Population Estimates, Methods, Procedures & Local Govt
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This document discusses population estimates and projections for North Carolina municipalities and counties. It provides population data from 1970 to present and projections out to 2038. It summarizes population change from 2010 to 2018 for North Carolina and other states. It also discusses the roles and responsibilities of the US Census Bureau and North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management in producing population estimates used for planning and distributing state and federal funds. Accurate 2020 Census counts are important for producing reliable population estimates.
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Population Estimates, Methods, Procedures & Local Govt
- 1. Population Estimates: Methods, Procedures & Local Government Responsibilities Upper Coastal Plain Council of Governments Mike Cline, PhD State Demographer Office of State Budget & Management, Demographic & Economic Analysis Section March 12, 2019 Michael.Cline@osbm.nc.gov 1
- 2. 2 Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses; OSBM Population Projections, 2018 Vintage. 5.1 5.9 6.6 8.0 9.5 10.6 11.8 12.8 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2038 North Carolina Population, 1970 – 2010 and Projected Through 2038 Millions of People April 5, 2018 Office of State Budget & Management North Carolina Population Change – Historic and Projected
- 3. Population Estimate Change, 2010-2018 Geographic Area April 1, 2010 July 1, 2018 Numeric Percent United States 308,758,105 327,167,434 18,409,329 6.0 California 37,254,523 39,557,045 2,302,522 6.2 Texas 25,146,114 28,701,845 3,555,731 14.1 Florida 18,804,580 21,299,325 2,494,745 13.3 New York 19,378,124 19,542,209 164,085 0.8 Pennsylvania 12,702,873 12,807,060 104,187 0.8 Illinois 12,831,572 12,741,080 -90,492 -0.7 Ohio 11,536,757 11,689,442 152,685 1.3 Georgia 9,688,709 10,519,475 830,766 8.6 North Carolina 9,535,736 10,383,620 847,884 8.9 Michigan 9,884,117 9,995,915 111,798 1.1 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates, Vintage 2018. 3 North Carolina Population vs. Other States 9th Largest State at 10.4 Million 4th Largest Population Gain (848,000 people), April 2010 to July 2018
- 4. 10 Population Change - April 1, 2010 – July 1, 2017
- 5. Population Change, Upper Coastal Counties, 2010 - 2017 Total Population Population Change County April 2010 Estimate Base July 2017 Estimate Numeric Percent Edgecombe 56,545 53,156 -3,389 -6.0 Halifax 54,634 52,041 -2,593 -4.7 Nash 95,829 95,063 -766 -0.8 Northampton 22,101 20,908 -1,193 -5.4 Wilson 81,230 81,674 444 0.5 State 9,535,721 10,283,255 747,534 7.8 Source: North Carolina OSBM, Standard Population Estimates, Vintage 2017
- 6. 12 Projected Population Change, July 1, 2019 – July 1, 2029
- 7. Population Change, Upper Coastal Counties, 2019 - 2029 Total Population Population Change County July 2019 July 2029 Numeric Percent Edgecombe 52,849 51,319 -1,530 -2.9 Halifax 51,363 47,981 -3,382 -6.6 Nash 95,612 96,053 441 0.5 Northampton 20,628 19,265 -1,363 -6.6 Wilson 82,369 87,982 5,613 6.8 State 10,524,548 11,728,282 1,203,734 11.4 Source: North Carolina OSBM, Population Projections, Vintage 2018
- 8. 15 Average Population Size and Population Change by Municipality Size in 2010 5 of Every 8 Municipalities Gained Population from 2010 to 2017 Municipality Size Total Population Change Percent With: April 1, 2010 July 1, 2017 Numeric Percent Number Loss Growth 100,000+ 267,730 299,275 31,544 10.8 9 0.0 100.0 50,000-99,999 66,737 72,308 5,571 8.6 9 11.1 88.9 25,000-49,999 29,875 33,468 3,593 13.6 23 4.3 95.7 15,000-24,999 16,913 17,956 1,044 7.9 22 45.5 54.5 10,000-14,999 11,525 12,443 918 8.7 23 21.7 78.3 5,000-9,999 6,665 7,182 517 8.9 48 25.0 75.0 2,500-4,999 3,545 3,755 210 6.7 92 29.3 70.7 1,000-2,499 1,593 1,648 56 3.8 108 35.2 64.8 < 1,000 461 465 4 1.2 217 49.3 47.0 All 9,533 10,461 929 4.7 551 36.5 62.1 Source: North Carolina OSBM, Standard Population Estimates, Vintage 2017.
- 9. 16 Twenty Fastest Growing Municipalities, 2010-2017 Total Population Change Rank Municipality April 1, 2010 July 1, 2017 Numeric Percent 1 Rolesville 3,786 6,319 2,533 66.9 2 Bermuda Run 1,725 2,696 971 56.3 3 St. James 3,165 4,899 1,734 54.8 4 Fontana Dam 15 23 8 53.3 5 Harrisburg 11,526 16,877 5,351 46.4 6 Fuquay-Varina 17,937 25,548 7,611 42.4 7 Leland 13,527 18,893 5,366 39.7 8 Waxhaw 9,859 13,645 3,786 38.4 9 Stem 463 638 175 37.8 10 Morrisville 18,576 25,242 6,666 35.9 11 Holly Springs 24,661 32,472 7,811 31.7 12 Falcon 258 336 78 30.2 13 Holly Ridge 1,268 1,648 380 30.0 14 Elon 9,409 12,183 2,774 29.5 15 Apex 37,476 48,435 10,959 29.2 16 Shallotte 3,675 4,697 1,022 27.8 17 Pinehurst 13,124 16,754 3,630 27.7 18 Huntersville 46,773 59,494 12,721 27.2 19 Jamestown 3,382 4,286 904 26.7 20 Midland 3,073 3,890 817 26.6 Source: North Carolina OSBM, Standard Population Estimates, Vintage 2017.
- 10. 18 Twenty Largest Municipalities in 2017 Total Population Change Rank Municipality April 1, 2010 July 1, 2017 Numeric Percent 1 Charlotte 731,424 845,235 113,811 15.6 2 Raleigh 403,892 457,583 53,691 13.3 3 Greensboro 269,666 288,186 18,520 6.9 4 Durham 228,330 260,251 31,921 14.0 5 Winston-Salem 229,617 243,026 13,409 5.8 6 Fayetteville 200,564 207,583 7,019 3.5 7 Cary 135,234 159,006 23,772 17.6 8 Wilmington 106,476 121,150 14,674 13.8 9 High Point 104,371 111,454 7,083 6.8 10 Asheville 83,393 91,910 8,517 10.2 11 Concord 79,066 90,820 11,754 14.9 12 Greenville 84,554 89,226 4,672 5.5 13 Gastonia 71,741 75,919 4,178 5.8 14 Jacksonville 70,145 75,748 5,603 8.0 15 Chapel Hill 57,233 59,903 2,670 4.7 16 Huntersville 46,773 59,494 12,721 27.2 17 Rocky Mount 57,685 54,686 -2,999 -5.2 18 Burlington 50,042 53,067 3,025 6.0 19 Wilson 49,167 49,170 3 0.0 20 Apex 37,476 48,435 10,959 29.2 Source: North Carolina OSBM, Standard Population Estimates, Vintage 2016.
- 11. Population Change, Upper Coastal Area, 2010 - 2017 Geographic Area Total Population Change County Municipality April 2010 July 2017 Numeric Percent Northampton 22,101 20,908 -1,193 -5.4 Conway 836 834 -2 -0.2 Garysburg 1,057 1,006 -51 -4.8 Gaston 1,152 1,124 -28 -2.4 Jackson 513 479 -34 -6.6 Lasker 122 120 -2 -1.6 Rich Square 958 930 -28 -2.9 Seaboard 632 595 -37 -5.9 Severn 276 266 -10 -3.6 Woodland 809 755 -54 -6.7 Halifax 54,634 52,041 -2,593 -4.7 Enfield 2,532 2,453 -79 -3.1 Halifax 234 227 -7 -3.0 Hobgood 348 331 -17 -4.9 Littleton 674 641 -33 -4.9 Roanoke Rapids 15,754 14,952 -802 -5.1 Scotland Neck 2,059 1,946 -113 -5.5 Weldon 1,655 1,536 -119 -7.2
- 12. Population Change, Upper Coastal Area, 2010 - 2017 Geographic Area Total Population Change County Municipality April 2010 July 2017 Numeric Percent Edgecombe 56,545 53,156 -3,389 -6.0 Conetoe 294 272 -22 -7.5 Leggett 60 57 -3 -5.0 MacClesfield 471 442 -29 -6.2 Pinetops 1,374 1,271 -103 -7.5 Princeville 2,082 2,193 111 5.3 Rocky Mount(Part) 17,527 15,832 -1,695 -9.7 Sharpsburg(Part) 209 196 -13 -6.2 Speed 80 78 -2 -2.5 Tarboro 11,415 10,735 -680 -6.0 Whitakers(Part) 402 371 -31 -7.7 Nash 95,829 95,063 -766 -0.8 Bailey 569 539 -30 -5.3 Castalia 268 256 -12 -4.5 Dortches 935 991 56 6.0 Middlesex 822 816 -6 -0.7 Momeyer 224 216 -8 -3.6 Nashville 5,352 5,222 -130 -2.4 Red Oak 3,430 3,546 116 3.4 Rocky Mount(Part) 40,158 38,854 -1,304 -3.3 Sharpsburg(Part) 1,252 1,192 -60 -4.8 Spring Hope 1,320 1,316 -4 -0.3 Whitakers(Part) 342 328 -14 -4.1
- 13. Population Change, Upper Coastal Area, 2010 - 2017 Geographic Area Total Population Change County Municipality April 2010 July 2017 Numeric Percent Wilson 81,230 81,674 444 0.5 Black Creek 769 765 -4 -0.5 Elm City 1,298 1,256 -42 -3.2 Kenly(Part) 163 160 -3 -1.8 Lucama 1,108 1,146 38 3.4 Saratoga 408 407 -1 -0.3 Sharpsburg(Part) 563 557 -6 -1.1 Sims 282 304 22 7.8 Stantonsburg 784 773 -11 -1.4 Wilson 49,167 49,170 3 0.0
- 14. 22 Fiscal Impacts of the Census – State • Municipal State Street-Aid (Powell Bill) Allocations • 75% of funds ($110.5 Million) • Per Capita: $19.56 • Department of Revenue • Sales & Use Tax Distributions Using Per Capita Method: • $1.4 Billion • Per Capita: $184.67 OSBM Certified Population Estimates Require Accurate 2020 Census Count! Source: North Carolina Dept. of Transportation, 2018 North Carolina State Street-Aid Allocations to Municipalities ; North Carolina Dept. of Revenue, Collections for Month Ending Reports for 2017. $1.5 Billion in State Funds Distributed to Municipalities & Counties Estimated amount of funds distributed annually to North Carolina based upon OSBM certified population estimates (2 largest state revenue allocations).
- 15. 23 Counting and Estimating North Carolina Population Largest County: 1,074,596 Smallest County: 4,310 Total Population (2017): 10.3 Million In Municipalities: 5.8 Million (56%) In Unincorporated Areas: 4.5 Million (44%) 48,618 Sq. Miles Source: NC OSBM, 2017 County and Municipal Population Estimates Largest Incorporated City: 845,235 Smallest Incorporated Village: 23
- 16. • State of North Carolina – OSBM • Demographic Analysis • Advise & Assist Governor’s Office & State Agencies in Planning • Population Estimates • Certified Municipal & County Estimates • Standard/Revised County and Municipal Estimates • Population Projections • County Projections (20 Year Horizon) • Federal-State Cooperative for Population Estimates • Provide vital statistics and group quarters data to Census Bureau • Review & comment: • preliminary population estimates • input data for population estimates (e.g. housing unit estimates) • Assist with planning, review & promotion of Census 2020 State Demographer
- 17. 25 Municipal and County Population Estimates • Census Bureau • State, County, Incorporated Places, Subcounty Areas • Previous year and revised annual estimates • Estimates used to weight Census Bureau Surveys (i.e. ACS) • Estimates used by agencies for planning/statistical reporting • Estimates used to distribute various federal funds • State Demographer, Office of State Budget and Management • State, County, Municipalities, Subcounty Areas • Previous year certified, standard and revised estimates • Estimates used by other agencies for planning/statistical reporting • Estimates used by DOR, DOT and other agencies to distribute state funds Population Estimates Require Accurate 2020 Census Count! Estimates Used for Planning and to Distribute Funds Symptomatic indicators and trends estimate municipal and county populations annually.
- 18. March 14, 2019 26 Overview of Methods Employed - Boundaries Municipal Boundary Differences of Municipal (Incorporated Place) Population Estimates for July 1, 2017 Population Estimates Census Bureau NC Standard (& Revised) NC Certified Estimates Boundaries as of: January 1, 2017 July 1, 2017 July 1, 2018 Source: Census Bureau BAS Source: NC Demographic Information Survey
- 19. March 14, 2019 27 Overview of Methods Employed – CB / OSBM Differences Census Bureau North Carolina OSBM County Estimates Component Method (Administrative Records) Average of: (1) Adjusted Census Estimates (2) Ratio/Correlation for Household Population 0-64 (+ GQ + Census 65+) Municipal (Incorporated Place) Estimates Housing Unit Weighted Average of: (1) Constant Share (Rate of change same as county) (2) Partitioned Change (1) Core City (Boundary as of 2000) (2) Inner Edge (Area annexed from 2000-2010) (3) Outer Edge (Post 2010 Annexed Areas) (3) Housing Unit Shares GQ 1 Year Lag GQ Current Year
- 20. Census Bureau & State Demographer Key Dates March: County Estimates May: Place Estimates Housing Unit Estimates June: County ASRE Estimates (Age, Sex, Race, Ethnicity) December: State Estimates December: HU Estimates Review July: NC Demographic Information Survey End of August: Preliminary Municipal Estimates September 16th: Certified Municipal/County Estimates End of October: County ASRE Estimates & Projections September 10th(Deadline): Comments on Preliminary Estimates Census Bureau State Demographer June: Preliminary County Estimates Local Government Input Note: Contact State Demographer when challenging CB estimates michael.cline@osbm.nc.gov May: Update/Confirm Point of Contact APRIL
- 21. 30 North Carolina Demographic Information Survey (NCDiS) • http://ncds.osbm.nc.gov/ • Data collected from end of June through 3rd week in July • Annexation Survey (Municipalities Only) • New Annexations Since January 2010 • New Building Activity on Previously Reported Annexations • IMPORTANT FOR CERTIFIED ESTIMATES • New Construction & Mobile Home Survey • Supplement to Census Bureau Building Permit Survey • Group Quarters Survey • Verify Location, Name, Operations of Existing Facility • Indicate New or Missing Facilities • Provide Population Counts for Some Facilities
- 22. North Carolina Demographic information Survey http://ncds.osbm.nc.gov
- 23. Preliminary Population Estimate Letter (Late August)
- 24. 33 How to Review Estimates • Missing Annexation • New Annexation(s) with Occupied Housing = Certified AND Standard Estimate • Significant Deviation from Past Trends • Decline/Growth after Growth/Decline • Rapid Change after Slow/No Change • Difference Between Population Trend and Other Indicators • Building Permit Growth vs. Population Decline • University Dorm Population Increase vs. Population Decline • Review Estimates @ http://ncds.osbm.nc.gov • Constructive Comments • Municipalities Can Challenge Estimates After Certification (But Process is Limited) - See OSBM Budget Manual for Process https://www.osbm.nc.gov/state-budget-manual
- 25. 34 Population Projections (July 1, 2018 – July 1, 2038) • Forecast models of time series trends (1990-2017) • ARIMA or Exponential Smoothing • Total Population • Total Race Group • Total Hispanic Origin • Cohort-Component Model to “Age” population • 3-Year Average for fertility • Survival Rates from 2010 • Net Migration (Trend Based on Total – Expected) • Age-Specific Rates from 2000-2010 • Projection Contents • Total by Sex & Age (Single Years of Age, 0 – 99 and 100+) • Race by Sex & Age Groups (American Indian/Alaska Native, Asian, Black, White, Multi-Racial) • Total by Hispanic Origin (Total, White, Non-White)
- 26. Thank You! 35 Michael (Mike) E. Cline, State Demographer Economic & Demographic Analysis Section North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management Michael.Cline@osbm.nc.gov 919-807-4756 For Municipal & County Population Estimates and County Population Projections, See: https://www.osbm.nc.gov/facts-figures/demographics
Editor's Notes
- 48 Years ago this week – 1970 Census Pop ½ size that it is today (10.4 million) – 2018 CB
- Rank moved up from 10th in 2010. (surpassing Michigan – which moved down from 8th place) 13th fastest population growth (after DC, UT, TX, FL, CO, ND, NV, AZ, WA, ID, SC, OR, NC)
- Net Migration: 55% 1980s 63% 1990s 68% 2000s 64% 2010s
- 3 states lost pop: CT, WV, IL
- This deals with “flow of people” For people within NC now: Est.: 57% from NC 43% from elsewhere, including: 9% FB 8% Neighboring states 7% elsewhere in the South 5% NY 6% elsewhere in the North 6% Midwest 3% West
- Only 22 states and DC had positive net domestic migration
- 2019-2029 1, 11.4% Edgecombe -1,530 -2.9% Halifax -3,382 -6.6% Nash 441 0.5% Northampton -1,363 -6.6% Wilson 5,613 6.8%
- 5,764,267 People live in municipalities 56% of the population 59% of municipalities are < 2,500 76% are less than 5,000
- Some of these communities have experienced significant growth over the decade – growing by more than a quarter since 2010.
- Of course, many of those communities are smaller so the number of folks added to those communities is small compared to what has been added to some of our largest communities. The growth in the first four cities listed here accounted for 30% of the total growth in NC as a whole. More than half of all population growth occurred in these top 20 cities.
- Robeson, Hoke, Richmond Decennial Census Serves as “Ground Truth” to all subsequent population estimates and population projects produced by the OSBM. Annual estimates are used for allocation of various state fiscal resources to counties, municipalities and other local entities. An inaccurate count in 2020 for a local community will be perpetuated in all post-censal estimates (state or federal estimates). eventy‑five percent (75%) of the funds appropriated for cities and towns shall be distributed among the several eligible municipalities of the State in the percentage proportion that the population of each eligible municipality bears to the total population of all eligible municipalities according to the most recent annual estimates of population as certified to the Secretary of Revenue by the State Budget Officer. This annual estimation of population shall include increases in the population within the municipalities caused by annexations accomplished through July 1 of the calendar year in which these funds are distributed. Twenty‑five percent (25%) of said fund shall be distributed among the several eligible municipalities of the State in the percentage proportion that the mileage of public streets in each eligible municipality which does not form a part of the State highway system bears to the total mileage of the public streets in all eligible municipalities which do not constitute a part of the State highway system.
- So, what are some the challenges to an accurate count in NC? Our sheer size. As I mentioned, we are the 9th largest state – so there are lots of folks to count. But we also have a vast and diverse area of land to cover – almost 49,000 square miles (land area) (Contrast this to RI @ 1,034 Sq miles – slighltly larger than Robeson County @ 949 sq mi Our population is quite literally distributed throughout the state. Yes, we have many urban concentrations (shown in red), but we also have a fairly dense rural population. For instance, despite the image, Texas is fairly urban population. Where I grew up – in west Texas – there are ranchers whose next door neighbor is 5 or 10 miles away. That is not the case here in NC. This map shows municipalities in red and the black areas are dots. Each dot represents about 6 people – and as you can see, you can pretty much size the full outline of NC by just mapping our population. We also have a diversity of incorporated places (and I won’t mention those unincorporated). Our largest county – Mecklenburg is over 1 million people and our smallest – Tyrell is 4,310. Our largest city is Charlotte and our smallest village is Fontana Dam up in the mountains. Generally, larger communities – although in many cases faced with the challenges of a large and growing community – typically have professional staff – many whom have already provided some assistance in planning for 2020. At the other end of the spectrum – or those cities with less than 2,500 people – 325 communities that account for almost 60% of all of our incorporated communities – many having part time staff and/or staff stepping into many different roles. 551 Municipalities: 18 over 50k 33% of pop 3% of munies 58% of muni population 68 over 10k 14% of pop 12% of munies 25% of muni pop 140 over 2,500 7% of pop 25% of munies 12% of munipop 325 < 2,500 3% of pop 59% of munies 5% of munipop 2010 Pop Density: 196.1 per sq mile HU Density: 89.0 Urban: 1,367.2 / 604.8 URBANIZED AREA: 1,367.2 / 604.8 Rural: 73.5 / 35.0 Not IN A PLACE: 67.4 / 31.4 Rural, NOT IN MSA: 47/ 25.6 TEXAS: Pop Density: 96.3 per sq mile HU Density: 38.2 Urban: 2,435.3 / 946.8 URBANIZED AREA: 2,624.6 / 1015.1 Rural: 15.2 / 6.7 NOT IN A PLACE: 11.4 / 5.0 Rural, NOT IN MSA: 6.2 / 3.2
- May DOR – distribution of shared revenue DPI – estimated ADM numbers used to budget funds to public schools DHHS – different program planning DOT – transportation project decisions Local governments for planning purposes require more than one slide
- Robeson, Hoke, Richmond Decennial Census Serves as “Ground Truth” to all subsequent population estimates and population projects produced by the OSBM. Annual estimates are used for allocation of various state fiscal resources to counties, municipalities and other local entities. An inaccurate count in 2020 for a local community will be perpetuated in all post-censal estimates (state or federal estimates). eventy‑five percent (75%) of the funds appropriated for cities and towns shall be distributed among the several eligible municipalities of the State in the percentage proportion that the population of each eligible municipality bears to the total population of all eligible municipalities according to the most recent annual estimates of population as certified to the Secretary of Revenue by the State Budget Officer. This annual estimation of population shall include increases in the population within the municipalities caused by annexations accomplished through July 1 of the calendar year in which these funds are distributed. Twenty‑five percent (25%) of said fund shall be distributed among the several eligible municipalities of the State in the percentage proportion that the mileage of public streets in each eligible municipality which does not form a part of the State highway system bears to the total mileage of the public streets in all eligible municipalities which do not constitute a part of the State highway system.
- County model: 1) school enrollment 1st through 8th grade; 2) vehicle & truck registrations; 3) 3-year sum of births
- Moved from paper based system to online collection system in summer of 2017 POC sent e-mail with link and instructions on how to access Beginning 2018, POC will be able to see what was added in 2017.
- Keep in Mind: If you have new annexation W/O Hus, there will only be 1 estimate There may be justifiable reason why trends deviate from past: Reflect actual trends Revision in past estimates (updated to census estimates, inputs, etc.) Large Group Quarter (GQ) populations can cause year-to-year fluctuations Building permit data collected last year are included in this years estimates (BP survey is 1 year ahead) Missing inputs to NC Demographic Information Survey can effect results Missing annexations Not reporting new development on previously reported annexations No building / demolition permits reported Missing GQ facility