1. PROTECTING YOUR PROJECT
MANAGEMENT CAREER
Understanding the Planning Fallacy,
Complexity, and the Soul of Project
Management
Dr John Hogan PhD

2. THAT’S A MOUTHFUL-WHAT DO WE
MEAN BY THESE TERMS
PROTECTING YOUR CAREER-
THE PLANNING FALACY-
COMPLEXITY-

3. THAT’S A MOUTHFUL-WHAT DO WE
MEAN BY THESE TERMS
PROTECTING YOUR CAREER-
THE PLANNING FALACY-
COMPLEXITY-
WE’RE GOING TO BE SELFISH IN THIS PRESENTATION. A
STAKEHOLDER WILL BE THOUGHT OF AS ANYONE WHO
HAS A SAY ON WHETHER YOU ADVANCE IN YOUR CAREER

4. THAT’S A MOUTHFUL-WHAT DO WE
MEAN BY THESE TERMS
PROTECTING YOUR CAREER-
THE PLANNING FALACY-
COMPLEXITY-
WE’RE GOING TO BE SELFISH IN THIS PRESENTATION. A
STAKEHOLDER WILL BE THOUGHT OF AS ANYONE WHO
HAS A SAY ON WHETHER YOU ADVANCE IN YOUR CAREER
THE INABILITY OF HUMANS TO TAKE
OPTIMISM OUT OF THEIR PLANS

5. THAT’S A MOUTHFUL-WHAT DO WE
MEAN BY THESE TERMS
PROTECTING YOUR CAREER-
THE PLANNING FALACY-
COMPLEXITY-
WE’RE GOING TO BE SELFISH IN THIS PRESENTATION. A
STAKEHOLDER WILL BE THOUGHT OF AS ANYONE WHO
HAS A SAY ON WHETHER YOU ADVANCE IN YOUR CAREER
THE INABILITY OF HUMANS TO TAKE
OPTIMISM OUT OF THEIR PLANS
THE UNFORSEEN INTERACTION AND EMERGENT
BEHAVIOR OF ENTITIES WHICH CAN AFFECT YOUR
PROJECT’S OUTCOME

6. AND OF COURSE PROJECT MANAGEMENT
THE CREATION OF A NEW AND UNIQUE PRODUCT OR
SERVICE OVER A DEFINED PERIOD OF TIME WITH A
LIMITED SET OF RESOURCES

7. PROJECT MANAGEMENT IS COMPOSED OF PLANNING
AND EXECUTION

8. PROJECT MANAGEMENT IS COMPOSED OF PLANNING
AND EXECUTION
-A PROCESS UNDERTAKEN TO PREDICT THE FUTURE

9. PROJECT MANAGEMENT IS COMPOSED OF PLANNING
AND EXECUTION
-A PROCESS UNDERTAKEN TO PREDICT THE FUTURE
-COMPLETING TASKS THAT WERE DEFINED IN THE PAST

10. DOES ANYONE SEE A PROBLEM
HERE?

11. HUMANS CANNOT
PREDICT THE FUTURE

12. WE HAVE THE PLANNING FALLACY
(COINED BY NOBEL PRIZE WINNER DANIEL KAHNEMAN IN HIS 2011 BEST SELLER
THINKING FAST AND SLOW)

13. WE HAVE THE PLANNING FALLACY
(COINED BY NOBEL PRIZE WINNER DANIEL KAHNEMAN IN HIS 2011 BEST SELLER
THINKING FAST AND SLOW)
PROJECT TEAMS ARE EMOTIONALLY AND POLITICALLY DRAWN TO
PORTRAYING THE BEST CASE SCENARIO FOR THEIR COST AND SCHEDULE
PERFORMANCE AS THE MOST LIKELY (THE INSIDE VIEW)
WHILE
IGNORING THE PERFORMANCE DATA FROM ALL OTHER PROJECTS IN THEIR
REFERENCE CLASS (THE OUTSIDE VIEW)

14. WE HAVE THE PLANNING FALLACY
(COINED BY NOBEL PRIZE WINNER DANIEL KAHNEMAN IN HIS 2011 BEST SELLER
THINKING FAST AND SLOW)
PROJECT TEAMS ARE EMOTIONALLY AND POLITICALLY DRAWN TO
PORTRAYING THE BEST CASE SCENARIO FOR THEIR COST AND SCHEDULE
PERFORMANCE AS THE MOST LIKELY (THE INSIDE VIEW)
WHILE
IGNORING THE PERFORMANCE DATA FROM ALL OTHER PROJECTS IN THEIR
REFERENCE CLASS (THE OUTSIDE VIEW)
FOR EXAMPLE
THE AVERAGE COST/SCHEDULE OVERRUN FOR THE 98 MAJOR DEFENSE
ACQUISITION PROGRAMS IS $40B/22 MONTHS
YET, EACH NEW DoD PROJECT TEAM BELIEVES (AND CONVINCES CONGRESS)
THEIR INITIATIVE WILL BE DIFFERENT

15. WE HAVE COMPLEXITY
(SEE A LEADER’S FRAMEWORK FOR DECISION MAKING BY DAVID J. SNOWDEN
AND MARY E. BOONE IN THE 2007 HARVARD BUSINESS REVIEW)

16. WE HAVE COMPLEXITY
(SEE A LEADER’S FRAMEWORK FOR DECISION MAKING BY DAVID J. SNOWDEN
AND MARY E. BOONE IN THE 2007 HARVARD BUSINESS REVIEW)
PROJECT MANAGEMENT BY ITS DEFINITION RESULTS IN UNIQUE PRODUCTS OR
SERVICES-PRODUCTS OR SERVICES THAT PREVIOUSLY DID NOT EXIST
IF THESE PRODUCTS OR SERVICES INTERACT WITH OTHER COMPONENTS, ALREADY
DEVELOPED OR IN DEVELOPMENT, THE PROACTIVE PROJECT MANAGER MUST BE
AWARE OF THESE INTERACTIONS

17. WE HAVE COMPLEXITY
(SEE A LEADER’S FRAMEWORK FOR DECISION MAKING BY DAVID J. SNOWDEN
AND MARY E. BOONE IN THE 2007 HARVARD BUSINESS REVIEW)
PROJECT MANAGEMENT BY ITS DEFINITION RESULTS IN UNIQUE PRODUCTS OR
SERVICES-PRODUCTS OR SERVICES THAT PREVIOUSLY DID NOT EXIST
IF THESE PRODUCTS OR SERVICES INTERACT WITH OTHER COMPONENTS, ALREADY
DEVELOPED OR IN DEVELOPMENT, THE PROACTIVE PROJECT MANAGER MUST BE
AWARE OF THESE INTERACTIONS
IF THE INTERACTING COMPONENTS PROCESS INFORMATION IN A SOPHISTICATED
FASHION ADAPTATION AND SELF-ORGANIZING BEHAVIORS CAN EMERGE THAT
HAVE AN UNPREDICTABLE IMPACT ON A PROJECT’S COST, SCHEDULE, OR
FUNCTIONALITY

18. WE HAVE COMPLEXITY
(SEE A LEADER’S FRAMEWORK FOR DECISION MAKING BY DAVID J. SNOWDEN
AND MARY E. BOONE IN THE 2007 HARVARD BUSINESS REVIEW)
PROJECT MANAGEMENT BY ITS DEFINITION RESULTS IN UNIQUE PRODUCTS OR
SERVICES-PRODUCTS OR SERVICES THAT PREVIOUSLY DID NOT EXIST
IF THESE PRODUCTS OR SERVICES INTERACT WITH OTHER COMPONENTS, ALREADY
DEVELOPED OR IN DEVELOPMENT, THE PROACTIVE PROJECT MANAGER MUST BE
AWARE OF THESE INTERACTIONS
IF THE INTERACTING COMPONENTS PROCESS INFORMATION IN A SOPHISTICATED
FASHION ADAPTATION AND SELF-ORGANIZING BEHAVIORS CAN EMERGE THAT
HAVE AN UNPREDICTABLE IMPACT ON A PROJECT’S COST, SCHEDULE, OR
FUNCTIONALITY
FOR EXAMPLE
THE JAVA PROGRAMMING LANGUAGE WAS ORIGINALLY TARGETED FOR
INTERACTIVE TV. THE DIGITAL CABLE INDUSTRY AT THAT TIME WAS NOT
ABLE TO APPLY THIS TECHNOLOGY, BUT THE NEWLY EMERGING INTERNET
WAS. THE NETSCAPE BROWSER ADOPTED JAVA AND THE REST IS HSTORY.

19. HOW DOES THIS INABILITY TO
PREDICT THE FUTURE AFFECT
YOUR CAREER PROSPECTS?

20. HOW DOES THIS INABILITY TO
PREDICT THE FUTURE AFFECT
YOUR CAREER PROSPECTS?
YOU MAY BE HELD RESPONSIBLE WHEN THE
FUTURE DOES NOT TURN OUT THE WAY YOUR
STAKEHOLDERS HAD HOPED
SO LET’S TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT
PLANNING AND EXECUTION

21. IN THE PLANNING PHASE WE JUGGLE THE BALLS OF
FUNCTIONALITY COST AND SCHEDULE UNTIL WE
HAVE AN EXECUTABLE BASELINE
-at least we think it is
BASELINE

22. THE BASELINE IS NO MORE THAN THE
CONCENSUS OPINION (AMOUNG
OURSELVES AND OUR STAKEHOLDERS) OF
WHAT THE FUTURE WILL BE

23. THE STAKEHOLDERS WATCH US AND OFFER
THEIR OPINION ON OUR ABILITY TO BUILD
THIS BASELINE
BASELINE
Nice job
Very thorough
Nice suit
Can I leave now

24. COST
SCHEDULE
SCOPE
THE FUTURE COMES SOONER THAN WE THINK AND IN
THE EXECUTION PHASE JUGGLING BALLS TURNS INTO
JUGGLING CHAINSAWS AND THE TERRA FIRMA OF THE
PLAN BECOMES THE REAL WORLD
-you’re a little more interesting to watch now

25. AND NOW THE STAKEHOLDERS
BECOME MORE ANIMATED
COST
SCHEDULE
SCOPE
Who decided that
That’s gonna cost us
What were you thinking
Where’s the leadership been on
this project

26. IF THE CHAINSAWS ARE TAKING SIGNIFICANT
CHUNKS OUT OF FUNCTIONALITY, SCHEDULE
PERFORMANCE, OR ROI A DECISION MUST BE
MADE ABOUT OUR PROJECT MANAGER

27. IF THE CHAINSAWS ARE TAKING SIGNIFICANT
CHUNKS OUT OF FUNCTIONALITY, SCHEDULE
PERFORMANCE, OR ROI A DECISION MUST BE
MADE ABOUT OUR PROJECT MANAGER
SEND HIM OR HER BACK FOR MORE PROJECT
MANAGEMENT TRAINING-THE PLAN MUST HAVE
BEEN INADEQUATE IN THE FIRST PLACE
OR
MAINTAIN CONFIDENCE IN OUR PROJECT
MANAGER FIGHTING IT OUT IN BUSINESS
ARENA

28. THIS CONFIDENCE WILL BE PLACED IN THE
PROJECT MANAGER IF HE OR SHE CONVEYS
THE FOLLOWING CORE BELIEF

29. THIS CONFIDENCE WILL BE PLACED IN THE
PROJECT MANAGER IF HE OR SHE CONVEYS
THE FOLLOWING CORE BELIEF
AS A PROJECT MANAGER I AM NOT
ACCOUNTABLE FOR FOLLOWING A PROCESS
AS A PROJECT MANAGER I AM ACCOUNTABLE
FOR BUILDING A UNIQUE PRODUCT OR SERVICE
THAT DELIVERS THE PROMISE OF THE BUSINESS
CASE

30. THIS CORE BELIEF (WHICH I VIEW AS THE
SOUL OF PROJECT MANAGEMENT)
DRIVES THE PROJECT MANAGER TO
MASTER THESE FIVE SKILLS

31. THIS CORE BELIEF (WHICH I VIEW AS THE
SOUL OF PROJECT MANAGEMENT)
DRIVES THE PROJECT MANAGER TO
MASTER THESE FIVE SKILLS
STRATEGIC THINKING
DECISION MAKING
INFLUENCING
NEGOTIATION
EMOTIONAL INTELLIGENCE

32. STRATEGIC THINKING
FIRST OF ALL IT’S NOT STRATEGIC PLANNING (PUT THAT
TEXTBOOK AWAY.)
WE’RE AT THE POINT WHERE THE PLAN ISN’T WORKING
AT THIS POINT A PROJECT LEADER (AS OPPOSED TO MANAGER)
MUST EMERGE WHO WILL START IDENTIFYING ISSUES WITH:

33. STRATEGIC THINKING
FIRST OF ALL IT’S NOT STRATEGIC PLANNING (PUT THAT
TEXTBOOK AWAY.)
WE’RE AT THE POINT WHERE THE PLAN ISN’T WORKING
AT THIS POINT A PROJECT LEADER (AS OPPOSED TO MANAGER)
MUST EMERGE WHO WILL START IDENTIFYING ISSUES WITH:
COST ……….NO!
SCHEDULE ……….NO!
RESOURCE ALLOCATION ……….NO!
FUNCTIONALITY ……….NO!

34. STRATEGIC THINKING
FIRST OF ALL IT’S NOT STRATEGIC PLANNING (PUT THAT
TEXTBOOK AWAY.)
WE’RE AT THE POINT WHERE THE PLAN ISN’T WORKING
AT THIS POINT A PROJECT LEADER (AS OPPOSED TO MANAGER)
MUST EMERGE WHO WILL START IDENTIFYING ISSUES WITH:
COST ……….NO!
SCHEDULE ……….NO!
RESOURCE ALLOCATION ……….NO!
FUNCTIONALITY ……….NO!
OPTIMIZING THE BUSINESS PROPOSITION
THAT INITIATED THIS PROJECT IN THE FIRST PLACE YES!!!

35. THESE FIRST ISSUES ARE OBVIOUSLY IMPORTANT BUT
THE SAVVY PROJECT LEADER WILL ADDRESS THEM ON
THE WAY TO OPTIMIZING THE PROJECT’S BUSINESS
PROPOSITION
ORGANIZATIONS VIEW PERFORMANCE THROUGH
THE PRISM OF THEIR BUSINESS PROPOSITION-
DON’T FORGET THIS FACT OF LIFE
A PROJECT’S BUSINESS PROPOSITIONS IS CONVEYED
THROUGH A CRISP GOAL STATEMENT-WHO, WHAT,
WHEN, WHERE, AND WHY

36. A GOOD GOAL STATEMENT IS LIKE A HORSESHOE
MAGNET PLACED UNDER A PIECE OF PAPER
SUPPORTING RANDOM IRON FILINGS

37. A GOOD GOAL STATEMENT IS LIKE A HORSESHOE
MAGNET PLACED UNDER A PIECE OF PAPER
SUPPORTING RANDOM IRON FILINGS

38. A GOOD GOAL STATEMENT IS LIKE A HORSESHOE
MAGNET PLACED UNDER A PIECE OF PAPER
SUPPORTING RANDOM IRON FILINGS

39. THE FILINGS BECOME ALIGNED WITH THE HORSESHOE MAGNET
MAKE SURE YOUR PROJECT’S
GOAL STATEMENT IS AS STRONG
AS THAT MAGNET IN ALIGNING
YOUR STAKEHOLDERS TO THE
PROJECT’S GOAL
BASE YOUR STRATEGIC
THINKING OFF OF IT
ESPECIALY THE “WHY”

40. DECISION MAKING HAS TWO COMPONENTS
MAKE THE RIGHT DECISION
WORTH 40%
MAKE THE DECISION RIGHT
MEANING?
CLEARLY AND UNAMBIGUOUSLY COMMUNICATED AND IMPLEMENTED
WORTH 60%

41. DECISION MAKING HAS TWO COMPONENTS
MAKE THE RIGHT DECISION
WORTH 40%
MAKE THE DECISION RIGHT
MEANING?
CLEARLY AND UNAMBIGUOUSLY COMMUNICATED AND IMPLEMENTED
WORTH 60%
HOW MANY TIMES HAVE YOU HEARD (OR SAID)
“THE RIGHT HAND DOESN’T KNOW WHAT THE LEFT IS DOING”

42. DECISION MAKING HAS TWO COMPONENTS
MAKE THE RIGHT DECISION
WORTH 40%
MAKE THE DECISION RIGHT
MEANING?
CLEARLY AND UNAMBIGUOUSLY COMMUNICATED AND IMPLEMENTED
WORTH 60%
HOW MANY TIMES HAVE YOU HEARD (OR SAID)
“THE RIGHT HAND DOESN’T KNOW WHAT THE LEFT IS DOING”
DO NOT LET THAT BE YOUR LEGACY

43. INFLUENCING SKILLS
ACCORDING TO THE EXPERTS THE MOST
IMPORTANT IS RECIPROCITY
GO OUT OF YOUR COMFORT ZONE TO HELP OTHERS
MEANING?

44. INFLUENCING SKILLS
ACCORDING TO THE EXPERTS THE MOST
IMPORTANT IS RECIPROCITY
GO OUT OF YOUR COMFORT ZONE TO HELP OTHERS
MEANING?
AND THEY WILL RETURN THE FAVOR
WHEN YOU NEED THEIR SUPPORT

45. NEGOTIATING SKILLS
DO YOUSELF A FAVOR AND READ “GETTING TO YES”
FROM THE GUYS AT HARVARD

46. NEGOTIATING SKILLS
DO YOUSELF A FAVOR AND READ “GETTING TO YES”
FROM THE GUYS AT HARVARD
Learn what BATNA is
the “Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement”
and get better results when you negotiate
Learn the difference between Interests and Positions
and start collaborating instead of compromising

47. EMOTIONAL INTELLIGENCE
THEY SAY IN BUSINESS IT’S NOT WHAT YOU
KNOW, BUT WHO YOU KNOW
THEY’RE RIGHT

48. EMOTIONAL INTELLIGENCE
THEY SAY IN BUSINESS IT’S NOT WHAT YOU
KNOW, BUT WHO YOU KNOW
THEY’RE RIGHT
SO START WITH YOURSELF
IT’S THE FOUNDATION OF EMOTIONAL
INTELLIGENCE

49. LET’S TAILOR EMOTIONAL INTELLIGENCE TO THE WORLD
OF PROJECT MANAGEMENT
YOU
AWARENESS
DO YOU THRIVE IN
THE ARENA OF
PROJECT
EXECUTION

50. LET’S TAILOR EMOTIONAL INTELLIGENCE TO THE WORLD
OF PROJECT MANAGEMENT
YOU
AWARENESS
DO YOU THRIVE IN
THE ARENA OF
PROJECT
EXECUTION
CAN YOU
CONTROL AND
CONVEY YOUR
EMOTIONS TO
EXPLOIT THE
SITUATION AT
HAND
CONTROL

51. LET’S TAILOR EMOTIONAL INTELLIGENCE TO THE WORLD
OF PROJECT MANAGEMENT
YOU
AWARENESS
DO YOU THRIVE IN
THE ARENA OF
PROJECT
EXECUTION
CAN YOU
CONTROL AND
CONVEY YOUR
EMOTIONS TO
EXPLOIT THE
SITUATION AT
HAND
CONTROL
CAN YOU READ
STAKEHOLDERS TO
ANTICIPATE THEIR LOSS
OF CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT PLAN
OTHERS

52. LET’S TAILOR EMOTIONAL INTELLIGENCE TO THE WORLD
OF PROJECT MANAGEMENT
YOU
AWARENESS
DO YOU THRIVE IN
THE ARENA OF
PROJECT
EXECUTION
CAN YOU
CONTROL AND
CONVEY YOUR
EMOTIONS TO
EXPLOIT THE
SITUATION AT
HAND
CONTROL
CAN YOU READ
STAKEHOLDERS TO
ANTICIPATE THEIR LOSS
OF CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT PLAN
CAN YOU BRING
STAKEHOLDERS TO
THE CONCENSUS
THAT YOUR WAY
FORWARD IS THE
BEST
OTHERS

53. SO IN SUMMARY IF YOU WANT TO PROTECT YOU
CAREER AS A PROJECT MANAGER
PAY ATTENTION TO THE STANDARD
PLANNING ARTIFACTS AND MASTER THEIR
APPLICATION
BUT PAY MORE ATTENTION TO (AND GET BETTER AT)

54. SO IN SUMMARY IF YOU WANT TO PROTECT YOU
CAREER AS A PROJECT MANAGER
PAY ATTENTION TO THE STANDARD
PLANNING ARTIFACTS AND MASTER THEIR
APPLICATION
BUT PAY MORE ATTENTION TO (AND GET BETTER AT)
STRATEGIC THINKING
DECISION MAKING
INFLUENCING
NEGOTIATION
EMOTIONAL INTELLIGENCE

55. MY CURRENT AVOCATION IS TEACHING PROJECT MANAGEMENT
AND FACILITATING DISCUSSIONS ABOUT ITS APPLICATION. I’D BE
INTERESTED IN YOUR IDEAS FOR PROTECTING AND ADVANCING
PROJECT MANAGEMENT CAREERS. PLEASE CONTACT ME ON
LINKEDIN OR AT THE EMAIL BELOW
Dr John Hogan
jhogan1278@gmail.com

56. BY THE WAY, THAT BRIDGE OVER MY SHOULDER

57. BY THE WAY, THAT BRIDGE OVER MY SHOULDER
PLANNED BY JOHN ROEBLING AND HIS SON
WASHINGTON ROEBLING TO TAKE 5 YEARS
TO DESIGN AND BUILD

58. BY THE WAY, THAT BRIDGE OVER MY SHOULDER
PLANNED BY JOHN ROEBLING AND HIS SON
WASHINGTON ROEBLING TO TAKE 5 YEARS
TO DESIGN AND BUILD
JOHN DIED WHILE SURVEYING THE SITE
WASHINGTON WAS INCAPACITATED BY DECOMPRESSION
SICKNESS JUST AS CONSTRUCTION STARTED

59. BY THE WAY, THAT BRIDGE OVER MY SHOULDER
PLANNED BY JOHN ROEBLING AND HIS SON
WASHINGTON ROEBLING TO TAKE 5 YEARS
TO DESIGN AND BUILD
JOHN DIED WHILE SURVEYING THE SITE
WASHINGTON WAS INCAPACITATED BY DECOMPRESSION
SICKNESS JUST AS CONSTRUCTION STARTED
THE PROJECT WAS EXECUTED OVER THE NEXT 14
YEARS BY EMILY WARREN ROEBLING- THE WIFE OF
WASHINGTON

60. EMILY WARREN ROEBLING IS
MY MODEL FOR LASTING
PROJECT EXECUTION