Dear Fellow Investor: I have entered the asset management business.  My company, ARL Advisers, LLC, is a registered investment advisory in the State of Kentucky, and I am seeking your business. With all the options out there, why consider what I have to offer? First, I like to think that what I do is unique, but not special.  I will not be selling you hype or the latest and greatest.  My methodology is driven by my own research and the data, and all investing decisions are objective.  Second, my market edge is the ability to use my computer, and I level the playing field even more by investing in markets not companies.  Third,  I put a great emphasis on risk management as it is one of the few aspects of the markets that I can control.  Please take 15 minutes to review my presentation.  Here I outline my approach to the markets, and the types of portfolios that we customize for our clients.  More importantly, you will understand what I have been doing for the past 10 years of my life, and I hope you will come away with the notion that I am committed to providing you with the best service possible. As you review the material, ask yourself these three questions: 1) what was my financial plan for the past 10 years?; 2) how will I navigate the markets in the next 10 years?; 3) what is my plan to capture new opportunities and reduce risks in the future?  I don’t have a crystal ball nor do I need one.  However, I do have a plan and a methodology that should capture the major themes.  My emphasis is on a disciplined strategy.  In essence, I am offering highly stylized, institutional quality portfolios but without the churn of excessive trading and without the high fees. I look forward to talking to you soon, and thank you for your time. Guy “ See why we are different.” [email_address] click here for next slide
Key Points strategic asset allocation is superior to passive asset allocation strategic asset allocation produces consistent returns while protecting against losses ARL Advisers, LLC is replicating a strategy that is commonly employed by major hedge funds and endowments click here for next slide
Key Points ARL Advisers, LLC uses proprietary models to allocate investment funds  toward asset classes with the highest potential for appreciation and away from asset classes with greater potential for loss funds are allocated across a breadth of alternative asset classes – you are not limited to stocks and bonds all models are quantitatively derived from fundamental and technical inputs click here for next slide
Key Points emphasis on a disciplined strategy emphasis on money management emphasis on risk management emphasis on investing  not  trading click here for next slide
INTRODUCTION goals suitability universe of assets click here for next slide
my goal is to make you money! is to invest for long-term returns while managing risk  is to outperform the broad stock markets over the full market cycle (peak-to-peak or trough-to-trough) with less risk than experienced by passive approaches click here for next slide
suitability intended for long-term investors following a disciplined saving and investing program  individual investors  institutional investors investors seeking growth of income and capital  preservation tax deferred or taxable accounts click here for next slide
universe of assets traditional US equity ETF’s Bond ETF’s Sector ETF’s non-traditional Foreign developed equity ETF’s Foreign emerging market equity ETF’s International Bond ETF’s REIT ETF’s Commodity ETF’s Dollar/ currency ETF’s click here for next slide
The Strategy Asset allocation  that is strategic, balanced, and targeted click here for next slide
the benefits of  passive  asset allocation are well known* asset allocation reduces portfolio volatility without sacrificing returns ability to profit in any economic environment *Gibson, Roger C.,  Asset Allocation: 4 th  Edition , (2008) Darst, David H.,  The Art of Asset Allocation: Principles and Investment Strategies For Any Market , Second Edition, (2008) Ferri, Richard A.,  All About Asset Allocation , (2005) Bernstein, William,  The Intelligent Asset Allocator: How To Build Your Portfolio To Maximize Returns and Minimize Risk  , (2000)  Swensen, David,  Unconventional Success, A Fundamental Approach To Personal Investment , (2005) Dalio, Ray, “Engineering Targeted Returns and Risk”, (2005) Merriman-Cohen, Jeff, “The Perfect Portfolio”, (2003) click here for next slide
then came 2008 when most major assets became highly correlated click here for next slide
A Better Way!!! click here for next slide
Step 1: strategic asset allocation tactical or strategic asset allocation  directs funds toward asset classes with the highest potential for appreciation and away from asset classes with greater potential for loss proprietary, quantitative models are utilized to generate buy and sell signals models utilize fundamental and technical inputs click here for next slide
Step 2: risk management risk management is achieved through a  balanced  portfolio that it is constructed from diversified, non-correlated assets the diversified, non-correlated assets and money management strategy will seek to mitigate risk without decreasing returns click here for next slide
Step 3: targeted returns each investor has their own level of acceptable risk and their own expectations for returns through the selection of different assets and the use of a money management strategy, the return/ risk level is  targeted  for each investor level of return correlates with level of risk click here for next slide
Portfolio Examples these are hypothetical portfolios based upon historical data commissions , trading slippage, and taxes are not considered for back testing purposes, portfolios may use index data click here for next slide
Conservative Portfolio Goal: earn return = to long term returns of SP500 with capital preservation Assets: SP500, Bonds, Utilities, Gold Allocation: SP500(25%), Bonds (30%), Gold (20%), Utilities (25%) Money Management: No rebalancing, go to cash if asset on sell signal When in cash, money earns interest at commercial paper rate  click here for next slide
Conservative Portfolio since November, 1991, this strategy had a CAGR of 8.09% $100,000 becomes $453,208 the maximum drawdown (loss) was 8.34% the strategy averaged 6 round trip trades per year the strategy was invested 100% only 25% of the time the strategy had only 1 or no investment position 33% of the time   click here for next slide
Conservative Portfolio : equity curve  v.  SP500 click here for next slide
Drawdown is the peak-to-trough decline (in percentage terms) of an investment, and it is measured from the time a retrenchment begins to when a new high is reached.  Drawdown is a measure of risk.
Conservative Portfolio: drawdown click here for next slide
Conservative Portfolio consistent returns capital preservation low volatility periods of high cash minimal churning click here for next slide
Broad Market Portfolio Goal: earn return > SP500 with significantly reduced volatility Assets: SP500 sector  ETF’s, REITs, Foreign Developed, Emerging Market, Treasury Bonds Allocation: based upon # of sectors/ assets  on buy signal Money Management: rebalance weekly if new buy signals  click here for next slide
Broad Market Portfolio since November, 2001, this strategy had a CAGR of 15.27% $100,000 becomes $430,312 the maximum drawdown (loss) was 10.58% the strategy averaged <50 round trip trades per year the strategy had > 75% of its funds invested 56% of the time the strategy was in 100% cash 26% of the time click here for next slide
Broad Market Portfolio: equity curve  v.  SP500 click here for next slide
click here for next slide Broad Market Portfolio: drawdown
Broad Market Portfolio broad exposure to domestic markets at the sector level exposure to emerging markets and developed foreign markets diversified bond exposure in times of market duress superior reward to risk minimal churning click here for next slide
Targeted Returns With multiple assets available and with various money management schemes, a portfolio can be designed to suit your needs Portfolios designed from conservative to aggressive Portfolios designed to be long and short the markets Portfolios designed to have high or low cash levels click here for next slide
On the use of models and back testing to “predict” the future: past performance does not ensure future results  there is no assurance that ARL Advisers, LLC will achieve its investment objectives however….  click here for next slide
you cannot understand the present if you don’t know what worked in the past  key to superior long-term returns is to take investment opportunities when the  evidence  suggests high return/risk tradeoffs  on average , and to avoid situations when the evidence suggests low return/risk tradeoffs  on average back testing puts an emphasis on a disciplined strategy and ensures the conviction to execute the strategy  click here for next slide
ARL Advisers, LLC: the service $50,000 minimum investment fees based on assets under management all funds held by 3 rd  party custodian daily access to account via internet monthly statements quarterly reports click here for next slide
Guy M. Lerner, MD  managing partner of ARL Advisers, LLC licensed investment adviser, Series 65, 2007 founder TheTechnicalTake blog, 2004 to present featured columnist with RealMoney.com and TheStreet.com, 2004 to 2006 routinely published in some of the most widely read financial publications marquee speaker at financial seminars for 20 years, has practiced as a pediatric anesthesiologist in some of the top universities and hospitals in the country Bachelor of Arts in Literature, University of Pennsylvania, 1981 Doctor of Medicine, University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, 1986 click here for next slide
ARL Advisers, LLC asset allocation  that is strategic, balanced, and targeted portfolio diversification through innovative strategies independent investment research discipline and conviction integrity leads to….. click here for next slide
Performance competitive risk adjusted investment returns ability to profit in any economic environment reduced portfolio volatility click here for next slide
Past performance is not an indication of future performance and there can be no assurance that ARL Investment Advisers, LLC will meet its investment objectives.  The information contained in this presentation is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of an offer to buy an interest in ARL Advisers LLC.  Any such offer or solicitation can be made only be means of a confidential private offering memorandum and only in those jurisdictions where permitted by law. click here for next slide
THIS DOCUMENT IS INTENDED SOLEY FOR USE BY FINANCIAL ADVISORS AND THEIR CLIENTS OR BONA FIDE PROSPECTS WHO ARE ACCREDITED INVESTORS.  THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED OR DISTRIBUTED, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, TO ANY OTHER PERSON NOR MAY IT BE USED IN PUBLIC SEMINARS, NEWSLETTERS OR ADVERTISEMENTS. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.  ALL DATA CONTAINED HEREIN HAS BEEN OBTAINED FROM RELIABLE SOURCES, HOWEVER ARL ADVISERS, LLC CANNOT BE REPONSIBLE FOR ERRORS AND OMISSIONS FROM SUCH SOURCES. THIS DOCUMENT IS NEITHER AN OFFER TO SELL NOR A SOLICITAION OF AN OFFER TO BUY UNITS OF LIMITED PARTNERSHIP INTERESTS IN THE ARL ADVISERS, LLC. AN OFFER OF SUCH INTEREST CAN BE MADE ONLY BY MEANS OF THE CONFIDENTIAL OFFERING MEMORANDUM. YOU AND YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION PERMITS YOU TO PARTICIPATE IN ARL ADVISERS, LLC. YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE RISKS IN THE FINANCIAL MARKETS AND OF INVESTING WITH ARL ADVISERS, LLC THE CONFIDENTIAL OFFERING MEMORANDA OF THE FUNDS CONTAIN A DESCRIPTION OF THE PRINCIPAL RISK FACTORS, EACH EXPENSE TO BE CHARGED TO THE FUNDS AND A STATEMENT OF THE AMOUNT, AS A PERCENTAGE RETURN AND DOLLAR AMOUNT, NECESSARY TO BREAK-EVEN (THAT IS, TO RECOVER THE AMOUNT OF YOUR INITIAL INVESTMENT). PROSPECTIVE INVESTORS WILL RECEIVE A DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT WHEN THEY ARE SOLICITED TO INVEST WITH ARL ADVISERS, LLC AND THAT CERTAIN RISK FACTORS BE HIGHLIGHTED. THEREFORE, YOU SHOULD ASK YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR OR THE GENERAL PARTNER FOR A COPY OF THE CONFIDENTIAL OFFERING MEMORANDUM AND STUDY IT CAREFULLY TO DETERMINE WHETHER SUCH AN INVSTMENT IS APPROPRIATE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.   click here for next slide
email :  [email_address] phone: 502 552 0018 mailing address: ARL Advisers, LLC 528 Barberry Lane Louisville, KY 40206 business hours: Monday – Friday, 8 a.m.  to 5:00 p.m.  EST websites: www.arladvisers.com www.thetechnicaltake.com
 

ARL Advisers presentation

  • 1.
    Dear Fellow Investor:I have entered the asset management business. My company, ARL Advisers, LLC, is a registered investment advisory in the State of Kentucky, and I am seeking your business. With all the options out there, why consider what I have to offer? First, I like to think that what I do is unique, but not special. I will not be selling you hype or the latest and greatest. My methodology is driven by my own research and the data, and all investing decisions are objective. Second, my market edge is the ability to use my computer, and I level the playing field even more by investing in markets not companies. Third, I put a great emphasis on risk management as it is one of the few aspects of the markets that I can control. Please take 15 minutes to review my presentation. Here I outline my approach to the markets, and the types of portfolios that we customize for our clients. More importantly, you will understand what I have been doing for the past 10 years of my life, and I hope you will come away with the notion that I am committed to providing you with the best service possible. As you review the material, ask yourself these three questions: 1) what was my financial plan for the past 10 years?; 2) how will I navigate the markets in the next 10 years?; 3) what is my plan to capture new opportunities and reduce risks in the future? I don’t have a crystal ball nor do I need one. However, I do have a plan and a methodology that should capture the major themes. My emphasis is on a disciplined strategy. In essence, I am offering highly stylized, institutional quality portfolios but without the churn of excessive trading and without the high fees. I look forward to talking to you soon, and thank you for your time. Guy “ See why we are different.” [email_address] click here for next slide
  • 2.
    Key Points strategicasset allocation is superior to passive asset allocation strategic asset allocation produces consistent returns while protecting against losses ARL Advisers, LLC is replicating a strategy that is commonly employed by major hedge funds and endowments click here for next slide
  • 3.
    Key Points ARLAdvisers, LLC uses proprietary models to allocate investment funds toward asset classes with the highest potential for appreciation and away from asset classes with greater potential for loss funds are allocated across a breadth of alternative asset classes – you are not limited to stocks and bonds all models are quantitatively derived from fundamental and technical inputs click here for next slide
  • 4.
    Key Points emphasison a disciplined strategy emphasis on money management emphasis on risk management emphasis on investing not trading click here for next slide
  • 5.
    INTRODUCTION goals suitabilityuniverse of assets click here for next slide
  • 6.
    my goal isto make you money! is to invest for long-term returns while managing risk is to outperform the broad stock markets over the full market cycle (peak-to-peak or trough-to-trough) with less risk than experienced by passive approaches click here for next slide
  • 7.
    suitability intended forlong-term investors following a disciplined saving and investing program individual investors institutional investors investors seeking growth of income and capital preservation tax deferred or taxable accounts click here for next slide
  • 8.
    universe of assetstraditional US equity ETF’s Bond ETF’s Sector ETF’s non-traditional Foreign developed equity ETF’s Foreign emerging market equity ETF’s International Bond ETF’s REIT ETF’s Commodity ETF’s Dollar/ currency ETF’s click here for next slide
  • 9.
    The Strategy Assetallocation that is strategic, balanced, and targeted click here for next slide
  • 10.
    the benefits of passive asset allocation are well known* asset allocation reduces portfolio volatility without sacrificing returns ability to profit in any economic environment *Gibson, Roger C., Asset Allocation: 4 th Edition , (2008) Darst, David H., The Art of Asset Allocation: Principles and Investment Strategies For Any Market , Second Edition, (2008) Ferri, Richard A., All About Asset Allocation , (2005) Bernstein, William, The Intelligent Asset Allocator: How To Build Your Portfolio To Maximize Returns and Minimize Risk , (2000) Swensen, David, Unconventional Success, A Fundamental Approach To Personal Investment , (2005) Dalio, Ray, “Engineering Targeted Returns and Risk”, (2005) Merriman-Cohen, Jeff, “The Perfect Portfolio”, (2003) click here for next slide
  • 11.
    then came 2008when most major assets became highly correlated click here for next slide
  • 12.
    A Better Way!!!click here for next slide
  • 13.
    Step 1: strategicasset allocation tactical or strategic asset allocation directs funds toward asset classes with the highest potential for appreciation and away from asset classes with greater potential for loss proprietary, quantitative models are utilized to generate buy and sell signals models utilize fundamental and technical inputs click here for next slide
  • 14.
    Step 2: riskmanagement risk management is achieved through a balanced portfolio that it is constructed from diversified, non-correlated assets the diversified, non-correlated assets and money management strategy will seek to mitigate risk without decreasing returns click here for next slide
  • 15.
    Step 3: targetedreturns each investor has their own level of acceptable risk and their own expectations for returns through the selection of different assets and the use of a money management strategy, the return/ risk level is targeted for each investor level of return correlates with level of risk click here for next slide
  • 16.
    Portfolio Examples theseare hypothetical portfolios based upon historical data commissions , trading slippage, and taxes are not considered for back testing purposes, portfolios may use index data click here for next slide
  • 17.
    Conservative Portfolio Goal:earn return = to long term returns of SP500 with capital preservation Assets: SP500, Bonds, Utilities, Gold Allocation: SP500(25%), Bonds (30%), Gold (20%), Utilities (25%) Money Management: No rebalancing, go to cash if asset on sell signal When in cash, money earns interest at commercial paper rate click here for next slide
  • 18.
    Conservative Portfolio sinceNovember, 1991, this strategy had a CAGR of 8.09% $100,000 becomes $453,208 the maximum drawdown (loss) was 8.34% the strategy averaged 6 round trip trades per year the strategy was invested 100% only 25% of the time the strategy had only 1 or no investment position 33% of the time click here for next slide
  • 19.
    Conservative Portfolio :equity curve v. SP500 click here for next slide
  • 20.
    Drawdown is thepeak-to-trough decline (in percentage terms) of an investment, and it is measured from the time a retrenchment begins to when a new high is reached.  Drawdown is a measure of risk.
  • 21.
    Conservative Portfolio: drawdownclick here for next slide
  • 22.
    Conservative Portfolio consistentreturns capital preservation low volatility periods of high cash minimal churning click here for next slide
  • 23.
    Broad Market PortfolioGoal: earn return > SP500 with significantly reduced volatility Assets: SP500 sector ETF’s, REITs, Foreign Developed, Emerging Market, Treasury Bonds Allocation: based upon # of sectors/ assets on buy signal Money Management: rebalance weekly if new buy signals click here for next slide
  • 24.
    Broad Market Portfoliosince November, 2001, this strategy had a CAGR of 15.27% $100,000 becomes $430,312 the maximum drawdown (loss) was 10.58% the strategy averaged <50 round trip trades per year the strategy had > 75% of its funds invested 56% of the time the strategy was in 100% cash 26% of the time click here for next slide
  • 25.
    Broad Market Portfolio:equity curve v. SP500 click here for next slide
  • 26.
    click here fornext slide Broad Market Portfolio: drawdown
  • 27.
    Broad Market Portfoliobroad exposure to domestic markets at the sector level exposure to emerging markets and developed foreign markets diversified bond exposure in times of market duress superior reward to risk minimal churning click here for next slide
  • 28.
    Targeted Returns Withmultiple assets available and with various money management schemes, a portfolio can be designed to suit your needs Portfolios designed from conservative to aggressive Portfolios designed to be long and short the markets Portfolios designed to have high or low cash levels click here for next slide
  • 29.
    On the useof models and back testing to “predict” the future: past performance does not ensure future results there is no assurance that ARL Advisers, LLC will achieve its investment objectives however…. click here for next slide
  • 30.
    you cannot understandthe present if you don’t know what worked in the past key to superior long-term returns is to take investment opportunities when the evidence suggests high return/risk tradeoffs  on average , and to avoid situations when the evidence suggests low return/risk tradeoffs  on average back testing puts an emphasis on a disciplined strategy and ensures the conviction to execute the strategy click here for next slide
  • 31.
    ARL Advisers, LLC:the service $50,000 minimum investment fees based on assets under management all funds held by 3 rd party custodian daily access to account via internet monthly statements quarterly reports click here for next slide
  • 32.
    Guy M. Lerner,MD managing partner of ARL Advisers, LLC licensed investment adviser, Series 65, 2007 founder TheTechnicalTake blog, 2004 to present featured columnist with RealMoney.com and TheStreet.com, 2004 to 2006 routinely published in some of the most widely read financial publications marquee speaker at financial seminars for 20 years, has practiced as a pediatric anesthesiologist in some of the top universities and hospitals in the country Bachelor of Arts in Literature, University of Pennsylvania, 1981 Doctor of Medicine, University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, 1986 click here for next slide
  • 33.
    ARL Advisers, LLCasset allocation that is strategic, balanced, and targeted portfolio diversification through innovative strategies independent investment research discipline and conviction integrity leads to….. click here for next slide
  • 34.
    Performance competitive riskadjusted investment returns ability to profit in any economic environment reduced portfolio volatility click here for next slide
  • 35.
    Past performance isnot an indication of future performance and there can be no assurance that ARL Investment Advisers, LLC will meet its investment objectives. The information contained in this presentation is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of an offer to buy an interest in ARL Advisers LLC. Any such offer or solicitation can be made only be means of a confidential private offering memorandum and only in those jurisdictions where permitted by law. click here for next slide
  • 36.
    THIS DOCUMENT ISINTENDED SOLEY FOR USE BY FINANCIAL ADVISORS AND THEIR CLIENTS OR BONA FIDE PROSPECTS WHO ARE ACCREDITED INVESTORS. THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED OR DISTRIBUTED, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, TO ANY OTHER PERSON NOR MAY IT BE USED IN PUBLIC SEMINARS, NEWSLETTERS OR ADVERTISEMENTS. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. ALL DATA CONTAINED HEREIN HAS BEEN OBTAINED FROM RELIABLE SOURCES, HOWEVER ARL ADVISERS, LLC CANNOT BE REPONSIBLE FOR ERRORS AND OMISSIONS FROM SUCH SOURCES. THIS DOCUMENT IS NEITHER AN OFFER TO SELL NOR A SOLICITAION OF AN OFFER TO BUY UNITS OF LIMITED PARTNERSHIP INTERESTS IN THE ARL ADVISERS, LLC. AN OFFER OF SUCH INTEREST CAN BE MADE ONLY BY MEANS OF THE CONFIDENTIAL OFFERING MEMORANDUM. YOU AND YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION PERMITS YOU TO PARTICIPATE IN ARL ADVISERS, LLC. YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE RISKS IN THE FINANCIAL MARKETS AND OF INVESTING WITH ARL ADVISERS, LLC THE CONFIDENTIAL OFFERING MEMORANDA OF THE FUNDS CONTAIN A DESCRIPTION OF THE PRINCIPAL RISK FACTORS, EACH EXPENSE TO BE CHARGED TO THE FUNDS AND A STATEMENT OF THE AMOUNT, AS A PERCENTAGE RETURN AND DOLLAR AMOUNT, NECESSARY TO BREAK-EVEN (THAT IS, TO RECOVER THE AMOUNT OF YOUR INITIAL INVESTMENT). PROSPECTIVE INVESTORS WILL RECEIVE A DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT WHEN THEY ARE SOLICITED TO INVEST WITH ARL ADVISERS, LLC AND THAT CERTAIN RISK FACTORS BE HIGHLIGHTED. THEREFORE, YOU SHOULD ASK YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR OR THE GENERAL PARTNER FOR A COPY OF THE CONFIDENTIAL OFFERING MEMORANDUM AND STUDY IT CAREFULLY TO DETERMINE WHETHER SUCH AN INVSTMENT IS APPROPRIATE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. click here for next slide
  • 37.
    email : [email_address] phone: 502 552 0018 mailing address: ARL Advisers, LLC 528 Barberry Lane Louisville, KY 40206 business hours: Monday – Friday, 8 a.m.  to 5:00 p.m.  EST websites: www.arladvisers.com www.thetechnicaltake.com
  • 38.