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Segmentation and Targeting
 STP (Segmentation,
Targeting, and
Positioning)
 Needs-based
segmentation
 Cluster Analysis
 Discriminant Analysis
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 2
© DecisionPro 2007
Market Segmentation
 Market segmentation is the subdividing of a
market into distinct subsets of customers.
Segments
 Members are different between segments but
similar within.
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 3
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STP is a Core Business Process
 To identify and select groups of potential customers...
 Organizations, Buying Centers, Individuals
 Whose needs within-groups are similar and whose needs between-groups
are different (S)
 Who can be reached profitably (T)
 With a focused marketing program (P)
STP - (Segmentation, Targeting, Positioning) is a
Decision Process
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 4
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Segmentation Marketing Implies a
“Market”
A market consists of all the potential
customers sharing a particular need
or want who might be willing and able
to engage in exchange to satisfy that
need or want.
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 5
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Electric Typewriter Market
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985
Shipments
A (Us) 403,027 495,192 548,905 550,351 541,388 515,000
B 369,916 388,520 349,396 323,005 342,197 297,000
Other 367,057 324,010 343,885 370,374 202,495 129,070
Total 1,140,000 1,207,722 1,242,186 1,243,730 1,086,080 941,070
Market Shares (%)
A (Us) 35.4 41.0 44.2 44.2 49.8 54.7
B 32.4 32.2 28.1 26.0 31.5 31.6
Other 32.2 26.8 27.7 29.8 18.6 13.7
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 6
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1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985
Shipments
A (Us) 403,027 495,192 548,905 550,351 541,388 515,000
B 369,916 388,520 349,396 323,005 342,197 297,000
Other Electric 367,057 324,010 343,885 370,374 202,495 129,070
Electronic Word
Processors
60,040 112,220 209,800 392,352 733,699 1,372,016
Total 1,200,040 1,319,942 1,451,986 1,636,082 1,819,778 2,313,086
Market Shares (%)
A (Us) 33.6 37.5 37.8 33.6 29.8 22.3
B 30.8 29.4 24.1 19.7 18.8 12.8
Other Electric 30.6 24.5 23.7 22.6 11.1 5.6
Electronic Word
Processors
5.0 8.5 14.4 24.0 40.3 59.3
Word Processor Market
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 7
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Segmentation
Identify segments
Targeting
Select segments
Positioning
Create competitive
advantage
Marketing resources are focused to better meet customers
needs and deliver more value to them
Customers develop preference for brands that better meet
their needs and deliver more value
Customers become brand/supplier loyal, repeat purchase,
communicate favorable experiences
Brand/supplier loyalty leads to increased market share and
creates a barrier to competition
Fewer marketing resources needed over time to maintain
share due to brand or supplier loyalty
Profitability (value to the firm) increases
How STP Creates Value
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 8
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The Many Uses of Segmentation
Short term segmentation applications:
 Salesforce allocation/call planning
 Channel assignment
 Communication program
 Pricing
 Today’s competitors and my current relative
advantage to the customer
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The Many Uses of Segmentation
Longer term:
 Emerging needs
 New and evolving market segments to serve
 Planning for segment development/growth
 Not in kind competition/threats (satisfying
customer needs in different ways)
 Lead user identification and management
 Market driving (vs. customer focused)
A Four-Phase Process for Conducting a
Successful Segmentation Project
Internal Assessment
& Planning
• Objective(s) of
segmentation
• Resources
• Constraints
Database
Review
• Primary data
already available
• Secondary data
• …
Prototype
Implementation
Exercises
• What ifs?
• Relevant groups
involved?
• …..
Qualitative
Research
• Interview
Materials
Development


• Qualitative Data
Collection


• “Deep needs”
Identification


• Decision-
Making Process
Assessment


Quantitative
Survey
• Sample Design



• Questionnaire
Development



• Data Collection



Segmentation
Analysis
• Cluster Analysis
• Portfolio Analysis
• Positioning Analysis
Classification Tool
Development
• Discriminant
function
• Binary (CART)
tree
• …
Implementation
Through
Database Tools
• Call Center
• Web
• Sales call
patterns
• Promotion
• ….
Phase I
Planning and Design
Phase II
Qualitative Assessment
Phase III
Quantitative Measurement
Phase IV
Analysis and Implementation
Basic Idea: Do segmentation analysis on a small (random) sample of
customers, but leverage the insights across the entire customer base.
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 11
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Needs-Based Segmentation
Distinguish Between Bases and Descriptors
 Bases—characteristics that tell us why segments
differ (e.g., needs, preferences, decision
processes).
 Descriptors—characteristics that help us find and
reach segments.
(Business markets) (Consumer markets)
Industry Age/Income
Size Education
Location Profession
Organizational Life styles
structure Media habits
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 12
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Relevant Segmentation Descriptor
Variable A: Climatic Region
1. Snow Belt
2. Moderate Belt
3. Sun Belt
Fraction of
Customers
Likelihood of Purchasing Solar Water Heater
(a)
0 100%
Segment 1
Segment 2
Segment 3
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 13
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Likelihood of Purchasing Solar Water Heater
(b)
Irrelevant Segmentation Descriptor
Fraction of
Customers
0 100%
Variable B: Education
1. Low Education
2. Moderate Education
3. High Education
Segment 1
Segment 2
Segment 3
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Variables to Segment
and Describe Markets
Consumer Markets B2B Markets
Segmentation Needs, wants, benefits, Needs, wants, benefits, solutions to
Bases solutions to problems, problems, usage situation, usage rate,
usage situation, usage rate. size*, industry*.
Descriptors Age, income, marital status, Industry, size, location, current
Demographics family type & size, supplier(s), technology utilization,
gender, social class, etc. etc.
Psychographics Lifestyle, values, & Personality characteristics of
personality characteristics. decision makers.
Behavior Use occasions, usage level, Use occasions, usage level,
complementary & complementary & substitute
substitute products used, products used, brand loyalty, order
brand loyalty, etc. size, applications, etc.
Decision Making Individual or group Formalization of purchasing
(family) choice, low or high procedures, size & characteristics
involvement purchase, of decision making group, use of
attitudes and knowledge outside consultants, purchasing
about product class, price criteria, (de)centralizing buying,
sensitivity, etc. price sensitivity, switching costs, etc.
Media Patterns Level of use, types of Level of use, types of media used,
media used, times of use, time of use, patronage at trade shows,
etc. receptivity of sales people, etc.
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STP as Business Strategy
Segmentation
 Identify segmentation bases and segment the market.
 Develop profiles of resulting segments.
Targeting
 Evaluate attractiveness of each segment.
 Select target segments.
Positioning
 Identify possible positioning concepts for each target segment.
 Select, develop, and communicate the chosen concept.
… to create and claim value
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A Note on Positioning
Positioning involves designing an offering so that
the target segment members perceive it in a distinct
and valued way relative to competitors.
Three ways to position an offering:
1. Unique (“Only product/service with XXX”)
2. Difference (“More than twice the [feature] vs.
[competitor]”)
3. Similarities (“Same functionality as [competitor];
lower price”)
What are you telling your targeted segments?
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 17
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..
.
D
.
.
..
.
.
Segmentation (for Carpet Fibers)
A,B,C,D:
Location of
segment centers.
Typical members:
A: schools
B: light commercial
C: indoor/outdoor
carpeting
D: health clubs
Distance between
segments C and D
.
..
. .
.
Strength
(Importance)
Water Resistance
(Importance)
.....
.
..
A
.....
.
..
. .
.
.
.....
.
..
. .
.
.
...
..
.. C
B
Perceptions/Ratings for one respondent:
Customer Values
.
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 18
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.....
.
..
. .
.
.
.....
.
..
.
.
. .
Water Resistance
(Importance)
Targeting
Segment(s) to serve
.....
.
..
.
.
.....
.
..
. .
.
.
Strength
(Importance)
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 19
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Example Criteria for Determining
Target Segments to Serve
Criterion Examples of Considerations
I. Size and Growth
1. Size • Market potential, current market penetration
2. Growth • Past growth forecasts of technology change
II. Structural Characteristics
3. Competition • Barriers to entry, barriers to exit, position of
competitors, ability to retaliate
4. Segment saturation • Gaps in the market
5. Protectability • Patentability of products, barriers to entry
6. Environmental risk • Economic, political, and technological change
III. Product-Market Fit
7. Fit • Coherence with company’s strengths and image
8. Relationships with • Synergy, cost interactions, image transfers,
segments cannibalization
9. Profitability • Entry costs, margin levels, return on investment
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 20
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Variable Typical Breakdown
Age Under 6, 6-11, 12-19, 20-34, 35-49, 50-64, 65+
Gender Male, female
Family size 1-2, 3-4, 5+
Family life Young, single; young, married, no children; young, married, youngest child
under six;
cycle young, married, oldest child over six; older, married, with children;
older, married, no children under 18; older, single; other
Income Under $10,000; $10,001-$15,000; $15,001-$20,000; $20,001-$30,000;
$30,001-$50,000; $50,001-$100,000; over $100,000
Demographic Segmentation
Examples
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 21
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Variable Typical Breakdown
Occupation Professional and technical; managers, officials, and proprietors; clerical,
sales;
craftspeople; farmers; laborers; retired; students; housewives; unemployed
Education Grade school or less; some high school; high school; some college;
college graduate; graduate degree
Religion Catholic, Protestant, Jewish, Muslim, Hindu, other
Race White, black, Asian, Hispanic
Nationality American, British, French, German, Italian, Japanese
Demographic Segmentation
Examples
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Variable Typical Breakdown
Lifestyle Activities, interests, opinions
Personality Compulsive, gregarious, authoritarian,
ambitious
Values Sense of belonging, excitement,
warm relationships with others,
self-fulfillment, security,
being well respected,
fun and enjoyment of life,
self-respect, sense of accomplishment
Psychographic Segmentation
Examples
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Variable Typical Breakdown
Usage situation Regular occasion, special occasion
Benefits Quality, service, economy, speed
User status Nonuser, ex-user, potential user,
first-time user, regular user
Usage rate Light user, medium user, heavy user
Loyalty status None, medium, strong, absolute
Readiness stage Unaware, aware, informed, interested,
desirous, intending to buy
Attitude toward Enthusiastic, positive, indifferent,
product negative, hostile
Behavioral Segmentation
Examples
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 24
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Respondent
Selection/Aggregation Issues
 Who makes the purchasing decision:? DMU (decision
making unit)?
 Roles of individuals
 Purchasing agent?
 User?
 Specifier?
 Gatekeeper?
 Financial analyst?
 How many respondents per unit?
 If more than one, how to aggregate?
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 25
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4. Define Market Segments
 Assume the following data matrix includes the responses from six customers on four
key components of value (10 point rating scale of importance)
 How would you segment this “market”?
Customer
Importance
of
Durability
Importance
of Service
Importance
of Ease of
Use
Importance
of Price
Cluster
Assignment
1 9 4 5 6
2 3 5 10 5
3 4 5 5 10
4 10 6 7 6
5 5 5 7 10
6 6 3 9 5
“Market” 6.2 4.7 6.3 7.0 X
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 26
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Segmentation Process Summary
1. Articulate a strategic rationale for segmentation (i.e., why are
we segmenting this market?).
2. Select a set of needs-based segmentation variables most
useful for achieving the strategic goals.
3. Select a cluster analysis procedure for aggregating (or
disaggregating customers) into segments.
4. Group customers into a defined number of different segments
and describe them…and target them with descriptor data.
5. Target the segments that will best serve the firm’s strategy,
given its capabilities and the likely reactions of competitors.
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 27
© DecisionPro 2007
Segmentation: Methods Overview
 Factor analysis (to reduce data before cluster
analysis).
 Cluster analysis to form segments.
 Discriminant analysis to describe segments.
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 28
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Cluster Analysis for
Segmenting Markets
 Select variables for analysis – these should be based on their
potential for providing meaningful ways to define the needs of
customers.
 Define an overall measure to assess the similarity of customers
on the basis of the needs variables.
 Group customers with similar needs. The software uses the
“Ward’s minimum variance criterion” and, as an option, the K-
Means algorithm for doing this.
 Select the number of segments using numeric and strategic
criteria, and your judgment.
 Profile the needs of the selected segments (e.g., using cluster
means).
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 29
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Cluster Analysis for
Segmenting Markets
 Define a measure to assess the similarity of customers
on the basis of their needs.
 Group customers with similar needs.
 Select the number of segments using numeric and
strategic criteria, and your judgment.
 Profile the needs of the selected segments (e.g., using
cluster means).
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 30
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Doing Cluster Analysis
Dimension 2
Dimension 1
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
• •
Perceptions or ratings data
from one respondent
III
a
I II
b
a = distance from
member to cluster
center
b = distance from I to III
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 31
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Cluster Analysis: Measures of
Association
 Choosing Variables
 Variables with similar values
 Variables with different values
 Defining Measures of similarity between individuals
 Scaled data  distance type measures
 Nominal data  matching-type measures
 Mixed data  Automatic Interaction
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 32
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Matching Coefficients
Essential Features? (Yes or No)
F1 F2 F3 F4 F5 F6 F7 F8
Org.
A
Y Y N N Y Y Y Y
Org.
B
N Y N N N Y Y Y
Org.
C
Y N Y Y Y N N N
Org.
D
Y N N N Y Y Y Y
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 33
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________________
Number of Matches
Total Possible Matches
Similarity Coefficient
=
A B C D
A 1
B 6/8 1
C 2/8 0/8 1
D 7/8 5/8 3/8 1
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 34
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Distance Measures
 Measures of Dissimilarity
 Euclidean distance
 Absolute distance
 Measures of Similarity
 Correlation coefficient rxy
2
2
1
1 )
(
....
)
( nj
ni
j
i x
x
x
x 




nj
ni
j
i x
x
x
x 



 ......
1
1
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 35
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Euclidean Distance Measure
Scaling Problem
Standardize Data : To subtract mean and
divide by Std Dev
2
2
1
1 )
(
...
)
(
tan nj
ni
j
i x
x
x
x
ce
is
EuclideanD 




Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 36
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Euclidean Distance Measure
Income
(Thousands)
Age
(years)
A 34 27
B 23 34
C 55 38
A B C
A 1.00
B 13.04 1.00
C 23.71 32.25 1
mean 37.33 33.00
Std Dev 16.26 5.57
Income
(Thousands)
Age
(years)
A -0.205 -1.078
B -0.882 0.180
C 1.087 0.898
A B C
A 1.00
B 1.43 1.00
C 2.36 2.10 1
 Normal Data Standardized data
 Euclidean Distance
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 37
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Scaling Problem
Income
(Thousands)
Age
(Months)
A -0.205 -1.078
B -0.882 0.180
C 1.087 0.898
A B C
A 1.00
B 1.43 1.00
C 2.36 2.10 1
Income
(Thousands)
Age
(Months)
A 34 324
B 23 408
C 55 456
A B C
A 1.00
B 84.72 1.00
C 133.66 57.69 1
 Normal Data Standardized data
 Euclidean Distance
mean 37.33 33.00
Std Dev 16.26 5.57
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 38
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Clustering Methods
 Hierarchical Methods
 Build-up (Agglomerative)
► Joining clusters using:
• Single Linkage
• Complete
• Average
• Ward’s
 Split-down (Divisive)
► Automatic Interaction Detection (AID)
 Partitioning Methods
 K-means clustering
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 39
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 The single linkage method is based on minimum distance, or the
nearest neighbor rule. At every stage, the distance between two
clusters is the distance between their two closest points.
 The complete linkage method is similar to single linkage, except
that it is based on the maximum distance or the furthest neighbor
approach. In complete linkage, the distance between two
clusters is calculated as the distance between their two furthest
points.
 The average linkage method works similarly. However, in this
method, the distance between two clusters is defined as the
average of the distances between all pairs of objects, where one
member of the pair is from each of the clusters.
Conducting Cluster Analysis
Select a Clustering Procedure – Linkage Method
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Linkage Methods of Clustering
Single Linkage
Minimum Distance
Complete Linkage
Maximum Distance
Average Linkage
Average Distance
Cluster 1 Cluster 2
Cluster 1 Cluster 2
Cluster 1 Cluster 2
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Other Agglomerative Clustering Methods
Ward’s Procedure
Centroid Method
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 42
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Single Linkage Cluster Example
Distance Matrix
Co#1 Co#2 Co#3 Co#4 Co#5
Company #1 0.00
Company #2 1.49 0.00
Company #3 3.42 2.29 0.00
Company #4 1.81 1.99 1.48 0.00
Company #5 5.05 4.82 4.94 4.83 0.00 Resulting
Dendogram
1
2
3
4
5
1 2 3 4 5
Company
Distance
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 43
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Ward’s Clustering Procedure
First Stage: A = 2 B = 5 C = 9 D = 10 E = 15
Second Stage: AB = 4.5 BD = 12.5
AC = 24.5 BE = 50.0
AD = 32.0 CD = 0.5
AE = 84.5 CE = 18.0
BC = 8.0 DE = 12.5
Third Stage: CDA = 38.0 CDB = 14.0 CDE = 20.66 AB = 5.0
AE = 85.0 BE = 50.5
Fourth Stage: ABCD = 41.0 ABE= 93.17 CDE = 25.18
Fifth Stage: ABCDE = 98.8
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 44
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A
98.80
Ward’s Minimum Variance
Agglomerative Clustering Procedure
B C D E
25.18
5.00
0.50
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 45
© DecisionPro 2007
Segmentation Example
 The single linkage method was used to create the following
dendogram. Group the elements into segments as follows:
1. Two segments. List elements in each segment
2. Three segments. List elements in each segment
3. Five segments. List elements in each segment
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 46
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Segmentation Example
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 47
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Interpreting Cluster Analysis
Results
 Select the appropriate number of clusters:
 Are the bases variables highly correlated? (Should we reduce the data through
factor analysis before clustering?)
 Are the clusters separated well from each other?
 Should we combine or separate the clusters?
 Can we come up with descriptive names for each cluster (e.g., professionals,
techno-savvy, etc.)?
 Typically, the market is segmented first, and then you
independently evaluate your ability to reach the segments (i.e.,
separately evaluate segmentation and discriminant analysis results).
However, such an approach may not necessarily result in segments
that can be targeted.
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Profiling Clusters
 Give a description of the clusters based on:
 Variables used for clustering (bases)
 Variables withheld from clustering, but will be
used to identify and target segments (the
descriptors)
 Report the average value of both
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Discriminant Analysis for
Describing Market Segments
 Identify a set of “observable” variables that
helps you to understand how to reach and serve
the needs of selected clusters.
 Use discriminant analysis to identify underlying
dimensions (axes) that maximally differentiate
between the selected clusters.
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 Discriminant score (Z-score) – basis for predicting to which
group the particular individual belongs and is determined by a
linear function. Each respondent is assigned a score by the
calculated discriminant function.
Zi = b1X1i + b2X2i ⋅ ⋅ ⋅ + bnXni
 Zi = ith individual’s discriminant score
 bn = discriminant coefficient for the nth variable
 Xni = individual’s value on the nth independent
variable
Analysis of Dependence
17-50
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Behavior-Based Segmentation:
Choice Models
Expected (gross) customer profitability =
Probability of purchase
x Likely purchase volume if a purchase is made
x Profit margin (for this customer)
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Behavior-Based Segmentation:
Choice Models
A B C D
Average Customer
Purchase Purchase Profitability
Customer Probability Volume Margin = A  B  C
1 30% $31.00 0.70 $6.51
2 2% $143.00 0.60 $1.72
3 10% $54.00 0.67 $3.62
4 5% $88.00 0.62 $2.73
5 60% $20.00 0.58 $6.96
6 22% $60.00 0.47 $6.20
7 11% $77.00 0.38 $3.22
8 13% $39.00 0.66 $3.35
9 1% $184.00 0.56 $1.03
10 4% $72.00 0.65 $1.87
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 53
© DecisionPro 2007
A Key Result from this Specification:
The Multinomial Logit (MNL) Model
eVij
pij = ––––––
 eVik
k
where:
pij = probability that customer i chooses supplier j.
Vij = estimated value of utility (ie, based on estimates of bijk)
obtained from maximum likelihood estimation.
^
^
^
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 54
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Key idea: Segment on the basis of probability of
choice—
1. Loyal to us
2. Loyal to competitor
3. Switchables: loseable/winnable customers
Applying the MNL Model in
Segmentation Studies
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Switchability Segmentation
Current Product-Market by Switchability
(ABB Procedure)
Questions: Where should your marketing efforts be
focused?
How can you segment the market this way?
Loyal to Us Losable
Winnable
Customers
(business to gain)
Loyal to
Competitor
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 56
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Switchability Segmentation
 Loyal, if the firm is a current customer of and its
probability of choosing us is greater than 0.80.
 Competitive, if the firm is a current customer of us
and its choice probability is less than 0.80.
 Lost, if the firm is: (1) not a current customer, and (2)
its probability of buying from one of the competitors
is greater than 0.80, or its probability of buying from
ABB is less than 0.15.
 Switchable, if none of the above applies.
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 57
© DecisionPro 2007
Cus.
ID
Purchase
Volume
($)
District Choice
A
(US)
B C D Type
1 761 1 B 15.30% 82.27% 2.42% 0.01%
Loyal to
B
2 627 1 D 0.00% 0.00% 2.61% 97.39%
Loyal to
D
3 643 2 A 74.70% 25.29% 0.01% 0.00% Comp
4 562 3 D 48.79% 39.73% 0.00% 11.48% Losable
5 469 3 C 1.97% 0.01% 98.02% 0.00%
Loyal to
C
6 233 1 B 0.01% 96.85% 3.09% 0.04%
Loyal to
B
7 664 3 D 40.47% 7.69% 0.08% 51.76% Winnable
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 58
© DecisionPro 2007
Cus.
ID
Purchase
Volume
($)
District Choice
A
(US)
B C D Type
1 761 1 B 15.30% 82.27% 2.42% 0.01%
2 627 1 D 0.00% 0.00% 2.61% 97.39%
3 643 2 A 74.70% 25.29% 0.01% 0.00%
4 562 3 D 48.79% 39.73% 0.00% 11.48%
5 469 3 C 1.97% 0.01% 98.02% 0.00%
6 233 1 B 0.01% 96.85% 3.09% 0.04%
7 664 3 D 40.47% 7.69% 0.08% 51.76%
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 59
© DecisionPro 2007
Profiling Clusters
Two Cluster Solution for PC Data: Need-Based Variables
size power office
use
LAN storage
needs
color periph.
wide
connect.
budget
–1
1
0
Business
Design
Means of
Variables
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 60
© DecisionPro 2007
PDA Visual profile
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
INNO
VATO
R
USE_M
ESSAG
E
USE_CELL
USE_PIM
INF_PASSIVE
INF_ACTIVE
REM
O
TE_ACC
SHARE_INF
M
O
NITO
R
EM
AIL
W
EB
M
_M
EDIA
ERG
O
N
O
M
IC
M
O
NTH
LY
PRICE
Series1
Series2
Series3
Series4
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 61
© DecisionPro 2007
PDA profiles
 Cluster 1. Phone users who use Personal
Information Management software, to whom
Email and Web access, as well as Multimedia
capabilities are important.
 Cluster 2. People who use messaging services and
cell phones, need remote access to information,
appreciate better monitors, but not for multi-media
usage.
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 62
© DecisionPro 2007
PDA profiles..
Cluster 3. Pager users who have a high need for fast
information sharing (receiving as well as sending)
and also remote access. They use neither email
extensively, nor the Web, nor Multi-media, but do
require a handy, non-bulky device.
Cluster 4. Innovators who use cell phones a lot, have
a high need for Email, Web, and Multi-media use.
They also require a sleek device.
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 63
© DecisionPro 2007
Discriminant Analysis for
Describing Market Segments
 Identify a set of “observable” variables that helps
you to understand how to reach and serve the needs
of selected clusters.
 Use discriminant analysis to identify underlying
dimensions (axes) that maximally differentiate
between the selected clusters.
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 64
© DecisionPro 2007
Two-Group Discriminant Analysis
Firm Profitability
Number of
Employees
XXOXOOO
XXXOXXOOOO
XXXXOOOXOOO
XXOXXOXOOOO
XXOXOOOOOOO
X-segment
O-segment
x = High need for wireless internet
o = Low need for wireless internet
Discriminant function
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 65
© DecisionPro 2007
Interpreting Discriminant
Analysis Results
 What proportion of the total variance in the
descriptor data is explained by the statistically
significant discriminant axes?
 Does the model have good predictability (“hit
rate”) in each cluster?
 Can you identify good descriptors to find
differences between clusters? (Examine
correlations between discriminant axes and each
descriptor variable).
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 66
© DecisionPro 2007
Successful Segmentation Results in a
Simple-to-Use Targeting Tool
Classify a potential customer/target into segments.
Discriminant Function Approach
Compute discriminant function scores for each customer/ prospect on
each discriminant function, and assign the customer to the segment
that has its centroid closest to that customer.
Other Approaches (e.g., Tree-based) for Assignment
Classification and Regression Trees (CART)
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 67
© DecisionPro 2007
Obtaining Data for Needs-Based
Segmentation Studies
 Conduct traditional marketing research surveys for
gathering needs data from a random sample of
respondents. Often, a qualitative study (e.g., focus
group) is conducted to determine the appropriate
needs variables.
 Gather data through a “Conjoint” study.
 Obtain descriptor data through a combination of
secondary and primary data sources.
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 68
© DecisionPro 2007
A Good Segmentation Study …
 Identifies segments of customers with differentiated needs.
 How many different segments?
 How do their needs differ?
 Enables segments to be separately targeted/reached (this can be
problematic even if segments have distinctly different needs).
 Finds one or more attractive segments (i.e. a profitable and
separate marketing program can be designed for selected
segments).
 Facilitates the implementation of the segmentation scheme as an
ongoing process, not a discrete project.
Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 69
© DecisionPro 2007
Concluding Remarks
In summary,
 Use needs variables to segment markets.
 Select segments taking into account both the attractiveness
of segments and the strengths of the firm.
 Use descriptor variables to develop a marketing plan to
reach and serve chosen segments.
 Develop mechanisms to implement the segmentation
strategy on a routine basis (one way to do this is through
information technology).

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Principles - Ch3 - Segmentation and Targeting

  • 1. Segmentation and Targeting  STP (Segmentation, Targeting, and Positioning)  Needs-based segmentation  Cluster Analysis  Discriminant Analysis
  • 2. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 2 © DecisionPro 2007 Market Segmentation  Market segmentation is the subdividing of a market into distinct subsets of customers. Segments  Members are different between segments but similar within.
  • 3. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 3 © DecisionPro 2007 STP is a Core Business Process  To identify and select groups of potential customers...  Organizations, Buying Centers, Individuals  Whose needs within-groups are similar and whose needs between-groups are different (S)  Who can be reached profitably (T)  With a focused marketing program (P) STP - (Segmentation, Targeting, Positioning) is a Decision Process
  • 4. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 4 © DecisionPro 2007 Segmentation Marketing Implies a “Market” A market consists of all the potential customers sharing a particular need or want who might be willing and able to engage in exchange to satisfy that need or want.
  • 5. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 5 © DecisionPro 2007 Electric Typewriter Market 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 Shipments A (Us) 403,027 495,192 548,905 550,351 541,388 515,000 B 369,916 388,520 349,396 323,005 342,197 297,000 Other 367,057 324,010 343,885 370,374 202,495 129,070 Total 1,140,000 1,207,722 1,242,186 1,243,730 1,086,080 941,070 Market Shares (%) A (Us) 35.4 41.0 44.2 44.2 49.8 54.7 B 32.4 32.2 28.1 26.0 31.5 31.6 Other 32.2 26.8 27.7 29.8 18.6 13.7
  • 6. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 6 © DecisionPro 2007 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 Shipments A (Us) 403,027 495,192 548,905 550,351 541,388 515,000 B 369,916 388,520 349,396 323,005 342,197 297,000 Other Electric 367,057 324,010 343,885 370,374 202,495 129,070 Electronic Word Processors 60,040 112,220 209,800 392,352 733,699 1,372,016 Total 1,200,040 1,319,942 1,451,986 1,636,082 1,819,778 2,313,086 Market Shares (%) A (Us) 33.6 37.5 37.8 33.6 29.8 22.3 B 30.8 29.4 24.1 19.7 18.8 12.8 Other Electric 30.6 24.5 23.7 22.6 11.1 5.6 Electronic Word Processors 5.0 8.5 14.4 24.0 40.3 59.3 Word Processor Market
  • 7. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 7 © DecisionPro 2007 Segmentation Identify segments Targeting Select segments Positioning Create competitive advantage Marketing resources are focused to better meet customers needs and deliver more value to them Customers develop preference for brands that better meet their needs and deliver more value Customers become brand/supplier loyal, repeat purchase, communicate favorable experiences Brand/supplier loyalty leads to increased market share and creates a barrier to competition Fewer marketing resources needed over time to maintain share due to brand or supplier loyalty Profitability (value to the firm) increases How STP Creates Value
  • 8. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 8 © DecisionPro 2007 The Many Uses of Segmentation Short term segmentation applications:  Salesforce allocation/call planning  Channel assignment  Communication program  Pricing  Today’s competitors and my current relative advantage to the customer
  • 9. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 9 © DecisionPro 2007 The Many Uses of Segmentation Longer term:  Emerging needs  New and evolving market segments to serve  Planning for segment development/growth  Not in kind competition/threats (satisfying customer needs in different ways)  Lead user identification and management  Market driving (vs. customer focused)
  • 10. A Four-Phase Process for Conducting a Successful Segmentation Project Internal Assessment & Planning • Objective(s) of segmentation • Resources • Constraints Database Review • Primary data already available • Secondary data • … Prototype Implementation Exercises • What ifs? • Relevant groups involved? • ….. Qualitative Research • Interview Materials Development   • Qualitative Data Collection   • “Deep needs” Identification   • Decision- Making Process Assessment   Quantitative Survey • Sample Design    • Questionnaire Development    • Data Collection    Segmentation Analysis • Cluster Analysis • Portfolio Analysis • Positioning Analysis Classification Tool Development • Discriminant function • Binary (CART) tree • … Implementation Through Database Tools • Call Center • Web • Sales call patterns • Promotion • …. Phase I Planning and Design Phase II Qualitative Assessment Phase III Quantitative Measurement Phase IV Analysis and Implementation Basic Idea: Do segmentation analysis on a small (random) sample of customers, but leverage the insights across the entire customer base.
  • 11. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 11 © DecisionPro 2007 Needs-Based Segmentation Distinguish Between Bases and Descriptors  Bases—characteristics that tell us why segments differ (e.g., needs, preferences, decision processes).  Descriptors—characteristics that help us find and reach segments. (Business markets) (Consumer markets) Industry Age/Income Size Education Location Profession Organizational Life styles structure Media habits
  • 12. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 12 © DecisionPro 2007 Relevant Segmentation Descriptor Variable A: Climatic Region 1. Snow Belt 2. Moderate Belt 3. Sun Belt Fraction of Customers Likelihood of Purchasing Solar Water Heater (a) 0 100% Segment 1 Segment 2 Segment 3
  • 13. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 13 © DecisionPro 2007 Likelihood of Purchasing Solar Water Heater (b) Irrelevant Segmentation Descriptor Fraction of Customers 0 100% Variable B: Education 1. Low Education 2. Moderate Education 3. High Education Segment 1 Segment 2 Segment 3
  • 14. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 14 © DecisionPro 2007 Variables to Segment and Describe Markets Consumer Markets B2B Markets Segmentation Needs, wants, benefits, Needs, wants, benefits, solutions to Bases solutions to problems, problems, usage situation, usage rate, usage situation, usage rate. size*, industry*. Descriptors Age, income, marital status, Industry, size, location, current Demographics family type & size, supplier(s), technology utilization, gender, social class, etc. etc. Psychographics Lifestyle, values, & Personality characteristics of personality characteristics. decision makers. Behavior Use occasions, usage level, Use occasions, usage level, complementary & complementary & substitute substitute products used, products used, brand loyalty, order brand loyalty, etc. size, applications, etc. Decision Making Individual or group Formalization of purchasing (family) choice, low or high procedures, size & characteristics involvement purchase, of decision making group, use of attitudes and knowledge outside consultants, purchasing about product class, price criteria, (de)centralizing buying, sensitivity, etc. price sensitivity, switching costs, etc. Media Patterns Level of use, types of Level of use, types of media used, media used, times of use, time of use, patronage at trade shows, etc. receptivity of sales people, etc.
  • 15. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 15 © DecisionPro 2007 STP as Business Strategy Segmentation  Identify segmentation bases and segment the market.  Develop profiles of resulting segments. Targeting  Evaluate attractiveness of each segment.  Select target segments. Positioning  Identify possible positioning concepts for each target segment.  Select, develop, and communicate the chosen concept. … to create and claim value
  • 16. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 16 © DecisionPro 2007 A Note on Positioning Positioning involves designing an offering so that the target segment members perceive it in a distinct and valued way relative to competitors. Three ways to position an offering: 1. Unique (“Only product/service with XXX”) 2. Difference (“More than twice the [feature] vs. [competitor]”) 3. Similarities (“Same functionality as [competitor]; lower price”) What are you telling your targeted segments?
  • 17. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 17 © DecisionPro 2007 .. . D . . .. . . Segmentation (for Carpet Fibers) A,B,C,D: Location of segment centers. Typical members: A: schools B: light commercial C: indoor/outdoor carpeting D: health clubs Distance between segments C and D . .. . . . Strength (Importance) Water Resistance (Importance) ..... . .. A ..... . .. . . . . ..... . .. . . . . ... .. .. C B Perceptions/Ratings for one respondent: Customer Values .
  • 18. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 18 © DecisionPro 2007 ..... . .. . . . . ..... . .. . . . . Water Resistance (Importance) Targeting Segment(s) to serve ..... . .. . . ..... . .. . . . . Strength (Importance)
  • 19. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 19 © DecisionPro 2007 Example Criteria for Determining Target Segments to Serve Criterion Examples of Considerations I. Size and Growth 1. Size • Market potential, current market penetration 2. Growth • Past growth forecasts of technology change II. Structural Characteristics 3. Competition • Barriers to entry, barriers to exit, position of competitors, ability to retaliate 4. Segment saturation • Gaps in the market 5. Protectability • Patentability of products, barriers to entry 6. Environmental risk • Economic, political, and technological change III. Product-Market Fit 7. Fit • Coherence with company’s strengths and image 8. Relationships with • Synergy, cost interactions, image transfers, segments cannibalization 9. Profitability • Entry costs, margin levels, return on investment
  • 20. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 20 © DecisionPro 2007 Variable Typical Breakdown Age Under 6, 6-11, 12-19, 20-34, 35-49, 50-64, 65+ Gender Male, female Family size 1-2, 3-4, 5+ Family life Young, single; young, married, no children; young, married, youngest child under six; cycle young, married, oldest child over six; older, married, with children; older, married, no children under 18; older, single; other Income Under $10,000; $10,001-$15,000; $15,001-$20,000; $20,001-$30,000; $30,001-$50,000; $50,001-$100,000; over $100,000 Demographic Segmentation Examples
  • 21. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 21 © DecisionPro 2007 Variable Typical Breakdown Occupation Professional and technical; managers, officials, and proprietors; clerical, sales; craftspeople; farmers; laborers; retired; students; housewives; unemployed Education Grade school or less; some high school; high school; some college; college graduate; graduate degree Religion Catholic, Protestant, Jewish, Muslim, Hindu, other Race White, black, Asian, Hispanic Nationality American, British, French, German, Italian, Japanese Demographic Segmentation Examples
  • 22. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 22 © DecisionPro 2007 Variable Typical Breakdown Lifestyle Activities, interests, opinions Personality Compulsive, gregarious, authoritarian, ambitious Values Sense of belonging, excitement, warm relationships with others, self-fulfillment, security, being well respected, fun and enjoyment of life, self-respect, sense of accomplishment Psychographic Segmentation Examples
  • 23. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 23 © DecisionPro 2007 Variable Typical Breakdown Usage situation Regular occasion, special occasion Benefits Quality, service, economy, speed User status Nonuser, ex-user, potential user, first-time user, regular user Usage rate Light user, medium user, heavy user Loyalty status None, medium, strong, absolute Readiness stage Unaware, aware, informed, interested, desirous, intending to buy Attitude toward Enthusiastic, positive, indifferent, product negative, hostile Behavioral Segmentation Examples
  • 24. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 24 © DecisionPro 2007 Respondent Selection/Aggregation Issues  Who makes the purchasing decision:? DMU (decision making unit)?  Roles of individuals  Purchasing agent?  User?  Specifier?  Gatekeeper?  Financial analyst?  How many respondents per unit?  If more than one, how to aggregate?
  • 25. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 25 © DecisionPro 2007 4. Define Market Segments  Assume the following data matrix includes the responses from six customers on four key components of value (10 point rating scale of importance)  How would you segment this “market”? Customer Importance of Durability Importance of Service Importance of Ease of Use Importance of Price Cluster Assignment 1 9 4 5 6 2 3 5 10 5 3 4 5 5 10 4 10 6 7 6 5 5 5 7 10 6 6 3 9 5 “Market” 6.2 4.7 6.3 7.0 X
  • 26. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 26 © DecisionPro 2007 Segmentation Process Summary 1. Articulate a strategic rationale for segmentation (i.e., why are we segmenting this market?). 2. Select a set of needs-based segmentation variables most useful for achieving the strategic goals. 3. Select a cluster analysis procedure for aggregating (or disaggregating customers) into segments. 4. Group customers into a defined number of different segments and describe them…and target them with descriptor data. 5. Target the segments that will best serve the firm’s strategy, given its capabilities and the likely reactions of competitors.
  • 27. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 27 © DecisionPro 2007 Segmentation: Methods Overview  Factor analysis (to reduce data before cluster analysis).  Cluster analysis to form segments.  Discriminant analysis to describe segments.
  • 28. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 28 © DecisionPro 2007 Cluster Analysis for Segmenting Markets  Select variables for analysis – these should be based on their potential for providing meaningful ways to define the needs of customers.  Define an overall measure to assess the similarity of customers on the basis of the needs variables.  Group customers with similar needs. The software uses the “Ward’s minimum variance criterion” and, as an option, the K- Means algorithm for doing this.  Select the number of segments using numeric and strategic criteria, and your judgment.  Profile the needs of the selected segments (e.g., using cluster means).
  • 29. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 29 © DecisionPro 2007 Cluster Analysis for Segmenting Markets  Define a measure to assess the similarity of customers on the basis of their needs.  Group customers with similar needs.  Select the number of segments using numeric and strategic criteria, and your judgment.  Profile the needs of the selected segments (e.g., using cluster means).
  • 30. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 30 © DecisionPro 2007 Doing Cluster Analysis Dimension 2 Dimension 1 • • • • • • • • • • • • Perceptions or ratings data from one respondent III a I II b a = distance from member to cluster center b = distance from I to III
  • 31. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 31 © DecisionPro 2007 Cluster Analysis: Measures of Association  Choosing Variables  Variables with similar values  Variables with different values  Defining Measures of similarity between individuals  Scaled data  distance type measures  Nominal data  matching-type measures  Mixed data  Automatic Interaction
  • 32. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 32 © DecisionPro 2007 Matching Coefficients Essential Features? (Yes or No) F1 F2 F3 F4 F5 F6 F7 F8 Org. A Y Y N N Y Y Y Y Org. B N Y N N N Y Y Y Org. C Y N Y Y Y N N N Org. D Y N N N Y Y Y Y
  • 33. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 33 © DecisionPro 2007 ________________ Number of Matches Total Possible Matches Similarity Coefficient = A B C D A 1 B 6/8 1 C 2/8 0/8 1 D 7/8 5/8 3/8 1
  • 34. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 34 © DecisionPro 2007 Distance Measures  Measures of Dissimilarity  Euclidean distance  Absolute distance  Measures of Similarity  Correlation coefficient rxy 2 2 1 1 ) ( .... ) ( nj ni j i x x x x      nj ni j i x x x x      ...... 1 1
  • 35. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 35 © DecisionPro 2007 Euclidean Distance Measure Scaling Problem Standardize Data : To subtract mean and divide by Std Dev 2 2 1 1 ) ( ... ) ( tan nj ni j i x x x x ce is EuclideanD     
  • 36. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 36 © DecisionPro 2007 Euclidean Distance Measure Income (Thousands) Age (years) A 34 27 B 23 34 C 55 38 A B C A 1.00 B 13.04 1.00 C 23.71 32.25 1 mean 37.33 33.00 Std Dev 16.26 5.57 Income (Thousands) Age (years) A -0.205 -1.078 B -0.882 0.180 C 1.087 0.898 A B C A 1.00 B 1.43 1.00 C 2.36 2.10 1  Normal Data Standardized data  Euclidean Distance
  • 37. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 37 © DecisionPro 2007 Scaling Problem Income (Thousands) Age (Months) A -0.205 -1.078 B -0.882 0.180 C 1.087 0.898 A B C A 1.00 B 1.43 1.00 C 2.36 2.10 1 Income (Thousands) Age (Months) A 34 324 B 23 408 C 55 456 A B C A 1.00 B 84.72 1.00 C 133.66 57.69 1  Normal Data Standardized data  Euclidean Distance mean 37.33 33.00 Std Dev 16.26 5.57
  • 38. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 38 © DecisionPro 2007 Clustering Methods  Hierarchical Methods  Build-up (Agglomerative) ► Joining clusters using: • Single Linkage • Complete • Average • Ward’s  Split-down (Divisive) ► Automatic Interaction Detection (AID)  Partitioning Methods  K-means clustering
  • 39. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 39 © DecisionPro 2007  The single linkage method is based on minimum distance, or the nearest neighbor rule. At every stage, the distance between two clusters is the distance between their two closest points.  The complete linkage method is similar to single linkage, except that it is based on the maximum distance or the furthest neighbor approach. In complete linkage, the distance between two clusters is calculated as the distance between their two furthest points.  The average linkage method works similarly. However, in this method, the distance between two clusters is defined as the average of the distances between all pairs of objects, where one member of the pair is from each of the clusters. Conducting Cluster Analysis Select a Clustering Procedure – Linkage Method
  • 40. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 40 © DecisionPro 2007 Linkage Methods of Clustering Single Linkage Minimum Distance Complete Linkage Maximum Distance Average Linkage Average Distance Cluster 1 Cluster 2 Cluster 1 Cluster 2 Cluster 1 Cluster 2
  • 41. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 41 © DecisionPro 2007 Other Agglomerative Clustering Methods Ward’s Procedure Centroid Method
  • 42. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 42 © DecisionPro 2007 Single Linkage Cluster Example Distance Matrix Co#1 Co#2 Co#3 Co#4 Co#5 Company #1 0.00 Company #2 1.49 0.00 Company #3 3.42 2.29 0.00 Company #4 1.81 1.99 1.48 0.00 Company #5 5.05 4.82 4.94 4.83 0.00 Resulting Dendogram 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 Company Distance
  • 43. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 43 © DecisionPro 2007 Ward’s Clustering Procedure First Stage: A = 2 B = 5 C = 9 D = 10 E = 15 Second Stage: AB = 4.5 BD = 12.5 AC = 24.5 BE = 50.0 AD = 32.0 CD = 0.5 AE = 84.5 CE = 18.0 BC = 8.0 DE = 12.5 Third Stage: CDA = 38.0 CDB = 14.0 CDE = 20.66 AB = 5.0 AE = 85.0 BE = 50.5 Fourth Stage: ABCD = 41.0 ABE= 93.17 CDE = 25.18 Fifth Stage: ABCDE = 98.8
  • 44. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 44 © DecisionPro 2007 A 98.80 Ward’s Minimum Variance Agglomerative Clustering Procedure B C D E 25.18 5.00 0.50
  • 45. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 45 © DecisionPro 2007 Segmentation Example  The single linkage method was used to create the following dendogram. Group the elements into segments as follows: 1. Two segments. List elements in each segment 2. Three segments. List elements in each segment 3. Five segments. List elements in each segment
  • 46. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 46 © DecisionPro 2007 Segmentation Example
  • 47. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 47 © DecisionPro 2007 Interpreting Cluster Analysis Results  Select the appropriate number of clusters:  Are the bases variables highly correlated? (Should we reduce the data through factor analysis before clustering?)  Are the clusters separated well from each other?  Should we combine or separate the clusters?  Can we come up with descriptive names for each cluster (e.g., professionals, techno-savvy, etc.)?  Typically, the market is segmented first, and then you independently evaluate your ability to reach the segments (i.e., separately evaluate segmentation and discriminant analysis results). However, such an approach may not necessarily result in segments that can be targeted.
  • 48. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 48 © DecisionPro 2007 Profiling Clusters  Give a description of the clusters based on:  Variables used for clustering (bases)  Variables withheld from clustering, but will be used to identify and target segments (the descriptors)  Report the average value of both
  • 49. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 49 © DecisionPro 2007 Discriminant Analysis for Describing Market Segments  Identify a set of “observable” variables that helps you to understand how to reach and serve the needs of selected clusters.  Use discriminant analysis to identify underlying dimensions (axes) that maximally differentiate between the selected clusters.
  • 50. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 50 © DecisionPro 2007  Discriminant score (Z-score) – basis for predicting to which group the particular individual belongs and is determined by a linear function. Each respondent is assigned a score by the calculated discriminant function. Zi = b1X1i + b2X2i ⋅ ⋅ ⋅ + bnXni  Zi = ith individual’s discriminant score  bn = discriminant coefficient for the nth variable  Xni = individual’s value on the nth independent variable Analysis of Dependence 17-50
  • 51. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 51 © DecisionPro 2007 Behavior-Based Segmentation: Choice Models Expected (gross) customer profitability = Probability of purchase x Likely purchase volume if a purchase is made x Profit margin (for this customer)
  • 52. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 52 © DecisionPro 2007 Behavior-Based Segmentation: Choice Models A B C D Average Customer Purchase Purchase Profitability Customer Probability Volume Margin = A  B  C 1 30% $31.00 0.70 $6.51 2 2% $143.00 0.60 $1.72 3 10% $54.00 0.67 $3.62 4 5% $88.00 0.62 $2.73 5 60% $20.00 0.58 $6.96 6 22% $60.00 0.47 $6.20 7 11% $77.00 0.38 $3.22 8 13% $39.00 0.66 $3.35 9 1% $184.00 0.56 $1.03 10 4% $72.00 0.65 $1.87
  • 53. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 53 © DecisionPro 2007 A Key Result from this Specification: The Multinomial Logit (MNL) Model eVij pij = ––––––  eVik k where: pij = probability that customer i chooses supplier j. Vij = estimated value of utility (ie, based on estimates of bijk) obtained from maximum likelihood estimation. ^ ^ ^
  • 54. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 54 © DecisionPro 2007 Key idea: Segment on the basis of probability of choice— 1. Loyal to us 2. Loyal to competitor 3. Switchables: loseable/winnable customers Applying the MNL Model in Segmentation Studies
  • 55. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 55 © DecisionPro 2007 Switchability Segmentation Current Product-Market by Switchability (ABB Procedure) Questions: Where should your marketing efforts be focused? How can you segment the market this way? Loyal to Us Losable Winnable Customers (business to gain) Loyal to Competitor
  • 56. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 56 © DecisionPro 2007 Switchability Segmentation  Loyal, if the firm is a current customer of and its probability of choosing us is greater than 0.80.  Competitive, if the firm is a current customer of us and its choice probability is less than 0.80.  Lost, if the firm is: (1) not a current customer, and (2) its probability of buying from one of the competitors is greater than 0.80, or its probability of buying from ABB is less than 0.15.  Switchable, if none of the above applies.
  • 57. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 57 © DecisionPro 2007 Cus. ID Purchase Volume ($) District Choice A (US) B C D Type 1 761 1 B 15.30% 82.27% 2.42% 0.01% Loyal to B 2 627 1 D 0.00% 0.00% 2.61% 97.39% Loyal to D 3 643 2 A 74.70% 25.29% 0.01% 0.00% Comp 4 562 3 D 48.79% 39.73% 0.00% 11.48% Losable 5 469 3 C 1.97% 0.01% 98.02% 0.00% Loyal to C 6 233 1 B 0.01% 96.85% 3.09% 0.04% Loyal to B 7 664 3 D 40.47% 7.69% 0.08% 51.76% Winnable
  • 58. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 58 © DecisionPro 2007 Cus. ID Purchase Volume ($) District Choice A (US) B C D Type 1 761 1 B 15.30% 82.27% 2.42% 0.01% 2 627 1 D 0.00% 0.00% 2.61% 97.39% 3 643 2 A 74.70% 25.29% 0.01% 0.00% 4 562 3 D 48.79% 39.73% 0.00% 11.48% 5 469 3 C 1.97% 0.01% 98.02% 0.00% 6 233 1 B 0.01% 96.85% 3.09% 0.04% 7 664 3 D 40.47% 7.69% 0.08% 51.76%
  • 59. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 59 © DecisionPro 2007 Profiling Clusters Two Cluster Solution for PC Data: Need-Based Variables size power office use LAN storage needs color periph. wide connect. budget –1 1 0 Business Design Means of Variables
  • 60. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 60 © DecisionPro 2007 PDA Visual profile 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 INNO VATO R USE_M ESSAG E USE_CELL USE_PIM INF_PASSIVE INF_ACTIVE REM O TE_ACC SHARE_INF M O NITO R EM AIL W EB M _M EDIA ERG O N O M IC M O NTH LY PRICE Series1 Series2 Series3 Series4
  • 61. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 61 © DecisionPro 2007 PDA profiles  Cluster 1. Phone users who use Personal Information Management software, to whom Email and Web access, as well as Multimedia capabilities are important.  Cluster 2. People who use messaging services and cell phones, need remote access to information, appreciate better monitors, but not for multi-media usage.
  • 62. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 62 © DecisionPro 2007 PDA profiles.. Cluster 3. Pager users who have a high need for fast information sharing (receiving as well as sending) and also remote access. They use neither email extensively, nor the Web, nor Multi-media, but do require a handy, non-bulky device. Cluster 4. Innovators who use cell phones a lot, have a high need for Email, Web, and Multi-media use. They also require a sleek device.
  • 63. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 63 © DecisionPro 2007 Discriminant Analysis for Describing Market Segments  Identify a set of “observable” variables that helps you to understand how to reach and serve the needs of selected clusters.  Use discriminant analysis to identify underlying dimensions (axes) that maximally differentiate between the selected clusters.
  • 64. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 64 © DecisionPro 2007 Two-Group Discriminant Analysis Firm Profitability Number of Employees XXOXOOO XXXOXXOOOO XXXXOOOXOOO XXOXXOXOOOO XXOXOOOOOOO X-segment O-segment x = High need for wireless internet o = Low need for wireless internet Discriminant function
  • 65. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 65 © DecisionPro 2007 Interpreting Discriminant Analysis Results  What proportion of the total variance in the descriptor data is explained by the statistically significant discriminant axes?  Does the model have good predictability (“hit rate”) in each cluster?  Can you identify good descriptors to find differences between clusters? (Examine correlations between discriminant axes and each descriptor variable).
  • 66. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 66 © DecisionPro 2007 Successful Segmentation Results in a Simple-to-Use Targeting Tool Classify a potential customer/target into segments. Discriminant Function Approach Compute discriminant function scores for each customer/ prospect on each discriminant function, and assign the customer to the segment that has its centroid closest to that customer. Other Approaches (e.g., Tree-based) for Assignment Classification and Regression Trees (CART)
  • 67. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 67 © DecisionPro 2007 Obtaining Data for Needs-Based Segmentation Studies  Conduct traditional marketing research surveys for gathering needs data from a random sample of respondents. Often, a qualitative study (e.g., focus group) is conducted to determine the appropriate needs variables.  Gather data through a “Conjoint” study.  Obtain descriptor data through a combination of secondary and primary data sources.
  • 68. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 68 © DecisionPro 2007 A Good Segmentation Study …  Identifies segments of customers with differentiated needs.  How many different segments?  How do their needs differ?  Enables segments to be separately targeted/reached (this can be problematic even if segments have distinctly different needs).  Finds one or more attractive segments (i.e. a profitable and separate marketing program can be designed for selected segments).  Facilitates the implementation of the segmentation scheme as an ongoing process, not a discrete project.
  • 69. Principles Chapter 3: Segmentation and Targeting - 69 © DecisionPro 2007 Concluding Remarks In summary,  Use needs variables to segment markets.  Select segments taking into account both the attractiveness of segments and the strengths of the firm.  Use descriptor variables to develop a marketing plan to reach and serve chosen segments.  Develop mechanisms to implement the segmentation strategy on a routine basis (one way to do this is through information technology).