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First Quarter
Alliance Data       Results
NYSE: ADS       April 22, 2009
Earnings Release – April 22, 2009                                         2




    Agenda
        • First Quarter Results

        • Segment Results

            • Spotlight – Epsilon Marketing Services
                                    Bryan Kennedy, President of Epsilon
        • Second Quarter and Full-Year Outlook
Earnings Release – April 22, 2009                                          3




     1st Quarter Consolidated Results

      Revenues                      - constant currency   $518MM    +4%
                                    - reported            $480MM    - 4%



      Adjusted EBITDA               - constant currency   $160MM    - 2%
                                    - reported            $152MM    - 8%



      Cash EPS                      - constant currency     $1.27   +27%
                                    - reported              $1.19   +19%
Earnings Release – April 22, 2009                                                 4




     Loyalty Services Canada (constant currency)
         • Strongest 1st Quarter in its History

         • Revenues Grew 17%, Adjusted EBITDA Grew > 50%

         • Renewed Shell-Canada (Top 10 ADS; Top 5 Loyalty) and Goodyear-Canada

         • Miles Redeemed Grew 12%
             • Recession not changing behavior

         • Miles Issued Weak (-4%)
             • Weak quarters not unprecedented (2001, 2002, 2008)

             • Expect strong snapback by summer

                  • New value-enhanced launches by sponsors

                  • Gas price driven volume anniversaries Q3

                  • Home improvement category driven by tax changes

         • Outlook: Strong Results to Continue (FX anniversaries Q4)
Earnings Release – April 22, 2009                                                 5




     Epsilon Marketing Services
            • Q1 Relatively Flat Against Toughest 2008 Comp

            • 60% of Segment (Database, Analytics, Digital) Double-digit Growth

                • Dynamic & Perpetual Data Driven Services

                • $700B Shift to Accountable Marketing Programs

                • Shift to Email Marketing Solutions

            • 40% of Segment (Data, Agency) Negative, but Ramping

            • New Wins at Record Pace:

                • 5 Database/Analytics

                • 15 Digital

            • Q2: • Database, Analytics, Digital: Growth to Continue

                         • Data, Agency: Returning to Growth
            • Full-Year Outlook: Tracking to 7% Top/Bottom Performance
Earnings Release – April 22, 2009                                                                    6




                Epsilon Marketing Services
                • Strength of Epsilon’s Business Model
                    • Demand for measurable, “accountable” marketing increases in a downturn


                    • 3 Critical Ingredients:
                        DATA –                  identify and understand customer behavior

                                    +
                        STRATEGY –              agency capabilities to design, analyze, measure &
                                                execute programs across channels
                                    +
                        TECHNOLOGY –            best-in-class assets & services to manage customer
                                                marketing programs and platforms
                                ↓
                        = FULL SERVICE EXECUTION, FULLY INTEGRATED DELIVERY
Earnings Release – April 22, 2009                                                              7




    Private Label: Services and Credit
         • Services (Network, Customer Care, Marketing): Both Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA Up

         • Credit: Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA Down



         • Combined: Adjusted EBITDA ↓ 20% ($25MM)



                                    ↑ 10% (v. 0% 2008)
   (+) Portfolio
                                    ↑ 3% (v. -3% 2008)
           Credit Sales
           Funding Costs Better
           Yields Stable
           Pipeline Strong/ Wins Included HSN, Haband, Springstone, and PacSun – (Renewal)


                                    ↑ 180 bps (8.8% v. 7% 2008)
    (–) Credit Losses
           I/O Growover             $0 v. + $10MM 2008
Earnings Release – April 22, 2009                                                                          8




 Private Label: Services & Credit
      • Outlook – Credit Losses
                                           2007                       2008               2009e
      • Avg. Unemployment Rate             4.7%                       6.1%              *8.5%
                                                  } 110bps                   } 120bps           } 100bps
      • Total Credit Losses                5.8%                       7.3%               9.5%

     *(assumed unemployment trend 7.6% Jan; 9.5% Dec)

      • Outlook –
           • Q1 losses 8.8%
           • Q2 seasonality – losses ↑ 70bps v. Q1, then settle down
           • Funding saves to mitigate rise in losses
           • Credit Loss drag begins to narrow in back half of year
           • Full-year I/O growover drag ($30MM) to anniversary end Q4
                                    ↓
           • Summary: Front-half 2009 tough, back-half 2009 improving, 2010 Solid
Earnings Release – April 22, 2009                                               9




            Balance Sheet
             ($MM)                                       As of March 31, 2009

             Cash and Cash Equivalents                             $322
             Redemption Settlement Assets (Trust Cash)               514
               Total Assets                                       $4,500

             Deferred Revenue                                      $946
             CD’s                                                    933
             Core Debt                                             1,631
               Total Liabilities                                  $4,086

             Stockholders’ Equity                                  $414
             Key Metric:
             • Net Core Debt / LTM Op. EBITDA (Op. Cash Flow) approx. 2.0x
Earnings Release – April 22, 2009                                                                           10



 Guidance
           Q2: Sequential Comparison to Q1 2009
           • Private Label’s Weakest Quarter
               • 80% of Q1 → (18¢) Seasonality – lower finance income and higher credit losses
           • Lack of FX Benefit on Investments (4¢)
           • Positives: Epsilon, Buyback
                          ↓
                   Q1: Actual                                        $1.19
               •
                   Q2: Private Label Seasonality                     ($.18)
               •
                   Q2: No FX Benefit on Investments                  (0.04)
               •
                   Q2: Epsilon, Buyback                               0.08
               •


               • Q2 Outlook                                          $1.05      (constant currency $1.18)



           Full-Year Outlook
           • Maintain Cash EPS of at Least $5.15, ↑17%
               • FX Hit of ($140MM) Revenues & ($40MM) Adjusted EBITDA
                  • ($40MM) Revenues & ($15MM) Adjusted EBITDA Worse than Plan
               • Credit Losses ($30MM) Revenues & ($30MM) Adjusted EBITDA Worse than Plan
                  • 9.5% Loss Rate ↑ 70bps v. Plan
               • Funding Costs $30MM Revenues and $30MM Adjusted EBITDA Better than Plan
Earnings Release – April 22, 2009                                      11




    2009 Free Cash Flow ($MM)

      Adjusted EBITDA                $660
      Loyalty Adjusted              $30-40

      Operating EBITDA               $700

      CAPEX, Cash Interest, Taxes   ($340)

      Free Cash Flow                 $360

      Per Share                      $6.00   (prior estimate: $5.75)
Earnings Release – April 22, 2009                                           12




     Top Investor Questions
         1. Liquidity: $550MM Conduit & $709MM TALF Completed
         2. Credit Losses: Trending Moderately Higher (no spikes);
                                    Denominator Growth Helping
         3. Non-cash Compensation:
                   Q1 ($18M) v. ($6MM) last year
             •

                   Timing only: full-year flat to 2008 ($49MM)
             •

         4. FAS140: Capital (cash flow), Liquidity and Accounting

                   Perspective: Top ten banks - $2 - $3 Trillion impacted
             •

         5. Buyback: Mitigate FX & I/O Growovers
Earnings Release – April 22, 2009                                                                                                  13




           2003-2009e
           (in $MM, except per share)
                                                                                                                           $5.15
                     Adjusted EBITDA                                                        Cash EPS
                                                                                                                   $4.42
                                                           $660
                                                   $655

                                           $632
                                 GR                                                            R           $3.88
                                                                                             AG
                               CA                                                          C
                           %                                                           %
                        23                                                        31               $3.14
                                    $498




                       $321

                                                                                       $1.99
             $255
                                                                          $1.54


    $189                                                          $1.00




                                                                   2003    2004        2005        2006    2007    2008    2009e
    2003      2004     2005         2006   2007   2008    2009e

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Q1 2009 Earning Report of Alliance Data Systems

  • 1. First Quarter Alliance Data Results NYSE: ADS April 22, 2009
  • 2. Earnings Release – April 22, 2009 2 Agenda • First Quarter Results • Segment Results • Spotlight – Epsilon Marketing Services Bryan Kennedy, President of Epsilon • Second Quarter and Full-Year Outlook
  • 3. Earnings Release – April 22, 2009 3 1st Quarter Consolidated Results Revenues - constant currency $518MM +4% - reported $480MM - 4% Adjusted EBITDA - constant currency $160MM - 2% - reported $152MM - 8% Cash EPS - constant currency $1.27 +27% - reported $1.19 +19%
  • 4. Earnings Release – April 22, 2009 4 Loyalty Services Canada (constant currency) • Strongest 1st Quarter in its History • Revenues Grew 17%, Adjusted EBITDA Grew > 50% • Renewed Shell-Canada (Top 10 ADS; Top 5 Loyalty) and Goodyear-Canada • Miles Redeemed Grew 12% • Recession not changing behavior • Miles Issued Weak (-4%) • Weak quarters not unprecedented (2001, 2002, 2008) • Expect strong snapback by summer • New value-enhanced launches by sponsors • Gas price driven volume anniversaries Q3 • Home improvement category driven by tax changes • Outlook: Strong Results to Continue (FX anniversaries Q4)
  • 5. Earnings Release – April 22, 2009 5 Epsilon Marketing Services • Q1 Relatively Flat Against Toughest 2008 Comp • 60% of Segment (Database, Analytics, Digital) Double-digit Growth • Dynamic & Perpetual Data Driven Services • $700B Shift to Accountable Marketing Programs • Shift to Email Marketing Solutions • 40% of Segment (Data, Agency) Negative, but Ramping • New Wins at Record Pace: • 5 Database/Analytics • 15 Digital • Q2: • Database, Analytics, Digital: Growth to Continue • Data, Agency: Returning to Growth • Full-Year Outlook: Tracking to 7% Top/Bottom Performance
  • 6. Earnings Release – April 22, 2009 6 Epsilon Marketing Services • Strength of Epsilon’s Business Model • Demand for measurable, “accountable” marketing increases in a downturn • 3 Critical Ingredients: DATA – identify and understand customer behavior + STRATEGY – agency capabilities to design, analyze, measure & execute programs across channels + TECHNOLOGY – best-in-class assets & services to manage customer marketing programs and platforms ↓ = FULL SERVICE EXECUTION, FULLY INTEGRATED DELIVERY
  • 7. Earnings Release – April 22, 2009 7 Private Label: Services and Credit • Services (Network, Customer Care, Marketing): Both Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA Up • Credit: Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA Down • Combined: Adjusted EBITDA ↓ 20% ($25MM) ↑ 10% (v. 0% 2008) (+) Portfolio ↑ 3% (v. -3% 2008) Credit Sales Funding Costs Better Yields Stable Pipeline Strong/ Wins Included HSN, Haband, Springstone, and PacSun – (Renewal) ↑ 180 bps (8.8% v. 7% 2008) (–) Credit Losses I/O Growover $0 v. + $10MM 2008
  • 8. Earnings Release – April 22, 2009 8 Private Label: Services & Credit • Outlook – Credit Losses 2007 2008 2009e • Avg. Unemployment Rate 4.7% 6.1% *8.5% } 110bps } 120bps } 100bps • Total Credit Losses 5.8% 7.3% 9.5% *(assumed unemployment trend 7.6% Jan; 9.5% Dec) • Outlook – • Q1 losses 8.8% • Q2 seasonality – losses ↑ 70bps v. Q1, then settle down • Funding saves to mitigate rise in losses • Credit Loss drag begins to narrow in back half of year • Full-year I/O growover drag ($30MM) to anniversary end Q4 ↓ • Summary: Front-half 2009 tough, back-half 2009 improving, 2010 Solid
  • 9. Earnings Release – April 22, 2009 9 Balance Sheet ($MM) As of March 31, 2009 Cash and Cash Equivalents $322 Redemption Settlement Assets (Trust Cash) 514 Total Assets $4,500 Deferred Revenue $946 CD’s 933 Core Debt 1,631 Total Liabilities $4,086 Stockholders’ Equity $414 Key Metric: • Net Core Debt / LTM Op. EBITDA (Op. Cash Flow) approx. 2.0x
  • 10. Earnings Release – April 22, 2009 10 Guidance Q2: Sequential Comparison to Q1 2009 • Private Label’s Weakest Quarter • 80% of Q1 → (18¢) Seasonality – lower finance income and higher credit losses • Lack of FX Benefit on Investments (4¢) • Positives: Epsilon, Buyback ↓ Q1: Actual $1.19 • Q2: Private Label Seasonality ($.18) • Q2: No FX Benefit on Investments (0.04) • Q2: Epsilon, Buyback 0.08 • • Q2 Outlook $1.05 (constant currency $1.18) Full-Year Outlook • Maintain Cash EPS of at Least $5.15, ↑17% • FX Hit of ($140MM) Revenues & ($40MM) Adjusted EBITDA • ($40MM) Revenues & ($15MM) Adjusted EBITDA Worse than Plan • Credit Losses ($30MM) Revenues & ($30MM) Adjusted EBITDA Worse than Plan • 9.5% Loss Rate ↑ 70bps v. Plan • Funding Costs $30MM Revenues and $30MM Adjusted EBITDA Better than Plan
  • 11. Earnings Release – April 22, 2009 11 2009 Free Cash Flow ($MM) Adjusted EBITDA $660 Loyalty Adjusted $30-40 Operating EBITDA $700 CAPEX, Cash Interest, Taxes ($340) Free Cash Flow $360 Per Share $6.00 (prior estimate: $5.75)
  • 12. Earnings Release – April 22, 2009 12 Top Investor Questions 1. Liquidity: $550MM Conduit & $709MM TALF Completed 2. Credit Losses: Trending Moderately Higher (no spikes); Denominator Growth Helping 3. Non-cash Compensation: Q1 ($18M) v. ($6MM) last year • Timing only: full-year flat to 2008 ($49MM) • 4. FAS140: Capital (cash flow), Liquidity and Accounting Perspective: Top ten banks - $2 - $3 Trillion impacted • 5. Buyback: Mitigate FX & I/O Growovers
  • 13. Earnings Release – April 22, 2009 13 2003-2009e (in $MM, except per share) $5.15 Adjusted EBITDA Cash EPS $4.42 $660 $655 $632 GR R $3.88 AG CA C % % 23 31 $3.14 $498 $321 $1.99 $255 $1.54 $189 $1.00 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009e 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009e