Looking for ways to create products of the future? In this presentation we will walk through the 10 steps to learn how to predict the future to ensure your innovation process learns froms the past and prepares for the future.

1. Punchcut // design and Innovation for the connected world 1Punchcut // design and Innovation for the connected world
HOW TO
PREDICT
THE FUTURE
IN JUST 10
EASY STEPS.
visioneering PCT 2015
Innovation Insight
Internal Session

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P C T

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PCT

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It is change, continuing change, inevitable
change, that is the dominant factor in society
today. No sensible decision can be made any
longer without taking into account not only the
world as it is, but the world as it will be.”
ISAAC ASIMOV
“

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How to Predict the Future
in Just 10 Easy Steps!

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01 look backwards
02
03
04
harness technology
question assumptions
serve people
05
06
07
guess smarter
08
09
invent the future
make it better
get to work
think big and small
10 rinse and repeat

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look
backwards
7
STEP 1

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You can’t connect the dots looking
forward. You can only connect them
looking backwards.”
STEVE JOBS
8
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PAST FUTUREPRESENT
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PAST FUTUREPRESENT
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PAST FUTUREPRESENT
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Apple (1984)

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VIDEO CALLING

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Recognize past
patterns.

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Jean Marc Côté (1899)

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Metropolis (1927)
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Philco-Ford (1967)

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2001: A Space Odyssey (1968)

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British Telecom (1969)

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Star Wars (1977)

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Superman (1978)

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Blade Runner (1982)

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VIDEO CALLING

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VIDEO CALLING

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VIDEO CALLING

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VIDEO CALLING

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Apple (1987)

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Apple (1987)

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Apple (1987)

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Apple (2011)

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Learn from the
past to predict
the future.

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harness
technology
32
STEP 2

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Our intuition about the future is
linear. But the reality of information
technology is exponential.”
RAY KURZWEIL
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LINEAR

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EXPONENTIAL

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EXPONENTIAL

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LINEAR

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EXPONENTIAL

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Channel the
power of
technology.

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Jean Marc Côté (1899)
Telegraph + Phonograph + Cinema

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Create new
combinations of
technologies.

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British Telecom (1969)

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Microsoft (2011)

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Illustrate the
experience, not
the machinery.

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Jean Marc Côté (1899)

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Jean Marc Côté (1899)

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Jean Marc Côté (1899)

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Jean Marc Côté (1899)

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Jean Marc Côté (1899)

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Philco-Ford (1967)

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Microsoft (2015)

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20,000 Leagues Under the Sea (1870)

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Don’t venerate
technology for
it’s own sake.

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question
assumptions
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STEP 3

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If we all worked on the assumption
that what is accepted as true is
really true, there would be little
hope of advance.”
ORVILLE WRIGHT
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LINEAR

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EXPONENTIAL

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HYPERBOLIC

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LOGISTIC

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GAUSSIAN

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?????

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Smartphone Screen Size (2007-2014)

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Mobile Phone Size (1990-2015)

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Mobile Phone Size (2001)

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Zoolander (2001)

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Saturday Night Live (2001)

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Don’t be slavish
to past patterns.

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Trends don’t have
to be followed.

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serve
people
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STEP 4

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Good design must primarily
serve people.”
THOMAS J. WATSON
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Design is for, by
& about people.

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Saturday Night Live (2001)

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Design for
human scale.

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74Private and confidential. All rights reserved.
Her (2013)

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Meet people
where they are
& how they are.

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Maslow’s
Hierarchy
of Needs
(1943)
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While culture
changes, core
needs don’t.

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Philco-Ford (1967)

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Microsoft (2011)

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Ground future
predictions in
human needs.

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guess
smarter
81
STEP 5

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We must become more
comfortable with probability
and uncertainty.”
NATE SILVER
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Know what you
don’t know.

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Fog of War

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PAST FUTUREPRESENT
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The Monty Hall Problem (1975)

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The Monty Hall Problem (1975)

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PAST FUTUREPRESENT
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PAST
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FUTURE

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FUTUREPAST
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PAST
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Bayes’ Theorem (1763)
Posterior Probability

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The Monty Hall Problem (1975)
Bayes’ Theorem Solution

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Math is hard.

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The Monty Hall Problem (1975)
Simple Solution

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The Monty Hall Problem (1975)
Simple Solution

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Update your
ideas when you
know more.

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invent
the future
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STEP 6

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The future cannot be predicted,
but futures can be invented.”
DENNIS GABOR
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Roads? Where
we’re going, we
don’t need roads.

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Back to the Future Part III (1990)

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Write your own
future. Make your
own path.

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make
it better
103
STEP 7

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You don't need to predict the future. Just choose a
future — a good future, a useful future — and make
the kind of prediction that will alter human emotions
and reactions in such a way that the future you
predicted will be brought about. Better to make a
good future than predict a bad one.”
ISAAC ASIMOV
“

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Prediction is
self-fulfilling.

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Rosenthal-Jacobson Study (1968)
Pygmalion Effect

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Spiderman (1962)
With great power comes great responsibility.

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Use your powers
for good.

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get
to work
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STEP 8

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We can only see a short distance
ahead, but we can see plenty there
that needs to be done.”
ALAN TURING
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Don’t just talk.
Make something.

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Just Do It (2015)

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Make it real &
it might really
be made.

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think
big & small
114Private and confidential. All rights reserved.
STEP 9

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You've got to think about big things
while you're doing small things,
so that all the small things go in the
right direction.”
ALVIN TOFFLER
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Work the problem
from both sides.

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Golden Gate Bridge (1937)

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Golden Gate Bridge (1937)

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Set a vision and
work towards it.

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rinse
& repeat
120
STEP 10

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The future ain’t what it used to be.”
YOGI BERRA
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Please move your
gamepiece back
to Step 1.

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On to the Next One (2010)

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There is no perfect.
There is no done.

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125Private and confidential. All rights reserved.
Futuredays
Isaac Asimov
FUTURE READING
Inventing
the Future
Dennis Gabor
Future Shock
Alvin Toffler
The Singularity
Is Near
Ray Kurzweil
The Signal
& the Noise
Nate Silver
Make It So
Nathan Shedroff
Christopher Noessel

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Go make
the future.

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P C T

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punchcut.com
hello@punchcut.com
@punchcut
Punchcut is a human interface design
and innovation company specializing
in connected products and services.
We envision, design and realize future
product and service experiences that
engage customers and transform
businesses in a connected world.
thank you
Nate Cox
Senior Director, Solutions
PUNCHCUT