. Exports to the EU rose 10% but due to currency fluctuations, while exports to the US fell 6%, mainly in pharmaceuticals. Export concentration continued, with the top ten exporters accounting for half of total exports
Trade analytics of Switzerland and Jordan major ImportsSuyash Sharma
Analysis of key sectors and products on the basis of value and quantity. The various considerations and macroeconomic policies have been detailed to show the trend and the relative co-relation between them.
- Country Overview
- Product Wise Analysis (Switzerland)
- Product Wise Analysis (Jordan)
The interim report summarizes Ramirent's financial results for Q1 2013. Net sales decreased 7% to MEUR 152.8 due to lower sales in Finland, Norway, and Denmark, though profitability excluding non-recurring items was close to last year's level. EBITA was MEUR 22.6 compared to MEUR 14.4 in Q1 2012. Segment reviews showed stable demand in Sweden but weaker construction activity affecting Denmark, Finland, and Europe East. In March, Ramirent also finalized the formation of a joint venture, Fortrent, in Russia and Ukraine.
There was a mild revival in India's export growth in 2013-14 after a decline in 2012-13. While export growth rates saw fluctuations, ending the year at a positive 4.1% growth. The deceleration in export growth in 2012-13 was mainly due to a sharp decline in the growth of export unit values, rather than a decline in export quantities. Similarly for imports, the deceleration in growth in 2012-13 was largely due to a steep fall in the growth of import unit values, despite an improvement in import quantities. The emerging and developing economies significantly increased their share of world exports from 2000 to 2012, with China being the largest contributor, while the shares of newly industrialized Asian economies declined slightly over the
Slide pack Ulster Bank NI PMI January 2016Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for the January Ulster Bank NI PMI, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Real estate market in 2013 made a good start. Despite economy slowdown and negative industrial production index market remained solid in Q1 with record investment volumes and strong sector performance. Political and macroeconomy trends in Russia become more or less shaped after turbulent year 2012 and micro level prospects are now more or less clear. Corporations are not planning any significant expansion and focus on operational efficiency. So relocations are well planned driven by solid reasoning.
Extraordinary investment market results (3.4 USD bn in Q1 2013) are driven by two large deals that were negotiated in 2012.
However despite good start of the year we do not change our forecast for 2013 because of the expected slowdown in Q2 and disruption of business caused by March events in Cyprus.
Cyprus jurisdiction used widely by Russian real estate companies and investors due to favorable double tax avoidance treaty, English legal system and flexibility of local banks. Bank crisis will not destroy this system but will disrupt investment activity until major issues are settled down. It is not clear so far will any other jurisdiction may compete with Cyprus for real estate operations, but undoubtly investors will explore other options.
In Q2 economy will face recovery of industrial production so after Q1 destocking half year figures will be similar to previous year. However real estate market will slow down a little bit in comparison with fast start of the year.
Major threat for real estate business is increasing currency risk. Growing budget deficit creates pressure on Ruble which may lead to exchange rate ajustment later this year. However so far it is unclear how government will handle this deficit. That is why our 2013 outlook remains basically unchanged.
Indicators to watch in Q2:
-Logistic construction volumes
-Office take up in Moscow
-Shopping centers footfall
Business Sweden Russia 2016 - Business Climate Survey final reportAnton Ekman
The document provides a summary of a business climate survey of Swedish companies operating in Russia in 2016. Key findings include:
- In 2015, 40% of companies saw increasing revenues in rubles, but 57% saw decreasing revenues in group currency due to currency depreciation.
- 80% of companies maintained or grew their market share despite challenges.
- 55% of companies raised prices in 2015 to counter inflation and currency volatility.
- Most companies lowered real wages and 38% decreased staffing levels to reduce costs.
- For 2016, companies expect continued revenue growth in rubles but declines in group currency, as well as further market share gains.
The interim report summarizes Ramirent's financial and operational highlights for Q3 and the first nine months of 2013. Net sales declined by 10.6% in Q3 but adjusted for divested operations and currency effects, the decrease was 3.3%. EBITA margin excluding non-recurring items improved to 17.6% in Q3. For the first nine months, net sales decreased 7.7% while adjusted EBITA margin was 13.4%. The report also provides an outlook for Ramirent and its key markets in 2013 and 2014, noting construction output is expected to grow positively in Nordic countries in 2014. Segment reviews for Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark and Eastern Europe are included.
The document provides a summary of developments and trends in Israeli exports in the first half of 2014. Total exports of goods and services grew 2% to $48 billion, driven by a 13% increase in exports of services to $17 billion. Exports of goods remained virtually unchanged at $29.5 billion, with a 1.5% overall increase entirely due to a 6.5% growth in diamond exports. Industrial exports stagnated, with declines in chemicals and stagnation in electronics, while pharmaceutical exports recovered. Exports to the EU rose 10% but due to currency fluctuations, while exports to the US fell 6%, mainly in pharmaceuticals. Export concentration continued, with the top ten exporters accounting for half of total exports
Trade analytics of Switzerland and Jordan major ImportsSuyash Sharma
Analysis of key sectors and products on the basis of value and quantity. The various considerations and macroeconomic policies have been detailed to show the trend and the relative co-relation between them.
- Country Overview
- Product Wise Analysis (Switzerland)
- Product Wise Analysis (Jordan)
The interim report summarizes Ramirent's financial results for Q1 2013. Net sales decreased 7% to MEUR 152.8 due to lower sales in Finland, Norway, and Denmark, though profitability excluding non-recurring items was close to last year's level. EBITA was MEUR 22.6 compared to MEUR 14.4 in Q1 2012. Segment reviews showed stable demand in Sweden but weaker construction activity affecting Denmark, Finland, and Europe East. In March, Ramirent also finalized the formation of a joint venture, Fortrent, in Russia and Ukraine.
There was a mild revival in India's export growth in 2013-14 after a decline in 2012-13. While export growth rates saw fluctuations, ending the year at a positive 4.1% growth. The deceleration in export growth in 2012-13 was mainly due to a sharp decline in the growth of export unit values, rather than a decline in export quantities. Similarly for imports, the deceleration in growth in 2012-13 was largely due to a steep fall in the growth of import unit values, despite an improvement in import quantities. The emerging and developing economies significantly increased their share of world exports from 2000 to 2012, with China being the largest contributor, while the shares of newly industrialized Asian economies declined slightly over the
Slide pack Ulster Bank NI PMI January 2016Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for the January Ulster Bank NI PMI, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
This document provides a summary of trends in Israeli exports for the first half of 2016. Some key points:
- Total exports of goods and services were virtually unchanged from the first half of 2015. Exports of goods fell 6% due to declines in industrial exports and diamonds, but this was offset by a 10% increase in exports of services.
- Exports of industrial goods fell 6% overall, driven by sharp declines in electronics, pharmaceuticals, and chemicals exports. Exports of industrial high-tech goods fell 9%.
- Exports declined to all major trading regions, including the European Union (-9%), Asia (-13%), the US (-3%), Latin America (-12%), and Africa (-24%). Declines
The beverage market in China is large and growing. The frozen beverages and edible ice market exceeded RMB 20 billion in 2009, growing more than 15%. Foreign companies hold over 10% of the market and 25% of total profits. The solid beverage market also exceeded RMB 20 billion in 2009, growing over 10%. Foreign firms hold over 30% of the market and 35% of total profits. Both markets saw increasing sales, production, and profits in recent years.
Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, November 2015, including sectoral analysis and analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Northern Ireland December 2019 PMI Chart PackRichard Ramsey
Global output growth accelerated to an 8-month high in December due to stronger services activity, though manufacturing output slipped. Growth also picked up in the US, Eurozone, India, Spain and Ireland. The Northern Ireland PMI showed that while the rate of contraction eased, output and orders continued to decline across all sectors, with the steepest falls in Northern Ireland compared to other UK regions. Firms in Northern Ireland reported modest job losses and subdued inflationary pressures, alongside cautious optimism about future growth.
Lithuanian Economy - No 1, January 4, 2012Swedbank
The Lithuanian economy remained resilient in November despite weakening demand abroad. While manufacturing growth slowed, it continued to expand, and retail trade grew at its fastest pace since recovery began. Strong growth in the fourth quarter should help public finances as budget collection has lagged targets this year. However, both foreign and domestic demand are expected to slow in the coming year, easing inflation pressures.
Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) are monthly surveys of private sector companies which provide an advance indication of what is happening in the private sector economy by tracking variables such as output, new orders, employment and prices across different sectors.
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector.
Global gold demand fell 10% in Q3 to 992.8 tonnes due to weakness in bars, coins and jewelry as consumer demand was down 16% year-to-date. Exchange-traded products were the only area of growth, with inflows of 145.6 tonnes as investors continued adding to their strategic holdings. Recycling of gold increased 30% to 340.9 tonnes in Q3, reaching a 4-year high due to high gold prices and structural changes in some markets like India, where demand remained weak and the local price fell to a large discount against the international price.
Ulster Bank's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) surveys found that in March 2017:
1) Global output growth was just shy of a 13-month high, with growth accelerating in the UK, Eurozone, Russia, Japan, and India.
2) The Eurozone composite PMI hit a 6-year high, with strong growth in France and Germany.
3) In Northern Ireland, firms' output growth accelerated but new orders growth slowed to a 5-month low.
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI report, July 2017, including analysis of global, eurozone, UK, UK regions, NI and Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Ulster Bank NI PMI Slide Pack February 2017Richard Ramsey
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) February 2017 Survey Update provides the following key points:
1) The Eurozone's private sector growth rate was the highest in almost 6 years while the US growth rate slipped from its 14-month high.
2) Developed market PMIs slowed from 14-month highs while emerging markets hit a 29-month high.
3) Inflationary pressures remained intense across Northern Ireland, the UK, and the Republic of Ireland as input costs increased sharply.
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) December 2016Richard Ramsey
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) dslidepack. Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
China's factories suffered their fastest drop in activity in a year in April as new orders shrank, a private business survey showed on Monday, hardening the case for fresh policy stimulus to halt a slowdown in the world's second-largest economy. The HSBC/Markit Purchasing Managers'
Index (PMI) fell to 48.9 in April - the lowest level since April 2014 - from 49.6 in March, as demand faltered and deflationary pressures persisted.
Slidepack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slidepack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI report, April 2017, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Slide Pack - Jan...Richard Ramsey
Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector.
Growth of business activity remains solid, but inflationary pressures intensify.
The Northern Ireland private sector started 2017 on a positive note, with further increases in output, new orders and employment recorded in January. That said, rates of expansion eased from the end of last year. Meanwhile, price pressures continued to intensify, with rates of inflation for both input costs and output prices among the sharpest in the survey’s history.
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI September 2020 Slide PackRichard Ramsey
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) September 2020 - Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector.
September 2020 Survey Update
Savills european investment market 2014Jorge Larrea
2013 saw the highest volume of transactions since 2007, mostly thanks to record levels reached in the UK and Germany. While offices remained the dominant asset class, industrial investment saw the strongest growth. Prime yields continued falling in core markets like the UK, Germany and France but stabilized elsewhere, with investors increasingly looking outside major cities for opportunities with higher returns. Overall investment is forecast to rise slightly in 2014, with more diverse buyers and continued strong demand for prime assets.
"Macroeconomic Developments Report", January 2014Latvijas Banka
The document provides an overview of macroeconomic developments in Latvia and its major trade partners. Some key points:
- The IMF revised downwards GDP growth forecasts for many countries, particularly Russia, Estonia, and Finland. However, forecasts for the Eurozone were unchanged.
- In Q3 2013, exports and imports of Latvian goods contracted year-over-year due to weakening external demand and a strong base effect from previous years. Nevertheless, Latvia continued to expand its export market shares.
- In response to low inflation, the ECB and Latvijas Banka both unexpectedly lowered interest rates in November. Credit growth remained subdued as banks retained excess liquidity.
- Kuzbasskaya Toplivnaya Company OJSC (KTK) is a major Russian thermal coal producer and supplier. In 2013, KTK produced 10.15 million tonnes of coal.
- KTK reported revenue of $715 million in 2013, a 4% decrease from 2012. EBITDA declined 31% to $77 million and net income decreased 65% to $20 million.
- Production cash costs per tonne declined 12% to $19 in 2013. Domestic sales performed strongly while export sales declined as a percentage of total revenue and gross profit.
This document provides a summary of trends in Israeli exports for the first half of 2016. Some key points:
- Total exports of goods and services were virtually unchanged from the first half of 2015. Exports of goods fell 6% due to declines in industrial exports and diamonds, but this was offset by a 10% increase in exports of services.
- Exports of industrial goods fell 6% overall, driven by sharp declines in electronics, pharmaceuticals, and chemicals exports. Exports of industrial high-tech goods fell 9%.
- Exports declined to all major trading regions, including the European Union (-9%), Asia (-13%), the US (-3%), Latin America (-12%), and Africa (-24%). Declines
The beverage market in China is large and growing. The frozen beverages and edible ice market exceeded RMB 20 billion in 2009, growing more than 15%. Foreign companies hold over 10% of the market and 25% of total profits. The solid beverage market also exceeded RMB 20 billion in 2009, growing over 10%. Foreign firms hold over 30% of the market and 35% of total profits. Both markets saw increasing sales, production, and profits in recent years.
Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015Richard Ramsey
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, November 2015, including sectoral analysis and analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Northern Ireland December 2019 PMI Chart PackRichard Ramsey
Global output growth accelerated to an 8-month high in December due to stronger services activity, though manufacturing output slipped. Growth also picked up in the US, Eurozone, India, Spain and Ireland. The Northern Ireland PMI showed that while the rate of contraction eased, output and orders continued to decline across all sectors, with the steepest falls in Northern Ireland compared to other UK regions. Firms in Northern Ireland reported modest job losses and subdued inflationary pressures, alongside cautious optimism about future growth.
Lithuanian Economy - No 1, January 4, 2012Swedbank
The Lithuanian economy remained resilient in November despite weakening demand abroad. While manufacturing growth slowed, it continued to expand, and retail trade grew at its fastest pace since recovery began. Strong growth in the fourth quarter should help public finances as budget collection has lagged targets this year. However, both foreign and domestic demand are expected to slow in the coming year, easing inflation pressures.
Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) are monthly surveys of private sector companies which provide an advance indication of what is happening in the private sector economy by tracking variables such as output, new orders, employment and prices across different sectors.
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector.
Global gold demand fell 10% in Q3 to 992.8 tonnes due to weakness in bars, coins and jewelry as consumer demand was down 16% year-to-date. Exchange-traded products were the only area of growth, with inflows of 145.6 tonnes as investors continued adding to their strategic holdings. Recycling of gold increased 30% to 340.9 tonnes in Q3, reaching a 4-year high due to high gold prices and structural changes in some markets like India, where demand remained weak and the local price fell to a large discount against the international price.
Ulster Bank's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) surveys found that in March 2017:
1) Global output growth was just shy of a 13-month high, with growth accelerating in the UK, Eurozone, Russia, Japan, and India.
2) The Eurozone composite PMI hit a 6-year high, with strong growth in France and Germany.
3) In Northern Ireland, firms' output growth accelerated but new orders growth slowed to a 5-month low.
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI report, July 2017, including analysis of global, eurozone, UK, UK regions, NI and Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Ulster Bank NI PMI Slide Pack February 2017Richard Ramsey
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) February 2017 Survey Update provides the following key points:
1) The Eurozone's private sector growth rate was the highest in almost 6 years while the US growth rate slipped from its 14-month high.
2) Developed market PMIs slowed from 14-month highs while emerging markets hit a 29-month high.
3) Inflationary pressures remained intense across Northern Ireland, the UK, and the Republic of Ireland as input costs increased sharply.
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) December 2016Richard Ramsey
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) dslidepack. Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
China's factories suffered their fastest drop in activity in a year in April as new orders shrank, a private business survey showed on Monday, hardening the case for fresh policy stimulus to halt a slowdown in the world's second-largest economy. The HSBC/Markit Purchasing Managers'
Index (PMI) fell to 48.9 in April - the lowest level since April 2014 - from 49.6 in March, as demand faltered and deflationary pressures persisted.
Slidepack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slidepack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI report, April 2017, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Slide Pack - Jan...Richard Ramsey
Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector.
Growth of business activity remains solid, but inflationary pressures intensify.
The Northern Ireland private sector started 2017 on a positive note, with further increases in output, new orders and employment recorded in January. That said, rates of expansion eased from the end of last year. Meanwhile, price pressures continued to intensify, with rates of inflation for both input costs and output prices among the sharpest in the survey’s history.
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI September 2020 Slide PackRichard Ramsey
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) September 2020 - Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector.
September 2020 Survey Update
Savills european investment market 2014Jorge Larrea
2013 saw the highest volume of transactions since 2007, mostly thanks to record levels reached in the UK and Germany. While offices remained the dominant asset class, industrial investment saw the strongest growth. Prime yields continued falling in core markets like the UK, Germany and France but stabilized elsewhere, with investors increasingly looking outside major cities for opportunities with higher returns. Overall investment is forecast to rise slightly in 2014, with more diverse buyers and continued strong demand for prime assets.
"Macroeconomic Developments Report", January 2014Latvijas Banka
The document provides an overview of macroeconomic developments in Latvia and its major trade partners. Some key points:
- The IMF revised downwards GDP growth forecasts for many countries, particularly Russia, Estonia, and Finland. However, forecasts for the Eurozone were unchanged.
- In Q3 2013, exports and imports of Latvian goods contracted year-over-year due to weakening external demand and a strong base effect from previous years. Nevertheless, Latvia continued to expand its export market shares.
- In response to low inflation, the ECB and Latvijas Banka both unexpectedly lowered interest rates in November. Credit growth remained subdued as banks retained excess liquidity.
- Kuzbasskaya Toplivnaya Company OJSC (KTK) is a major Russian thermal coal producer and supplier. In 2013, KTK produced 10.15 million tonnes of coal.
- KTK reported revenue of $715 million in 2013, a 4% decrease from 2012. EBITDA declined 31% to $77 million and net income decreased 65% to $20 million.
- Production cash costs per tonne declined 12% to $19 in 2013. Domestic sales performed strongly while export sales declined as a percentage of total revenue and gross profit.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. April 2013Latvijas Banka
This document provides a macroeconomic developments report for April 2013. It summarizes economic conditions in Latvia and its major trade partners. While global growth is projected to be higher in 2013 than 2012, downside risks remain from a slower euro area recovery and issues in certain countries. Latvian exports reached peaks in late 2012, improving competitiveness, though investment activity declined. Domestic demand remains buoyed by private consumption while inflation is slowing.
Ramirent's interim report summarizes their financial performance in Q2 and the first half of 2013. Net sales decreased 5.3% in Q2 but were on par with 2012 when adjusting for divested operations. EBITA was MEUR 22.7 in Q2, down from MEUR 24.7 the previous year. Construction output is forecasted to decline slightly in the Nordic countries but increase in Norway, while renovation markets are expected to continue steady growth. Segment reviews showed improved results in Sweden and Norway but weaker performance in Finland and Denmark.
The document provides an overview and agenda for a presentation by STR Global on 2015 hotel insights and performance, including a global hotel market update, Europe performance, the impact of mega events like the Olympics and World Cup, and case studies on how certain cities were affected around major events. STR Global is a hotel benchmarking company that provides data-driven solutions for strategic decision making regarding occupancy rates, room supply and demand, revenue figures, and market forecasts. The presentation examines trends in regions worldwide and drills down into country and city-level hotel performance for the past year.
This document presents the consensus forecast for macroeconomic indicators in Ukraine from 2013-2016 as agreed upon by experts from various Ukrainian government institutions, international organizations, research institutes, and private sector organizations. The consensus forecast was developed through a seminar where experts discussed forecasts, economic trends, and research results to reach agreement on key indicators. The document provides the consensus forecasts for GDP growth, inflation, budget balances, trade, currency exchange rates, and other indicators for 2013-2014 in detail and average forecasts for 2015-2016. It also discusses risks to the forecasts for 2013-2014.
This document provides an overview of Kesko's performance and strategic plans presented by Jukka Erlund at an analyst meeting on December 18, 2015. Key points include: Kesko's sales and profitability figures have remained stable over the past year. The grocery trade division aims to gain market share in Finland by acquiring Suomen Lähikauppa. The home improvement trade is focusing on growth in Europe through both organic expansion and acquisitions. The car trade continues to be impacted by the Volkswagen emissions scandal but maintains a strong order backlog. Overall, Kesko is well positioned financially and pursuing growth across its strategic business areas.
The document summarizes Mongolia's economy and investment opportunities and challenges. It finds that while the economy is slowing, it is still growing. Foreign direct investment has declined but mining makes up the majority of investment. Exports are dominated by mining and China is the largest export partner and import source. Key legislation around investment and securities was recently passed to improve the investment climate after a period of political uncertainty. Infrastructure projects are a focus and the mining sector is expected to continue driving economic growth.
The document summarizes Mongolia's economy and investment opportunities and challenges. It finds that while the economy is slowing, it is still growing. Foreign direct investment has declined but mining makes up the majority of investment. Exports are primarily coal and copper while imports are mainly oil and machinery. Key legislation around investment and mining was recently passed to help boost investment. Infrastructure projects are a focus and the conclusion of Mongolia's election period may lead to more sustainable economic recovery and growth driven by the mining sector.
The document summarizes key hotel performance trends in Europe presented by Oliver Terry of STR Global. Some of the main points include:
- International tourist arrivals to Europe are forecast to grow in 2015.
- Southern and Eastern Europe saw the strongest RevPAR growth in 2014 driven by increases in both occupancy and ADR.
- Three of four European regions have returned to pre-financial crisis peak ADR levels.
- The UK saw strong growth outside of London, with regional markets like Manchester and Glasgow experiencing over 10% RevPAR growth. London growth was slower at 3.3% for the year.
- The UK pipeline is led by economy and midscale hotels, with London continuing to see strong development.
This document provides an overview of media landscape trends in Ukraine and Russia between 2005-2013. It summarizes data on various media markets including TV, radio, print, outdoor advertising, cinema, and internet for both countries. The key trends highlighted are:
- TV advertising spending and inventory grew substantially in both countries between 2005-2013, while the internet saw the highest growth rates.
- Ukraine's total ad spending is forecasted to grow 4% in 2013, while Russia's is forecasted to grow 11.7%. Internet advertising is projected to have the strongest growth in both countries at over 20% annually.
- Television remains the largest segment in both countries, accounting for around 45-50% of total ad spending
EU: Alcohols And Their Halogenated, Sulphonated, Nitrated Or Nitrosated Deriv...IndexBox Marketing
IndexBox Marketing has just published its report: “EU: Alcohols And Their Halogenated, Sulphonated, Nitrated Or Nitrosated Derivatives - Market Report. Analysis And Forecast To 2020”. This report focuses on the EU alcohol market, providing a comprehensive analysis and the most recent data on its market size and volume, EU trade, price dynamics, domestic production, and turnover in the industry. The market trends section reveals the main issues and uncertainties concerning the industry, while the medium-term outlook uncovers market prospects. The attractivity index (IB Index) summarizes the source of existing opportunities as they appear in this market, as well as an interpretation of the trade figures.
Kesko is a Finnish retail group with over 2,000 stores across eight countries. In 2013, Kesko had net sales of €9.2 billion and operating profit of €237 million. Kesko operates stores in food retail, home goods, building materials, and car sales. Kesko has been expanding its operations in Russia, with plans to grow its store networks in food retail and DIY. Kesko aims to strengthen sales growth, improve profitability, expand e-commerce, and utilize opportunities in the Russian market. As an investment, Kesko has a market capitalization of €2.8 billion and over 40,000 shareholders.
Magnit presented operational results for 1H 2016. Key metrics included:
- Revenue growth of 14.7% year-over-year to 522 billion rubles
- EBITDA margin of 9.89% and net margin of 5.01%
- Net debt to LTM EBITDA ratio of 0.9x
Magnit operates the largest retail chain in Russia with over 12,888 stores across 7 regions. Formats include convenience stores, hypermarkets, Magnit Family stores, and drogerie stores. The presentation reviewed store-level metrics and strategies for each format.
Magnit presented operational results for 1H 2016. Key metrics included:
- Revenue growth of 14.7% year-over-year to 522 billion rubles
- EBITDA margin of 9.89% and net margin of 5.01%
- Net debt to LTM EBITDA ratio of 0.9x
Magnit operates the largest retail chain in Russia with over 12,888 stores across 7 regions. Stores include convenience, hypermarkets, Magnit Family stores, and drogerie. Magnit aims to grow organically through new store formats while maintaining low prices and a focus on efficiency.
Magnit presented operational results for 1H 2016. Key metrics included:
- Revenue growth of 14.7% year-over-year to 522 billion rubles
- EBITDA margin of 9.89% and net margin of 5.01%
- Net debt to LTM EBITDA ratio of 0.9x
Magnit operates the largest retail chain in Russia with over 12,888 stores across 7 regions. Stores include convenience, hypermarkets, Magnit Family stores, and drogerie. Magnit has a multi-format strategy focused on growth, value, efficiency and vertical integration.
Deutsche EuroShop - Conference Call Presentation - Interim Report Q1 2013Deutsche EuroShop AG
Deutsche EuroShop held a conference call to discuss its Q1 2013 results. Key highlights included:
- Revenue increased 10% to €42.4 million due to the full consolidation of Herold-Center.
- Net operating income rose 12% to €38.6 million.
- EBIT increased 10% to €37.3 million.
- FFO per share grew 11% to €0.50, while EPRA earnings per share rose 18% to €0.40.
- The company forecasts revenue growth of 11-13% annually through 2014 and FFO per share growth of 4-7% through 2015.
Magnit presented operational results for the first half of 2016. Key metrics included:
- Revenue grew 14.7% year-over-year to 522 billion rubles.
- Net profit margin was 5.01% and EBITDA margin was 9.89%.
- The company operates 12,888 stores across seven federal regions of Russia under various formats including convenience stores, hypermarkets, Magnit Family stores, and drogerie stores.
- Formats showed mixed like-for-like sales growth from the prior year period, with convenience stores down 0.36%, hypermarkets down 2.48%, and drogerie stores up 10.86%.
Similar to Q4 2013 Real Estate Market presentation ENG (20)
Q1 2015 Marketbeat report in Russian and English: Commercial real-estate market overview
Обзор рынка коммерческой недвижимости за I кв. 2015 на русском и английском языках
Размещение офисов в зависимости от удаленности от центра. Влияние расстояния до центра горорда на арендную ставку. Плотность застройки и обеспеченность парковочными местами.
This document summarizes research on e-commerce and shopping centers in Russia. It finds that while online retail is growing rapidly at 20-30% annually, it still only accounts for 2% of total retail sales. Shopping centers also have significant growth potential and could make up a quarter of retail sales by 2020. The document also examines online and in-store shopping trends and predicts both will continue growing in importance through a multi-channel retail model. Infrastructure limitations may slow the growth rate of online retail in Russia.
Максим Карбасникофф, партнер и руководитель департамента торговой недвижимости Cushman & Wakefield, о рынке торговой недвижимости и перспективах его развития в Казахстане.
A slow start to 2013 in the Russian economy is now widely recog-nized. Jan-May GDP growth is recorded at 1.8%, about twice lower than the previous year. Government‟s forecast for 2013 is still at 2.4% and acceleration in the second half of the year is still a very likely scenario. IMF is a bit more optimistic and sticks to a 2.5% projection.
But this slowdown is an important marker of change. Russia is no longer part of the emerging markets world. It is in the more developed group not because of the slower growth but because of its higher economic base. Russian GDP per capita is 40% higher than the world average. With estimated 2.5% it is still in line with the global outlook of 3.1% and almost 3 times higher than 1.2% outlook for advanced economies. At the same time, with over $14,000 USD GDP per capita Russia is now closer to developed countries than to B(R)ICS.
Consumer market remains strong. Retail trade turnover in Jan-May increased by 11.4% in nominal terms in comparison to same period the previous year. Even after adjusting for inflation it shows strong growth of 4%.
Inflation is accelerating from 6.6% last year to a very likely 7% and higher for the current year. However, soft commodity prices may put pressure on food prices.
For real estate community this means that the sentiment remains negative without any material evidence and without new bearish fundamentals. All the existing factors are already priced in. Real estate market is in the green zone but risks are increasing. There is strong doubt that demand for real estate will grow. However, Rus-sia in general and Moscow specifically is still undersupplied with quality product.
That is why even during a weak second quarter, there was a signifi-cant increase in transactions in the warehouse sector. Supported by solid demand, construction rate had increased and warehouse sec-tor showed record levels of activity in Q2.
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3. RUSSIA’S GDP IN 2013
MARKETBEAT
Q4 2013
2013 slowdown
GDP AND CPI
GDP GROWTH AND MAIN DRIVERS
8%
15%
10%
4%
5%
2%
0%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013 F2014 F2015
ENERGY, GAS
AND WATER
-5%
PROCESSING
CARGO
TRANSPORTATIONS
FIXED
INVESTMENTS
MINING
AND EXTRACTION
PAID
SERVICES
RETAIL SALES
AGRICULTURAL
PRODUCTION
INDUSTRIAL
PRODUCTION
-2%
CONSUMER GOODS
AND OTHER SERVICES
2004
0%
TOTAL GDP
YoY change
6%
-10%
GDP growth, %
CPI YoY, %
• Economy was slowing down from Q2 to Q4 2013
• Ministry of Economic Development has reduced the forecast of Russia’s economy growth in 2013 from 3.4% to 1.8% in 2013
• The industrial production index is decreasing from the beginning of 2013
• The growth rate of mining and extraction was growing but at the same time the processing was falling down
• Retail sales remained the main driver of the economic recovery
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
2
4. MACRO PERFORMANCE AND FORECASTS
ROSSTAT’S ACTUAL
2012
2013
MARKETBEAT
Q4 2013
MINISTRY OF ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT
2013
2014
2015
URALSIB CAPITAL
2013
2014
2015
RENAISSANCE CAPITAL
2013
2014
2015
GDP, %
3.4
1.2*
1.8
2.5
2.8
1.7
2.4
3.5
1.6
3.3
-
CPI, %
6.6
7.0
6.0
6.2
4.9
6.5
4.2
4.7
6.8
5.5
-
Industrial production, %
2.6
0.1
0.7
2.2
2.3
0.4
2.3
2.6
0.0
4.2
-
Retail Trade turnover, %
5.4
3.9
4.2
3.5
4.4
3.6
3.9
4.3
6.4
6.2
-
Fixed investments, %
6.6
-1.4
2.5
3.9
5.6
0.2
4.0
5.8
-0.2
3.8
-
Disposable income, %
4.2
3.6*
3.4
3.1
3.0
3.9
4.0
4.1
-
-
-
* January-September
• We expect 2014 to bring some optimism to the real estate market
• The retail sector will remain stable, fuelled by consumer growth
Source: Ministry for Economic Development, URALSIB Capital, Renaissance capital
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
3
6. RUSSIAN INVESTMENT MARKET
MARKETBEAT
Q4 2013
INVESTMENT VOLUME IN 2010-2013
INVESTMENTS VOLUME 2013
Total investments into commercial real estate in
2013 was about $7.45 billion which is similar to the
volume of investments in 2012.
8,0
0,36
1,10
1,34
6,0
1,08
0,66
0,17
0,08
0,46
2,04
2,59
2,64
3,27
3,32
2,85
3,06
2010
billion USD
7,0
2011
2012
2013
Industrial
Other
5,0
4,0
3,0
2,0
1,0
1,40
Traditionally, the deals were closed in the biggest
cities. Moscow is an absolute leader by the amount
of investments and remains the investment center
of Russia. In 2013 about 70% of all investments
were attracted to Moscow.
0,0
Office
Retail
INVESTMENTS YOY % CHANGE AND SHARE
OF OFFICE AND RETAIL SEGMENTS
4,0
90%
3,5
80%
3,0
70%
2,5
60%
2,0
50%
40%
1,5
30%
1,0
20%
0,5
10%
2005
2006
Total investments
2007
2008
Office % of total
2009
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
Q4
Q3
0%
Q2
0,0
Q1
billion USD
100%
2010
Retail % of total
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
5
7. RUSSIAN INVESTMENT MARKET
MARKETBEAT
Q4 2013
INVESTMENTS VOLUME 2013
8,00
Other
0,36
BY SEGMENT
7,00
INVESTMENT SHARE IN 2013
5%
19%
Office segment registered most of the deals in 2013
and its share was more than 41%. The volume of
investments in offices was $3.06 billion.
41%
Industrial
1,40
35%
6,00
Office
Retail
Industrial
Other
4,00
22%
3,00
6%
Moscow
S. Peterburg
Other
INVESTMENT SHARE IN 2013
2,00
Office
3,06
2013 was a record year by investment volumes in
retail segment. Compared to the previous year the
growth was about 2%.
Industrial and warehouse segment hit the record
last year by the volume of investments. In 2013
total investments were about $1.4 billion, doubled
since 2012.
72%
BY ORIGIN
billion USD
Retail
2,64
BY REGION
INVESTMENT SHARE IN 2013
5,00
The total volume of investments in 2013 was $7.45
billion.
Moscow office and retail capitalization rates are
stable:
OFFICE
69%
1,00
domestic
8.5%
RETAIL
31%
9.0%
W&I
11.0%
foregin
0,00
2013
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
6
8. RETAIL MARKET
2013
NEW CONSTRUCTION IN MOSCOW 0.23 mn sq m
NEW CONSTRUCTION IN REGIONS
1.4 mn sq m (63 shopping malls)
PRIME RENTAL RATE INDICATOR
4,000 USD per sq m per annum, triple net
2014 FORECAST
NEW CONSTRUCTION IN MOSCOW 0.5 mn sq m
NEW CONSTRUCTION IN REGIONS
1.4 mn sq m
9. MOSCOW RETAIL MARKET
MARKETBEAT
Q4 2013
MOSCOW RETAIL SALES ACCOUNT FOR USD 112 bn.
THAT IS:
•More than ¼ of all retail sales in France
•1/3 of all retail sales in UK
•More than in Belgium, Netherlands and Poland
Moscow
•Twice as much as in Austria
•4 times as much as in Portugal
United Kingdom
•Almost 6 times as much as in Hungary
Netherlands
Poland
Belgium
France
Austria Hungary
Portugal
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
8
10. RETAIL MARKET VOLUME
MARKETBEAT
Q4 2013
Consumer spending
RUSSIA RETAIL TURNOVER
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX, %
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
-30%
-35%
-40%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Retail trade turnover growth, %
2014F
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
-10%
2007
-5%
Real personal disposable income growth, %
Consumer confidence index, %
Source: ROSSTAT
• According to Rosstat, real income of the Russian population in November 2013 grew up by 1.5%, comparing to November 2012.
Moreover, it increased by 3.6% in January-November 2013 relatively to the same period of time last year.
• The average monthly salary was 30,670 rubles in August 2013 and increased by 11.6% comparing to the past year.
• Total retail trade growth for January-November was 3.9%.
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
9
11. RETAILERS
MARKETBEAT
Q4 2013
Regional expansion
REGION
Cental
CITY
Moscow
Balashiha
Ivanovo
Bryansk
Lenta
Media Markt
Serpukhuv
Tver
Maloyatoslavets
Istra
Yaroslavl
Media Markt
Leroy Merlin
Lenta
NorthSaint-Petersburg
West
Privolshsky Kazan
Beloretsk
Nishny Novgorod
Nabereshny Chelny
Orenburg
Penza
Izhevsk
Ylyanovsk
Perm
Saratov
Ufa
Consumer
COMING SOON
Max Brenner
electronics
Montcler
Disney Store
1
7-Eleven
Wetzel’s Pretzel
Footwear
2
NEWCOMERS 2013
Marukame, Bata, Harman, Takko Fashion,
Nautika, The North Face, Chicco,
Trollbeads, Krispy Kreme, Marukame
Udon, Jamie's Italian, Smoothie Factory
Jack Wolfskin
Quiznos, Reima
Leroy Merlin
Gloria Jeans
Telemax
Sbarro
H&M
Lenta, Finn Flare
O'Key
REGION
CITY
NEWCOMERS 2013
COMING SOON
Southern
Volgograd
Armavir
Sochi
Taganrog
Krasnodar
Rostov-on-Don
Ekaterinburg
Tymen
Magnitogorsk
Leroy Merlin
Lenta
Bata, Louis Vuitton
Lenta
Barker , Hamleys
Starbucks
Uralsky
OBI, O'Key, Media
Markt
Lenta
Media Markt
Sibirsky
Disney Store
Leroy Merlin
Far East
Lenta
Miass
Chelaybinsk
Surgut
Nishny Tagil
Angarsk
Irkutsk
Krasnoyarsk
Novosibirsk
Nyagan
Novokuznetsk
Omsk
Tomsk
Vladivostok
Lentа, Joop!, O'Key
Decathlon
Decathlon, Media
Markt
Children goods
4
Bata, Starbucks
Starbucks
Fashion
20
Decathlon, Nespesso, Happylon
Auchan, Familia, Henderson,Leroy Merlin
Lego
Karusel
Lego
OBI
Lenta
Detsky Mir
Henderson
Lego
Karusel, Tomas Munz
New Yorker
Lenta
Lenta
Hamleys,Mamas&Pap
as
O'Key
Decathlon
Sport
goods
7
Metro Cash & Carry
PlanetaGotepriimstva
(Sbarro, Yamkee,
Vostochny bazar)
Variety
store
3
MAIN TRENDS OF THE MARKET
• Growing interest for smaller regional cities
Opening single mono-brand stores
Increasing Internet sales
DATA: Open sources
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
10
13. RETAIL FORMATS
MARKETBEAT
Q4 2013
Shopping centers dominate the market
QUALITY RETAIL FORMATS in RUSSIA,
2013 (BY SQ M)
Shopping
Centre
88.0%
FAHSION OUTLET
Mixed
Use
complex
11.9%
2013
2012
Outlet
centre
0.2%
Total GLA - 14.7 mn sq m in 506 retail stores
Outlet Village Belaya Dacha
(Phase 1), GLA 38, 000 sq
m, Moscow, Hines
Vnukovo Outlet Village
Phase 1, 16, 584 sq m,
Moscow, Diona
2013
Fashion House OutletMall, 28,760 sq m, Moscow,
Fashion House
Development
RETAIL PARK
RUSSIA RETAIL FORMATS
SHOPPING CENTRE
MIX-USE BUILDING / COMPLEX
DEPARTMENT STORE
RETAIL WAREHOUSE
STREET RETAIL
RETAIL PARK
FASHION OUTLET
2011
Solnechny, GLA 37,000 sq m
Saratov, Midland Development
2014
UNDER CONSTRUCTION : BellaVita,
GLA 35,000 sq m
Noginsk / Electrostal / Pavlovsky Posad,
Service Management & Consulting
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
12
14. SHOPPING CENTERS: RUSSIA
MARKETBEAT
Q4 2013
Expansion
QUALITY RETIAL SPACE ‘000 SQ M, RUSSIA (including Moscow)
NEW SHOPPING CENTERS, 2013
LOCATION
PROPERTY NAME
RETAIL GLA, SQ M
DELIVERY
THE LARGEST QUALITY PROJECTS IN RUSSIA, GLA 15,000+ sq m
1 296
1 828
1 895
1 620
1 872
1 561
1 635
1 667
1 426
1 944
2006
2007
2008
New construction
2009
2010
CW Forecast
2011
2012
2013
2014
forecast
Announced developers plans
• 63 new retail centers with a total area of more than 1.6 mn sq m were
delivered in Russia in 2013.The new construction volume in Russia is stable
at the level of 1.4-.8 mn sq m annually.
• Average area of newly constructed shopping centers is decreasing, in 2013 it
averaged 24,000 sq m and this is 30% lower than it was in 2011.
• According to developers’ plans 3.2 bn sq m of new quality retail space might
be delivered the next year in Russia, most likely around 60-70% will be
opened.
Volgograd
Bryansk
Tumen
Ufa
Yaroslavl
St. Petersburg
St. Petersburg
Belgorod
St. Petersburg
Armavir
Krasnoyarsk
Nizhnyi Novgorod
Taganrog
St. Petersburg
Syktyvkar
Magnitogorsk
Surgut
Ekaterinburg
St. Petersburg
Krasnodar
Groznyi
Tobolsk
Irkutsk
Korolev
Kostroma
Kaliningrad
Kursk
Tumen
Tumen
Tambov
Orel
Belgorod
Novosibirsk
Sochi
92,100
91,000
75,000
63,440
62,550
61,300
56,000
53,000
48,000
45,000
45,000
39,700
38,500
31,500
30,000
30,000
29,400
28,500
28,200
26,000
25,000
25,000
23,000
22,500
22,000
20,700
20,400
20,000
19,000
18,000
17,500
15,000
15,000
15,000
Aquarel'
Aero Park City
Kristall
Planeta
Aura
London mall
Kontinent
Mega Grinn
Zhemchuzhnaya Plaza
Krasnaya Ploschad
Komsomall
Indigo Life
Marmelad
Avenue
June (phase II)
Kontinent
Agora
Globus (phase I)
Kontinent na Zvezdnoy (phase II)
Galerea Krasnodar (phase II)
Grand Park
Zhemchuzhina Sibiri
Modniy Kvartal
Gelios
RIO
Europa Center (phase II)
Evropa 2
Voyazh
Magellan
Evropa
MegaGrinn (retail part)
City Mall Belgorodskiy (phase II)
Malinka
Mandarin
TOTAL GLA RUSSIA
Q1
Q4
Q4
Q4
Q4
Q4
Q1
Q1
Q3
Q4
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q4
Q4
Q4
Q3
Q3
Q4
Q2
Q2
Q4
Q3
Q3
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q3
1,435,513
* Moscow projects are on the next slide
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
13
15. SHOPPING CENTERS: MOSCOW
MARKETBEAT
Q4 2013
Structural changes
QUALITY RETAIL, ‘000 SQ M, MOSCOW
NEW SHOPPING CENTERS, 2013
LOCATION
PROPERTY NAME
MOSCOW
RIO-Leninskiy
Roomer
Fashion House Outlet-Mall
Otrada (phase II)
SportEX
Raikin Plaza
Vnukovo Outlet Village (phase 1)
VDNKh SC
329
567
Total GLA Moscow
400
379
337
2006
2007
197
2008
New construction
2009
2010
CW Forecast
2011
152
2012
231
LOCATION
MOSCOW
PROPERTY NAME
57,000
34,100
28,760
22,000
18,000
17,000
16,580
15,000
Q2
Q4
Q2
Q2
Q1
Q3
Q2
Q4
231,850
2014
forecast
Announced developers plans
Goodzone
Detsky Mir
Vodniy
Smolensky Passage (phase II)
Vesna!
Brateevo Mall
Vegas Crocus City
Mozaika
Total GLA Moscow
RETAIL GLA, SQ M
DELIVERY
235,000
94,975
67,000
58,900
56,000
56,000
50,530
40,300
33,000
19,780
16,000
15,000
15,000
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q4
Q4
Q4
Projects with GLA > 15,000 sq m
Moskvorechye
Kuntsevo Plaza
RIO-Kievskoe highway
Redevelopment of Industrial zone # 56
(TEN Development)
Aviapark
2013
• Five quality retail centers opened in Moscow in 2013.The largest of them
was Rio on Leninsky (GLA 57,000 sq m).
• Moscow region construction level was also moderate (comparing with
several previous years) – just 4 new shopping malls with total GLA less than
100,000 sq m have been opened in 2013.
•
DELIVERY
PLANNED FOR DELIVERY IN 2014
493
219
RETAIL GLA, SQ M
Projects with GLA 15,000 + sq m
822,968
There are 1.2 mn sq m of quality retail space which is under construction in Moscow at the moment planned for delivery in
2014-2015: Aviapark, that is going to become the largest shopping mall in Europe (GLA 235,000 sq m), Columbus (GLA
140,000 sq m), Vegas Crocus City (GLA 95,000 sq m), River Mall (GLA 91,200 sq m), Mosaika (GLA 67,000 sq m).
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
14
16. MOSCOW SHOPPING CENTERS
MARKETBEAT
Q4 2013
Quarterly monitoring
FOOTFALL, Q1 2010=100%
VACANCY RATE, %
120%
110%
100%
90%
80%
70%
1,7% 3,0% 1,6% 0,8% 1,0% 1,0% 1,0% 1,0% 0,4% 0,7% 0,8% 0,4% 0,4% 1,2% 0,6% 1,2% 1,1%
60%
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Q4
Q1 Q2 Q3
2009
2010
Shopping mall retail gallery structure
Q4 Q1 Q2
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2011
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2012
Q4
2013
“SUCCESSFUL SHOPPERS”, %
Other
Farmacy
44,3%
40,3%
40,3%
39,0%38,2%
39,3%
38,5%
37,1%
34,8%
Sportware
Homeware
30,8%30,6%
28,1%
Fashion
Children
goods
44,0%
41,2%
40,9%
39,1%
36,9%
Electronics,
mobile
Cosmetics
Footware
Accessories
Q4
Q1 Q2 Q3
2009
2010
Q4 Q1 Q2
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2011
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2012
Q4
2013
* Cushman&Wakefield Research quarterly monitoring of 9 quality shopping centers (total GLA - 0.5 mn sq m).
These shopping centers have been opened more than one year ago and have the established catchment area.
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17. MOSCOW SHOPPING CENTERS : RENTAL RATES
MARKETBEAT
Q4 2013
Rental rates are stable
PRIME RETAIL INDICATOR**, MOSCOW
QUALITY SHOPPING CENTERS RETAIL
GALLERY RENTAL RATES*
BUSINESS
GLA, SQ M
RETAIL GALLERY
<100
Food court
100 - 300 300 - 1,200
1,200 - 3,500
ANCHORS
3 600
3 125
$5,000-$8,000
Restaurant
3 750
3,500-7,000
$1,800-$2,000
Kiosks
MINI ANCHORS
4 000
3 800
3 000
2 600
$600-$1000
2 500
$700
Clothing
$1 600
$1 200
$700
$400
Shoes
$2 200
$1 700
$1 200
$800
White and Brown
Supermarket
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
$500
$500-$600
Hypermarket
$250-$450
Cinema
$250-$320
Q4 2013 prime retail indicator** is
4,000 USD
• A tendency towards rate increases was observed in Q2
and near future growth may be even higher than 5%
* US$ per sq m per annum, triple net
** Prime retail indicator—base asking rental rate for the 100-200 sq m gallery unit at the ground floor of the prime shopping centers, US$ per sq m per annum, triple net
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
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18. MOSCOW HIGH STREETS : RENTAL RATES
High streets are becoming more important
• The most important event for the high
streets became the development of
pedestrian zones in Moscow, which is
actively supported by the city government.
MARKETBEAT
Q4 2013
HIGH STREETS — PEDESTRIAN AREA
• There is a change of visitor flows (from
passengers to pedestrians) on those
streets, where the driving was cancelled (it
concerns Bolshaya Dmitrovka street first
of all).
• There is a huge potential for retail activity
talking about pedestrian streets and
retailers show great interest in developing
of those areas.
• The expansion of pedestrian zones will
significantly increase the supply of the
quality retail premises in Moscow.
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
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19. MOSCOW HIGH STREETS
MARKETBEAT
Q4 2013
High streets are becoming more important
• Nearly 5% of the existing premises are freely available (are offered for lease or being prepared for delivery) in the
central high streets.
• Rental rates in the trade corridors are stable.
• There is a tendency for increasing lease terms in the last few years. As an example, three years ago contracts used
to be short-term mostly (11 months) and now agreements for the 3 and 5 years period become more and more
widespread.
CATEGORY
Total
%
Food / Restaurants / Cafes
Fashion and footware
20%
30%
40%
Food / Restaurants / Cafes
Services
Accessories / Optics / Watches
Cosmetics / Pharmacy / Perfumery
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
13%
Vacant or non-operationable
10%
5%
Other
0%
5%
Cosmetics / Pharmacy / Perfumery
Petrovka-Kusnetsky Most
5%
Jewelry
Nikol'skaya
7%
Accessories / Optics / Watches
Tverskaya
14%
Bank / Exchange
Pyatnitskaya
19%
Services
Pokrovka-Maroseyka
32%
4%
GRAND TOTAL
100%
Fashion and footware
Bank / Exchange
Jewelry
Other
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20. LEASE TERMS
MARKETBEAT
Q4 2013
Behind the rent
ITEM
COMMENT
Lease Terms
Standard lease terms for gallery tenants are between 3-5 years, break options are rare. For anchor
tenants (including fashion anchors) lease terms are up to 20 -25 years and break option is becoming
popular.
Rental Payment
Rents are typically payable monthly in advance. Turnover / percentage rents are increasingly seen in
shopping centres. Rental rates are generally calculated in USD, Euro or commercial units are used. In
less quality shopping centres rental rates are calculated in RUR.
Rent Deposit
The rent deposit required in quality shopping centres is typically between 1 – 3 months rent equitant.
Indexation
Annual indexation is typical between 3-10% or at a level of USD / EU CPI. The practice of premium /
key money payments is seldom seen in Russia. Rent reviews are rare on the market.
Service Charges
Service charge is payable by tenants at either an “open book” basis or more common as a fixed cost.
Utilities payments are charged on consumption. Building insurance is normally charged back to tenant
via service charge.
Other costs
VAT 18%
Local property taxes are not payed separately, they are generally included in the service charges.
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
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21. OFFICE MARKET
2013 MOSCOW RESULTS
TOTAL STOCK
13.85 mn sq m
NEW DELIVERY 2013
0.89 mn sq m
TAKE-UP 2013
1.58 mn sq m
VACANCY RATE
11.93%
CLASS A AVERAGE RENTAL RATE
870 USD per sq m per year, triple net
MARKET TRENDS:
•
Overall demand level is decreasing.
•
Absorption is below the construction level.
•
Even a moderate growth of new office space affects the vacancy rate.
•
Rental rates growth (if any) is below inflation.
22. DEMAND
MARKETBEAT
Q4 2013
High tenant activity but with some weakening signs
TAKE-UP (’000 sq m)
2500
80%
83%
2006
2007
2000
75%
86%
86%
2009
2010
79%
80%
2011
2012
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
86%
1500
1000
500
0
2008
Class A
Forecast, Class A
2013
F2014
Class B (B+ and B-)
Forecast, Class B (B+ and B-)
•
Overall, 1.58 million sq m of quality office space was leased or bought during 2013.
•
Real estate budgets are limited and tenants tend to primarily consider their current location as a viable alternative to a new
office.
•
Tenants continue to be interested primarily in existing buildings, the proportion of pre-lease agreements* in 2013 was 2.3%
of the total rented space in 2013.
* Pre-lease deal — the deal for a space to be delivered 60 days or more after the deal date
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23. DEMAND
MARKETBEAT
Q4 2013
Absorption is behind new construction
ABSORPTION vs. NEW CONSTRUCTION (mn sq m)
2,14
1,81
1,49
1,38
1,35
0,90
1,08
0,89
0,65
0,76
0,57
0,68
0,49
0,30
2007
2008
2009
2010
New construction
2011
Absorption
2012
2013
•
In 2013 absorption was larger than in the previous year and was 680,000 sq m. Class B offices made the largest input to
the absorption growth. New construction continues to exceed absorption.
•
According to Cushman & Wakefield Research, 1% growth of GDP creates an additional demand for 100,000 – 200,000 sq
m of office space. Ministry of Economic Development forecasts GDP growth below 2% in 2013 and less than 3% in 20142015.
* Net absorption represents the change in the occupied stock within a market during the period.
Calculation: X – Y = Net Absorption.
X = Current stock – current vacancy
Y = Previous stock (same quarter, previous year) – previous vacancy (same quarter, previous year)
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
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24. OFFICE STOCK
MARKETBEAT
Q4 2013
New construction is drawn towards suburbs
NEW CONSTRUCTION (’000 SQ M)
Q4 2013
2000
1500
Q3 2013
1000
Q2 2013
500
Q1 2013
0
2006
Class A
2007
2008
Class B (B+ and B-)
2009
2010
2011
Forecast, Class A
2012
2013
F2014
Forecast, Class B (B+ and B-)
0
50
100
Downtown Class A
Central Class A
OTA Class A
150
200
250
300
350
Downtown Class B
Central Class B
OTA Class B
•
By the end of 2013, Moscow had 13.85 mn sq m of quality office space. New construction of 0.89 mn sq m was the highest since
2010. 49 business centers were delivered to the market, among them are Mercury City Tower, White Gardens, 9 Acres, Park
Pobedy, Lotte Business Center and Newton Plaza.
•
Only 25% of new quality office space meet Class A requirement, most office space is classified as Class B. About half of new
delivery is located in the suburbs (outside the Third Transport Ring).
•
The new construction was mostly located outside the historical center – 49.2% of new construction was built outside the Third
Transport Ring in 2013.
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25. AVAILABILITY
MARKETBEAT
Q4 2013
Availability is growing in Class A, stable in Class B
21,5%
AVAILABILITY
24,3%
20,8%
18,9%
15,7%
12,1%
9,4%
11,1%
4,5%
4,2%
2,7%
4,1%
2006
2007
Q4:21,0%
14,4%
9,6%
10,3%
10,3%
mn sq m, office rentable
VACANCY RATE
3,0
2,5
1.29
2,0
1,5
1,0
10,9%
Q4: 10,25%
6,0%
1.45
0,5
0,0
2008
2009
2010
Vacancy rate Class A
2011
2012
2013
Vacancy rate Class B
F2014
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Availability in existing buildings (EOP)
Available future supply (within 1 year) (EOP)
•
Altogether there is 1.45 mn sq m of available office premises in 464 existing buildings and 1.8 mn sq m is in buildings under
construction.
•
Class B vacancy rate was stable during the last 6 years, since 2011 it increased by less then 1%.
•
In 2013 Class A vacancy rate increased from 16.4% (December 2012) to 21.2% (December 2013), and the average is 18.9%.
The tendency of on increase in the Class A vacancy rate in Moscow will continue in 2014.
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
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26. RENTAL RATE
MARKETBEAT
Q4 2013
Rental rates remain unchanged in 2013
AVARAGE RENTAL RATES
1088
935
Q4: $880
731
711
734
645
807
796
850
870
Q4: $570
646
529
2006
509
2007
2008
2009
Class A
414
444
466
2010
2011
2012
530
500
2013
F2014
Class B (B+and B-)
•
At the end of 2012 and the beginning of 2013 market players were expecting positive dynamics and the result was rental rates
growth of 15% growth. But later rents were adjusted, as a result the average rental rate increase fell to 7-12% depending on the
class of the building and location. In the centre of Moscow (inside the Garden Ring, Novoslobodskiy district) and in Moscow-City
average class A rental rate grew most of all. Average class B+ rental rate grew most of all at the suburbs of Moscow.
•
In Class A, the average asking rental rate is $870.
•
In Class B, the average asking rental rate is stable at $530 (Class B+ $560).
•
Prime rents remain at $1,200 per sq m (triple net) per annum for the best office “trophy” premises in the Moscow market.
* Base asking rental rates, USD per sq m per annum, weitghted average for deals closed within the period, triple net
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27. WAREHOUSE & INDUSTRIAL
2013 SUMMURY
NEW CONSTRUCTION IN MOSCOW 850,000 sq m
NEW CONSTRUCTION IN REGIONS
310,000 sq m
PRIME RENTAL RATE INDICATOR
135 USD per sq m per annum, triple net
28. MOSCOW SUPPLY
MARKETBEAT
Q4 2013
New construction of quality warehouses (Classes A and B)
1600
1400
1200
2013
1000
New construction 850,000
sq m
Vacancy rate (class A) 1.5%
800
600
400
2014
200
Total pipeline 1,200,000
sq m
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014F
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29. RUSSIA SUPPLY
MARKETBEAT
Q4 2013
New construction of quality warehouses (Class A)
Other; 1.40%
Krasnodar; 0.78%
Voronezh; 1.40%
Rostov-on-Don;1.40%
N. Novgorod; 1.40%
Samara; 1.63%
Kazan; 2.51%
Novosibirsk; 2.88%
Ekaterinburg; 4.64%
St. Peterburg; 13.73%
10 000
8 000
6 000
2013
New construction
3,100,000 sq m
4 000
Moscow; 67.52%
2 000
0
2012
2013
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
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30. RUSSIA
MARKETBEAT
Q4 2013
Rental rates, USD per sq m per annum, triple net
$160
City
$140
$120
$100
$80
$60
$40
2008
St. Petersburg
2009
2010
Ekaterinburg
2011
Rostov-On-Don
2012
Moscow
2013
2014F
Moscow
St. Petersburg
Ekaterinburg
Nizhnyi Novgorod
Samara
Kazan
Rostov-On-Don
Krasnodar
Novosibirsk
Ufa
Avg base rental rates,
USD / annum
130-140
130-135
130-135
120-125
110-115
90-100
120-125
120-125
110-125
120-125
Avg leased area,
sq m
10,000-15,000
2,000-10,000
5,000-10,000
3,000-5,000
3,000-5,000
3,000-5,000
3,000-5,000
3,000-5,000
2,000-5,000
3,000-5,000
Novosibirsk
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
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32. DEMAND STRUCTURE
MARKETBEAT
Q4 2013
DEMAND STRUCTURE, MOSCOW REGION
DEMAND STRUCTURE, OTHER REGIONS
13%
19% Distributor
22%
32%
16% Logistic
22%
10% Other
14%
12% Logistic
1%
Other
15% Producer
5%
2%
25% Producer
3%
Distributor
31%
59% Retailer
39%
2012
30% Retailer
2013
29%
2012
2013
• The majority of transactions in W&I segment in Moscow region are carried out by retail companies, which are
also the market leaders in terms of leased sq m.
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