10. A Lei do Fracasso
A maioria das novas ideias
falham
...
11. Mais de 95% dos aplicativos mobile nao sao
lucrativos
4 a cada 5 startups disperdicam o dinheiro
dos investidores
As tecnologias mais inovadoras falham no
mercado
...
12. Em um ano, 24.543 novos
produtos*
Falharam 27%
Desapontaram 16%
Cancelados 37%
Sucesso 14%
“Espetaculares” 6%
Total 100%
* Nielsen
80%
13. Novos Produtos
Categoria # de produtos % de produtos
Breakthrough
(exemplo: Iphone)
334 1.4%
Line or category
Extension
1,705 6.9%
“Me too”
(exemplo: genericos)
18,814 76.7%
Others
(seasonal, etc.)
3,690 15.0%
Total 24,543 100%
* Nielsen
14. Categoria # de produtos % de produtos
Breakthrough
(exemplo: Iphone)
334 1.4%
Line or category
Extension
1,705 6.9%
“Me too”
(exemplo: genericos)
18,814 76.7%
Others
(seasonal, etc.)
3,690 15.0%
Total 24,543 100%
Novos Produtos
* Nielsen
Porque?
Porque?
15. Novos Produtos
* Nielsen
Categoria # de produtos % de produtos
Breakthrough
(exemplo: Iphone)
334 1.4%
Line or category
Extension
1,705 6.9%
“Me too”
(exemplo: genericos)
18,814 76.7%
Others
(seasonal, etc.)
3,690 15.0%
Total 24,543 100%
Pouca disputa,
Pouca disputa,
Mas GRANDE resultado
Mas GRANDE resultado
16. A Lei do Fracasso
A maioria das novas ideias
falham
MESMO QUE ELAS SEJAM MUITO BEM EXECUTADAS
17. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Alguns fracassos notaveis
• Iridium satellite phone system (66 satellites, $6B)
18. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Alguns fracassos notaveis
• “New Coke” ou “Crystal Pepsi” (est. $50M)
19. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Alguns fracassos notaveis
• Filme “John Carter” ($275M + $100M in marketing)
20. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Alguns fracassos notaveis
• Google Wave (~$20-30M)
21. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Alguns fracassos notaveis
• Segway transporter (~$180M in funding)
47. “Nos amamos a ideia de traducao de fala
para texto e nos estamos dispostos a
pagar muito dinheiro se voce conseguir
construir bem feito”
Antes dos testes
com pretotype
Porcentagem
de
pessoas
interessadas
48. Dear Mr. Jones,
In reply to your letter dated ...
Pretendotype
Pretotype
X
70. Pretotype It!
Pawsbook: Social network for pets (B2C)
GhostBus: Self-driving city buses (B2B, B2Gov)
Offering free lunch and dinner to all employees (Internal)
UNuke: Small nuclear power stations for rural communities (B2Gov)
Vanity Fare: Food/drinks enriched with ingredients for great skin and hair (B2B)
HappyGlass: Windows that convert/create light spectrum to fight SAD (Seasonal Affective
Disorders) (B2B or B2C)
GoldHound: A luxury version of GreyHound with first-class seating and treatment (B2B)
InstaNap: The opposite of energy drinks like RedBull or 5hr Energy (B2B)
SpeedInterviewing: Like speed-dating but for candidate interviews (Internal)
2nd-day Sushi: Less-fresh but lower-cost sushi (B2C)
Rent-a-mechanic: Rent an expert for used car shopping and negotiating (B2C)
Self-funded extended warranty: Automatically saves in a your fund from each purchase (B2C)
EatSlow plates: Food plates that open and close to slow down your eating (B2C)
Biodegradable holiday lights: Lights that take themselves down after the holidays (B2C)
TakeMySpot: Mobile app/service to auction the parking spot you are about to vacate (B2C, B2Gov)
OopsMail: a corporate email filter that automatically detects & re-routs inappropriate emails
(B2C, Internal)
Fake-a-Mate: Rent a pretend great boy/girlfriend for social events (B2C)
ReviewsNow: a mobile app for on-the-spot/real-time employee micro-reviews and feedback
(Internal)
MeetGrinder: a smart corporate calendar that (re)arranges meetings to maximize meeting-free
time (B2B, Internal)
71.
72. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Quer saber mais?
gfcmotta@gmail.com
PDF Gratis e na Amazon
Quer em Portugues? Ajude a traduzir!
Livros Videos
Twitter: @gfcmotta
asavoia@gmail.com Twitter: @Pretotyping
74. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Pretotyping [pree-tuh-tahy-ping],
verb: Validating the market
appeal and actual usage of a
potential objectively,
quantifiably and with the
smallest possible investment of
time and money.
75. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
An Intro to
Pretotyping Metrics
RPI: Return on Pretotyping Investment
ILI/OLI: Initial/Ongoing Level of
Interest
PretoBayesian Metrics: How to factor
in the impact of pretotyping data in
decision making
77. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Learning (Pre) Cost (Pro)
RPI = ______________ _____________
Learning (Pro) Cost (Pre)
X
RPI
How much (%) can you learn
from a given pretotype
compared to the full product.
How much (%) can you learn
from a prototype or final
product. Set to 100% for the
final product.
How much would it cost (time
or $) to develop and
test/market a prototype or the
final product.
How much would it cost (time
or $) to create and test a
given pretotype.
79. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
What should we learn?
(before we blow $100M)
Will people use the web to order groceries?
What % of people would use it?
How often would they use it?
Will people in cities use it more than people in
suburbs?
What kind of products will they buy?
What’s the $ value of average transaction?
How many will continue to use it after the novelty has
worn off?
80. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Pretotype for
Pretotype 1: MVP
Create a high-quality website.
Advertise locally in a major city (e.g., San Francisco) and a suburb
(e.g., Palo Alto.)
If/when orders come in, purchase food at existing stores.
Rent delivery trucks and hire temporary personnel to deliver food.
Run experiment for, say, 4 weeks.
82. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
RPI vs RIP
We shouldaWe shoulda
pretotypedpretotyped
it!it!
Yup.Yup.
83. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Time RPI for
.50 60 mos
.80 1 mos
RPI = .62 x 60 = 37.5x “faster learning”
Learning (Pre) Cost (Pro)
RPI = ______________ _____________
Learning (Pro) Cost (Pre)
X
84. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
ILI/OLI
Level of Interest
(If we build, will they come?)
85. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
ILI
Initial Level of Interest:
What % of a target group is
interested in ‘it’ to give it a
try?
86. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
ILI
ILI = ________________________________
# invited to try ‘it’
# who’ve actually tried ‘it’
87. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Small
representative
sample (~100-
1,000)
I (1000)
Time
T (741)
ILI in Action
Target market
ILI = 741/1,000 = .741
88. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
OLI
Ongoing Level of Interest:
What % of a target group
continues to use/buy ‘it’ after
they’ve tried it.
89. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
OLI(t)
OLI(t) = __________________________________________
# who tried ‘it’
# still using ‘it’ after time t
90. Copyright (c) 2012 Pretotype Labs
Time
I (people invited to try innovation)
T (people who actually try it)
R4 (...4 weeks)
R2 (...2 weeks)
R1 (return/retained users after 1 week)
ILI: Initial Level of Interest
OLI: Ongoing Level of Interest
OLI in Action
