SlideShare a Scribd company logo
ISIS and Smuggled Crude Oil
(June 2015)
Prepared by:
Dr. Alec Coutroubis, Principal Lecturer
and
George Kiourktsoglou, Visiting Lecturer
In Lieu of an Introduction
• This research is INCONCLUSIVE ;
• It NEITHER implies NOR corroborates any
collusion between national governments or
regional authorities and ISIS ;
The Context (I)
• Terrorist Organization ;
• Stated goal: a caliphate
merging parts of Iraq, Syria
and Lebanon into one Islamic
state-entity ;
• Motley crew of Sunni fighters from Iraq’s local
Al-Qaeda franchise and S. Hussein’s die-hard
republican army. Appr. 3000 foreign fighters ;
• Capital: Raqqa ;
ISIS Map (as of March 2015)
Source: New York Times, ‘Despite Tikrit Loss, ISIS Still Holds Large Swaths of Iraq‘, http://goo.gl/FNRdwJ, [upd. April 2015]
The Context (II):
the Financial Means
• Extortion ;
• Crime Syndication ;
• Hostage Taking ;
• Trade of Syrian and Iraqi Antiquities ;
• Donations ;
• Crude Oil Smuggling ;
Evolutionary step
in global Jihadism ?
The Research Question
Does ISIS smuggle crude oil into the global oil
market…?
The 4 Shipping Markets
1. Freight ;
2. Sales & Purchase (2nd
hand ships) ;
3. Shipbuilding ;
4. Demolition ;
• Equalizer between Supply
(Tonnage) & Derived Demand
(Cargo) ;
• Can feature strong Gyrations ;
The Baltic Stock Exchange
1. Independent source
of Maritime Market
Information ;
2. Headquartered in
London, with regional
offices in Singapore,
Shanghai and Athens ;
Source: The Baltic Stock Exchange, http://www.balticexchange.com, [April 2015]
Trade Route Description
Major M.E. Trade Routes of Crude Oil
1. BDTI TD 1: 280,000mt, Middle East Gulf to US
Gulf ;
2. BDTI TD 2: 260,000mt, Middle East Gulf to
Singapore ;
3. BDTI TD 3: 260,000mt, Middle East Gulf to
Japan ;
4. BDTI TD 8: 80,000mt, Crude and/or DPP Heat
135F, Kuwait to Singapore ;
5. BDTI TD 11, 80,000 Cross Mediterranean from
Baniyas, Syria ;
Syria - Baniyas
Baniyas
Freight, up to Sep. 2011 (business as usual)
BDTI ROUTE 11
Freight, Sep. 2011-July 2014 (Syrian war)
Modified BDTI ROUTE 11
Turkey - Ceyhan
Baniyas
Ceyhan
Modified Route 11:
Freight, July 2014-Feb. 2015 (rise of ISIS)
Modified BDTI
ROUTE 11
Linear Regression
% of BDTI ROUTE 11's Freight ‘explained’ by
Freights on the other 4 Major M.E. Trade Routes ;
up to Sep. 2011
(business as usual)
from Sep. 2011 until July 2014
(Syrian war)
from July 2014 until Feb. 2015
(rise of ISIS)
58%
22%
34%
De-coupling
Re-coupling
Modified BDTI ROUTE 11
Spike 1
Spike 2
Spike 3
Freight, July 2014-Feb. 2015 (rise of ISIS)
Period
Spike 1
Spike 2
Spike 3
fall of Syria’s largest oil
field, the Al-Omar, in the
hands of ISIS
Emerging Patterns - Timeline
10–21
July/2014
Timeline
Crude Oil
Price $/bar.
November
2014
Jan.–Feb.
2015
101 - 104
40 - 55
79 - 74
30 - 50
44 - 53
20 - 28
fierce fighting over control
of the Jhar and Mahr gas
fields
sustained US-led airstrikes
pounding ISIS strongholds
in Hawija east of Kirkuk
How Do They Do It…?
Kirkuk-Ceyhan Oil Pipeline
Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum Oil Pipeline
E 90
Prior to Conclusions: Remember the
Golden Rule of Statistical Analysis
Correlation does not mean Causation
Conclusions
1. This research is INCONCLUSIVE... It proves
NO ‘Smoking Gun’ case…
2. An Illicit Supply Chain of Crude Oil…
But it offers hints to…
3. Ultra-Cheap Smuggled Crude as a ‘Booster of
Derived Demand’… and as such…
4. A ‘cash-cow’, whenever ISIS is under military
pressure..!
Email:
george_kiourktsoglou@yahoo.com
Also on:

More Related Content

Featured

PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024
PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024
PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024
Neil Kimberley
 
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)
contently
 
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024
Albert Qian
 
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie InsightsSocial Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights
Kurio // The Social Media Age(ncy)
 
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024
Search Engine Journal
 
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary
SpeakerHub
 
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd
Clark Boyd
 
Getting into the tech field. what next
Getting into the tech field. what next Getting into the tech field. what next
Getting into the tech field. what next
Tessa Mero
 
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search Intent
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search IntentGoogle's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search Intent
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search Intent
Lily Ray
 
How to have difficult conversations
How to have difficult conversations How to have difficult conversations
How to have difficult conversations
Rajiv Jayarajah, MAppComm, ACC
 
Introduction to Data Science
Introduction to Data ScienceIntroduction to Data Science
Introduction to Data Science
Christy Abraham Joy
 
Time Management & Productivity - Best Practices
Time Management & Productivity -  Best PracticesTime Management & Productivity -  Best Practices
Time Management & Productivity - Best Practices
Vit Horky
 
The six step guide to practical project management
The six step guide to practical project managementThe six step guide to practical project management
The six step guide to practical project management
MindGenius
 
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
RachelPearson36
 
Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...
Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...
Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...
Applitools
 
12 Ways to Increase Your Influence at Work
12 Ways to Increase Your Influence at Work12 Ways to Increase Your Influence at Work
12 Ways to Increase Your Influence at Work
GetSmarter
 
ChatGPT webinar slides
ChatGPT webinar slidesChatGPT webinar slides
ChatGPT webinar slides
Alireza Esmikhani
 
More than Just Lines on a Map: Best Practices for U.S Bike Routes
More than Just Lines on a Map: Best Practices for U.S Bike RoutesMore than Just Lines on a Map: Best Practices for U.S Bike Routes
More than Just Lines on a Map: Best Practices for U.S Bike Routes
Project for Public Spaces & National Center for Biking and Walking
 
Ride the Storm: Navigating Through Unstable Periods / Katerina Rudko (Belka G...
Ride the Storm: Navigating Through Unstable Periods / Katerina Rudko (Belka G...Ride the Storm: Navigating Through Unstable Periods / Katerina Rudko (Belka G...
Ride the Storm: Navigating Through Unstable Periods / Katerina Rudko (Belka G...
DevGAMM Conference
 
Barbie - Brand Strategy Presentation
Barbie - Brand Strategy PresentationBarbie - Brand Strategy Presentation
Barbie - Brand Strategy Presentation
Erica Santiago
 

Featured (20)

PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024
PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024
PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024
 
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)
 
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024
 
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie InsightsSocial Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights
 
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024
 
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary
 
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd
 
Getting into the tech field. what next
Getting into the tech field. what next Getting into the tech field. what next
Getting into the tech field. what next
 
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search Intent
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search IntentGoogle's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search Intent
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search Intent
 
How to have difficult conversations
How to have difficult conversations How to have difficult conversations
How to have difficult conversations
 
Introduction to Data Science
Introduction to Data ScienceIntroduction to Data Science
Introduction to Data Science
 
Time Management & Productivity - Best Practices
Time Management & Productivity -  Best PracticesTime Management & Productivity -  Best Practices
Time Management & Productivity - Best Practices
 
The six step guide to practical project management
The six step guide to practical project managementThe six step guide to practical project management
The six step guide to practical project management
 
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
 
Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...
Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...
Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...
 
12 Ways to Increase Your Influence at Work
12 Ways to Increase Your Influence at Work12 Ways to Increase Your Influence at Work
12 Ways to Increase Your Influence at Work
 
ChatGPT webinar slides
ChatGPT webinar slidesChatGPT webinar slides
ChatGPT webinar slides
 
More than Just Lines on a Map: Best Practices for U.S Bike Routes
More than Just Lines on a Map: Best Practices for U.S Bike RoutesMore than Just Lines on a Map: Best Practices for U.S Bike Routes
More than Just Lines on a Map: Best Practices for U.S Bike Routes
 
Ride the Storm: Navigating Through Unstable Periods / Katerina Rudko (Belka G...
Ride the Storm: Navigating Through Unstable Periods / Katerina Rudko (Belka G...Ride the Storm: Navigating Through Unstable Periods / Katerina Rudko (Belka G...
Ride the Storm: Navigating Through Unstable Periods / Katerina Rudko (Belka G...
 
Barbie - Brand Strategy Presentation
Barbie - Brand Strategy PresentationBarbie - Brand Strategy Presentation
Barbie - Brand Strategy Presentation
 

PRESENTATION

  • 1. ISIS and Smuggled Crude Oil (June 2015) Prepared by: Dr. Alec Coutroubis, Principal Lecturer and George Kiourktsoglou, Visiting Lecturer
  • 2. In Lieu of an Introduction • This research is INCONCLUSIVE ; • It NEITHER implies NOR corroborates any collusion between national governments or regional authorities and ISIS ;
  • 3. The Context (I) • Terrorist Organization ; • Stated goal: a caliphate merging parts of Iraq, Syria and Lebanon into one Islamic state-entity ; • Motley crew of Sunni fighters from Iraq’s local Al-Qaeda franchise and S. Hussein’s die-hard republican army. Appr. 3000 foreign fighters ; • Capital: Raqqa ;
  • 4. ISIS Map (as of March 2015) Source: New York Times, ‘Despite Tikrit Loss, ISIS Still Holds Large Swaths of Iraq‘, http://goo.gl/FNRdwJ, [upd. April 2015]
  • 5. The Context (II): the Financial Means • Extortion ; • Crime Syndication ; • Hostage Taking ; • Trade of Syrian and Iraqi Antiquities ; • Donations ; • Crude Oil Smuggling ; Evolutionary step in global Jihadism ?
  • 6. The Research Question Does ISIS smuggle crude oil into the global oil market…?
  • 7. The 4 Shipping Markets 1. Freight ; 2. Sales & Purchase (2nd hand ships) ; 3. Shipbuilding ; 4. Demolition ; • Equalizer between Supply (Tonnage) & Derived Demand (Cargo) ; • Can feature strong Gyrations ;
  • 8. The Baltic Stock Exchange 1. Independent source of Maritime Market Information ; 2. Headquartered in London, with regional offices in Singapore, Shanghai and Athens ; Source: The Baltic Stock Exchange, http://www.balticexchange.com, [April 2015]
  • 10. Major M.E. Trade Routes of Crude Oil 1. BDTI TD 1: 280,000mt, Middle East Gulf to US Gulf ; 2. BDTI TD 2: 260,000mt, Middle East Gulf to Singapore ; 3. BDTI TD 3: 260,000mt, Middle East Gulf to Japan ; 4. BDTI TD 8: 80,000mt, Crude and/or DPP Heat 135F, Kuwait to Singapore ; 5. BDTI TD 11, 80,000 Cross Mediterranean from Baniyas, Syria ;
  • 12. Freight, up to Sep. 2011 (business as usual) BDTI ROUTE 11
  • 13. Freight, Sep. 2011-July 2014 (Syrian war) Modified BDTI ROUTE 11
  • 15. Freight, July 2014-Feb. 2015 (rise of ISIS) Modified BDTI ROUTE 11
  • 16. Linear Regression % of BDTI ROUTE 11's Freight ‘explained’ by Freights on the other 4 Major M.E. Trade Routes ; up to Sep. 2011 (business as usual) from Sep. 2011 until July 2014 (Syrian war) from July 2014 until Feb. 2015 (rise of ISIS) 58% 22% 34% De-coupling Re-coupling
  • 17. Modified BDTI ROUTE 11 Spike 1 Spike 2 Spike 3 Freight, July 2014-Feb. 2015 (rise of ISIS)
  • 18. Period Spike 1 Spike 2 Spike 3 fall of Syria’s largest oil field, the Al-Omar, in the hands of ISIS Emerging Patterns - Timeline 10–21 July/2014 Timeline Crude Oil Price $/bar. November 2014 Jan.–Feb. 2015 101 - 104 40 - 55 79 - 74 30 - 50 44 - 53 20 - 28 fierce fighting over control of the Jhar and Mahr gas fields sustained US-led airstrikes pounding ISIS strongholds in Hawija east of Kirkuk
  • 19. How Do They Do It…? Kirkuk-Ceyhan Oil Pipeline Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum Oil Pipeline E 90
  • 20. Prior to Conclusions: Remember the Golden Rule of Statistical Analysis Correlation does not mean Causation
  • 21. Conclusions 1. This research is INCONCLUSIVE... It proves NO ‘Smoking Gun’ case… 2. An Illicit Supply Chain of Crude Oil… But it offers hints to… 3. Ultra-Cheap Smuggled Crude as a ‘Booster of Derived Demand’… and as such… 4. A ‘cash-cow’, whenever ISIS is under military pressure..!