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Within the past two decades, the idea of cities as fractal structures resulting from social and economic processes has led to a transition in thinking of cities as machines to cities as organisms. Independently, the concept of ‘sustainable cities’ had emerged earlier, with many successful implementations already underway. A sustainable city is one able to feed and power itself using land and energy efficiently with the least environmental pollution and impact on climate change, minimizing wastes and recycling and reconverting wastes into resources.
In my own work, coherent fractal space-time structures are the key to a circular thermodynamics of organisms and sustainable systems that achieves the state of minimum entropy production and dissipation that Ilya Prigogine had proposed as a conjecture. I shall show how the principles of circular thermodynamics can be applied to sustainable cities.
Directors at Public Interest Registry, Lauren Price & Ulrich Retzlaff give us a general overview of the changing domain name industry and how you can benefit.
Sust cities as organisms, a new thermodynamics perspectiveMae-Wan Ho
Inaugural lecture for Prigogine Medal 2014 award, Siena, Italy, 23 September 2014
Abstract
Well over 50 % of us now live in cities while world population growth and urbanization continue unabated. There is an urgent need for policies that can address both the challenges and opportunities for sustainable development in urban settings.
Within the past two decades, the idea of cities as fractal structures resulting from social and economic processes has led to a transition in thinking of cities as machines to cities as organisms. Independently, the concept of ‘sustainable cities’ had emerged earlier, with many successful implementations already underway. A sustainable city is one able to feed and power itself using land and energy efficiently with the least environmental pollution and impact on climate change, minimizing wastes and recycling and reconverting wastes into resources.
In my own work, coherent fractal space-time structures are the key to a circular thermodynamics of organisms and sustainable systems that achieves the state of minimum entropy production and dissipation that Ilya Prigogine had proposed as a conjecture. I shall show how the principles of circular thermodynamics can be applied to sustainable cities.
Directors at Public Interest Registry, Lauren Price & Ulrich Retzlaff give us a general overview of the changing domain name industry and how you can benefit.
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2. CONTENTS
SIGNIFICANCE OF A NAME 1
BACKGROUND INFORMATION 2
Why Register A Domain Name 2
How Large Is The Domain Name Market ? 2
Enter the Mobile Economy 2
What Factors Contribute To Such A High Incidence Of Domain Name Expiry / Lapse ? 3
What makes a good Domain Name ? 3
Valua%on Acronyms & Associated Models 4
So Much Informa%on So Li;le Time 5
Existence of A Free Market 5
Companies Opera%ng In The Space 5
TRADITIONAL APPROACHES & CHALLENGES TO DOMAIN NAME VALUATION 6
A Review of Accepted Approaches 6
Comparable Analysis 6
Discounted Cashflows 6
Value of Revenue 7
Links & Traffic Numbers 7
Are These Tradi%onal Views Accurate ? 8
Tribalism at Work 8
Links 8
Traffic Numbers 8
Exper%se & Domain Name Valua%on 8
Conclusions on Tradi%onal Valua%on Approaches 9
ALTERNATE APPROACHES TO DOMAIN NAME VALUATION 10
Are These Challenges In Valua%on Unique To Domain Names ? 10
Collec%ble 10
Intellectual Capital / Property 11
SOMETIMES SIMPLE IS SENSIBLE 11
Conclusion 11
4. 2 | Probing the Domain Name Valua3on Universe
LCC
Background Informa%on
Domains are a seriously fascina3ng piece of intellectual
property. And more importantly, given the low registra3on
costs involved, are an asset class that can be traded by virtually
everybody.
There is also the ‘gold rush’ aspect that the domain name
industry has generated. Stories of trades for high sums are of
course plen3ful. To the uneducated it appears in many ways
to be easy money. Register a name and it has the poten3al of
being worth many mul3ples of that in a short period of 3me.
Compelling.
Specula3on in the marketplace is rife. Camping on well chosen
words and phrases has become so prolific that it has spawned
the en3re ‘parking’ industry. Domain name ‘hoax’ emails are
on the rise11
. Domain name conferences12
are held regularly
around the globe at which an element of the agenda is a ‘Live
Auc3on’ of domain names. Numerous online domain name
exchanges have sprung up.
All this means that the humble domain name, whilst s3ll in
its infancy13
, is rapidly emerging as a mainstream asset class
which has deep commercial value and aeachment.
Why Register & Maintain A Domain Name
To con3nue to register a domain name one has to have some
form of commitment. That commitment may originate from a
number of areas including :
A simple commercial purpose. • The domain name is
associated with the registrant’s business and therefore is
the cyberspace ‘brand’ for the parent company. Be it Coca
Cola Corpora2on to the neighbourhood plumber, based
on this approach the commitment for ongoing registra3on
is high and commercially driven.
A domain related commercial purpose. • The domain
name is a commercial purpose in and of itself, and as such
its ongoing registra3on drives a business. In short the
business is being built around the domain, which in turn is
evolved from a simple word into a brand14
.
Specula%on.• Just as in any market certain specula3on
strategies are beeer posi3oned for success than others.
Speculators are becoming increasingly focussed on
domain names that will hopefully lead to an opportunity
of commercially based exit. That is, own something today
that a company will want to acquire tomorrow, as it will
deliver that company a poten3al strategic advantage in its
posi3oning on the Internet. This is a more sophis3cated
approach than the previous blatant land grabs of
realis3cally any form of .com URL15
.
Fun. • Many like domaining to a hobby. Nothing more.
Nothing less. Such domain fans are not commercially
driven, and given the low 3cket value of their hobby can
afford to indulge it on an ongoing basis. The end use may
be to run a personal or hobby oriented web page – or
alterna3vely there may be no end use whatsoever. The
buzz of ownership is all that maeers.
How Large Is The Domain Name Market?
It is of course no great surprise that the domain name market
has become large and lucra3ve. Website www.domaintools.
com notes that just in .com extension there are currently
80,255,248 currently registered URLs with a whopping
300,368,117 which are deleted (no longer ac2ve). Quite extra
ordinary when one considers that the asset class came into
being in 1994.
With the release of numerous addi3onal extensions by
ICANN, coupled with the increasing global penetra3on of
Internet connec3vity (in par2cular in large countries such as
India, China, Russia and Brazil) the writer an3cipates that
the domain name market is set to con3nue to grow for the
foreseeable future, with this being driven by both specula3on
and commercialisa3on.
As more individuals and businesses commence to drive
commerce through the Internet, the requirement of well
framed URLs will become just that more important – in
par3cular across developing countries and geographies16
.
Enter the Mobile Economy
Addi3onally, and importantly, access to the underlying
websites that the URL gate keeps is rapidly shiding beyond the
fixed line access to the Internet.
The trend will undoubtedly shid, in the writer’s opinion, to
the convenience of the mobile device – par3cularly amongst
younger users who gravitate to mobile phones and other
Internet ready mobile hardware17
. The increased availability
of more budget oriented data plans across the mobile
device in emerging economies will further add to the mobile
experience, including the consump3on of digital media,
gaming and social interac3on.
Consider a na3on such as India. The Telecom Regulatory
Authority of India released on 20th August 2009 Telecom
Subscrip3on Data for July 2009. Over 14 million new wireless
subscribers were added in a month, with total wireless
subscrip3ons in India exceeding 441 million18
.
With an ever increasing array of content available on the
11
One recent one received by the writer related to an application in China of registering a series of
ccTLDs relating to one of the writer’s URLs. The email was a call to action to immediately dialogue
with the Chinese authorities to prevent an unauthorized registration and potential misuse. Of course
the follow up email was also an invitation to register those domains for the writer. The veil of being a
regulatory intermediary seeking to protect interests, to that of a commercial service provider was almost
instantaneous. Fortunately credit card details were not handed over. One of the increasing approaches
being used to attempt to generate revenue from this industry in an unscrupulous fashion
12
For example T.R.A.F.F.I.C, Domainer Mardi Gras and DOMAINfest Global are all popular events
13
The URL was created in 1994 by Tim Berners Lee : http://www.ietf.org/rfc/rfc1738.txt
14
www.Internetrealestate.com is the core site of Internet Real Estate group, arguably one of the most savvy of
the developers of simple domain names. The bi-line on the home page of this company’s website says it all :
“Developing Internet Brands”
15
And there are tools to help with name generation as well. Sites such as www.MakeWords.com position
themselves to assist users ‘find unique and memorable name ideas…..’. ‘With just a few clicks users can easily
generate hundreds of random phonetic names…….’. Also the reader can review similar sites such as www.
nameboy.com & www.123finder.com
16
Geographic URLs have been introduced for some years. For example, .asia
17
Examples include the Apple I-Tough which is Wi Fi ready
18
Refer to www.trai.gov.in for additional data on the rapid expansion of the Indian market
5. Probing the Domain Name Valua3on Universe | 3
LCC
Internet, the importance of simply naviga3ng to topics that
the user wants to view will become increasingly important.
The domain name can be a highly potent tool to facilitate
simple naviga3on – and with the rapidly increasing use of
mobile applica3ons simple domain names will be just that
more aerac3ve.
What Factors Contribute To Such A High Incidence Of
Domain Name Expiry / Lapse ?
Why is the incidence of expiry / lapse almost 4 3mes that
of what is represented as being current registra3ons ? The
writer believes that there are many factors at work, with the
following offered as some of the more logical observa3ons &
explana3ons :
There are lots of• ‘good ideas at the 2me’ given the high
incidence of registra3on followed by dele3on / expiry.
Given the high incidence of squasng / specula3on there
is a natural tendency to immediately try and capture the
high ground in cyberspace by registering a domain name.
The barrier to registering a domain name is all but non •
existent19
. There are numerous service providers that
allow the ‘good idea’ to be converted into a piece of
intellectual property by nothing more than a few key
strokes and a credit card. All one needs is Internet access
and it is game on.
The cost of registra3on is very low – and gradually •
falling20
, in par3cular at the gTLD level21
, as with any
commodi3sed industry. The sheer number of domains
that have been registered and lapsed is evidence of the
‘disposable capital’ involved in the registra3on process.
That is ini3al capital22
that the end user is willing to
forego or ‘dispose of’ down the track because the loss
associated with it is not financially threatening.
A domain name is an incredibly fragile piece of •
intellectual property whose value is effec3vely binary. It
is something or nothing. The domain name needs to be
registered each year to con3nue to have the poten3al
for ‘value’. A failure to register by one user means that
the value can quickly flow into the hands of another23
if
the registra3on window is missed on renewal24
. In the
context of lapses / expiry this is relevant as if there was
a commercial driver to aeachment to the domain name
then it would be illogical to allow it to lapse.
The expiring domain names also bear clear testament to
what has oden been termed the ‘Internet gold rush’. An
exuberance by many speculators that grabbing a piece of
Internet land will pay off handsomely in the near term.
Unfortunately this is simply not the case. The number of
‘deleted’ names provides clear evidence of the fact that many
people have simply made a bet that has not paid off, and they
have no interest in doubling up (con2nuing to register).
Secondary trading is s3ll highly selec3ve – with buyers
now able to access large volumes of informa3on on lapsing
domain names conveniently. And in the writer’s opinion the
convenience of the industry is a large magnet to aeract and
retain members of this community. Addi3onally, the tools
being marketed by the wider industry players are on the
increase, and the level of sophis3ca3on of those tools is also
on the increase25
.
It does appear that a very basic ques3on con3nues to be
ignored by many speculators. And that is – who will these
domain names / the proper/es associated with them
eventually be sold onto ?
It is argued by the writer that some basic, and oden very
straighYorward, analysis is missing in the speculator’s
approach to the domain name investment. The game of ‘pass
the parcel’ cannot go on forever. Eventually the fundamental
user needs to be found26
.
And the fundamental commercially driven user wants quality.
What makes a good Domain Name ?
There are a number of tradi3onal reasons given for the
commercial aerac3veness of a domain name. These include:
Marke%ng Commitment and Trac%on
The Internet has of course spawned many success
stories with domain names / brands that have nothing
to do with simple valua3on theory, and in fact fly in the
face of it.
Ebay is the oden quoted example. A deriva3ve of
the term ‘bay’ tradi3onal valua3on analysis would of
course ques3on its worth.
Under the writer’s opinion, however, it is a classic case
of the intersect of capital, a brilliant management team
and significant dollars being available and well directed
to build a brand.
The point is that the norm can be bent, but only with
stand out execu3on on a business plan will the brand
drive the domain name value into the elite pricing /
value range.
19
Save for certain countries that require some form of local presence in order to effect registration of indigenous URLs
20
A simple Google search of ‘domain names’ will display a number of service providers competing for registration business on price
21
Although the writer is still amused at the attempted practice of some players to still try and charge high prices for registration – in particular at the gTLD level
22
The registration fee and / or the renewal fee
23
Sites such as www.igoldrush.com detail lists of expired domain names. The number of services providing this style of information is, from the writer’s observation, on the rise
24
Ensure that any registrar that you hold domain names with has an auto renewal service, and that you have selected for this service to be active
25
The writer is a heavy user of www.godaddy.com, and is continually amazed at the development of this business model over the last 2 years. It is an exceptional service, highly convenient and a price leader
26
The end user may be a portfolio player that seeks to monetise networks of URLs
6. 4 | Probing the Domain Name Valua3on Universe
LCC
Length.1. The tradi3onal rule of thumb has been the
shorter the beeer. Ra3onale on this includes the
‘pres3ge’ associated with having a pure name, the ability
of search engines to pick up on the Domain, the ease of
communica3on of the domain and the confidence that
the Internet consumer has in now understanding the
value of the pure domain name.
Extension. 2. The .com extension has tradi3onally been the
dominant URL in terms of highest value. It is generic in
presenta3on and reflects the true borderless nature of
the Internet. One argument has been that given the .com
extension is the most mature in terms of usage, a high
page ranking along with a pure .com is meant to reflect
pres3ge27
. The writer argues that this tradi3onal view is
gradually giving way to localisa3on – with that localisa3on
best effected via a similarly high quality ccTLD.
Links.3. The tradi3onal view has been that the more page
links the beeer. This is meant to reflect in traffic numbers.
Services such as www.alexa.com specifically detail the
page links to sites. Links can be built, however, and
the savvy SEO professional has liele trouble in crea3ng
numerous linking sites quickly.
Page Rank. 4. Where the URL displays on the natural
search results of key search engines is regarded as highly
valuable. This in part due to the behavioural paeerns of
the consumer in displaying a preference to ‘click’ in the
visible search displays28
.
Registra%on Age. 5. The number of years that the domain
name has been in existence arguably has an effect on its
value. Simply because the number of links that are able to
be connected to the URL can rise.
Traffic. 6. The higher the traffic that flows through the
Domain the beeer. Par3cularly in the Google economy
of today where there should be a loose correla3on
between traffic numbers and the ability to mone3se via
products such as Google AdSense. There is then the
concept of traffic density which relates to the geographic
concentra3on of traffic flowing through a URL / site.
Simplicity. 7. Common words are oden argued as being of
higher value than complicated words. Par3cularly where
the simplicity is interlinked with a commercial cause. This
is very hard to argue against when the top priced domains
of all 3me are reviewed.
Purity. 8. Things such as inser3ng a prefix, a slight mis‐
spelling or a suffix do not in general deliver a compelling
valua3on argument. The same goes for a hyphen being
inserted29
. These URLs can s3ll be valuable, but it will
likely be much lower than the simple pure version.
Commercial Opportunity. 9. Be it short or long the ability of
the domain name to simply fit into the Google economy
is an important factor. Is it easily searched ? How many
natural searches result in the URL being displayed ? Some
sectors are more popular than others. Is there poten3al
for a legal challenge to be mounted against the name
itself ?30
Many of these factors are of course simple common sense
once the fabric of the Internet is understood. A core thesis is
therefore that simple and popular translates into value.
Whilst this is arguably correct, there are many examples of
the intrinsic value in the name itself being the driver to value.
The writer argues that for the vast majority of secondary
trades taking place, traffic, page rank, etc. are, however, of
secondary importance.
Valua%on Acronyms & Associated Models
Acronyms are a part and parcel of the Internet.
The website Caslon Analy3cs31
notes that there are a number
of valua3on ‘acronyms’ that are being used to approach
the task of valua3on. The two men3oned here are the Six S
Model and the MULE Model.
The Six S Model approaches the task by factoring in the
following elements :
Size• ‐ is the URL short enough to remember ?
Sense• ‐ Does it iden3fy the business / product ?
Sound• ‐ Does it ‘sound good’ ?
Spelling• ‐ Is it spelt correctly ?
Search• ‐ Does it display in searches or has the
poten3al to ?
Scope• ‐ Does it relate to an industry that has ‘scope’ for
commercial success ?
All preey straighYorward and reasonable.
The MULE approach advocates the following approach :
M• ‐ market type32
U• ‐ usefulness33
L• ‐ length34
E • ‐ ease35
What is the similarity of these approaches ? It should be
obvious. Both assessments are qualita2ve as opposed to
quan2ta2vely driven. Beauty, therefore, can be in many ways
in the eye of the beholder with these simple approaches
reflec3ng the immaturity of the topic of valua3on in what is a
rapidly emerging asset class.
In defence of these commonsense approaches, however,
reference should again be made to the heavy branding /
27
Given the expertise of SEO service providers the writer questions the relevance of natural search reflecting in position today. 10 years ago definitely. Today the ability to manipulate search engine outputs is real
28
SEO optimization can again enhance the page rank of any URL
29
Some of these concepts being outlined in various articles detailed on www.igoldrush.com. A ‘hyphen’ trade of high value was recently reported on DNJournal.com. Hotel-Reservation.com reportedly trading for circa
USD $209,916 in September 2009
30
The law has fortunately developed to protect the holder of an associated physical brand where ‘squatting’ occurs online. Generic can lead to value, but sitting on another company’s name (without commercial use), for
example, is most probably worthless
31
www.caslon.com.au
32
“professional services versus youth/design demographics that favour funky names such as fatbrain or bluesskyfrog versus consumers intent on finding vendors of cars, homes, phones, perfumes and health products”
33
“Will people buy - Catchy, Clever, Concise”
34
Letters/Words/Numbers
35
How it sounds/Does it flow
7. Probing the Domain Name Valua3on Universe | 5
LCC
intellectual capital basis of the domain name.
The above acronyms are uncomplicated but powerful. They
are easily understood by the novice and seasoned trader alike.
And are a useful backdrop to explaining how the assessment
of value can take place in a fragmented and evolving
marketplace.
So Much Informa%on So Li;le Time
One of the beau3es of the Internet is also one of its curses.
There is just so much informa3on out there that oden it
is difficult to quickly put one’s hand on the most useful /
valuable. The spawning of all manner of business models
around the domain name industry is case in point.
On all sides of this sector of the Internet ecosystem, there
are numerous business models now in opera3on providing
‘picks and shovels’ to the avid Domainer. Some of the more
noteworthy being :
Domain Name Brokers.•
Domain Name Expiry Registers.•
Domain Name Valuers.•
Domain Name Parking Agents.•
Registrars.•
Regulators.•
Domain Name Lis3ng Sites.•
Domain Name Publica3ons• (journals / magazines).
Domain Name Financing Organisa3ons.•
Conference Organisers focussing on the industry.•
And of course there are the blogs, chat rooms and other social
media forums in which Domainers gather to debate, praise
and ridicule the industry (some2mes users seemingly doing all
three in the one communica2on).
Suffice to say it is clearly a situa3on where one scratches
the surface and it is evident that a very deep and complex
ecosystem is being created. Whether this is a sustainable
business environment will be established by 3me, but today
there are many players posi3oning themselves based on the
expecta3on that this economy will not only remain stable, but
will expand materially from its present size.
It is in this was analogous to the age old gold rush. Whilst
many players are seeking to make their fortune in registering
that all desirable domain name, there is an industry sprou3ng
up servicing that fortune hunter. The writer’s observa3on is
that many of these service providers are becoming richer than
the prospectors themselves. Another similarity to the gold
rush phenomena.
It should also be recognised that the service providers are
incen3vised to keep the game going. Ensuring ongoing
publicity for high 3cket sales is of paramount importance, and
a powerful tool in keeping the speculator mo3vated. There is
an ingrained conflict of interest in publicising the wealth being
generated from domain name sales. It is self serving to those
selling ‘picks and shovels’– although this is a common element
of many industries and in no way unique to domaining.
Existence of A Free Market
In addi3on to ‘direct naviga3on’36
companies there are an
ever increasing number of URL exchanges that allow for the
simple facilita3on of trades of URLs. It is easy to check out
the latest offerings, and if you are brave enough to sign up for
an email no3fica3on service your inbox will also be filed with
announcements of impending and live auc3ons.
For the interested reader, a number of the leading brokers /
exchanges are as follows37
:
www.namedrive.com•
www.sedo.com •
www.RickLatona.com •
www.NameJet.com •
www.SnapNames.com •
www.Moniker.com •
www.AdernicDLS.com •
The upshot of all this is that the ability to buy, or sell, a
domain name could not be more straighYorward. There is
a healthy and open marketplace through which this form of
commerce can transact – similar to any other exchange driven
environment / asset class (eg. fx or futures).
On reviewing the sheer number of names that these sites
market, the reader will appreciate the repeated themes of this
paper:
A flight to quality is commencing.1.
The key is finding the end user. 2.
Companies Opera%ng In The Space
There are many companies that have commenced the process
of acquiring porYolios of domain names and then developing
those proper3es. Some more successful than others. Some
private. Some public. Some with ‘bricks & mortar’ legs to
their business. Some purely online (blending e‐commerce and
marke2ng services). Some have been doing it for many years.
Others are new entrants.
Ones that the reader may care to review38
to brief themselves
on alterna3ves of business model include :
36
Direct navigation is the practice of by passing the use of a search engine to find a web site via the practice of typing in the site specific URL
37
These sites are provided for information purposes only, and convenience for readers to quickly navigate to exchanges where the trading value of domain names can be explored
38
These companies are provided for information purposes only, and convenience for the reader to quickly review a variety of business models based on, or associated with, domain names