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Beyond anecdotal evidence of land
        acquisitions in Lao PDR

First results on: Dimension and Geography of LA in
                      Lao PDR




       Andreas Heinimann, Oliver Schoenweger, Michael Epprecht,
                      Palikone Thalongsengchan

                       LIWG Food security WS
                           1st June 2012
Mushrooming of land concessions & leases in the last decade



          Nr. of land concessions & leases
CPL induced landscape transformation
Information and knowledge sources:

Local case studies &   Systematic national data
     evidence          Dimension, contexts
    processes               and pattern

                        3’600 deals, whereof
                         2’640 concessions
                         type, 1,350 with spatial
                         reference
                        1.1 Mio ha concessions
                         (without mining
                         exploration)
                        Agri 140’000 ha &
                         forestry: 300’000 ha
                        ~15% of all villages
                         have a least 1
                         concession
Emerging patterns by sector




                              Source: CDE, MoNRE, GIZ
                              Preliminary results; do not cite
Products of agricultural concessions




                    N = 360, Area = 140’000 ha




                                                 Source: CDE, MoNRE, GIZ
                                                 Preliminary results; do not cite
Products of forestry concessions




                    N = 367, Area = 306’000 ha




                                                 Source: CDE, MoNRE, GIZ
                                                 Preliminary results; do not cite
Spatial patterns by Investor




                               Source: CDE, MoNRE, GIZ
                               Preliminary results; do not cite
Pattern by Investor: Focus on Agri & forestry sectors




                                        Sugarcane




                             Jatropha




                                                    Source: CDE, MoNRE, GIZ
                                                    Preliminary results; do not cite
Contexts of concessions: e.g. Poverty




                               Av. National
                               poverty rate




                                        Source: CDE, MoNRE, GIZ
                                        Preliminary results; do not cite
Contexts of concessions: Accessibility




                                     Source: CDE, MoNRE, GIZ
                                     Preliminary results; do not cite
Contexts of concessions: Land cover




Note:
Caution is needed
when
interpreting, as
2002 land cover
data is
problematic (e.g.
“unstocked forest”
or “forest issue”)
Tendency of shifting upland crops to hinterland due to
   commercial crop pressure in well accessibly regions
      Shifting cultivation dominated landscapes between 2001 - 2009




                                                        K. Hurni , et al, in prep
Summary & some key messages
•   This is first , one point in time, picture of dimension and
    context of land deals. (But 1. contract farming not included
    in this and 2. the distributed mandates among the sectors
    do not yet ensure consistent monitoring & sharing)
•   Only very few products dominate the land rented out in the
    agriculture and forestry sector
•   FDI deals are on average by factor 3 -5 time larger in terms
    of area granted than domestic ones, and by tendency in
    more remote regions
•   Land deals are not mainly in the very marginal areas (in
    terms of poverty, accessibility and ethnicity), but still a
    considerable share of such regions is potentially affected
•   Some indications that land deals are to a considerable
    share taking place in regions with rotational agricultural
    systems
•   Some signs that, due to CPL pressure in better accessible
    regions, subsistence food production is shifted to more
    remote location (temporary symptom only ?)
NOTE: Hydropower reservoirs are NOT
concessions, hence not in this inventory
Presentation andreas heinimann cde tabi 1 june 2012 food security
Presentation andreas heinimann cde tabi 1 june 2012 food security

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Presentation andreas heinimann cde tabi 1 june 2012 food security

  • 1. Beyond anecdotal evidence of land acquisitions in Lao PDR First results on: Dimension and Geography of LA in Lao PDR Andreas Heinimann, Oliver Schoenweger, Michael Epprecht, Palikone Thalongsengchan LIWG Food security WS 1st June 2012
  • 2. Mushrooming of land concessions & leases in the last decade Nr. of land concessions & leases
  • 3. CPL induced landscape transformation
  • 4. Information and knowledge sources: Local case studies & Systematic national data evidence Dimension, contexts  processes and pattern  3’600 deals, whereof 2’640 concessions type, 1,350 with spatial reference  1.1 Mio ha concessions (without mining exploration)  Agri 140’000 ha & forestry: 300’000 ha  ~15% of all villages have a least 1 concession
  • 5. Emerging patterns by sector Source: CDE, MoNRE, GIZ Preliminary results; do not cite
  • 6. Products of agricultural concessions N = 360, Area = 140’000 ha Source: CDE, MoNRE, GIZ Preliminary results; do not cite
  • 7. Products of forestry concessions N = 367, Area = 306’000 ha Source: CDE, MoNRE, GIZ Preliminary results; do not cite
  • 8. Spatial patterns by Investor Source: CDE, MoNRE, GIZ Preliminary results; do not cite
  • 9. Pattern by Investor: Focus on Agri & forestry sectors Sugarcane Jatropha Source: CDE, MoNRE, GIZ Preliminary results; do not cite
  • 10. Contexts of concessions: e.g. Poverty Av. National poverty rate Source: CDE, MoNRE, GIZ Preliminary results; do not cite
  • 11. Contexts of concessions: Accessibility Source: CDE, MoNRE, GIZ Preliminary results; do not cite
  • 12. Contexts of concessions: Land cover Note: Caution is needed when interpreting, as 2002 land cover data is problematic (e.g. “unstocked forest” or “forest issue”)
  • 13. Tendency of shifting upland crops to hinterland due to commercial crop pressure in well accessibly regions Shifting cultivation dominated landscapes between 2001 - 2009 K. Hurni , et al, in prep
  • 14. Summary & some key messages • This is first , one point in time, picture of dimension and context of land deals. (But 1. contract farming not included in this and 2. the distributed mandates among the sectors do not yet ensure consistent monitoring & sharing) • Only very few products dominate the land rented out in the agriculture and forestry sector • FDI deals are on average by factor 3 -5 time larger in terms of area granted than domestic ones, and by tendency in more remote regions • Land deals are not mainly in the very marginal areas (in terms of poverty, accessibility and ethnicity), but still a considerable share of such regions is potentially affected • Some indications that land deals are to a considerable share taking place in regions with rotational agricultural systems • Some signs that, due to CPL pressure in better accessible regions, subsistence food production is shifted to more remote location (temporary symptom only ?)
  • 15.
  • 16. NOTE: Hydropower reservoirs are NOT concessions, hence not in this inventory

Editor's Notes

  1. Mning, forest & agro > 90% area but 78% or projects
  2. Mning, forest & agro > 90% area but 78% or projects
  3. 4 producs make more than 2/3Sugarecane & jartropha (as biofuels) m 43%Investor thai (40) > clao (15) > s korea > china > vietnam
  4. China (24%) > vn > JV (22) > lao
  5. China & vietnam 60% or area but only 23% of projectchina, vietnam and laos make up 70% of areaChina and vietam 60% of area but only 25% of projectRow LabelsSum of Area_Final%China499571.374535.75013Vietnam306975.002521.96762Laos179882.218912.87266Thailand75890.699075.43086
  6. Size is a factor in negosation power Av sugarcane is over 3000ha whiel cassava, jartopha and cofee are around 500 ha only
  7. Overage povertry rate may seem below average, BUT still 30% of villages severly poor (as the bigger villages nd towns wwith low povertry rates) skew the pivturefForetsr far above, consider that these the large sale &  inbalanceinnegosiation power
  8. Reflects overal picture with forest & rotational agri areas totally > 80
  9. Share mine & hydro 10% of gdpexpeced over 20% by 2020Higher economic growth (hydropower and mining contributed 2.5 of the annual 7 percent growth in Laos in the • last three years)significant increase in fiscal revenues (mining and hydro now constitute about 20 percent of total reven20% by 2020 of gdb